The case for Ryan Fitzpatrick over rounds 1-5 of the 2010 draft

I am sure you will get some critics regarding your research. If you do, don’t take it perosnal fact are facts and should be corrected. This is probably one of the more definative analysis I have read here. We have had some good ones. You did alot of work great job. Very informative and educational.

Great fanpost that’s how its done. An engaging and thought provoking read. Although if your analysis is right buddy nix already took a 6-7 th round qb in his first draft with levi brown so we shouldn’t draft a qb at all. Recd though I’d still take luck if he’s available

Seems like you put in quite a bit of research but I gotta disagree. I still feel like if you don’t have a franchise QB or believe there is a franchise QB there where you draft you take him. I also made a post about an article arguing against this point:

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2010/12/17/1883231/now-is-the-time-for-qb-of-the-future

So to each his own I guess…I still feel like if we believe Luck, Locker, Mallett, or Newton are going to be dominant franchise QB’s we take them doesn’t matter which round. But you have a better chance of landing a franchise QB earlier than later, not that it can’t happen in the later rds, it’s just much harder to do.

Fantastic research. And even though I was already convinced that we may have found our guy in Fitzy (I honestly think that he might be our starter for the next 3-5 seasons), this convinced me even more. And what I love is how our offensive system is being built around him, the plays he can make and the type of blocking he needs. Notice how next to none of our plays are designed to take more than 3 seconds to set up, that`s by design. It`s all being built around Fitzy and I`m loving every minute of it.

really liked this piece it just may have convinced me even more that Fitzy seems to be our guy and we should concentrate our top picks on other positions

Odds of a QB drafted in the first round becoming a franchise quarterback are less than 25%.

Actually, according to your numbers, it’s exactly 25%. I think your numbers are a tad bit gerrymandered to make your point. You cut off franchise QBs at a rating of 88, which conveniently leaves off Daunte Culpepper at 87.8. Culpepper was one of the games elite players before he blew out his knee as well. Pre-injury Culpepper is obviously a franchise QB.

I think it’s unfair to use players whose careers were wrecked by injuries as part of an argument against drafting a QB. Yes, a rookie QB could possibly end up not working out because of a serious injury, but so could Fitz. Carson Palmer is another example of a franchise QB who had his career ruined. He had a QB rating of 77 as a rookie followed by seasons of 101, 94 and 87. He then had an elbow injury that was so serious that the doctors wanted him to have Tommy John surgery, but he decided to make as bad a career decision as possible and try to get his arm strength back through rest and rehab.

So, if you include those two, it’s 9 of 28 first round picks that are franchise guys. It’s also a bit convenient to start the year after Peyton Manning was drafted. And you could really swing things a little bit by picking any year with Druckenmiller busting in 1997, but Steve McNair and Kerry Collins in 1996, but Heath Shuler and Trent Dilfer in 1995, etc….

For the sake of the argument, let’s throw Manning and Leaf from 1998 in and it’s 10 of 30 are franchise guys. To really push my argument, Drew Brees was the 32nd pick of the draft. The first round isn’t exactly the best statistical cut off point anyways. Top 32 picks is really arbitrary. But I think it’s fair to include Brees since he was taken with the same pick as Patrick Ramsey (who is included) and the only other QB taken in the 30s was career still TBD Kevin Kolb. So, if you’re looking at a list of all the QBs taken in the time frame in order of which pick they were taken with, the natural cutoff would be after Brees and not after Ramsey. That’s 11 of 31.

I also wouldn’t bet against Jay Cutler still. He’s got one bad year and then a career QB rating of about 88. In offense with a similar amount of talent, I think he’s having a better year than Fitz and the only statistical reason that he isn’t a good QB are INTs (unlike Fitz who is a poor statistical QB in every efficiency stat while being decent in INTs and unsustainably good in TDs). This is all obviously gerrymandering in the opposite direction, but if you take Cutler off the list entirely, then it’s 11 of 30 QBs for almost a 37% success rate.

Observation #2: You are much more likely to uncover a diamond in the rough in rounds 6-7 as you are in rounds 2-5

That has to be some kind of sample size problem with so few non-first round QBs having success. You can’t actually believe that a QB drafted in the 7th round is more likely to have a successful NFL career than a QB drafted in the 4th round. What you really learn from those numbers is that the odds of hitting on a QB only marginally go down from round to round after the first 30-50 picks.

The QB debate really comes down to a simple question. Are the Bills more likely to hit on a franchise QB in the first or second round and then use the 10 year window that creates to build a championship caliber team around that quarterback OR are they more likely to build one of the couple best rosters in the league to win with somebody like Fitz / get lucky and have an elite QB fall into their laps like a Kurt Warner situation? Which way are the Bills more likely to win a Super Bowl? Assuming the goal is to win a Super Bowl (which I’m not sure is actually a good assumption around here), that’s what this debate is all about.

