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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Who does Tebow remind me of?

Tim Tebow isn't exactly a story that none of us have ever heard before. In fact, I can find you a story about a guy just about identical to the Tebow tale, named Alex Smith.

Smith played at Utah under Urban Meyer using the same spread offense that Tebow has been using the past few years. As with most Urban Meyer offenses, this offense basically killed anyone who dared to challenge it.  There was a lot of talk of him winning the Heisman trophy in 2004 (He finished 4th) along with him getting to the National Title game, which sadly never happened despite the 12-0 record because Utah wasn't covered in BCS drool. He ended his two-year college career with a 21-1 record, over 5000 yards passing with 47 touchdowns and 7 Interceptions. He also rushed for 15 TD's on over 1000 yards in that time.

Sounds to me exactly like Tim Tebow if Tebow hadn't gone to a BCS darling like Florida.

He was highly touted coming into the draft, so much so that the 49ers took him first overall. And we all know what happened after that. Three bad years followed by a benching for the entire 08 season.

Five years later, and he is finally starting to show a little potential, but his potential came with a 2-5 record despite his apparent newfound ability to throw TD's instead of 3 INTs a game. After all the "PLAYOFFS NOW" talk I've seen from the Bills fanbase, do we really need a guy to follow the Alex Smith story?

Then again, the Jaguars will probably take him and it'll be a moot point anyway.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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interesting point… I can’t agree or disagree, but it is certainly worth noting

On the hunt... Bills in the playoffs 2010

by killascript on Mar 8, 2010 6:43 PM EST reply actions  

Situationally, sure. Player type? Not even close. But I get your point, and I think it’s a good one.

People talk so frequently about Tebow’s intangibles. I love them as much as the next guy, but they’re not ironclad. I perceive pocket awareness – that innate ability to feel a pass rush from the blind side and get the ball out on time – as instinct and intangible, and Tebow’s severely underdeveloped in that area. That scares me more than his mechanics or any of the other oft-cited crap.

Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott

by Brian Galliford on Mar 8, 2010 6:45 PM EST reply actions  

I hear you there

pocket awareness and instinct was one of the initial reasons people likened Edwards over Losman, but after some bright spots, Edwards regressed and became more timid… either way, mechanics can be fixed, instinct is something that is either had, had not

On the hunt... Bills in the playoffs 2010

by killascript on Mar 8, 2010 7:26 PM EST up reply actions  

vision and confidence

Tebow exudes confidence. Vision, to see throwing opportunities before they appear (and subsequently disappear) is what I worry about with Tebow.

Don’t hold the “spread offense” argument so highly. Yes he played in the spread – and he succeeded. Does that mean he necessarily wouldn’t have had a great or good college career had he played elsewhere? Not at all. It helped his gaudy numbers. True. It makes you view his game film with a cynical eye. True.

Nothing out there suggests he won’t succeed. Everything you can measure actually contradicts that and says he is likely to succeed.

In the end, I changed my mind about them picking him in the first round because it’s pretty clear that he’s universally not expected to be taken in the first and it’s worth a shot to let him slip to the second. Beyond that… if you think he’s going in the 3rd or later… you’re in for a surprise.

i will not drinketh thy coolaid...

by kgun201 on Mar 9, 2010 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

No matter what is said from here on out, if he drops to us with the second round pick, it would be extremely hard, and possibly wrong, not to roll the dice on an extremely talented athlete that is not just a QB that will take up space on a roster. He will play in some fashion, and it very well may be QB. If Nix and Gailey take a flier on him, we might even see a trade back into the first round, because Nix will start getting fixated on it, and he and Chan both have a good feeling about the kid. Other, more polished front offices execs want a 3rd and the Bills’ second for the late first pick and the Bills grab Tebow, and have made either a huge blunder if they force the cross of the franchise on his shoulders immediately, and it will likely happen from the fans and media as Tebow dons the Jack Kemp number in camp, then the throwback jersey in one of the preseason games, and before week one, when everyone thought Edwards would be the starter, Tebow gets the nod… and the rest will be…

On the hunt... Bills in the playoffs 2010

by killascript on Mar 9, 2010 11:04 PM EST up reply actions  

better article on the subject

Here

Buffalo, that's where it's at baby. - Adam 'Pacman' Jones

by silverstreak3k on Mar 8, 2010 6:58 PM EST reply actions  

Alex Smith BLEW UP in one year though.......

which is why I had my One hit wonder comment……….

