History of the ninth overall pick
by MattRichWarren on Mar 2, 2010 8:32 AM EST
in 2010 NFL Draft
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For the first time since 2006 when they picked Ohio State safety Donte Whitner, the Buffalo Bills will be selecting in the top ten in this April's NFL selection meeting. Since 1987, the Bills have selected in the top ten just twice, selecting OT Mike Williams No. 4 overall in 2002 and Whitner No. 8 four years later.
Twice in their history the Bills have held the number nine pick since the first combined AFL/NFL draft in 1967. In 1968, the Bills took wide receiver Haven Moses, a two-time Pro Bowler who topped 8,000 career receiving yards on only 448 receptions. In 1998, the Bills traded the pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars as part of the Rob Johnson trade. The Jags used that pick to select RB Fred Taylor. Taylor is fifteenth on the all-time rushing list, while Johnson... didn't work out.
What kind of player can the Bills expect to pick at number nine - should they stay at that spot - and what can they expect to pay that player? Looking at the past 25 selections at nine overall may give us a good idea.
2009 - B.J. Raji, DT, Packers
2008 - Keith Rivers, LB, Bengals
2007 - Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Dolphins
2006 - Ernie Sims, LB, Lions
2005 - Carlos Rogers, DB, Redskins
2004 - Reggie Williams, WR, Jaguars
2003 - Kevin Williams, DT, Vikings
2002 - John Henderson, DT, Jaguars
2001 - Koren Robinson, WR, Seahawks 1 PB
2000 - Brian Urlacher, LB, Bears
1999 - Chris Claiborne, LB, Lions
1998 - Fred Taylor, RB, Jaguars 1 PB
1997 - Tom Knight, DB, Cardinals
1996 - Ricky Dudley, TE, Raiders
1995 - Kyle Brady, TE, Jets
1994 - Antonio Langham, DB, Browns
1993 - Lincoln Kennedy, OT, Falcons
1992 - Tommy Vardell, RB, Browns
1991- Stanley Richard, DB, Chargers
1990 - Richmond Webb, OT, Dolphins
1989 - Sammy Smith, RB, Dolphins
1988 - Terry McDaniel, DB, Raiders
1987 - Jerome Brown, DT, Eagles
1986 - John Reinstra, OG, Steelers
1985 - Kevin Allen, OT, Eagles
It's not the most accurate means of measuring a player's contributions, but one of the most quantifiable things we can look at are accolades. How many times have these players been selected to the Pro Bowl and All-Pro teams?
Kevin Williams is the most distinguished, having been named to five All-Pro teams followed closely by Urlacher's four. Richmond Webb and Jerome Brown were twice named to the squad, and Lincoln Kennedy made it once. Still, that's only four All-Pros in a list of 25 players. The eleventh overall pick has had five All-Pros over the same period.
The Pro Bowlers are slightly more numerous, since there are most spots on that squad. Webb leads this list with seven appearances, followed by Urlacher's six, Terry McDaniels' five, and Lincoln Kennedy's three. Jerome Brown and John Henderson each made two appearances, and Koren Robinson and Fred Taylor have one each.
Three number nine overall picks are enshrined in the Hall of Fame; OT Bruce Matthews (1983), WR Lenny Moore (1956), and HB Hugh McElhenney (1952).
Contract
The contracts for rookie are not expected to change much this year. Despite the lack of a salary cap, the league is still doling out rookie caps, the maximum amount of money a team can spend on rookies. The last four contracts signed by ninth overall picks are as follows:
B.J. Raji: 5 years, $22.9M, $17.7M guaranteed
Keith Rivers: 5 years, $20.1M, $15.6M guaranteed
Ted Ginn, Jr.: 5 years, $19.6M, 14M guaranteed
Ernie Sims: 5-year, $15.735M, $12.1M guaranteed.
The yearly salaries went up by an average of about 14%. If that holds true, and there's not reason to suspect it won't, the Bills will pay any non-QB they draft at No. 9 $5.22M a year. A five year, $26.1M contract is about what you would expect.
If the Bills select a quarterback, however, that drastically skews the data. For instance, 2008 No. 3 overall pick Matt Ryan signed a six-year, $66 million contract with $34.75 million guaranteed. The previous year, Joe Thomas' contract was for a meager (in comparison) five-year, $42.5 million contract with $23 million guaranteed. For Ryan's $11M a season average, that represents a 29% increase over Thomas' $8.5M yearly total. Taking the QB skew data into account, the Bills would potentially pay their shiny new quarterback $36M over 6 years, a yearly average of $5.9M.