Just FYI: cases like this DO NOT need to be made. It’s 100% certain, barring something left-field like an asteroid crushing his home, that Fitz is this team’s starter next year. What y’all need to come to grips with is that it doesn’t mean a damn thing when it comes to the way Buddy Nix attacks the draft. You need more than one good QB, folks.

I believe Chan and Buddy will seriously look at a QB in round 1. Fitz has made great use of his talents and abilities, which I believe are leadership, intelligence and toughness. Not having the benefit of being able to watch the team on TV, I can only catch highlights or online videos. I have seen Fitz throw on-target lasers through a crowd for TDs, and lame ducks right to defenders. Can the latter be eliminated as Fitz gets more PT? I don’t know, but if someone with superior physical abilities is available at our eventual draft position, perhaps Locker, I think we will make that selection. Locker needs a lot of work, but might become the QB everyone has hoped for over the past decade. Then again, Fitz might already be that guy. Regardless, you gotta love him!

Fitz has definitely earned my respect this year and so has Chan Gailey. I absolutely love the position that we are in because we can now be patient.

That being said, depending on where we pick, if the BPA is a QB then we should take him. I really want to believe that Fitz can be the guy but he has not done it for multiple years so lets wait and see before we anoint him our franchise guy. We should take the BPA when we are up at bat

Brohm was VERY highly regarding coming out of college. Levi Brown has some upside and is a great developmental #3 QB. If Fitz went down due to injury, how do you feel about Brohm stepping in? Would Brohm be better than a Locker or Mallet, now or over the long term? Matt Flynn has stepped in for Rodgers and played well. Building talent internally appears to be working for the Packers – why not us?

There are many needs for this team and lots of depth we can gather in the draft. In the 4-8 draft range, there is potentially a lockdown CB in Peterson or Amukamara. Also available may be a great DT in Fairley or even Quinn a fast DE from NC.

This constant draft talk is interesting (and somewhat repetitative) but this draft talk is prior to free agency as well as the player potential lockout. There is a lot to transpire between now and the draft. More likely questions before we address the draft is, who will be a free agent in the off-season? How will the CBA affect free agency? Will Merriman resign? If McNabb is released, do we sign McNabb and drop Brohm / Brown? Can we get some depth on the O-line in free agency? Who else is a free agent and what are the chances Gailey & Nix can get them to Buffalo?

Question though:

If only 25% of first rounders make it, what percentage of 2nd rounders make it? 3rd rounders? 4-7th rounders?

That’s the real comparison. Where are starting and franchise QB’s drafted or acquired. If you can show statistically that franchise QB’s are equally found in rounds 1-7, than I’m sold.

Other than that, I’m not. Here are the fully or nearly fully developed franchise QB’s in the NFL right now: Brady, Roethlisberger, Flacco, P.Manning, Schaub, Rivers, Romo, Vick, Cutler, Rodgers, Ryan, and Brees.

That’s 8 first rounders, a second rounder, a third rounder, a 6th rounder, and an undrafted player.

Of the players nearly at elite level, or young players on the cusp: Sanchez, Orton, Cassel, E. Manning, Stafford, Freeman, and Bradford. 5 of 7 are first rounders.

Of players that were elite and aren’t now, or are passable starters: Fitzpatrick, Palmer, Garrard, Collins, Campbell, McNabb, Favre, and Hasselbeck: 4 of 8 are first rounders.

Point: despite the 25% rating, where are all the elite QB’s from outside the first round? The cinderella story is nice, but franchise QB are drafted in the first round. Unless you can point stats that say they are drafted outside in 1st round in equal or near equal proportions, this argument doesn’t hold.

Rec’d.

You created some excellent food for thought.
I love hearing the five sides of the coin on here.

Great post, i can’t imagine how long it must have taken you to research this.

Rec’d.

but he’s only started 23 games. Doesn’t match your criteria.

The research you’ve done is fantastic and the article is a great discussion piece and well-analyzed, but that’s just the first thing that caught my eye. Good work here.

But I did not vote. You did not include OT or DL among your choices.

Definitely one of the best fan posts I’ve ever read! Keep posting sir :)

I love me some Fitzpatrick and there’s 0 chance he’s not the starter next year, but I still think that not drafting a QB is a mistake. They should NOT take Mallett, Locker, Luck et al. in the first round but they should take a flyer on someone from rounds 2-4. If, say, Christian Ponder falls down to the third – unlikely, but so was Clausen getting to the second – they might try him.