Bills should target BPA at critical need areas
New Buffalo Bills GM Buddy Nix, for better or worse, has begun re-building the Bills - alongside head coach Chan Gailey - his way. The team approached free agency cautiously, which to date has worked out well for them, as the team has added three starters (RT Cornell Green, DE Dwan Edwards, ILB Andra Davis). That approach will likely continue, but we've known all along that Nix planned on doing most of his damage during the NFL Draft.
Assuming Buffalo doesn't make any more major free agent signings prior to this April's draft (and given their flurry of activity this week, that might not be a safe assumption), Buffalo has four critical needs entering draft weekend. They need a franchise quarterback. They need a left tackle. They need a nose tackle. They need a pass rusher or two.
No one's sure exactly how Nix plans to approach drafting prospects, but particularly when discussing the first round of the draft, a "best available player at a critical need position" approach is a fairly safe bet. If Nix subscribes to this first-round draft theory - and we've no reason to believe he doesn't - it's fair to expect the Bills to take the best QB, LT, NT or OLB they can find with the ninth overall pick.
After the jump, I've put down the names of 14 2010 NFL Draft prospects that fit the criteria of playing those critical need positions and warranting a first-round grade. The list is completely subjective, as it's mine, but it should give a good idea of the type of player the Bills could be looking at should the team follow this philosophy.
1. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma. No quarterback rates higher this year when discussing a combination of accuracy, intangibles and potential, but his shoulder injury and overall durability, as well as working from a spread offense, are major question marks. Bradford will need work reading defenses and a good line in front of him. If he accomplishes both, he'll be a very good NFL starting quarterback.
2. Russell Okung, LT, Oklahoma State. Has clearly established himself as the best tackle this year, and should be a long-term starter on the left side. Long, athletic, and a bit more powerful at the point of attack than advertised. Safe pick in a slightly overrated tackle class. Day one starter.
3. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame. Without doubt the most pro-ready quarterback available this year, but may have a lower ceiling than some other prospects. Good arm, good touch, good accuracy and an elite decision-maker. Scouts question his attitude and leadership abilities, but I believe those to be overblown. If an NFL team is looking for a day one starter at QB this year, Clausen really should be at the top of their list.
4. Anthony Davis, LT, Rutgers. Possesses elite talent and had a fantastic junior year at Rutgers. Outstanding athlete that can dominate at the second level. Got some weight issues under control early in his collegiate career, and hasn't had a relapse. Scouts still question his work ethic, and poor Combine reviews - plus pushing his Pro Day workout - has dropped him in many mocks. If he gets his head on straight, will start on the left side for a long time.
5. Bryan Bulaga, LT, Iowa. NFL coaches will love this guy's attitude and football acumen, but he's not an elite prospect. Average athleticism. Pretty good from a technique standpoint, but not enough that he can't be beat regularly. Can have trouble getting into defenders, and lacks the foot speed to make up for it. Should be a pro for a long time, but he may have to settle in on the right side. Very safe prospect.
6. Trent Williams, LT, Oklahoma. Durability is a concern, and is coming off a senior year in which he struggled moving to the left side. Excellent athlete and plays very physically. Definitely has the athletic chops to hold down the blind side, but needs some overall polishing. Another relatively safe pick, as he doesn't have any character concerns, and if he fails on the left side, he'll make an outstanding right tackle.
7. Derrick Morgan, OLB, Georgia Tech. Many view him strictly as a 4-3 end prospect, but he's a pretty good athlete, and 3-4 teams are definitely looking at him as a viable OLB candidate. If he does end up in the 3-4, he'll be asked to drop some weight, but he's the most polished pass rusher available this year, and one of the safest investments as well. Don't forget his recruiting ties to Chan Gailey, either.
8. Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee. Something of a late bloomer, as only his senior season was first-round worthy. Big, physical player that anchors extremely well and can eat up blockers. Athletic enough to avoid being a complete non-factor as a pass rusher, which sets him apart from other nose tackles. Not an elite talent, but plays a premium position very well. Safe pick.
9. Jerry Hughes, OLB, TCU. Very good athlete that has tested well pre-draft. Had an extremely productive career at TCU, which boasted one of college football's most dominant defenses a year ago. Perfect fit as a 3-4 pass rusher, and has the type of character and leadership abilities to really become the centerpiece for an NFL defense. Not necessarily an elite talent, but should have a productive NFL career.
10. Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan. Not sure if he's athletic enough to be a truly dominant pass rusher at the NFL level, but there isn't a single pass rusher that I respect more coming in than Graham. Measures in well, and has displayed enough athleticism to warrant consideration on the outside. Production cannot be overstated, and it'll get him drafted higher than many expect him to go. Will be asked to shed a few pounds if drafted by a 3-4 team.
11. Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas. Follows in the footsteps of 2009 top rookie Brian Orakpo. Possesses similar athleticism, but is not the specimen nor the pass rushing prospect that Orakpo was. Ideal fit is as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but he may need some time to develop into a consistent performer at the pro level.
12. Jason Pierre-Paul, OLB, South Florida. Makes this list on upside alone, though his junior season at USF - his first at the D-1 level - was anything but unproductive. May be the single best athlete available this year at any position, and flashed dominance as a pass rusher. Boom-or-bust pick, at least in relation to his rookie season, but he's also a safe character pick that should develop into an excellent pro.
13. Everson Griffen, OLB, USC. Best fit as a pro might be as a 4-3 end, but is a very good athlete that has tested extremely well for a man at his weight. Lacks pass-rushing polish, but had a good career at USC and has a considerable amount of upside. Will go higher if a 4-3 team likes him enough.
