Draft order for 2011

With Cincinnati and Denver both winning this week, and Buffalo losing, the Bills are currently in 4th, but still alive for the 2nd overall pick. Carolina, of course, has locked up the first pick in the draft. If the Bills win next week, they could drop as low as 9th; I don't think they could be any better than 6th, but the calculations for a win are much more complicated since there are so many teams at 5-9 or 5-10 right now.

For the sake of maximizing the draft order, let's assume the Bills lose to the Jets next week. This leaves them at 4-12, and that means only three teams matter; Carolina with the first pick, the Broncos, and Bengals. The Broncos have a much easier strength of schedule, and it's not possible to catch them. However, Cincinnati is even with Buffalo, so it's possible to draft above them.

This leaves four possibilities:

1. Denver and Cincinnati both win; the Bills have the #2 pick after Carolina. The Bills would also pick second in the second round (34).
2. Denver loses; Cincinnati wins. The Bills have the #3 pick after Carolina and Denver, but would switch with Denver in the second round and still have pick 34.
3. Denver wins; Cincinnati loses. This is variable; the Bills would either pick 2 (and 35) or 3 (and 34). In order to get the #2 pick, all four results below need to occur.
4. Denver and Cincinnati both lose. Again, variable; the Bills would either pick 3 (and 35) or 4 (and 34). To get the #3 pick, only three of the four results need to occur.

There are only four games that matter for strength of schedule:

• Philadelphia beats Minnesota (Tuesday night)
• Oakland beats Kansas City
• Houston beats Jacksonville
• Indianapolis beats Tennessee

So, the teams to root for are Denver and Cincinnati, and then Philly, Oakland, Houston, and Indy if Cincinnati loses.