His Junior year was pretty mediocre………there is no way in HADES he would have been a number 1 over all guy had he put up just the same or even a tad better numbers his Junior year……

So is it his fault the Niners were idiots and drafted him number 1? No…….but he’s not the same as Tebow…..and that will be evident soon enough…..

You think the Niners would have rather picked Aaron Rodgers instead? probably…….

Sorry blowing up for UTAH in one season and winning one BCS game (against Pitt) is not the same as dominating at the University of Florida for 3 years as a starting QB (4 yrs total) Winning a Heisman, Winning an SEC Championship(s), Being a big part of 2 NC winning teams……….

Sorry……I dont buy it.

The only cure for a bad today is tomorrow.

by norcaliangelsfan on Mar 8, 2010 6:59 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

good point

"you just have to know there's always going to be adversity. None of these games are going to be easy. Nothing will be given to us" - Paul Posluszny

by poz on Mar 8, 2010 9:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Alex Smith was also over three years younger when drafted than Tebow is now. I don’t see the similarity.

most of my posts get deleted :(

by dzil on Mar 8, 2010 7:54 PM EST reply actions  

a 6’0 player that was drafted as a wide receiver and never played an NFL regular season game???

most of my posts get deleted :(

by dzil on Mar 8, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

eirk crouch

hey came out as a qb and was coverted to a db. same style of qb play was what i was getting at

by smov656 on Mar 9, 2010 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

No. He was originally drafted to play WR and then pegged to be a safety, but never played a single down in the NFL. He played a few minutes as 4th string QB in the CFL, but was never seriously considered as an NFL QB prospect.

most of my posts get deleted :(

by dzil on Mar 9, 2010 11:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Tebow = Danny Wurflunk

"A failure becomes just one time at bat if you refuse to let it defeat you." Marv Levy.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Mar 8, 2010 8:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Uh

You do realize that although both come from the same school, that’s about where the similarities end when it comes to wuerful and tebow right?

Buffalo, that's where it's at baby. - Adam 'Pacman' Jones

by silverstreak3k on Mar 8, 2010 9:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

We shall see.......

The similarities do not end until Tebow’s NFL career is over.
I fully realize they have different type QB styles.
I’m just not sure what Tebow’s “NFL QB” style is.
The world wonders…..

"A failure becomes just one time at bat if you refuse to let it defeat you." Marv Levy.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Mar 8, 2010 9:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, that’s not even remotely close. Sorry.

Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott

by Brian Galliford on Mar 9, 2010 10:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Danny Wuerfel I'd say

Awful Wuerfel – but I am talking worst case.

"Fan ?" You want to talk about being a fan of the Bills ? Try getting up at 3 AM every Monday to watch their games knowing they'll likely lose. Do this for 18 years and then call yourself a "fan"

by Will G on Mar 8, 2010 8:35 PM EST reply actions  

I am going to get slammed for this but...

for some weird reason he looks like Johnny Unitas to me. I am not saying he plays like him or anything…it must be the crew cut.

Compare for yourself…
http://www.projectswole.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/tim-tebow.jpg

http://pictopia.com/perl/get_image?provider_id=256&size=550×550mb&ptpphoto_id=7030773

by Rob B on Mar 8, 2010 9:26 PM EST reply actions  

yeah they do. good call

"Its always Miller Time
Whens it gonna be Sabres-Offense Time?"
- by Jsz on Mar 3, 2010 6:25 PM PST

by bflo on Mar 8, 2010 9:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Ryan Leaf.

Not in playing ability, not in player type, not even in character. Only in what he’ll become.

The more I see, the less I know.

by CanadianBillsFan on Mar 8, 2010 11:03 PM EST reply actions  

well he'll never become a number 1 pick

so the comparison sorta dies there

ryan leaf never became anything but a headache and one of the 2-3 greatest busts of all time

we the FANS the VOICE the PEOPLE the true BLOOD of the Buffalo BILLS are just doing all this SO mAYBE just MAYbe the Coach THE teAM will just see how us the FANS the the SPARTAN aka BUFARTAN we will not Surrender to know onE.
-abayarde

by uPitt_BillsFan on Mar 8, 2010 11:28 PM EST up reply actions  

im pretty sure leaf's

failures were based on his attitude and character….soooo yea. i dont see how you want to compare two guys and say that nothing about them is the same. doesnt make sense.