14. Charles Brown, LT, USC. Lacks physicality to his game, but a superb athlete with quick feet and enough size to start from day one in a pinch. Very solid upside, and a really good personal back story. Good work ethic and a low character risk. Might be more of a long-term investment, but absolutely should be a first-round pick.
0 recs |
173 comments
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Comments
I'd really like to spend
Our first or second round pick on a , OLB. I’m a little leery of our depth there. And honestly I’d love me some Jerry Hughes on defense.
would be nice
but we dont have a D without a NT ( Williams will not cut it)
and we will have the same problems as last year on the offense if we dont have a LT
"Hold ya chin up...nuh nuh nuh...gone" -Marshawn Lynch-
"but we don't have a D without a NT"
“( Williams will not cut it)”. I assume you meant Kyle, because Dan Williams would most definitely handle NT for years to come.
Here’s my vote for big Dan!
And with the 9th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select...
I’d really like to see the QBs on the roster now with a capable LT. Though expectations are low for a rookie coming in to play the 2nd most important position in the game. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if (given they take an LT in rd 1) the guy can play well enough as a rookie to provide even marginal protection for the QB.
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Song recommendation of the week: Ween - Bananas & Blow
"...BUT anyting is possible come draft DAY HOW many times we all say this is the guy we ae getting and BANGGGGG EVERYbody is in a state of SHOCK CAUSE frutty Pebles snack BANG bang CEREAL Coach just went the other way COCCOA PUFF nutty NUT craker Umpa Lumpa on all of the FANS Band wagon Kraken Dibede POP" - abayarde
by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 17, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
i admit that I pray they don’t get a QB with the Ist or 2nd pick and stay focused on the lines. Unless there’s an offer you can’t refuse. I really don’t think any of those QB’s are ready for the pros in this year. I’ve read so much neg stuff about these guys. There’s too many bum QB’s in the league as it is, that have been all hyped up.
Dude… I dont know how you guys write so many stories… theres like 3 a day, minimum…
You guys are awesome. Keep it up…
"Its always Miller Time
Whens it gonna be Sabres-Offense Time?"
- by Jsz on Mar 3, 2010 6:25 PM PST
I wish we would have got a NT on FA
it would have made the draft alot easier and we would look really good
id like to see a more for S. Rogers still
"Hold ya chin up...nuh nuh nuh...gone" -Marshawn Lynch-
NT thru FA would have been awesome but there werent that many options. All of them pretty much got scooped up by their teams…
Im hoping we can find our NT this year as opposed to having Kyle Williams rotate in with some guys. If we can get out NT of the future this year I will be very pleased.
"Its always Miller Time
Whens it gonna be Sabres-Offense Time?"
- by Jsz on Mar 3, 2010 6:25 PM PST
we just have 3 huge needs
and it will be hard to fill all
"Hold ya chin up...nuh nuh nuh...gone" -Marshawn Lynch-
I hear ya...
But it makes it a helluva lot easier with the signing of Davis and Edwards… Im looking forward to this draft, because I really have no idea where theyre going… We know QB, LT, NT, OLB… but in what order… and what players? lol I cant wait.
"Its always Miller Time
Whens it gonna be Sabres-Offense Time?"
- by Jsz on Mar 3, 2010 6:25 PM PST
I miss the LOST thread.
Buffalo Rumblings Premiere League 2009 Champion
Song recommendation of the week: Ween - Bananas & Blow
"...BUT anyting is possible come draft DAY HOW many times we all say this is the guy we ae getting and BANGGGGG EVERYbody is in a state of SHOCK CAUSE frutty Pebles snack BANG bang CEREAL Coach just went the other way COCCOA PUFF nutty NUT craker Umpa Lumpa on all of the FANS Band wagon Kraken Dibede POP" - abayarde
by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 17, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Charles Brown - 2nd Round
I think he slides to the 2nd Round where he can be picked up by BUF…I think Bradford & Clausen are gone by 9 so NT or OLB at 9….imo
www.Foundation58.org - "Helping Those Who Help Us" in the fight against cancer.
There’s certainly a chance of that. It’d be very nice if OTs slid a bit.
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by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
No, I don’t think it does…
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by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he could too...
And that would be great for us. If we could address something besides LT with the #9 and soop him up in the 2nd would be fantastic
"Its always Miller Time
Whens it gonna be Sabres-Offense Time?"
- by Jsz on Mar 3, 2010 6:25 PM PST
No Disrespect
But how can you leave Bruce Campbell off of this list when Charles Brown is here. Campbell is a natural athlete and has excellent work ethic and size to play the position. I would love to see him in a Bills Uniform.
You mentioned absolutely nothing about the way Campbell plays the game of football, and that’s precisely why he’s not on this list. I’ve had Campbell as a second-round prospect for a long time. Elite potential, but boy, is he going to need fantastic coaching.
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by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Understood
He has proven to be a very coachable player which matched w his potential could make him an elite player very soon. I just feel like he is more naturally gifted than Brown and has loads more potential. I would love to see him drop to rd 2 but I highly doubt it will happen.
Campbell is more naturally gifted than just about any other player at any position this year. That doesn’t make him a first-round prospect.
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by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
ala The ’Bow.
Buffalo Rumblings Premiere League 2009 Champion
Song recommendation of the week: Ween - Bananas & Blow
"...BUT anyting is possible come draft DAY HOW many times we all say this is the guy we ae getting and BANGGGGG EVERYbody is in a state of SHOCK CAUSE frutty Pebles snack BANG bang CEREAL Coach just went the other way COCCOA PUFF nutty NUT craker Umpa Lumpa on all of the FANS Band wagon Kraken Dibede POP" - abayarde
by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 17, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Why no Derrick Morgan? Especially if you include Everson Griffen.
