dzil's first ever stab at a mock Bills draft. v1.0
Never having attempted a mock draft before, I've decided that it's only fair to present myself for the same criticism that I so freely give. I also want to thank Brian(even if he considers me to be a troll:-)) and the rest of the mods for maintaining this most excellent forum.
As I began to contemplate the Bills best possible draft choices, I was convinced that the proper method would be to combine Best Player Available status with Team Needs. Considering the fact that our team has no shortage of needs, I figured nailing down great player choices should be fairly straight forward. Unfortunately, every other team(with the possible exception of Al Davis) has the same idea. Turns out it's not as easy as it might seem.
By now, most of us are aware of new Head Coach Chan Gailey's proclivity to pound the rock first, along with his past success with getting decent production from mediocre quarterbacks. This knowledge is a big help in determining needs and existing serviceable assets on offense.
At this point, without our yet to be named defensive coordinator on board, we can only assume what the 2010 Bills defensive scheme might be. For the purpose of this mock, I will subscribe to the popular idea that the team will utilize a 3-4 style defense.
I've also decided to be consistent with General Manager Buddy Nix' wishes to build from the draft. The lone substantial exception to this would be the signing of a veteran quarterback. While maybe not absolutely necessary, it would certainly seem advisable.
On to the nitty gritty, after the jump.
First off, I've got a convoluted proposal that sounds crazy, but just might fly. ..
Kyle Williams, Trent Edwards and Roscoe Parrish to Tampa Bay for their round 2 pick and quarterback Byron Leftwich - While one of the only bright spots on the Bills 2009 D line, Kyle Williams likely doesn't transition well into the new 3-4 scheme. With the Bucs apparently reverting back to a 4-3 defense, the addition of Pro-Bowl alternate Williams would be a certain upgrade to their interior line. Trent Edward's 5-1 start in 2008 was also his only season with Alex VanPelt as his full-time quarterbacks coach. Reuniting them in that same capacity in Tampa may make sense to the Bucs. They probably have no use for Roscoe, but who does? Meanwhile, we add Byron Leftwich to the QB training camp battle.
Buffalo's number 2 pick along with Tampa's acquired number 2 pick plus George Wilson to the Giants for their number 1 pick - The Giants desperately need help at Strong Safety and the Bills will certainly return Bryan Scott to his proper Strong Safety position behind Donte Whitner. Thanks to biffalobill's "Draft Pick Value Chart", I know this is a value move for the Giants and it gets the Bills an upgrade BPA in an area of need.
Here we go, on to the Draft:
Round 1 (9) - LT Anthony Davis, Rutgers, 6'6 325. Probably the most well-rounded, NFL-ready LT available at number 9 in the first round. Subsequent alternates if he's gone would be Okung followed by Bulaga.
Round 1 (15, from NYG) - NT Dan Williams, Tennessee, 6'2 329. If not for his Senior Bowl domination, Williams may well have fallen to us in round 2. Regardless, the man will be a franchise NT in the 3-4 system. Well worth the TB/NYG horse trading IMO.
Round 2 (41, to NYG) - If above deal can't be completed, then - NT Cam Thomas, North Carolina, 6'4 331. Maybe a bit of a reach at this draft position, but game-ready 3-4 Nose Tackles are scarce in this years draft. In this case, I will be sending George Wilson to the Giants in exchange for rights to David Carr to be a contestant in the Bills QB Gong Show.
Round 3 (72) - OLB Eric Norwood, South Georgia, 6'1 246. Norwood is probably the best combination of versatility, speed and durability of all this years Linebacker prospects. a four year player who has never missed a single game. He's suited to play either ILB or rush OLB effectively, a useful feature as the Bills attempt to transition existing personnel into the 3-4 scheme.
Round 4 (104) - WR Jacoby Ford, Clemson, 5'9 181. With his legitimate 4.3 speed, Ford will be able to separate from virtually anybody in man coverage. He's an outstanding kick-returner and has passing experience for use in the wildcat.
Round 5 (136) - OT/G Jared Veldheer, Hillsdale, 6'8 315. Athletic freak. Able to dominate opponents at both guard and tackle positions. 4.8 speed makes this guy a truly unique offensive line specimen. He's from a DII school, but after the combine he may well end up a couple rounds higher than here. Would make a great RT for the Bills
Round 6 (166) - OG Marshall Newhouse, TCU, 6'3 326. Played LT in college, projects as NFL G or RT. Very strong player with good hands and a solid anchor. An excellent depth addition and lessens the need to hasten Eric Wood's return.