Buffalo, that's where it's at baby. - Adam 'Pacman' Jones

by silverstreak3k on Mar 9, 2010 1:21 AM EST up reply actions  

didn’t Leaf get busted for dealing drugs recently? Hard to imagine Tebow going down that path. Some of these comparisons are simply ludicrous.

most of my posts get deleted :(

by dzil on Mar 9, 2010 7:55 AM EST up reply actions  

I simply ment that they were both increadibly overated comming out of college and that both will be collasal flops when everything is said and done. And for the record I would love for Tebow to prove me wrong, I’m rooting for the kid. I just don’t think that he’ll ever become the QB that ppl think he is.

The more I see, the less I know.

by CanadianBillsFan on Mar 9, 2010 11:43 AM EST up reply actions  

So you said Tebow will be a "collasal flop"

yet you are rooting for him?

The only cure for a bad today is tomorrow.

by norcaliangelsfan on Mar 9, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions  

How is Tebow “incredibly overrated”? The vast majority of coaches and scouts say that he’s a longshot to be a starting QB in the NFL.

most of my posts get deleted :(

by dzil on Mar 9, 2010 11:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Honestly, Tebow doesn’t remind me of anybody. If I had to do a prospect comparison, which is about skill set and not how good the prospect is going to be, I’d use names like McNabb and Jake Plummer to compare to Tebow. Both those guys were big scramblers in college who didn’t run a ton in the pros. They were low completion % players, mostly because they were down the field passers and also because they’re not super accurate players. They take a lot of sacks, but also extended plays with their feet and made plays as a result.

I think Tebow actually makes sense for the Bills on a lot of different levels. You often see QBs succeed when they pair well with the HC. Like Sean Payton and Drew Brees in NO. Brees is the perfect fit for Payton’s offense. Tebow and Gailey seem like the right match. Southern guys who are as tough as they are upstanding gentlemen. I think Tebow desperately needs to play in a run heavy offense early in his career because I think he’ll struggle with consistency in the short and intermediate passing game. I can really picture Gailey putting together a good offense for Tebow that is boring and run heavy at first glance, but is also creative with shotgun looks and finds ways for Tebow to get the ball down the field. I think Tebow throws the best deep ball in the draft class and I don’t think it’s even close.

All that said, I’d rather Buffalo not draft Tebow. Like Brian points out with his pocket presence being raw and/or unknown, I have concerns about Tebow’s field vision. He wasn’t asked to read the whole field and I don’t think he’s particularly good at it. I know he’s a pretty good improvisor, which is a good sign, but I don’t think he’s the kind of QB who instinctually knows when a player is open or getting open. He’ll make tough throws to covered players running drag and crossing routes, but I’m far from convinced that he will ever have that natural sense to stare down the D and know where to throw the ball. Quarterbacking in the NFL is largely about the ability to read the defense and I’m not sure that’s something Tebow can accomplish based off hard work. To me, Tebow is a 2nd-3rd round prospect and I’d prefer Buffalo not roll the dice on him in the 2nd round. I honestly do love the guy though, so I won’t be super critical if Buffalo takes him in the 2nd. For me, he’d be a very easy player to cheer for.

I signed up for Second Life about a year ago. Back then my life was so great that I literally wanted a second one. In my Second Life I was also a paper salesman and I was also named Dwight. Absolutely everything was the same. Except I could fly. - Dwight Schrute

by kaisertown on Mar 9, 2010 12:35 AM EST reply actions  

too much of his improvisation involves him running it though

ive heard a couple times that he tends to not recover and get his eyes downfield when he scrambles, and instead looks for a lane to run

Damn You Urban Meyer!!

we the FANS the VOICE the PEOPLE the true BLOOD of the Buffalo BILLS are just doing all this SO mAYBE just MAYbe the Coach THE teAM will just see how us the FANS the the SPARTAN aka BUFARTAN we will not Surrender to know onE.
-abayarde

by uPitt_BillsFan on Mar 9, 2010 3:36 AM EST up reply actions  

a deer in the headlights?

Or maybe one of those guys who was a king in high school but was never as important or excelled as much afterward. He looked very nervous when asked about his throwing mechanics during the combine.

by Bill Frank on Mar 9, 2010 4:43 PM EST reply actions  

Saying Tebow is like Alex Smith is akin to saying Tee Martin is like Peyton Manning because he replaced Manning at Tennessee. :-)

by MattRichWarren on Mar 10, 2010 8:13 AM EST reply actions  

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