It'll be just you, me, and Peter Nincompoop.
Complete oversight on my part. Oops. :)
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by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
OK, phew. Cause, i was under the impression that he should be pretty high on Buffalo’s board.
It'll be just you, me, and Peter Nincompoop.
He’s in there now.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I am guessing Williams is higher on the board. I was listening to Mike Mayock the other day saying Morgan is a MUCH better fit at 3-4, like you said above. I am a little afraid of trying to fit square pegs into round holes.
It'll be just you, me, and Peter Nincompoop.
Which Williams?
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Positionally, I just have a hunch that Nix will rate OLB as more important than NT. Just a hunch. Plus, Morgan’s just straight up a better prospect than Dan Williams.
I list Trent Williams as a LT. He’s kind of in the same boat as Bulaga – he’ll get a look at LT, and if he flops, he’ll make a superb RT. Williams is actually a better athlete than Bulaga, too. I kind of view them the same, with each having slightly different strengths and weaknesses.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
You could be right about OLB. I would guess that calculus would change if Schobel announced he was returning.
As for Trent/Bulaga, they are both flawed. I would much rather select them later in the first round, if that were a possibility. To me, a Top 10 pick needs a bit more certainty. The certain ones, to me, are Bradford, Okung, Morgan, and D. Williams.
It'll be just you, me, and Peter Nincompoop.
I would guess that calculus would change if Schobel announced he was returning.
Most likely.
And I’m right there with you on wanting “certainty” at the top of the round.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s certainly a best fit there. I think they’re underselling him athletically.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
They were basing their analysis almost solely on the combine.
It'll be just you, me, and Peter Nincompoop.
I saw that, also. It made me think Morgan would not be on the Bills’ radar in the first. But as a big shout out to Rumblings scouting staff, I will weigh both opinions equally.
a.k.a. Undee
Haha, that’s appreciated!
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
The NFL guys are so much better than the ESPN duo of "Helmet & Hermit"
I trust “Brain” more than any of them when it comes to fitting players in with B-Lo’s future plans.
At least Brian knows the Bills players and their back-ups and what they can and can’t do well…
The NFL Network guys are pretty good IMO when it comes to describing what makes a player more likely to succeed in certain situations…they have almost no clue about draft position though, no different than us.
by NorCal BillsFan on Mar 17, 2010 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Dan Williams
Would be a solid pick IMO at No. 9. Huge space eater and great athleticism. In the 2nd round, we should be fairly confident a starting caliber LT will be available.
How about taking the best available LT in the first, and then take a shot on Colt or Dan L with our 2nd pick. After that all Defense.
I would be completely and utterly flabbergasted if Buffalo took either of those quarterbacks in the second round. I’d be pretty shocked if ANY team took either of those guys in the second round, in fact.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Colt is gone in the second round.
Personally, I’d much rather have Snead.
It'll be just you, me, and Peter Nincompoop.
I’ll admit to being rather infatuated with the idea of the Bills taking Snead in the second round. Not to the point that I’d advocate it, but it’s definitely interesting.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Is this a joke? Did anyone watch jevan snead play this year?
54% completion, 20/20 td/int, and just looked absolutely awful all season.
by quantumuprising on Mar 17, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
fyi, scounts inc has him rated as the 9th qb and a fifth round prospect
by quantumuprising on Mar 17, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s not really a joke. There are definitely players I’d rather have in the second round, so don’t freak about that label.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
So
does this reveal the fourth QB on your list? Or did you already disclose this and I missed it?
a.k.a. Undee
Well
Weren’t there report’s that Nix was infatuated with Snead? I seem to remember reading that somewhere, maybe here?
Pat Moran mentioned that. Also mentioned Dan Williams.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks Brian
I was looking everywhere for that bloody reference. I was afraid I was losing my mind.
Who were the first three quarterbacks on my list? :)
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Snead
Snead was pretty solid in the first half of the season though. I recall that Ole Miss was ranked possibly and he was getting some Heisman talk but they fell apart
like in the first big game against south carolina when he went 7-21? or in the game against alabama when he went 11-34 with 0tds and 4 picks?
by quantumuprising on Mar 17, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought I remember you saying there are 4 QBs that have a good shot at being decent NFL players. We know the first two, and then I assumed the ’Bow, because, well…I saw a statue of the virgin Mary crying tears that looked like him.
a.k.a. Undee
Well, maybe you assume too much. :)
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
That can not be denied. Since there has been only one picture of you anywhere, I always assume you look like a character on LOST or The Office, depending on the current avatar.
But it’s fun to try to figure things out, as opposed to being spoon fed everything.
a.k.a. Undee
Ah. Well in that case, I’ll erase the four QB names…
[erased]…
… and just let you continue to speculate.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
It doesn't matter
We all know One of Brian’s 4 Quarterback’s was Thadeus Lewis from Duke. lol
I was thinking Greg Paulis… SU lol
"Its always Miller Time
Whens it gonna be Sabres-Offense Time?"
- by Jsz on Mar 3, 2010 6:25 PM PST
I hate Duke.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Brian hating Duke is like hating Rutgers.
What do they both have in common you ask? There both full of people from new jersey.
My favorite NJ joke is still...
What’s the difference between Jersey girls and Jersey trash? Trash gets picked up.
lol
(Sorry any NJ Bills fans… but not any NJ Jets or Giants fans :-p)
"Its always Miller Time
Whens it gonna be Sabres-Offense Time?"