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Yup. Donte Whitner was in my brain. Fixed.
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by MattRichWarren on Mar 2, 2010 9:12 AM EST up reply actions
2003 - Kevin Williams, DT, Vikings
If this guy hasn’t been named to a an all pro team,that’s a shame. Good writeup and a lot of research is involved. However I feel that just becauser other team’s have struggled at drafting the 9 position,isn’t an indicator that the Bill’s will. Plus at least two of the guy’s on your board where considered huge reaches at 9 as well, in Ted Ginn Jr,and Tommy Vardell. And they were considered huge reaches on draft day.
Dunnoe how it happened but I missed him. He’s been to 5 Pro Bowls and was a member of five all-pro teams.
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by MattRichWarren on Mar 2, 2010 9:13 AM EST up reply actions
However I feel that just because other team’s have struggled at drafting the 9 position, isn’t an indicator that the Bill’s will.
Right. And some drafts are stronger than others.
Just because there’s been more success at 11 than 9 doesn’t mean that you’d want to pick at 11. If cost wasn’t a factor you’d want to pick as early as possible.
As for the salary comparison for a QB, I would think you would need to look at more than just 1 QB, particularly since Ryan was taken at 3 (unless that was done, and that was simply the example). What were the increases that Sanchez and Freeman got last year? I would think a QB at 9 would be around the midpoint of those two increases.
There wasn’t really that much more success at 11. I think for any of these picks it pretty much follows a curve of (Bust, OK, Good, Great) that starts at the top of the draft with a high % of bust and great and works its way into a better balance, before eventually working down to a high % of OK’s and Out of Football…… Does that make sense? (I have trouble wording some of this stuff sometimes)
To put it another way, at the top of the draft is boom or bust and as you work deeper into the draft and the money becomes less prohibitive, you get into depth players with the occasional pleasant surprise / diamond in the rough. It just sucks that there is so much money invested in the top of the draft that more of the raw but talented players don’t get developed.
The NFL makes so much money as a business and should be self-interested in quality of play. You would think they would finally figure out some sort of minor league / player development protocol beyond college.
There wasn’t really that much more success at 11. I think for any of these picks it pretty much follows a curve of (Bust, OK, Good, Great) that starts at the top of the draft with a high % of bust and great and works its way into a better balance, before eventually working down to a high % of OK’s and Out of Football…… Does that make sense?
Your talking about a bell curve?
The QB comparison matches out.
Sanchez at five-year, $44.5 million is a shade under 9M per year.
Glenn Dorsey was 5 year, $33M or 6.6 a year.
That’s an increase of almost 50% from 2008 to 2009.
With that being said, Matt Stafford only made a few hundred K more a year than Jake Long. I’m approximating. Last year I was on with Maybin’s salary which is why I didn’t understand his holdout much.
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by MattRichWarren on Mar 2, 2010 9:19 AM EST up reply actions
Reggie Williams
It still hurts.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 2, 2010 9:03 AM EST reply actions
It’s very interesting that with the ninth pick no team has chosen a QB. I hope that trend continues this year. The Bills should take an O or D linemen in the first round and maybe find a Qb later in the draft, give Brohm a shot and pick up some one via free agency to compete for the job. They should definitley cut Edwards, he unfortunatley has lost his way.
It’s very interesting that with the ninth pick no team has chosen a QB
Definitely failed to see that little trend.
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by MattRichWarren on Mar 2, 2010 9:20 AM EST up reply actions
My first impression, backed up by zero research, is that teams picking in the back half of the top-10 have missed out on the sure-fire franchise guys, and may have made ‘safe’ picks, trying not to get saddled with a ‘bust’ label on their pick, like, oh, say… Ted Ginn.
by Brian in Shortsville on Mar 2, 2010 9:26 AM EST reply actions
What? Vardell was a good pick by them. He suffered a pretty severe injury early on.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 2, 2010 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
And
He was the 9th pick in the draft. You expect more from the 9th pick then a career fullback. You also expect more than a guy who never averaged more than 3.8 ypc for his career.
