Okay, I have read all the reports and rumors all over the Internet for the last several weeks trying to determine what we are going to do with the #9 pick. I am going to try and play Detective and figure out who we’ll be picking with our #9 selection.
Here is a sample of the main reports that I’ve heard:
Bills want offensive tackle at #9.
Bills only think 2 offensive tackles are worth the #9 pick.
Bills want someone at #9 that is not a ‘one year wonder’.
Bills want someone that can contribute right away.
Bills may have Tebow rated higher than Clausen.
Bills will focus on tackle but if their guys are gone, they will go best player available.
Bills want to improve their pass rush.
Bills will not select Clausen at #9.
Bills want Tebow and will move up from second round to get him.
I am sure there are many more that I am not listing here. But if even half of these are true (a big stretch to assume that), then I think we can decipher the most likely pick(s) at #9.
Let’s assume that the two OT’s they have rated highest are Okung and Williams. I guess you could swap out Bulaga for Williams, or assume that OBD has 3 top rated OTs that they’d select at 9.
So, my first conclusion, if one of those three OT’s is available, they’ll be the pick.
Now, let’s assume they are all gone before we pick. I think that is a safe assumption right now. That could leave a group to choose from out of the following players: Clausen, Tebow, Spiller, Dez Bryant, Dan Williams, Anthony Davis, Derrick Morgan, Jerry Hughes, Rolando McClain, and Jason Pierre-Paul. There may be others OBD would be interested in, but I think this is a fair pool of candidates to continue the investigation.
I think we can rule out Davis due to his character issues and he also doesn’t rate in the top 2-3 OT’s. I think we can rule out JPP as a ‘one year wonder’. As much as I hate to say it, I think we can rule out Clausen as I just don’t think CHIX has him rated high enough to draft at 9 (BTW, I think they are wrong). I think McClain gets ruled out as he would not be an immediate contributor due to existing talent at ILB.
That leaves us with Tebow, Bryant, Spiller, Dan Williams, Derrick Morgan and Jerry Hughes. Unless Marshawn gets moved pre-draft, Spiller can’t be the pick as he would not be an immediate impact contributor. For similar reasons, I think Bryant is not the pick. I think CHIX is smart enough to realize with a poor OL and poor QB, Bryant would not make an instant impact on our offense.
I rule out Dan Williams now because while he’d be in instant contributor against the run, with Kyle Williams ahead of him on the depth chart, I don’t think he’ll be the impact contributor they are looking for.
So that leaves us with Tebow, Morgan and Hughes. As much as I think CHIX love Tebow, I can’t see them taking him at #9. First, he will not be an immediate contributor/impact player. Second, I think they realize they can get him later in the first. So I believe if the OT that they want is NOT there, then they’ll work hard to trade down and TT will be the pick.
But if they can’t trade down, then I firmly believe that Morgan or Hughes (probably Morgan) will be the pick at #9. I believe Schobel has already told them that he’s retiring (pure speculation on my part) and either of these guys will come in and make an instant impact on defense and be able to rush the passer.
I am still holding out hope for Clausen, but I think we’ll end up with Derrick Morgan as our pick at #9 unless we are able to trade down. If we move down, Tebow will be coming to Buffalo.