- by Jsz on Mar 3, 2010 6:25 PM PST
by bflo on Mar 17, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I assure you, I do not.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Perssonally
Of all the teams down here I like NC State. Only because I’ve had 5 or 6 family members graduate from there.
I know what this mythical Galliford looks like. IMO he doesn’t resemble a character from the Office but I haven’t started my Lost series on Netflix yet.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Mar 21, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
i’d just like to know what takes him from the late fifth scouts has him at to a second round steal that you have him at
by quantumuprising on Mar 17, 2010 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t say “second round steal.”
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
if you want to mince words then, what takes him from the late fifth scouts has him at to you being rather infatuated with the bills taking him in the second round?
by quantumuprising on Mar 18, 2010 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that Buffalo’s need for a QB is that desperate, and I really, really like Snead’s raw talent.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 18, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep. Accuracy is my biggest concern with him.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 18, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Could he really still be there in the 5th, if so, that is good value on a guy like Snead.
by NorCal BillsFan on Mar 17, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
With out getting fully in depth with his scouting report
Snead is a much better prospect than he is rated right now. He has the strongest arm in the draft, good size, and a quick release. His accuracy issues are a 3 point problem. First, he lost his best WR (Wallace), probably the best LT in the draft last year, he does have a minor mechanical flaw he working on all year. He threw the ball under duress almost every time he dropped back to pass. He still got up and made the next play. He is the total opposite of Trent Edwards. He takes a lot of chances. He is like Brett Farve in that way. With a good QB coach, he could be a starter in 2011.
by The Irishman on Mar 17, 2010 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Strongest Arm?
If so, why didn’t he out throw the QB’s competing at the Senior Bowl QB challenge?
you’re going to blame his accuracy and 20 ints on losing a receiver? did you actually watch any of the games? It wasn’t little accuracy problems…he looked AWFUL. People were making him a case study all year as a guy who shouldve gone out to the draft already because he was killing his draft status by playing so poorly.
by quantumuprising on Mar 18, 2010 7:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Well
If we take him in the second, he won’t be as much of a case study.
so just because a team like the bills make another stupid draft move and take an unproven player way ahead of his time, he wouldn’t be a case study anymore?
that defies logic to me
by quantumuprising on Mar 18, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Well If a teamdoes take him in the secon
He obviously won’y have hurt hisdraft status as much as everyone thought. if he hasn’t hurt his draft status as much as every one thought, he can’t really be a case study for it, can he?
well, he was considered a first round pick at the end of the previous season. And just because someone picks him in the second doesn’t mean he won’t be a case study for it.
by quantumuprising on Mar 18, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Snead?
Amazing how player evaluations can bring out such a wide range of opinions. I’m SHOCKED that you would be “infatuated” with the idea of the Bills taking Snead in the 2nd. I don’t think there is a worse QB in the draft. The guy is a dud.
Wow, no feakin way I would take
Snead in the 2nd. Maybe more like the 4-7 range, and IMO the latter (5th-6thish round)
" A wise man once told me, never argue with a fool, becuase from a far, you can't tell who is who" - Jay-Z
by SouthBuffaloNDgrad on Mar 18, 2010 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
taking either in the second
would seriously damage the “cred” Nix and Gailey have established of late.
"huge, big, fast, nasty...all those terms"
I love the 2nd and 3rd round depth this year at a few of these positions
OLB seems to be the one position (out of the three mentioned in this article not including QB) where I think there is a decent size gap between the first round prospects and the 2nd round prospects.
You can make a point for 2nd round prospects at OT and NT that you can’t necessarily make for OLB.
If both QB’s on this list are gone at 9, I feel fairly confident we should draft a pash rushing OLB at that position and hope for best NT or OT available in the 2nd round.
Really good point.
I wonder if Chix think they may have a servicable NT in Lonnie Harvey or Favorite. Same to a lesser degree with D. Bell at LT.
While they might not be top grade talents, with whatever new schemes the new regime is implementing – are they good enough to be productive?
If so, a dynamic pass rushing OLB looks like a good idea. With the FA aquisitions, and a hopeful step forward from Maybin, the new D doesn’t look so bad………..on paper. :)
by LeClaireBill on Mar 17, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm glad you mentioned Graham and Hughes specifically
With pass rushers it strikes me that great college production often leads directly to pro production regardless of measurables. Elvis Dumervil immediately jumps to mind. I think he had 19 sacks his final year of college and ends up in the fourth round because of his physical skill set. I’m higher on Graham than Pierre-Paul at this point.
Changes in order
I like a lot of your picks, however I think there are red flags for players such as Anthony Davis, JPP, and Derick Morgan from a scheme standpoint. I wouldn’t be upset if Buffalo reaches for a player like Dan WIlliams because if they try to trade down he will likely be taken by Miami. Sergio Kindle, Brandon Graham, and Jerry Hughes would all be awesome rush LB options and very safe bets, but they will all likely be off the board in the late first round and unless we trade back or trade up into the first with our 2nd they are unrealistic possibilities.
Trade Back and Get Graham
That’s my best case scenario. Graham is an elite player with monster production. You stockpile a few picks and add him to your 3-4… and I don’t care what your needs are, you are doing it right.
i will not drinketh thy coolaid...
Or conversely
You trade back and get Hughes, who IMO will end up being the best defensive player in this entire draft.
I´ll say Colt has a decent chance at being a pretty good QB in the NFL, his completion % is very high, plus the guy is a complete football player. I´ll be shocked if he´s not drafted by the 3rd round.