But look at that list. There aren’t many studs. There more than enough duds. I still hold that it doesn’t matter if you pick 1st or 32nd, your #1 pick has just as much opportunity as the other guy’s at excelling or failing.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 2, 2010 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
I still hold that it doesn’t matter if you pick 1st or 32nd
Well said. Plus, the talent PICKING the talent is as important if not more important. Where you pick is dictated by the team’s performance. Who you pick is dictated by the scouting dept. and it’s ability.
"huge, big, fast, nasty...all those terms"
With the caveat that Peyton Manning’s rarely fall to #2 and Tom Brady’s rarely exist in the 6th. I still think that first-round talent is first round talent. Those guys are selected there because they’re the best player in the selecting team’s eye, usually regardless of what happens with the picks before them.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 2, 2010 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
Not sure
The DT’s and LB’s all looked pretty decent – maybe history is telling us to take McClain – assuming the top 2 x DT’s are looooooooong gone ! No OT since 1993 was surprising.
"Fan ?" You want to talk about being a fan of the Bills ? Try getting up at 3 AM every Monday to watch their games knowing they'll likely lose. Do this for 18 years and then call yourself a "fan"
1998
Surprised you guys don’t remember: 1998 Jaguars draft Fred Taylor..After the Bills traded them that pick for Rob Johnson.
shoots self
"It took twenty five years to get there, and they did it in championship style" - Van Miller 1/20/91.
Who's forgetting that albatross?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
see
second paragraph of MRW’s piece.
"huge, big, fast, nasty...all those terms"
I saw that, just surprised it wasn’t commented on.. That’s where I was going w/ that..
I’ll stop talking now..LOL..
"It took twenty five years to get there, and they did it in championship style" - Van Miller 1/20/91.
by Michael_Necci on Mar 2, 2010 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
Who wants to talk about that!?!?!?
Sometimes it’s better to repress and forget.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
At this point, I’m pretty sure that this is the only system that Rob Johnson is cut out for.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
I still hold that Rob Johnson should have been a great QB. Something whacky happened, which I have since dubbed the Buffalo Bills QB Curse. Doug Flutie, as great as he was, found it too: benching for past success.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 2, 2010 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
He was more brittle than…. something really brittle. Now there’s a metaphor.
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by MattRichWarren on Mar 2, 2010 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Break away glass ?
If you breathe heavy on that stuff it shatters. That was Rob.
"Fan ?" You want to talk about being a fan of the Bills ? Try getting up at 3 AM every Monday to watch their games knowing they'll likely lose. Do this for 18 years and then call yourself a "fan"
Maybe Chan could design a system around him...
I imagine a lot of max protection, to allow him up to 5-6 seconds to not find a receiver. Let’s do a lot of roll outs so that he slowly can be cornered by two defenders on the sideline. My centerpiece would be what I would call the “Nietzsche Gun”, where Rob would come to grips with futility as he takes a shotgun snap and stares blankly into the abyss of his own soul. He then is sacked again and again for eternity.
by PozDispenser on Mar 2, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If you were to look back and watch Rob Johnson film against Trent Edwards/Ryan Fitzpatrick film, you might be shocked to see which QB you’d choose today.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 2, 2010 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
I understand what you are saying, but...
Was Johnson that much worse than Edwards/Fitzpatrick? Maybe not. Is he a hell of a lot funnier conceptually than Edwards/Fitzpatrick? Oh yeah. I stand by the “Nietzsche Gun”.
by PozDispenser on Mar 2, 2010 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Still alot of money to spend for uncertainty
If there is one person in the draft that is a sure thing in the NFL at selection #9 then we take him. Lets get production for the value at this pick. We are rebuilding. Look at our history with these early picks as well as the other teams. Whom ever they pick at #9 and the money we pay that player needs to contribute immediately. I have no problem paying a left tackle 25M but is he going to be ready to play LT immediately, or will we need him to play the right side for a couple years. For 25 million dollars, this player needs to be a gauranteed impact player. I am still hung on Rolando McClain, Poz will just have to move to the other side. If not McClain then someone that is going to step in and be the Jarius Byrd of 2010.
This is like dumping a new puzzle from it's box. Now let's start putting the peices together. I guess this is what we all asked for.
Trade
What would it take for the Bills to trade up with the Bucs for the #3 overall?? I´m 100% sure Sam B. is gonna be a star for many years to come. He could move this franchise in the right direction and finally have a great QB.
As I´m 99% sure this won´t happen, and 96% he won´t fall to #9, then we should draft a LT no matter what.
