Why to not pick A J Green
by statcruncher on Dec 19, 2010 10:22 AM EST
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PrintI am a big fan of A J Green. Based on BPA strategy, when I saw he was probably going to be our first pick, I didnt like the idea. But then after more reading and watching him, I have developed the classic case of wanting the guy...
Mel Kiper, who we all hate, in his latest assessment said that this year Green not only has used his great size and speed but has become a great route runner as well... He could be the next Andre Johnson....
Remember, we didnt have a no.1 QB at the beginning of the season, let alone pre-season... now that Fitz will be a clear cut starter next season, he will get a full offseason of working with the no. 1s.... moreover, with his QB set, Chan will design more plays tailored to his personnel with Fitz in mind.... with spiller improving, imagine what our offense would be like next year if we have green and lee as wide outs, stevie in the slot, maybe a free agent TE like zach miller, and spiller/ jackson as a threat....
Now that I have hopefully sold some of you on Green, here's the kicker...
When I think of similar players like Andre and Calvin Johnson, Fitzgerald and all, the common theme seemed to be that they all play in poor to average teams, never strong teams... they sure score a lot but never achieve anything...
So, to test this theory I went and looked at all the draft since 1970 and saw what the first wide receiver off the board has achieved....
What I found was there are plenty of pro-bowlers, a few hall of famers and all-pros... But none of them, in 40 years, have won a superbowl with the team that drafted them.... and, there are just probably 2 of them who go on to win somewhere else... so almost all of them dont win superbowls...
Now there are 3 exceptions that I chose to discard... Here they are... Lynn Swann in 74 and Santonio Holmes in 2006 were 2 WRs who were the first WRs off the board... but Swann was picked 21st overall and holmes was picked 26th overall... We would be picking in the top 5 and we cant compare it to the 20s...
The only other WR who was picked in top 6 and won a superbowl with the team that drafted him was Torry Holt in 1999 for the Rams... But the problem is, he won the superbowl in his rookie year... the leading receiver that year was Isaac Bruce and then Marshall Faulk.... Holt definitely contributed, but I wouldnt call him the key receiving cog to win the superbowl...
So there you have it, the first WR off the board has never ever won a superbowl for the team that drafted him...
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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The only thing from keeping Carolina from taking him
is Andrew Luck. Plus he will never last past the Rams, depending on where they pick. I like the pick myself, because I don’t see Rosco or Lee Evans in a Bills uniform in two years and this is the perfect opportunitiy to pick up a premier WR. Why not take him, that will put the OT and OLB’s in perfect position for us to draft in the appropriate rounds.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
yes,
my mock would be
a j green
martez wilson, ilb/olb
jason pinkston, rt
in the first 3 rounds…. all i did in this post was provide some more junk information… interesting actually that no top WR in any draft has won a superbowl with the team that drafted him
by statcruncher on Dec 19, 2010 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Nix says he drafts BPA
“we like to pile players on players”
But with Lee, Stevie, Parrish and now Nelson, Jones & Roosevelt – it just seems difficult to imagine us drafting a WR
It seems to me that OLB or DE, like Bowers or Quinn would seem more appropriate but then again, the strength of our team right now is Fitz being able to make plays downfield and adding Green to the mix will only make it that much better for that much longer. I certainly can imagine Lee, Green & Johnson/Parrish and then maybe find a trade partner for Lee and get some extra picks in 2012, I certainly would not want to lose Nelson or Jones. Lets not forget Easley, a guy that showed some promise before getting injured.
I buy into the BPA approach and from everything i’ve read, this kid is the next Megatron – so go for it! We can trade one of the up & coming rookies for a later round pick. All I can say is that I am not expecting us to win next year either so getting the BPA seems like the best long term strategy for this team.
Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience
I know it is not always pertinent but
Roscoe and Lee are both 5’10" or less and weigh next to nothing. I would be keeping Evans and probably losing Rosco. He is becoming more one demensional and that is at WR. This is all about Green more than negatives about our current roster. So we don’t necessarily lose.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
I think the Bills would do well to keep Roscoe Parrish. Think how well he was doing before injury. Parrish is a unique talent. Something seems off with Evans, not sure what that is….obviously.