Great Production too
Don’t forget that Nix is on record as stating that college production is a huge factor in choosing a college QB.
I would say if he holds true to his word, guys like Colt, Dan L. and Tebow all rise above the others. And I have to say that I love the fact that Nix gets this. It’s so Parcells like. To not get caught up in with the “measureables” but instead pay more attention to the “intangibles” is what will lead us to finding our next great QB!
It seems like every year everyone talks about getting some help on the line...
but the closer draft day gets the more other positions begin to pop up. It doesn’t matter what quarterback we have they can’t throw from their back. Although we need a nose, our defense wasn’t that bad last year considering the situation the offense stuck them with continuously. LT first (and drop down if the best are taken) NT second and then go best available from there. Can’t lose focus again.
our defense wasn’t that bad last year
That argument was made completely irrelevant when George Edwards decided to move to the 3-4.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nice to use a snippet instead of the entire sentence
Somebody’s been watching Fox News…
Uh. Yeah. OK, fine.
Although we need a nose, our defense wasn’t that bad last year considering the situation the offense stuck them with continuously.
I read that as you diminishing the need at NT because of both a) the offense stinking, and b) that the defense wasn’t bad last year.
Which is why I only quoted part of the sentence.
But yeah. Just like Fox.
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
And what I’m sayin is, if the line was addressed fully last year wouldn’t have been as horrible as it was, which caused the defense to be on the field longer than it should. Six out of ten loses were in the fourth quarter and I would bet in most of those loses the opponent won the TOP. That’s why I said, “considering the situation…”. So whether it’s considered “irrelevant” of not I still have more faith in our defense no matter the alignment than I do our offense without a LT.
But as our defense stands right now, we don’t have a true NT. Now if you’re arguing that those two positions are on the top of our needs list, but LT is more important to ensure that whoever our NT is won’t have to be on the field with the same frequency as our defense was last year, I won’t necessarily agree with you, but you’d have an easier time arguing that position and that’s where Brian may have misinterpreted what you were saying. Regardless of what we do at LT, we still need a NT more simply because we don’t have anyone on the depth chart that fits the description of a NT.
After further review of my statement...
You’re right. I could have worded it differently. I hereby withdraw my vinegar laced statement.
Can’t lose focus again.
Why not? It’s fun. And the only people who really matter are Nix and Gailey (to a lesser extent). Nothing you or I clamor about is going to (hopefully) change their minds….
…but I still say draft Graham. :)
i will not drinketh thy coolaid...
You know you're right...
And I respect your decision : )
Agree 100% that our first pick should be LT. My only problem would be if the top 4 LT are gone by #9
Agree 100% that our first pick should be LT. My only problem would be if the top 4 LT are gone by #9
Why do tyou feel like this? There’s plenty of talented OT’s available between rd’s 1 and 3. Let’s not just lock into position’s of need when drafting in the first round.
I don't see the Bills passing up a tackle again
I don’t see them picking LB or DE. The OL is a joke now and DJ and company made a big mistake passing on the likes of Oher. The Bills have drafted a tackle just once in the past 20 years in the first round. I know that Mike Williams was a flop but we really need to solidify this position for years to come. For those that think D Bell is the solution should keep dreaming. He has talent but what can you expect from a 7th round pick? Bills better hope that one of the top three tackles fall to their draft position.
by Long Beach Bills Fan on Mar 17, 2010 3:59 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
For the record, we are talking about our first-round pick here. As far as I know, we have 7 more picks to make after that one.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point. But they really need to address the issue with a quality pick in rounds 1-3. Later round prospects generally don’t hang around the team for long. With the state of line today, we cannot wait for a later round prospect to mature. By the way, thanks for all the updates. I am a physician in private practice and it is nice to take some time off to the side and read all of these great articles. Keep up the good work.
by Long Beach Bills Fan on Mar 17, 2010 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions
You trash DJ and company in your earlier post but last season they had an awesome draft with “quality picks” in the likes of Wood, Levitre, and Byrd. Add in Nelson in the fourth and you have a good point.
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by MattRichWarren on Mar 21, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Peters
was undrafted and he turned out pretty well at LT. He has more football experience than Bell, but Bell seems to be a great athlete.
"Yo, I gotta have sex tonight! I mean peep this - They say here ninety-two percent of the honeys at UCLA are sexually active. Ninety-two of the women in Los Angeles at UCLA walking around going, "Class... or sex? What shall I do?" Ninety-two percent, yo! Hey, you know what that means? What? It means I gots a ninety-two percent chance of embarrassing myself. I roll up on that shorty be like, "What's up yo?" she be like, "You don't know 20 different ways to make me call you Big Poppa" cuz I don't yo." "Rest in peace" - Mostly spoken by Kenny Fisher
Well reading in the links this morning the bill's are looking at WR's as well.
Anyone think that if Dez bryant is at 9 the Bill’s will give him some thought to taking him?
No, trade down and grab Golden. IF we go WR.
" A wise man once told me, never argue with a fool, becuase from a far, you can't tell who is who" - Jay-Z
by SouthBuffaloNDgrad on Mar 17, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
trade down where? i doubt he makes it out of the first
by quantumuprising on Mar 17, 2010 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Well my problem with Golden is that I’m taller than him. As a matter of fact, I’m taller than half of our receiving core and I’m only six foot, I’d personally like to see the Bills draft a guy at wide out that at least looks more like a good NFL receiver physically and has a good skill set that can be developed into a great receiver. It also depends on who’s available at LT and NT by the time pick 9 comes up. If we can’t find a starter at either NT and LT at #9 (a) we’re in trouble, and (b) then we can think about taking a WR there, or trading down.
