I just read the article on BB.com by Chris Brown "Factors in Luck's decision". In it he discusses four reasons why Luck might stay in school for the next year. Two factors are given by Albert Breer of NFL.com, and then Chris follows up with two more reasons. IMO the arguments are weak, and most importantly inconclusive.
First Breerclaims that those close to Luck think he will factor who is picking first this year into his decision. I dont see how that makes any sence as lets say we are the #1 pick, and he might not want to play in Buffalo, but how does he have any idea who will be the #1 pick next year. It could be Buffalo again. There might not be a season, and then who knows who would pick #1. It might be a team he dislikes even more. For that matter he might not be the #1 pick in 2012 as he could fall down the draft board. I never understood this logic if you are the #1 pick you are not going to go to a great team. In fact most #1 pick QB's go to teams that are struggling on offense. If anything this goes to our favor as Chan is showing what he can do with a bunch of no name undrafted rookie WR's a backup QB, and a young line with weak OT's. If I am Luck I am thinking I can do great things in this offense. There is a lot of upside in our offense compared to the teams that could be drafting him if he waits a year.
Second he mentions his dad could pull of an Eli Manning type trade. Really?? With whom would we pull off that trade with? I got nothing.
Then Chris steps in and says it could depend on what his current coach Jim Harbough does. He implies that Dallas is the only team looking for a head coach, and that he thinks it is likely that JH will stay at Stanford. OK so what. If JH stays that in no way implies that Luck would stay also. QB's leave there coaches every year if I am not mistaking, and if JH does get a new job then that could have a big effect on Luck wanting to leave.
Last of all he mentions location. He says he does not think it will be a big factor, but that Buffalo is relatively close to his dad. In fact only Pitt. and Cincy are closer. I dont know what differece it makes to Luck, but this one has to be in our favor.
What gets me about this whole story is he leaves out the main factors. Not a word about Luck already saying that he will finish his education, or the biggest factor of all MONEY!!! So let me finish the story for him and explain why I think he will be the #1 pick in the 2011 draft.
First like I said before money is the biggest factor here. We all agree that this kid is smart, and he values his education. So I am sure he knows that if he comes out this year he has a good chance of making 20-30 MILLION more in his first five years in the NFL then if he comes out in 2012 under an new CBA. Even a dumb kid could figure this one out. I am sure he will get plenty of this advice as he gets closer to the time of decision.
Secondly as I said earlier there is no guarantee that he would be the #1 pick in 2012. Lots of juniors go back to school to finish up, but not many when there is so much to loose. He will Know by the end of the year if he will be #1 this year or not, and if he is then his stock can only go down.
Last but not least is education. Education is important, and if he decides to do what he said he would do and finish his degree before he goes pro. then I will respect him for following through with what he has said. I will also have to give him the new title of "the dumbest smart guy in America". He can finish his degree any time he wants after he makes his 20 MILLION extra by putting it off a few years. Does he think that degree is going to help him evade would be tacklers running around the football field? Time wise he will have his degree within one year of when he finishes football, which is when he might first need it. Is the loss of the 20 Mil. worth that? I cant see how.
In conclusion I am in no way guaranteeing that Luck will come out this year, but I am saying I have read nothing yet that makes me think that he will be in school next year unless it is the school of hard knocks.