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
Current song recommendation: Ween "Mr. Richard Smoker"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Dec 20, 2010 9:20 AM EST up reply actions
I hate this pick
so, much like the Spiller pick, it will probably happen.
Do not argue with an idiot. He will drag you down to his level and
beat you with experience.
If the ship has turned a corner it’s probably still uncomfortably close to the iceberg. - Ron From NM
I know how you feel.
I hate it so much, it is almost the guaranteed pick.
Seems every time I really hate the idea of drafting a certain player, the Bills draft them.
I don’t want AJ Green just because we already have a bunch of promising WRs.
If we don’t get AJ Green, I bet the pick is Robert Quinn, I hate the idea of drafting him because I feel strongly he is gonna be a bust.
Kylesaurus Rex Williams Pro Bowl 2010
by The Buffalo Kid on Dec 19, 2010 7:59 PM EST up reply actions
Robert Quinn if he gets top 10 guaranteed money.
At least that is what I think.
I could live with AJ Green, but would rather have someone who isn’t a WR.
I absolutely hate the idea of drafting Robert Quinn, unless you could get him very late first, he wouldn’t be guaranteed enough money for a Maybin style retirement.
I like Von Miller, way more than Quinn.
Kylesaurus Rex Williams Pro Bowl 2010
by The Buffalo Kid on Dec 19, 2010 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
same here.
Im hoping that we trade up to get Von Miller in the late 1st or that he somehow falls to us in the 2nd (doubt it considering NE has the first pick of the 2nd round — no way he makes it past them at that pick).
Ryan Fitzpatrick -- Buffalo's new flavor at QB -- Diet Flutie
by NordicBillsfan on Dec 20, 2010 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
Hate the pick as well
Cam Newton! We need a quarterback of the future
cam newton is the worst option at no. 5
by statcruncher on Dec 19, 2010 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I’d take Locker or Mallett before Newton.
The Buffalo Bills, finding new and exciting ways to lose since January 8th, 2000.
by CanadianBillsFan on Dec 19, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Locker, maybe
Mallet, no way
"The Buffalo Bills have just exploded all over the Cincinnati Bangles"
-Steve Tasker-
Locker- Hell yea!
Mallet-no…only cause i hate Mallet
"Your favorite kind of cake can't be birthday cake, that's like saying your favorite kind of cereal if breakfast cereal."- Parks and Recreation
Hate the pick as well
Cam Newton! We need a quarterback of the future
barf
Ryan Fitzpatrick -- Buffalo's new flavor at QB -- Diet Flutie
by NordicBillsfan on Dec 19, 2010 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Whatever
Cam Newton will be a beast in the NFL
Your reasoning for this?
Locker is a much better prospect
People talk about Newton being a fast QB…well Locker is FASTER!!!!! So that argument is moot
Locker has a better arm and a much better football IQ(Locker runs 300+ plays at Washington, while Newton runs 12 plays at Auburn)
Locker is my pick for QB
"Your favorite kind of cake can't be birthday cake, that's like saying your favorite kind of cereal if breakfast cereal."- Parks and Recreation
Wait, how is locker a much better prospect than Cam Newton? I’d argue that were it not for the allegations he’s facing, Newton may very well be the the first QB taken in April. Yes, over even Luck.
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
Current song recommendation: Ween "Mr. Richard Smoker"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Dec 20, 2010 9:47 AM EST up reply actions
Locker plays in a pro style offense for the last two years.
Newton doesn’t.
Locker runs a pro style playbook.
Newton doesn’t.
There are lots of Heisman winners at QB, who couldn’t make the transition to the pros.
Kylesaurus Rex Williams Pro Bowl 2010
by The Buffalo Kid on Dec 20, 2010 9:16 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I’d be OK with Newton, kid is intriguing. All depends on what FO values. But wouldn’t really put Cam ahead of Locker. Wait till combines and then compare!