He's the next Steve Smith 1.0 IMO
" A wise man once told me, never argue with a fool, becuase from a far, you can't tell who is who" - Jay-Z
by SouthBuffaloNDgrad on Mar 17, 2010 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
just saying who I’d want if we went WR, which I would be against mostly
" A wise man once told me, never argue with a fool, becuase from a far, you can't tell who is who" - Jay-Z
by SouthBuffaloNDgrad on Mar 17, 2010 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Dez or spiller maybe a possibility at #9
"Yo, I gotta have sex tonight! I mean peep this - They say here ninety-two percent of the honeys at UCLA are sexually active. Ninety-two of the women in Los Angeles at UCLA walking around going, "Class... or sex? What shall I do?" Ninety-two percent, yo! Hey, you know what that means? What? It means I gots a ninety-two percent chance of embarrassing myself. I roll up on that shorty be like, "What's up yo?" she be like, "You don't know 20 different ways to make me call you Big Poppa" cuz I don't yo." "Rest in peace" - Mostly spoken by Kenny Fisher
I think Dez more than Spiller...
But it depends on whose been drafted so far.
"Its always Miller Time
Whens it gonna be Sabres-Offense Time?"
- by Jsz on Mar 3, 2010 6:25 PM PST
I like the list, and it just goes to show, that if Buffalo were to trade back there would still be options.
Hey Brian, are you going to be making a new spread sheet soon showing how the roster would look like today? I think it would be a good way for everyone to see what the FO is already looking at.
I was born in Buffalo, and NO, it's not a suburb of New York City
I plan on doing that a little closer to the draft.
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I would prefer OT in the 1st, but I look at Spiller as a lot like LT and Nix was a part of the drafting of LT. Thats why I think Spiller.
"Yo, I gotta have sex tonight! I mean peep this - They say here ninety-two percent of the honeys at UCLA are sexually active. Ninety-two of the women in Los Angeles at UCLA walking around going, "Class... or sex? What shall I do?" Ninety-two percent, yo! Hey, you know what that means? What? It means I gots a ninety-two percent chance of embarrassing myself. I roll up on that shorty be like, "What's up yo?" she be like, "You don't know 20 different ways to make me call you Big Poppa" cuz I don't yo." "Rest in peace" - Mostly spoken by Kenny Fisher
I think Morgan in the 1st,is a can't miss pick..
Whether it’s DE or OLB,this guy can play!..If,and it’s a big IF I know,but if Maybin flashes some brilliance and Morgan could fill in on the other side,our LB corps would be devastating..Or even if Morgan has to go DE,having that kind of athlete right behind “backing up” Stroud..It’s win win for the team..Also I think that Nix will wait for a guy like Capers to fill the NT position,so if the QB’s are gone,Morgan is the way to go..
Never argue with an Idiot,they'll drag You down to their level and beat You with experience every time..
Really ? I thought
he was the one player who stood out as not fitting our 3-4. He really seemed out of place when they did some 3-4 allignments this year.
"Fan ?" You want to talk about being a fan of the Bills ? Try getting up at 3 AM every Monday to watch their games knowing they'll likely lose. Do this for 18 years and then call yourself a "fan"
What if the BPA in Nix's mind is the all or nothing QB situation.
Tim Tebow. He’s either gonna stink – or be great. If Nix thinks he’s gonna be great, he is the BPA at #9 for sure…
"Everybody has a plan until they get hit" Philosopher M.Tyson
Tebow @ 41 for me, at the highest.
" A wise man once told me, never argue with a fool, becuase from a far, you can't tell who is who" - Jay-Z
by SouthBuffaloNDgrad on Mar 17, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn't hold water
If Nix thinks he’s gonna be great, he is the BPA at #9 for sure…
So if Nix thinks Snead can be a great QB, we should take him at #9? Of course not, because that is no where near will he should be taken. The same goes for Suh, McCoy, Bradford, Clausen, and anyone else. IMO, you draft for value, not particular players or positions. I understand your point though, the logic would be that T. Brady should have been chosen 1st overall, but then the flipside to that is he wouldn’t be as good as he is now would he?
by NorCal BillsFan on Mar 17, 2010 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Well for one, if the Bills are looking for a day-one starter at QB, they’re not going to get much more production than they would get out of Trent or Fitz this year, especially when it comes to the Touchdowns to Interceptions ratio. The last two guys to come in as rookies and take over a team are obviously Matt Ryan (16 TDs to 11 INTs) and Joe Flacco (14 TDs to 12 INTs). You can definitely get at least the same touchdown production out of Edwards or Fitzpatrick, so if they do draft a QB in the first two rounds (which I feel would be a HUGE mistake), they need to stick him in a spot where he can learn off the field or else we could be carrying two Trent Edwards (guys considered to have a wealth of potential, but thrown into things WAY to soon and then face a burn out when the team leans on them) on the team. It’s got to be NT, LT, and OLB as the focus in the first three or four rounds. The secondary is pretty much set with solid performances from a bunch of guys last year and any pick not spent on the three aforementioned positions in the early rounds of the draft, especially the ones in prime time, aren’t necessarily wasted, but aren’t the best choice.
I hear what you all say but
If Nix wants Tebow at 41 then he’ll take him at 9 if he feels there is the least chance he isn’t there at 41. ANd that is the quandry with QB’s – because they are so important, IF you have a guy you want (and you see him as your starter at some point) you must take him when you have a chance….