As I said it before we should pick an Offensive player in the first round.
Sam Bradford is the QB i’d like the Bills to select. He has the name everyone knows, sure, but he looks like he’s built himself up to handle a good beating and the cold weather in B-lo.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 2, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Well if
Rick P is 100% sure… then OBD should make the move. Seriously? Can everyone stop pretending their an expert scout. Why the hell would you trade up in the draft to lose more picks and money? The Bills aren’t a QB away from the playoffs and both the offensive AND defensive lines suck. They shouldn’t go into the draft thinking they must draft offense in 1st round. Highest rated guy on board at any position gets drafted (except CB)… period.
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by S2 on Mar 2, 2010 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd
Don’t you just love it. My thoughts exactly. Impact, Immediate contribution etc……. If your a quality NFL player and lose your starting spot, you should be able to adjust and contribute in another capacity.
This is like dumping a new puzzle from it's box. Now let's start putting the peices together. I guess this is what we all asked for.
Why???
Can everyone stop pretending their an expert scout.
Where is the fun in that? Pretending is as close as most are going to get….why do you want to kill our fun? At least some people have the guts to put what they think out there for criticism. Disagree, don’t read it at all, do what ever else you want, but don’t tell people to stop giving their opinion.
And once you said “except CB”, your BPA argument lost all credibility, IMO.
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by Joe P. on Mar 2, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
recappotamus
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by Brian Galliford on Mar 2, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe I came across a bit harsh
I’m all for giving your opinion, just back it up… and I certainly wasn’t telling anyone to stop, that’s what this blog is for. I’m saying… Don’t just say your 100% sure like your freaking Nostradomus, tell me why your 100% sure. I wasn’t trying to be mean… I guess I’ve been listening to the Todd McShay’s too much and I’m just sick of everyone thinking they know everything without telling me why. I want to know why rick P thinks its a must for The Bills to use their first pick on Offense. If its the 1st round and Berry is there and the top 3 OT’s are gone, is it ok to draft a safety or is it a MUST to draft the 4th rated OT? Why? Why would that make sense when you have so many needs on both sides of the ball?
My apologies for not being clearer.
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by S2 on Mar 2, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
Good reply....no worries :-)
A married man should forget his mistakes. There's no use in two people remembering the same thing!
The Combine...
Does anyone else think that the combine has lost its luster. Yea it is good to know 40 times, actual heights & weights, vertical jumps but if a team is going into the combine trying to figure who they are going to draft from that then they are in trouble. To me the best part would be the interview where you can get a feel for what type person is that you might draft.
With all the money that is being thrown around to unproven rookies picked in the draft especially in the top 10 the combine has become a CYA for personnel directors and scouts. When the owners get upset because they gave a rookie a $30 million signing bonus and they can’t crack the starting line-up some one has to answer to it.
With the combine, when a high priced 1st rounder is a bust a PD or a scout can point to the combine and say but look he bench pressed 225 25x’s or he ran a 4.4 40!!! Most teams know 90% of their player rankings by the time the combine starts….
"Whether or not you write well, write bravely"
The Combine is nothing more than a jounalistic zoo!!!!!
Except for the opportunity to interview the players by the coaches and GM - Staff.
This is like dumping a new puzzle from it's box. Now let's start putting the peices together. I guess this is what we all asked for.
Without the combine, how would Al Davis know who to draft???????
The combine workouts are just one more way to confirm what you think you already saw from watching tape.
A married man should forget his mistakes. There's no use in two people remembering the same thing!
How would Al Davis know who to draft???????
Where ever his drool lands is the player he will pick….
"Whether or not you write well, write bravely"
Drool and the insane owner argument
Does the 40 time cause the drool, or does the insanity make him drool anyway?
A married man should forget his mistakes. There's no use in two people remembering the same thing!
The Combine
but if a team is going into the combine trying to figure who they are going to draft from that then they are in trouble
Well good thing that’s not what happens outside of Oakland then, right?
The Combine is what it is. A place to measure, workout, interview and watch prospects. No team is using the Combine as the number one tool for making draft day decisions. It’s used to confirm what is seen on tape, or in person, and to make sure guys have the athleticism needed to be taken in the draft and expected to play.