" All that 8-8 means for a team that needs a QB upgrade is your to good for your own good." Bob Dicesare.
by buffalobacker on Dec 20, 2010 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
im a fan of green just not in buffalo
Don’t get me wrong green is gonna be great I just think are wide outs are good enough to bypass green and pick other areas of need
by Gpluehri on Dec 19, 2010 11:54 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Depends on who comes off the board b4 him
Nix said he will stack players. Green is a potential difference maker. Very explosive, but not afraid of contact. Great body control, runs all the routes. Can go deep. Can run after the catch. Tall, good hands… Wouldn’t be a bad pick at all if they took him.
BPA over need
we are too far away to draft for need
Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience
so in a hypo situation
We get green which wideout are we not keeping to me everyone on the roster at the spot has earned another year everybody from evans to roosevelt has earned it
by Gpluehri on Dec 20, 2010 1:03 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
i would put easley and donald jones in practice squad…. i would keep green, evans, johnson, parrish, nelson…
now you may carry 6 WRs, then keep easley…. you may cut parrish and then keep both…
by statcruncher on Dec 20, 2010 4:54 AM EST up reply actions
Keep Evans, Johnson, Parrish, Nelson, Easley (because of his size and upside potential)
+ Green
Jones & Roosevelt to PS or trade
As much as I like what Roosevelt & Jones have done, they will never be a Megatron or Andre Johnson. I’m not sure we can pass-up the chance. I love Lee but what has he done for us lately? Sure he takes double coverage but for our X receiver he’s somewhat limited. He is and has always been a deep threat only guy, over the middle he is quite pedestrian.
I think when Nix said that we’d pile players on players, he was preparing us for exactly this type of situation.
Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience
only possible situation i can think of is
Trading evans as it seems he doesn’t want to be in buffalo. And I would take the rag tag no name under the radar receivers any day and truth of the matter is receivers are a dime a dozen every team in the nfl has their hot shot can’t miss guy on their squad but not a lot of them have a stunner of a linebacker or qb. Imo wide outs are only as good as your qb
by Gpluehri on Dec 20, 2010 2:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
The X must be able to
Stretch the field with blazing speed
And be able to make the catches
Lee is the primary reason why Stevie had such a great year. I don’t believe that Stevie is a #1 receiver, speed ain’t there. Look at Peerless Price, he was not a #1 receiver.
I think Lee needs to get more in-synch with Fitz, I think Chan has to find ways to put lee in a position to make plays and stop using him as a decoy. Otherwise, I agree let’s trade him.
But I still think that AJ is probably worth the pick – if he drops to us we either use his value to trade down or we take the BPA.
Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience
I also like Green.
However, he doesn’t fit a glaring need and CHIX have been doing pretty well with some under the radar WR talent. Need I remind everyone that Marcus Easley will be back next year, and still needs to be evaluated at the NFL level?
Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish
When both are healthy, both will be on the field and are tough to defend. Both are the same size as well actually similiar to smaller than the players defending him. I can see Green as a possiblility. I wouldn’t mind him if Roscoe was gone next year.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
Unfortunately, I think Lee Evans has become very easy for defenders to cover. It’s too bad, but I think when you take his deep route away, he’s a very average WR with very good hands.
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
Current song recommendation: Ween "Mr. Richard Smoker"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Dec 20, 2010 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
sort of a one trick pony
unfortunately ’cause I really like Lee.
The thing is that he does his job whether we target him or not, he normally draws double coverage which opens things up for everyone else. I suspect that he will get more opportunities next year as Stevie will command a bit more respect.
Still the fact remains that Lee does not do well over the middle, in traffic situations.
Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience
Patrick Peterson
Or Prince Akawamura would be ideal picks. We need help in the secondary. And there both elite prospects.
The player I would like least at #9 would be my sister’s cat, Captain Creamsicle. She does have a great work ethic and agility, but I’m really concerned that at 9 lbs., she’s too small to play safety in the NFL. She also bites way too often on play action and is easily distracted by someone waving string in the crowd. Lastly, her wonderlic score was pretty awful, answering "meow meow meow" for most of the questions- Dr. Brackish Okun
wha?
