FanPost

Thoughts on the Bills' 3-4 Switch

I think Brian is spot on with his assessment that Buffalo cannot transition to a 3-4 completely this off-season. A switch to a 3-4 Over is a good interim move. George Edwards has been a 4-3 guy most of his career. However, his 3-4 time experience is with the Bullough-Fairbanks system. The key to this system is three big and very good two gap linemen. Buffalo can’t run this system right now. It’s going to take a while to build this defense.

Current Bills and how they fit the scheme
Kyle Williams
: He’s a tough fit for any 3-4 physically. He’s short and squatty, and best shooting gaps. He could fit as the NT in a 3-4 Over scheme (Jay Ratliff is 6-4/298). My bet is that Williams is the interim NT if Buddy Nix can’t find another NT. If he does find a NT, Williams could fit in as an end. While not the prototypical 5 technique end, Williams is the kind of gritty hard-nosed player that can’t be graded on measurables.

Marcus Stroud: There’s lots of talk that Stroud’s not a good fit. I don’t buy it. He’s got ideal height and great mass to play the strong-side 5-technique DE. Stroud isn’t a penetrator. His game has always been two-gap, and Edwards could pursue a hybrid look with the strong side end playing two gap. Weird, but you play to strengths. Stroud could play NT, but given his injury history, he may not last through the pounding.

Aaron Maybin: Great fit for the defense. Maybin really struggled against bigger OTs this year. Now he’s going to see less OTs and more backs and TEs. Maybin in a Ware-type role is perfect. He’s going to be set back initially (potentially) due to learning a new position, but the pass rushing moves are the same.

Aaron Schobel: He doesn’t have the hips to drop into coverage, so he needs to be used in a strict rush mode. That said, the article done recently by Football Outsiders on Schobel’s effectiveness can’t be overlooked. Schobel is the one guy that offenses must game play for. He’s a good fit for the hybrid rusher position. I anticipate he fills the role beyond expectations.

Paul Posluszny: He must play the weak side ILB position, and Edwards needs to do what he can to scheme to keep Posluszny clean to make plays. Posluszny needs to be observed this season closely… he could become a monster in a hybrid scheme where he’s free to run to the ball, or he could get lost in the trash most of the game, a la A.J. Hawk, and become ineffective.

Kawika Mitchell: Also a candidate for the weak side ILB position, or one of the OLB positions. Decent scheme fit with his size.

Spencer Johnson: 5 technique situational rusher. Could come up huge as a Jarvis Green type.

Chris Kelsay: Not going to be an OLB… way too stiff in the hips. He was at 280 under Gregg Williams and needs to go back to that size. Brett Keisel is 6-5/285 and was an effective rusher. That’s who Kelsay needs to become (situational rusher though).

UFA, Trade, and Draft Talk
Lots of posts on this blog about going to get Shawne Merriman or Joey Porter or Rolando McClain. While those are nice thoughts, they won’t make this defensive scheme effective. The 3-4 that Edwards wants to run is predicated on having three very good defensive linemen. The linebacker, no matter how talented, will get blocked and beaten if the line isn’t set. While Merriman and Porter are good thoughts, we need to be thinking NTs and 5 technique ends.

McClain is also a hot topic lately. He’s going to be most effective playing the weak side ILB position, a la Patrick Willis. We already have Posluszny and Mitchell to play that spot. Drafting McClain would give us three WILBs and no NT to protect him. While McClain is a great, great player, NT is a much more pressing need. Dan Williams is the guy we need to be talking about.

UFA that we should be considering
Note: I anticipate that Casey Hampton, Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, Karlos Dansby and Aubrayo Franklin won’t hit the market. And Ryan Pickett, while a good fit, won’t be signed. I don’t know why, just going off information Brian has mentioned.

Jason Ferguson
: Not the best NT, but better than who we have.
Dwan Edwards
: Solid rotational 5 technique end.
Nick Eason
: Depth 5 technique end.
Alfonso Boone
: Depth 5 technique.
Ian Scott
: Reserve DT with NT experience.
Danny Clark
: Veteran that could be a backup OLB.
Larry Foote
: Best strong side ILB on the market. Needs to be a priority target for the Bills.

Jeff Ulbrich: Strongside ILB. Getting long in the tooth.

Adalius Thomas: A force for the Ravens that tailed off in New England, that we could sign if we aren't happy with our OLB's.
Jimmy Kennedy
: Big man that has underachieved but has become a good reserve for Minnesota. Might be able to transition to NT.
Bryan Robinson
: Another priority on the free agent market. Has played in the 3-4 Over scheme as the NT the past three seasons.
Chike Okeafor
: OLB that could be signed if we don’t think we have the right OLBs. 3-4 Over strong side OLB experience.
Scott Fujita
: OLB who rushes in the Saints’ scheme. Starter if we don’t think we have the right OLBs.
Tully Banta-Cain
: Easier to get than Porter or Merriman if we don’t think we have the right OLBs.

Trades for NTs that we should consider
Isaac Sopoaga
: With the emergence of Franklin, Sopoaga could be available. Big wide body that can easily start and play two gap from day one.
Alan Branch
: Big strong NT that’s underachieved thus far. Could be a Ted Washington type find if he works harder.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.