"Everybody has a plan until they get hit" Philosopher M.Tyson
and KGun, I hear what you’re saying, but the Bills have to address NT, LT, OLB early because that’s where they have no potential starters. Honestly, the Bills aren’t talented enough this year to draft a guy in the first two rounds on the basis that one day he may be your starter. At least at QB they can potentially scrape together an 8-8 or even a 9-7 (or less possible, but still not impossible 10-6) season if they can pick out starters at especially LT, NT, and OLB and then WR. I fully believe that, as sad as it seems to many fans, the Bills 2010 starter is on their current roster. Their 2010 starters at LT and NT hopefully aren’t and at least one of their 2010 starters at OLB are not on the current roster. That needs to be the focus. If Tebow is there at pick 9 and you’ve still got starter potential LTs or NTs on the board (which there will be) you’ve got to draft at one of those positions and let Tebow go and wait until 2011 to find either a guy in the draft (as this is already a weak draft for QBs) or in free agency. If Nix wants Tebow at 9, he needs his head examined. I’d rather have McCoy in the second than Tebow in the first. I think a QB in this draft is a poor choice, more serious needs elsewhere and Nix knows that.
I couldn't agree more with just about everything you said...
and I have been sayin this for a while now as well…
It’s got to be NT, LT, and OLB as the focus in the first three or four rounds
I would throw WR in as the other pick in those first 4 rounds…unless they like another Dlineman or Olineman, Im fine with that too…
by NorCal BillsFan on Mar 17, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Yea, I was actually going to put WR in there, but I didn’t want to understate the importance of those three positions. We definitely need some help there because we know Roscoe is a non-factor at WR and Hardy has a lot to learn and being on the PUP list a lot of last year only set him back. Johnson, I wouldn’t necessarily mind seeing a lot of him, but he is still developing. With that said, if there’s a WR in the third or fourth (maybe the second, and that’s a big maybe) that offers more value than any of our other needs I wouldn’t be upset to see him taken. Either way, though, they’ve got to find a way to add one or two more bodies in here after they dealt themselves a great disservice in my opinion by telling Josh Reed he won’t be offered a new deal. I think they should look for a WR in the first for if they see guys they like for the core three needs either before they pick a WR or if they know there’s gonna be a useful guy(s) later, draft a WR earlier than the fourth. My most preferred method of attack is by focusing on NT and LT in the first two rounds and then turn to the OLB in the third and/or fourth and then a WR. I also wouldn’t mind picking up Naaman Roosevelt (and that could just be my warped mind from that great 2008/2009 season talking) late since his value is sure to have dropped after not being invited to the combine.
Much rather take the Jets approach
Build the lines between last year and this year, let the best of the current QBs play and reconsider the QB position in next year’s draft. Unless we can somehow get Bradford at 9.
something you forgot?
did you also happen to forget that the jets also had brett favre that year as well and were in talks with him all along? That is why they were able to pass on QB’s and address the lines
"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes
by panekattack on Mar 18, 2010 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Right, so they built a line for an aged, not mobile quarterback. And from what you said, you seem to be suggesting the Bills draft a QB round one? Let’s say we take a Bradford or Clausen and wait off on LT, then Bradford and Clausen could potentially be thrown into the lions den as opposing defenses waltz into the pocket and then all of the sudden you’ve got another Trent Edwards on the roster, so terrified of being sacked that he’s checking down every other pass play. You can either address the line in this draft, or address the QB. Personally, I’d much rather have a line in place, with a year together before throwing in a new QB. The Jets line was more prepared for Sanchez having had a year together with Favre. Who knows? Maybe with protection either Trent, Fitz or Brohm could put together stats like Favre did with the Jets, 22 TDs, 22 INTs.
And the only upside with Tebow is that he can at least see the defenders rushing in on him because we drafted him instead of a LT
not round 1
I certainly am not a fan of the bills taking a QB round 1 unless they are sold that the guy they take is “their guy” without any doubt in their mind personally I’d like to see them take an offensive tackle in round 1 and then take tebow rd. 2 yes i said tebow the guy has all of the intangibles you want in a qb and is an excellent leader for years to come. I agree though without building up that line it’s like throwing a QB into the fire and asking him to perform and it won’t work. But if we go OT rd. 1 and let tebow learn for a yr or 2 (Does not play at all!) we have a pretty solid line then and our qb of the future
"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes
rd. 3
and in rd. 3 you snag arthur jones the big DT from Syracuse I believe health is a concern but when he ’s on the field the guy is as good as they come (but I actually like taking Jordan Shipley in the 3rd a little more but I doubt that would happen)
"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes
That is definitely a possible route, but I don’t believe that this team is deep enough in the key areas we’ve been talking about to draft a QB that won’t contribute right away. The first three rounds (at least) need to be guys that have the potential to start this year. I think the QB position is better worried about in next year’s draft or free agency. Both of those classes will be deeper anyways.
Nothing at to base this on at all
but Bradford reminds me of Rob Johnson…not sure if it is the fragile label and “soft”-looking appearance or what…
by NorCal BillsFan on Mar 17, 2010 6:28 PM EDT reply actions
I have to agree
I think he will be average at best in the NFL. I see a lot of injuries piling up on this guy if he is a starter somewhere. And it looks like right now he will start somewhere. Then again most Browns fans thought Quinn was their new future starter, and now looks like to be the new Broncos back up.
I would say above average talent
But the injuries are a concern.
I may be wrong but..