I refuse to believe we need secondary help. la la la la
by Mindbender14 on Dec 19, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
Actually
I refuse to believe we need secondary help
We do.
McGee and Flo aren’t getting younger.
And we should have resigned Jabari Greer, instead we let him go, and drafted Leodis, who could end up being a bust. He is so inconsistent, hard to tell which way Leodis ends up.
Kylesaurus Rex Williams Pro Bowl 2010
by The Buffalo Kid on Dec 19, 2010 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
think u missed the scarcasim in that post
I’m all for secondary help but it would help if we knew what kind of coverages the bills want from them from what I’ve seen its mostly man with a sprinkle of zone then all zone if we are to stay with zone then peterson shouldn’t be the pick someone like ros I dowling should be good but if were gonna man it up then peterson is the pick
by Gpluehri on Dec 20, 2010 1:06 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Just exaggerating
But using a top 10 pick on another skill position player this year would make my head explode. Nothing in sports makes me angrier than the term, “BPA”. Buffalo has limited resources to build a team; they’re in no position to draft toys (again).
"There's only one C.J. Spiller." -Buddy Nix
i pray we don’t take Prince, he’s not a lockdown corner imho. Watch film on youtube of Prince vs. J.blackmon
1pp,fairley,
2justin houston or BA DE
3 BA ilb
4 BPA, ras I dowling and BA OL
Fresnobillsfan
Prince's value
Lies in his versatility. He plays Corner well, and could probably play FS very well if slid over there.
The player I would like least at #9 would be my sister’s cat, Captain Creamsicle. She does have a great work ethic and agility, but I’m really concerned that at 9 lbs., she’s too small to play safety in the NFL. She also bites way too often on play action and is easily distracted by someone waving string in the crowd. Lastly, her wonderlic score was pretty awful, answering "meow meow meow" for most of the questions- Dr. Brackish Okun
I see what your saying, I just can’t ignore what i’ve seen from him, and i belive that he will drop to the mid to late first after the senior bowl and combine. Still praying we don’t take him.
Fresnobillsfan
by Frenobillsfan on Dec 19, 2010 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
13 games
and that was his only “poor” performance. Look at the other 12 games too. Nebraska D was designed to put Amukamara on an island and roll the rest elsewhere. I am a huge Husker fan and watched them all season. Prince deserves his ranking.
BTW I think Blackmon has a great future in NFL.
by MtJulietTNBillsFan on Dec 19, 2010 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
average to slightly above average player imho, i Just don’t see a lock down corner in Prince.
Fresnobillsfan
by Frenobillsfan on Dec 20, 2010 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
I told my buddy
That if we take Green or Newton w/ our #1 pick i’d become a Jets fan
I hope that doesn’t happen
"Your favorite kind of cake can't be birthday cake, that's like saying your favorite kind of cereal if breakfast cereal."- Parks and Recreation
Geeez … you were able to find something worse than suicide.
by hightower_mc on Dec 19, 2010 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
Worse than suicide?
Being a fan of a winning team?
Hmm…wel suicide must come rather easily to you then
;)
"Your favorite kind of cake can't be birthday cake, that's like saying your favorite kind of cereal if breakfast cereal."- Parks and Recreation
by atlantalove on Dec 20, 2010 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Another reason not to take Green.............
He won’t be available. Beating Miami pretty much decides that the Bills draft a DE with the first pick.
nope, only now it makes more sense to draft an olb or even locker…. not another de
by statcruncher on Dec 19, 2010 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
6th pick atm. May have the pick of the litter as far as Dlineman go. I’d rather see Patrick Peterson in a bills uni next season above most other first round prospects, if he’s on the board when we pick, he will be the BPA and a need. I don’t think he gets past Detroit but who knows. He’s a shutdown corner and another option to return kicks, not that we need another one. As far as DL goes, I think fairley is the best of them, and would be a good pick for us.He is relentless and mean, a great combination, not to mention fast and strong. There is only 1 LB to consider in the top 10, Von MIller, and he’s a little small for a 3-4
No matter how it goes, I trust our FO will make the right pick.