Round 6 (184) - TE Nate Byham, Pitt, 6'4 268. Outstanding blocking Tight End that can also run and catch the ball. Could also be used to replace flash McIntyre at FB. Plus, Byham's the cousin of fellow Rumbler TheAfghanTwilight!!!
Round 7 (195) - QB Tim Hiller, Western Michigan, 6'5 234. Has size and strength to be an NFL QB. Unlike former Bills busts J.P. Losman and Rob Johnson, this guy actually has intelligence and held a 4.0 GPA all through college. 4 season QB rating average of 144.79. He's a developmental project with great upside potential and character.
Round 7 (201) - RB Deji Karim, Southern Illinois, 5'9 210. Compact, fast, powerful and elusive. Averaged 7.1 YPC, 130.3 YPG, and 30.9 on kick-off returns.
Well, there you have it folks. My apologies for the relatively short descriptions for these guys. Unfortunately, I didn't bookmark all the write-ups and stats that I reviewed whilst putting this together, but I guess that's what Google's for.
Thanks for reading this and feel free to fire away at it!
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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Well done!!!! I like the creative trade ideas....hope the Bills can pull it off. Assuming they can,
seems very solid from top to bottom. Address many of our needs and love that it is O and D line heavy.
One question. If we do get Williams are you still going to take Thomas or did you have another person in mind?
If we end up with Vick, T.O., Richie I., and Porter….that is really pushing the dbag density limit for one team.
If we get William’s, we lose our round 2 pick in the deal. so no Thomas.
most of my posts get deleted :(
got it...thanks
If we end up with Vick, T.O., Richie I., and Porter….that is really pushing the dbag density limit for one team.
Feedback
Not a fan of your first trade. It’s kind of similar to some of the hockey trades that get floated sometimes, where one team trades their spare parts and castoffs for the other teams valuable players. I like Kyle Williams, but the focus of the trade is Kyle Williams for Tampa’s #2. Tampa already has a Kyle Williams: Chris Hovan. Tampa wouldn’t do it.
David Carr is damaged goods. He’s Trent Edwards if Trent had two more seasons like 2009. Pass.
Second trade’s OK value wise. I don’t think the Giants trade down. My bet is they get on the Rolando McClain bandwagon and trade up.
Cam Thomas’ draft range isn’t that high, which you note. Big reach.
Shhh… stop talking about Veldheer. He’s a secret. He’ll also be gone way before round 5.
Other than that, it’s solid. Can’t go wrong with OT’s and NT’s.
figured Kyle Williams pro bowl alt status would make a difference. With Fewell as DC, maybe the Giants would give up their #1 for a combo of Kyle Williams, George Wilson and Reggie Corner?
definitely agree that Thomas is a reach at 41, why I’m desperately trying to trade up for Williams. This years draft really blows for getting a big 3-4 nose tackle.
most of my posts get deleted :(
I’m not sure if there’s anyone on the roster that’s worth a 1st round pick. Williams is a Pro Bowler is is a Chris Hovan type: high motor and produces, but needs another DT better that him to max out effectivenss. Wilson and Corner have no trade value in the draft.
Cam Thomas, Torell Troup and Kade Weston have NT potential, but none of them could start in 2010.
Isn't Hovan a lot older than Williams? I would think Williams has much more value.
If we end up with Vick, T.O., Richie I., and Porter….that is really pushing the dbag density limit for one team.
Hovan turns 32 soon
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
I think there are a lot of potential NT candidates this year
It’s just the majority of them won’t be anything more than backups/minor contributors in their first season
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Just remember, we are going to have 3 years before our second season of needing a badass NT. The lockout isn’t all that bad.
Huh?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
I think he’s assuming there will indeed be a lockout after next year. (something I highly doubt.)
I call it... The Avaslug!
I am the 1st and probably only official member of the David "Dr." Jones fanclub.
Syracuse Basketball 2010: Making Hoya's cry.
by UZ on Feb 3, 2010 3:38 AM EST up reply actions
Agree
Lots of mid-round developmental guys.
The only guys who could start in a 3-4 this year are Williams and Cody. Cody is pending the team because of his weight.
UFA market is slim too. Wilfork and Hampton don’t get to the market… they are too valuable to their current teams. Probably the same with Franklin and the 49ers. Really leaves Ryan Pickett as the top guy.