I think Nix and co. will go with safe picks in the first 2 rounds, and maybe the entire draft. This may not be particularly revealing, but I think prospects like Anthony Davis and Jason Paul-Pierre might be lower on the draft board. Nix knows he simply cannot miss on his first 2 picks this year and while Davis has some upside I don’t think Buffalo is in a good situation to take that risk with someone like Trent Williams, Dan Williams or even Charles Brown sitting there. I’m not saying Brown is higher than Davis on anyone’s board, but if the Bills find it hard to trade down then they might just go with the surer thing even if the ceiling is low.
Completely agree with the fact that they can’t miss on the first two picks. This team is simply not talented enough to draft a high risk/high reward type of guy in, I would say not just the first two rounds, but at least the first four. I consider this team with four needs to fill (three of them are absolutely key): NT, LT, OLB, and WR. Forget about QB, that can be worried about next year. Get a team in place before you hand the keys to a new guy. In my opinion its easier to build a team and find a QB that fits your team later than it is to find a QB and tailor your team to that QB. Will we be a playoff team next year? Probably not. But drafting “safe” picks that can come in and contribute in a starting capacity, or platoon as our front 7 might be concerned, are a lot smarter than guys that are high risk.
Im fine with everyone on this list Except Anthony Davis
When your pickin top 10 you better pick a guy that has a good attitude and passion about the game. Sure having both the skill set and mentality would be preferred but I don’t see that desire form Davis and would stay very far away from him. Determination and desire can take you very far in life and football, and that is something hat has been question of Davis.
I give Maybin credit for having a strong desire. Now hopefully that will translate as his switches to an OLB.
Boo Bulaga
Very safe prospect
I’ve been trying to figure out a way to put into words my distaste for the Bulaga love on this blog, but i cant put it better than this
e’rbody is scared of Mike Williams. Dont draft scared, you’ll never get better. Brian Bulaga should not be drafted in the top 20 imo the talent just isnt there. Talent wins games, hard work gets you Jauronian praise for your motor
take the best player, and if the coaches talk to him and think hes not committed enough, then take the next most talented guy, its not like there wont be an elite-ish player at a different position of need at 9 available, not the safe guy who wont ever be elite, even though your drafting him in an elite talent spot
we the FANS the VOICE the PEOPLE the true BLOOD of the Buffalo BILLS are just doing all this SO mAYBE just MAYbe the Coach THE teAM will just see how us the FANS the the SPARTAN aka BUFARTAN we will not Surrender to know onE.
-abayarde
that views WR as a huuuuge need??? Is anyone really confident with Hardy or Johnson as or #2 receiver. Hardy has shown absolutely no promise in his first 2 years. Johnson seems to be able to only play well at St John Fisher. Realistically, Evans isnt even a #1 caliber wideout. We have 3 guys at QB with NFL talent and starting experience. We’ve proven we can win games with them. We’re not going to win a championship with them, but we can win. NT can be overcome, and we still arent sure that Peters Jr. isnt the answer. WR, far and away, appears to me as our weakest position. Anyone else with me? I would love to see Dez Bryant slip to the 2nd round and have the Bills select him (there have been reports scouts are moving him down their boards for various issues).
i see it too
which is why i would love for us to get jordan shipley in the 3rd who would be a terrific slot guy and let hardy prove he can be a WR #2…..but then again I still don’t understand why the Bills would not take Terrell Owens back that is just stupid imo unless he is asking for 6.5 mil again then I would understand but I haven’t even heard that they are in talks last thing I heard was that the door was closed on that deal.
"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes
by panekattack on Mar 18, 2010 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
The door is closed on him, the Bills flat out told him that. Which I’m okay with. He might not have signed for 6.5 mil, but still more than he’s worth at this point, even though when I think about the fact that he still pulled down over 800 yards, I’m impressed. The thing I’m more upset about is that they also told Josh Reed his time was done, a guy who I always liked because he was a guy that, when you threw to him, he’s usually in a position to get simply sit down and have the first down. I definitely don’t like a WR in the first. I’d be okay to take a guy in the second, but I’d definitely prefer him to come in the third or fourth instead. I’d also love to see the Bills take Naaman late in the draft.
I too believe WR is a need, I hope it is addressed in the 4th or 5th rd...
but I am not worried about the receiving corps yet because we don’t have a “QB of the future”…
the facts are that you need a talented offensive and defensive line, with depth…you also need playmakers and an offensive leader (QB)…right now, we have neither. It is easier, cheaper, and more consistent to build the lines before taking guys who demand high salaries. Also, you risk increasing the skill players chances of failure because you aren’t done providing the necessary materials…protection and defense. We are closer to finishing our O & D lines, than we are to finding our QB and WRs…Ts,Gs, & Cs don’t need a QB to play well, while the opposite isn’t true. DEs/DTs/LBs also dont need a good QB to play well, although it helps.
by NorCal BillsFan on Mar 18, 2010 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions
We have 3 guys at QB with NFL talent and starting experience
Can you PLEASE explain this statement to me? Or are there more QB’s on our current roster than I’m aware of that have NFL talent & starting EXPERIENCE?
To answer your question on the WR position, yes, it IS a need, but I can’t put WR ahead of LT, NT, OLB…… IMO anyway. I still can see a WR being drafted by us, but NOT BEFORE any position that I already mentioned.
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Simple
All three QB’s on roster are playing in NFL and all three have started. Hence 3 guy’s with NFL talent & experience.
by buffalobacker on Mar 18, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
i’ve always been an owens fan since before he came to buffalo which is why I kind of wish we would have taken him back but he def. did not live up to that contract or the hype….I’m all for hardy and giving him a shot I just hope he doesn’t let us down is all cuz those are some pretty big shoes to fill and as we know bills fans are anything but patient these days
"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes

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