If a team scouts a CB on tape with injury concerns, sees that he has pretty decent ball skills, but speed questions, the Combine is big for this evaluation. If the player runs a poor 40, shows mediocre change of direction skills, struggles in the cone drills and shows tight hips, then the Combine evaluation has been an extremely useful exercise for teams looking at the kid. Confirming what is seen on tape is pretty important, IMO. It doesn’t negate strong play on the field, or make up for poor play. It highlights weaknesses and potential pitfalls for the player.
Most teams know 90% of their player rankings by the time the combine starts….
Even if that were true, wouldn’t using this setting to further evaluate the other 10% be of great importance to NFL teams?
Sure the Combine is overhyped because of the coverage it gets, but it’s not some fruitless exercise or meaningless to NFL teams. It still is quite important, IMO.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Kurupt--Good points...
With all the live scouting, film study and pro days at the colleges the personnel directors should have a very good idea if a guy can play whether he has good combine numbers or not. I just chuckle when I hear the oohs and ahhs about a guy running a 4.4 or some dude bench pressing 225 30x’s and people going he is moving up in the draft when their on field production left a lot to be desired. You are correct the combine does serve a purpose, I’m just not enamored with it.
"Whether or not you write well, write bravely"
Yep
It does have some merit – like for an OT, sure who cares re his 40 times, but sometimes you find a guy is more agile and better equipped to get to that second level for blocks than you though. Esp if he runs a quick 10 yd, and shuttle. Those sort of drills can help teams who might be looking for a guard in a system that “pulls” a lot – maybe his college team didn’t run those type of plays, so the drills are helpful in that case.
Of course there is too much hype on the 40 – but the interviews and some other drills can be helpful to “tweak” your board. Sure, you won’t bring a guy up from 80th to 5th on your board, but you could move your 5th rated OT to become your 3rd rated OT based on interviews, agility drills etc.
I think the combine has gotten so overhyped that now a number of people around here have gone the other way and think it has zero value – that I disagree with.
K, you are right that there is still value in the combine IMO.
"Fan ?" You want to talk about being a fan of the Bills ? Try getting up at 3 AM every Monday to watch their games knowing they'll likely lose. Do this for 18 years and then call yourself a "fan"
OK S2
If I say I´m 100 % sure that´s my point of view, an opinion that I have, that doesn´t mean the Bills should listen to what I have to say. But isn´t the reason for this page among other things for everyone to give their opinion about what they think is best for the team???
You don´t have to be a genuis to see where the Bills problems are, but other than QB I´ll say T is our biggest need “again my opinion 100% certain”.
One last thing, you´re suggesting that if Berry would steel be on the board at #9 we should take him?
well
Like I said before, I get it. I know that’s what this page is for and I even usually find myself nodding in agreement when you write stuff on here. I also agree that The Bills biggest needs are QB and T… I guess I just wanted to know why people think Bradford is a can’t miss and why The Bills ABSOLUTELY should take an offensive player with their 1st pick. I personally wouldn’t care if The Bills make a NT or any defensive player for that matter their 1st pick… assuming that player is the highest on their board… And yes, including Berry. Berry and Byrd in the secondary for the next 5 years… that’s nice (and then ship Whitner somewhere for a pick.. nothing against him but I want a playmaker). Its all good rick, wasn’t trying to get under your skin.
Hey, careful, man, there's a beverage here! -The Dude
by S2 on Mar 2, 2010 6:49 PM EST up reply actions
I’m still confused as to why so many people think ol’ Twisted Shoulders Bradford is a can’t miss and yet I see any contempt for Clausen.
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by UZ on Mar 3, 2010 5:19 AM EST up reply actions
OK
No hard feelings, My point I was trying to make is that neither Suh or McCoy are gonna be available for the #9 pick, Í´m guessing neither is Bradford, so if I´m Chan I´ll rather take a chance on a T " again supposing Bradford, Suh and McCoy are gone".
So far I just don´t see any other D player who´s worth at # 9. Nothing against Berry or Haden but I´ll rather adress the offense than the D backs.
Rolando McClain
Is about the only guy that would be worth drafting there. And he is definitely there.
Another option might be trading down to get Dan Williams.
I call it... The Avaslug!
I am the 1st and probably only official member of the David "Dr." Jones fanclub.
Syracuse Basketball 2010: Big East Champs!!! G'Orange!
by UZ on Mar 3, 2010 5:20 AM EST up reply actions
*sigh*
We should have taken Patrick Willis over Ginn.
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