If a move to the 3-4 is made
and the Bills can somehow find a starting NT before the draft, I think they can afford to take a flier on a high upside guy in the mid rounds and another in the later rounds/UDFA’s….
Mid Rounds: Cam Thomas, Torell Troup, Kade Weston, Linval Joseph
Late Rounds: Travis Ivey, Jay Ross, Ekom Udofia, DeMarcus Granger, Al Woods, Martin Tevaseu
UDFA’s: Abe Koroma, Daniel Calvin….deepers sleepers: Trey Bryant, Darryl Jackson, Callahan Bright, Marques Slocum
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
isn't ferguson supposed to be available?
...so I guess now I root for chan gailey...
by JPH on Feb 4, 2010 3:11 AM EST up reply actions
Jason Ferguson?
Isn’t he planning on retiring?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Key
The key to a potential transition to the 3-4 is signing Ryan Pickett. I don’t think any of the other UFA NT’s are going to make it to or be available during the free agency period (early resigning and tags).
heh.
With Fewell as DC, maybe the Giants would give up their #1 for a combo of Kyle Williams, George Wilson and Reggie Corner?
im sure fewell is dying to bring in Bills players to pollute populate his defense.
...so I guess now I root for chan gailey...
by JPH on Feb 4, 2010 3:16 AM EST up reply actions
are you kidding?
William’s was the leagues leading Defensive Lineman(including DE’s!) with 66 tackles and 4 sacks in only 14 games. The Giant’s leading DT, Barry Cofield was 79th in the league with 35 tackles and 1 sack in 16 games.
Strong Safety George Wilson, in only 14 games(12 starts), was the leagues 6th ranked DB with 103 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 ints and 6 passes defended. The Giants are hurting for safeties, splitting time between Brown and Rouse.
Williams and Wilson would be huge upgrades for the Giants and Perry Fewell certainly knows it.
most of my posts get deleted :(
Kenny Phillips was hurt this year
I don’t think George Wilson would be an improvement or need for them.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
how about that?
Walter Football has the Bills taking Cam Thomas at #41. Vindication is mine!(for a day or two, anyway). They also have us taking Davis at #9 and Eric Norwood in the 4th(I had him in the 3rd, eh).
most of my posts get deleted :(
It's ok
although I don’t think that Kyle Williams trade is very realistic. Tampa has no need for Trent or Roscoe. They have Sammie Stroughter as a return guy/3rd WR.
If we were to switch to the 3-4, I like the creativity to get Dan Williams. I think I’d rather try to acquire a veteran and pick a NT in the 3rd/4th rounds.
Cam Thomas is a huge reach there. Just because he’s a big, fat guy doesn’t mean he’s a great player. He was not productive at UNC and it’s hard to envision him being anything more than a backup in the NFL. With that said, I wouldn’t be opposed to him in round 4 or 5 as that backup/developmental NT.
I like Jacoby Ford. That wouldn’t be a terrible pick, but if we’re going to add a speedy, undersized WR as a return man/backup WR, I think we can wait. Or hold onto Roscoe.
I think Norwood is going to struggle in the pros. He just doesn’t seem big or quick enough to me. He just seems like a situational pass rusher to me. He really needs to work on the 3-4 OLB skills that aren’t simply rushing the passer.
I like Byham as a blocker, but haven’t gotten up to speed on the others yet. I like your later round OL additions. They have upside, which is what you need to look for in those rounds.
Overall, not too shabby. I think I’d go elsewhere with some of the picks.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Tampa has no need for Trent or Roscoe. They have Sammie Stroughter as a return guy/3rd WR.
But Roscoe doesn’t play 3rd wide receiver. He plays 6th wide receiver. Do they have one of those?
...so I guess now I root for chan gailey...
by JPH on Feb 4, 2010 3:12 AM EST up reply actions
love the hiller pick!
i was checking him out the other day and he’s become my second favorite QB in this draft, and probably a better fit in buffalo than bradford.
Nice job!
I don’t think those trades are very realistic, but I like a lot of the draft picks you made.
Schmucks don't make it to the Pro Bowl... except Jason Peters!
by Run Thurmal Run! on Feb 2, 2010 11:31 PM EST reply actions
The problem I see is Eric Norwood probably won’t fall to 72. He is more likely to go in the late 30’s to the early 60’s. And he was the only LB. So I guess you would be looking to FA for LB’s.
