The Dez Bryant Hypothesis: One Bills Fan Dream
by Moose68 on Mar 11, 2010 2:23 AM EST
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I warn the reader that I have no inside information to any teams drafting plans and that the following is just a lot of wishful thinking on my part. But if I were the Bills GM I'd try to exploit this situation as far as I could.
After reading through various mock drafts the one player that everyone seemingly could want (or need) in the 10 (Jags), 11 (Broncos), and 12 (Dolphins) draft slots is Dez Bryant. I've seen drafts where he goes to Oakland at number 8 and I've seen drafts where he falls into the late teens. When I heard that Miami has an interest in him and then Brian mocked him to the Jaguars, it really got me interested in the possibility of the Bills trading down. Let us assume that Oakland drafts a late second rounder (and I'm being kind to Mr. Davis) in the first round again and Dez falls to 9. For for the sake of argument (and for a consistent draft board/discussion) we will assume that Brian gets every pick 1 to 8 correct. To recap that is:
1-Rams-Bradford
2-Lions-Suh
3-Bucs-McCoy ("Jim, I'm a DT not a doctor dammit." Sorry, couldn't resist.)
4-Native Americans-Okung
5-Chiefs-Bulaga
6-Hawks-Spiller
7-Browns-Berry
8-Raiders-Campbell
Then come the teams that are interested in Dez Bryant. (We would be one, if the holes at LT and NT weren't so much more pressing.) In the mock draft Brian convinced me that our need for a NT is just as great as it is for a LT. Perhaps more so. The previous coaching staff thought enough of Bell to take a chance on him at LT. While I think most Bills fans would call it a failed experiment he has at least shown he has the potential to be considered at LT. Without having anyone on the team that played NT before (at least for us) I would argue that NT is the biggest need for our team (even if it was by a fraction over LT.) And Brian sold me again on Dan Williams being the perfect fit at NT for our team. But realistically Williams should be there at number 12 too. So trading down a couple spots and still getting the guy you wanted and an extra pick, (with so many needs on our team) should be our goal. Below is the chart that NFL GM's use when assigning fair value to draft picks. This one happens to come from CBS Sportsline.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/11599555
Again for the sake of a consistent discussion let us say that Miami wants to move ahead of the Broncos and Jags to select Dez Bryant. With the number 9 overall pick being worth 1350 points, it is Miami's job to offer up picks that put them in that range. The number overall 12 pick is worth 1200 points and would definitely be part of that scenario. Miami could offer us their 4th round pick and their 4th round pick next year too to make an appropriate value. I think it is more likely however that they would swap picks. Miami would give us their 3rd round pick (74, worth 220 points) and their 7th round pick (216, worth 6 points) for our 4th round pick (108, worth 78 points.) This represents a total difference of 148 points which puts us more in line with the difference in value between the 9th and 12th overall picks. I could definitely see us filling in more holes by having an extra 3rd round pick (even if it means giving up a 4th.) With Williams in the first, I would argue that "Charles Brown or Rodger Saffold type" (a guy with the potential to be our LT,) should be our selection in the 2nd. I say type because who knows which player will actually be there. Then having the 73 and 74 in the 3rd round opens up a lot of doors again to trade down for more picks, or try to get 2 more potential starters.
IMO this is where the selection of Nix as GM could pay off huge dividends. An experienced scout/GM type should be able to find that 3rd and 4th round gems that make a team rebound faster. At least that's the dream of this Bills fan.
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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Good post!
Love the idea. What we need are definitely more Picks!
"This is what happens Larry!, This is what happens! "-Walter Sobchak
by BigEasyBillsKrewe on Mar 11, 2010 2:30 AM EST reply actions
probably woulnt get that 6th nxt year but ya, idk if dez is that much of a draw if williams is still around
we the FANS the VOICE the PEOPLE the true BLOOD of the Buffalo BILLS are just doing all this SO mAYBE just MAYbe the Coach THE teAM will just see how us the FANS the the SPARTAN aka BUFARTAN we will not Surrender to know onE.
-abayarde
Great idea, I’ve always been all for trading down, the problem is that it might backfire, Denver will definitely be looking at Williams as well!
I call it... The Avaslug!
I am the 1st and probably only official member of the David "Dr." Jones fanclub. Until I get the newsletter out, anyway.
Syracuse Basketball 2010: Big East Champs!!! G'Orange!
is everybody still gung ho to take williams if we sign kennedy? i would take mcclain or davis over dan williams and dez bryant in a heartbeat. i question bryants’ attitude and commitment, and i question williams ability to be an impact player. that’s what i’m looking for with my #9.
Later Losman!
Hi Rock
Actually I was going to talk about if we don’t get Dan Williams that the trio of Trent Williams OT, McClain or Anthony Davis OT would be a pretty good consolation prize, but that seemed to make the article much too wordy, In addition it would detract from my point that NT rather than LT is our biggest need. (Not by much, but it is.)
Great call that Dez Bryant could be a reason for a team to want to move up. I think asking Miami for a pair of 4ths to move up three spots in the draft is too much. I think their 4th round pick this year alone is apropriate value. The value chart is outdated and doesn’t really work for top 15-20 picks.