Fresnobillsfan
there is no choice
No matter how it goes, I trust our FO will make the right pick.
our team’s faith is in their capable hands.
Chan has EARNED my respect. I wasn’t too keen on him when they signed him but I must say that he has impressed me this year. His ability to coach men is impressive. His ability to manage a game is impressive. His ability to make in-game adjustments is impressive. His ability to game plan and call a game is impressive. He has taken a bunch of “no names” and put them in a position to be competitive. So in the end I was wrong about Chan Gailey and I am quite happy to have him coaching our team.
Buddy has also impressed me by a few things he’s done. His choices were not always the best like signing Cornell Green but then again, we had just been dealt a blow with the sudden announcement from Butler. What I like about him is his decisiveness. He doesn’t hesitate to pull the trigger when he believes it’s the right thing. He also is not affraid to pull the plug either, I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many guys sent to IR, which is the best way to let the young guys develop. Buddy’s best decision so far, he brought us Chan Gailey. What I like the most about Nix is that he seems to have a plan and he sticks to it.
I trust both Nix and Gailey to make the best pick and I fully expect it to be the BPA, whether it fills a need or not is left to be seen but it doesn’t matter because I trust these guys know what they are doing. If they decide to pile on talent on talent, they’ll find a way to trade and get something somewhere else.
In Chix we trust! Go Bills!
Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience
The AFC would fear the Bills
AJ Green would be a great choice at number one pick. He plays with a chip on his shoulder, which will make him more dangerous. Great hands, good height, and not afraid to catch the ball in the middle of traffic. If not, the Bills should draft defensive lineman, shut down cornerback, inside linebacker, a massive right tackle, and a pulling guard. Nix and Gailey are having fun with practice squad castoffs; keep up the good work, I am looking foward to April’s Draft.
Nick Fairley
is who “Walters” has us taking (for now).DE. don’t know much about him, but ANY DE has gotta be better than Maybin…Right?
"This is what happens Larry!, This is what happens! "-Walter Sobchak" "Did we give up when the germans bombed pearl harbor!!??"-John Belushi
by BigEasyBillsKrewe on Dec 21, 2010 1:55 AM EST reply actions
dude
maybin is not a DE anymore… fairley is not a 4-3 DE… maybin is an OLB and fairley is a 3-4 DE… and we picked 2 defensive line in the first 3 rounds last year already… troup and carrington
i would hate if we picked another DE in the first 3 rounds…
by statcruncher on Dec 21, 2010 7:24 AM EST up reply actions
My point exactly
I didn’t say I agreed. I also know that maybin plays OLB. Actually, when I brought it up as an idea last year, everyone thought I was crazy.
"This is what happens Larry!, This is what happens! "-Walter Sobchak" "Did we give up when the germans bombed pearl harbor!!??"-John Belushi
by BigEasyBillsKrewe on Dec 21, 2010 11:26 PM EST up reply actions
I will. Guess you"re saying he's alright?
"This is what happens Larry!, This is what happens! "-Walter Sobchak" "Did we give up when the germans bombed pearl harbor!!??"-John Belushi
by BigEasyBillsKrewe on Dec 21, 2010 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
Fairley is a monster is what i’m saying, he’s only been like that this year, but he has been a monster all year.
Fresnobillsfan
by Frenobillsfan on Dec 22, 2010 2:44 AM EST up reply actions
AJ Green
Unquestionably the best WR in the draft, but 1st round WR’s have an obscene bust rate. I forget who wrote it but someone recently stated that there’s probably a 10% difference in talent between a 1st round reciever and an undrafted one. WR’s have a really high learning curve with options etc… and the motivation difference between a first-round pick and an undrafted guy more than makes up for it. Best example being what Williams is doing in Seattle. There’s a lot of time between now and the draft, but since Luck won’t be there, I say draft a lineman, or if someone emerges like crazy a LB
by Nick Holt on Dec 21, 2010 2:15 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
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