Norwood would be a huge steal there, and I do like the emphasis on OL/DL.
a.k.a. Undee
Most scouts have Norwood going in round 3, a couple in 2 but but it’s anybody’s guess. Ultimately, the pick would be the BPA that fits a need. At round 3 there’s many needs left, no problem fitting BPA there. This draft has enough rush LB’s that I wouldn’t expect to be forced to go into the FA market to land a decent one in the early to mid rounds. Being flexible with picks along with having thorough and accurate prospect data is key to a successful draft.
most of my posts get deleted :(
Most scouts have Norwood going in round 3, a couple in 2 but but it’s anybody’s guess.
Actually, from my research, that’s backwards. While I saw one mock as high as early 30’s, the lowest I have seen anywhere is 64. I have seen more round two projections, but like you said, it’s anybody’s guess.
This draft has enough rush LB’s that I wouldn’t expect to be forced to go into the FA market to land a decent one in the early to mid rounds.This must mean you are not looking to bolster the middle through the draft?
a.k.a. Undee
Draft Countdown has Norwood at 91, Draftscout has him at 85 and Walter has him at 3-4.
Yes, now 3 more sites have him in the 50’s. The average of the 6 legitimate scouting sites that I used is currently 69.2. I have him at 72 in my mock. Rankings are getting updated every couple of days now, some players are moving up and others are sliding down. That’s the way it always is. Changes every day.
I don’t understand your “not looking to bolster the middle” comment. Please clarify that for me.
most of my posts get deleted :(
PITT
Im obviously a fan of the Byham selection! Although I would prefer to have Dickerson because he is more athletic receiving wise, I would gladly take a Panther on our team any day!
I expect Nelson to be the Bills primary receiving TE. I think Byham’s size is better suited for the role of blocking TE/FB. At the senior bowl, Dickerson turned out to be a good bit smaller than advertised. If we didn’t already have Nelson, I’d definitely be looking hard at Dickerson.
most of my posts get deleted :(
First – I like this draft. I really do.
Second – I don’t see it as realistic at all. 6 of the first 7 picks are lineman. Even the 8th pick, Byham, is a blocking type TE. Do we really see the Bills ignoring all other positions that way? A draft like this would go a long, long way to shoring up the trenches for years to come, I just don’t see it happening.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
actually 5 of the first 7, but who’s counting? I’m curious what other positions you see as immediate needs for the Bills.
most of my posts get deleted :(
I was counting Norwood as a DE/OLB pass rusher, so I counted him.
My needs other then O-line/D-line in no particular order:
QB (sorry Hiller and Leftwhich aren’t the answers)
RB
LB
WR
TE
basically an entire team.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
what abuot the our 2nd rounder
you mention using the tampa 2nd if the giants trade wouldnt work… but then what about the Other 2nd round pick in that trade??
or did i miss something
you're correct, sort of.
it’s a package deal. All or none. We make the Tampa/Giants swaps together or the deal doesn’t happen. I didn’t want to make it more confusing and far fetched than it already was, that’s all.
most of my posts get deleted :(
the trades are pure fantasy
never gonna happen…you can’t predict trades in a draft that far ahead and then plan a mock draft assuming that they’ll happen
if those trades don’t happen, the strategy in the draft changes…since they probably won’t happen…it’s hard for me to put a lot of stock in your mock
well ok
that’s why I still have my original 7 rounds played out without the deal. The Tampa/Giants swaps are clearly separated and explained as such. The original order is still there. The only thing it effects either way is who we get for a NT, that’s it.
most of my posts get deleted :(
i don't think any of this is actually possible
i don’’t think that there will be too much of this crearive trading for picks
i think there is a possibility of maybe one move due to our extra picks this year but not much more
good job though i like the thought behind it
"Hold ya chin up...nuh nuh nuh...gone" -Marshawn Lynch-
Good draft
I especially like the picks of Dan Williams, Tim Hiller and Jared Veldheer but I think all of them make sense and fill needs.
However, I’m not sure about the logic of the trades. I see your thinking, but not sure they would realistically come off. Not sure the Giants would value George Wilson that highly and I’m not sure why Tampa would want that batch of players.
Plus if we go 3-4 then Kyle is still a cheap and hopefully decent option at DE for us.
good 7th round pick
I go to SIUC and Karim is a very good back. The Bills should know more than other teams that good backs can come from smaller schools.
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