Last year, after Cleveland traded down with the Jets, they made two more moves down. They moved down two spots from 17 to 19 and then two more from 19 to 21. I know it’s later in the draft, but the Browns only picked up a 6th round pick for each trade down.
Two years ago, New Orleans traded with NE to move up and grab Sedrick Ellis 7th as the Pats took Jerod Mayo 10th. NO gave up a 3rd, but got the Pats’ 5th in the trade.
So, I’d guess a 4th and nothing else. Or the swap pick scenario you mentioned also seems very realistic.
I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute
Kinda Off Topic...But a Response to Something I Read
OK, here goes. I’m primarily a lurker here and I read the articles and comments daily. I appreciate the dedication of the Bills fans here. That being said, I intend to put a few thoughts forward for your consideration…and I expect to be flamed for it…so it goes.
First, let me say that I have followed the Bills faithfully since 1960. That’s right 1960. So, based on what I’ve read on this site, I’m considered old, and out-of-touch, like Chan Galley and Buddy Nix. Let me say, IMHO, you’re wrong. I own my own business and work 50 – 60 hours a week and have a great deal of energy, and years of knowledge you only gain through “been there, done that”!
My comment is based on the statement, in regards to D Bell that “most Bills fans would call it a failed experiment”, is totally absurd!
This young man, who was rated as having great athleticism, but a project, due to his lack of real experience was thrown into an untenable position of being the the starting LT because of the stupidity of the OBD brain trust. IMHO this was a “no win” situation. Did he make mistakes? Of course he did. Why would you think he wouldn’t, since he really had never taken a live snap in the NFL, in one of the toughest positions to play in the NFL?
I’m willing to bet a dozen wings, and a beef on weck, that D Bell will be a major contributor to this team going forward!
To quote Dennis Miller: “It’s only my opinion, I may be wrong”!
Let the flaming begin!
MikeO
MikeO
Only a dozen wings?
That’s not livin’ large!
Not sure if Moose would totally disagree with you. He says “most Bills fans would call it a failed experiment” but goes on to say that he thinks Bell has potential at the position. No flame from me; I hope you’re right.
Hi MikeO
First, let me say I have a great deal of respect for my elders. Being a Bills fan since 1960 earns you a great deal of respect from me. I think history and situations repeat themselves and who better to learn from than our elders who have been there and done that.
Second you are right! I think Bell was thrown into a no win situation last year as well. I don’t remember exactly when they cut Walker but I’m pretty sure most of the preseason (if not all) of it was done. Instead of keeping Walker and have him start at LT for the first four or five games (while working Bell in rotation at RT, and some LT) they threw Bell on an island. There he was alone while opposing defenses threw their fastest, strongest SOB at him every week.
Third, I root for every Bills player. I want Bell to be the best football player he can be. I want Kelsey, Ellison and Denney to be Pro-bowlers. But wanting it won’t make it so. Sometimes you have to cut your losses. In the cases of Kelsey, Ellison and Denney, they need to go. They played hard and that is admirable, but they didn’t reach a consistently high achieving level to help the team win. Not so with Bell. The kid is young and has lots of potential. But unless you are a top 15 can’t miss, NFL Ready from day one draft pick (and lets face it, he isn’t) you need to be broken in slowly at LT. Personally I think Bell should be our starting RT this year. He should be groomed for a day when he’s ready to play LT. He was and still is a project. But by injury or by potential that is realized, he will be our LT someday.
Fourth and finally, please send me some wings! I live in Northern California and never get decent pizza or wings until I go home and visit my parents. You’d be surprised by how much you miss hometown food. The food out here isn’t totally bad, if you are a sushi fan or Taiwanese, and the Mexican food here is awesome. But I’d give my left nut on some days for decent pizza and wings.
Wish I Could Help You!
Moose,
I live in Atlanta now, which sure isn’t Buffalo, but fortunately there are a lot of Buffalo expats here so I can get decent wings and pizza here. There is a chain on sports bars here called Taco Mac, founded by two guys from Buffalo so the wings are decent, maybe not Anchor Bar, but decent, and they even have beef of weck on Wednesdays!
MikeO
Good first post, MikeO. Welcome to Rumblings!
While I’m not sure I saw much of anything from Bell last year to make me think he has great potential, I also would give him a few more years to see for sure. It’s waay too soon to call him “failed” already. Last year was just a terrible year for everyone. (except Byrd, that is.)
by StroudFanClub on Mar 12, 2010 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
Hi SFC
Um, I made the fanpost (and yes it is my first), Mike O made the comment (and the good point about it being way too early to call Bell a failure.)
I have to wonder… what if we didn’t change anything around except the coaching staff. If everything else was the same as last year, would an offensive minded coaching staff have done better with what we currently got. With all the changes they made last season right before the season began, I have to think it made the team really wonder what the H. E. double hockey sticks was going on.
I'd rather
the 4th this year and the 4th next.
Not as keen on the “their 3rd and our 4th” deal. Nets us little in extra picks (a 7th)
"Fan ?" You want to talk about being a fan of the Bills ? Try getting up at 3 AM every Monday to watch their games knowing they'll likely lose. Do this for 18 years and then call yourself a "fan"
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