Areas of Need vs. Past Production

I know the draft has been discussed, ad nauseum.  So many things about combine results, who's rising and falling, who has medical or character issues, etc.  I think the best indicator of potential is past production.  I decided to take a look at the 4 obvious areas of need for the Bills (QB, OT, DT, Pass Rusher), check how the Bills fared in those areas in 2009, and how some of the draft prospects fared.

I am not in anyway stating that production in college automatically translates to success in the NFL.  We obviously know it's not true (see Vernon Gholston).  Plus, this comparison doesn't take into account quality of opponents, conference, etc.  But, it did bring up some interesting comparisons and correlations.  After the jump, I have a breakdown of needs areas, and possible draft prospects to fill them.

Area of Need- Quarterback:

The Bills in 2009:

30th in the league in offensive yardage per game (274 yd pg), 28th in points per game (16 ppg), 30th in pass yards per game (157 yards per game)- Jets and Browns only teams lower

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Trent Edwards, Brian Brohm combined: 2,515 yards, 17 TD, 19 INT, 58% completion, 71.7 Rating

Bills Quarterbacks vs. The Draft:

Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame 6’3”, 223 lbs, Junior

2009- 3,722 yards, 28 TD, 4 INT, 68%, 161.43 Rating (3rd in nation)

Career- 8,148 yards, 60 TD, 27 INT

Colt McCoy, QB, Texas, 6’2”, 210lbs, Senior

2009- 3,521 yards, 27 TD, 12 INT, 70.6%, 147.41 rating

4 Year Career- 13,253 yds, 112 TDs, 45 INT, 70.3%

Tim Tebow,  QB, Florida, 6’3”, 245 lbs, senior

2009- 2,895 yds, 21 TD, 5 INT, 67.8%, 14 rush TDs, 164.17 rating (1st in nation), 910 rush yards

4 Year Career- 9,285 yards, 88 pass TD, 57 rush TDs, 66% completion, 2,947 rush yards

For comparison:

Trent Edwards 2005 college stats (his best statistical year): 168 of 268 passes for 1934 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Brian Brohm 2007 (senior)- 308 of 473 passes for 4,024 yards for 30 touchdowns with 12 interceptions, giving him a QB Rating of 152.

And just for kicks:

Jason Campbell, 2009 with Redskins

3,618 yards, 20 TD, 15 INT, 86.4 rating, sacked 43 times, 64.5% completiom

The Skinny:  to me, this is the BIGGEST area of need for the Bills.  I believe all 3 quarterbacks in the draft, or a trade for Jason Campbell is a HUGE upgrade at QB.  I know many aren't in love with campbell, but no QB on the Bills in 2009 had a positive TD-INT ratio.  Campbell put up numbers eclipsing our entire team, on a Redkins squad arguably worse than the Bills.

Area of Need: Offensive Tackle:

30th in the league in yardage (274 per game), 15th in rushing per game (117 yards per game), 8th in league in yards per carry (4.4 yards per carry). 1,867 rush yards, 6TD

I must admit I was surprised at this point, thinking maybe our patchwork line wasn't as bad as I thought.  Granted, much of it was Fast Freddy making something out of nothing.

However, the next few statistics are where our dire situation on O-line in 2009 really came to light:

4th most sacks allowed(46), 2nd Most QB Hits allowed (103, JAX was 1st with 126, big drop off after Bills), 30th in the NFL converting 3rd/4th down and less than 2.

I knew the sacks were bad, and I knew we weren't good on 3rd/4th and short.  But 103 QB Hits and 30th on short conversions really highlighted just how bad our line was.

Now, in looking at OT prospects (of which I examine 5), there's no way outside the combine to judge them individually based on their 2009 performance.  So, as we are examining past perfromance, I thought I'd break down how the lines of these individuals 5 teams performed in 2009.  It's an inexact science, but couple that with the fantastic physical attributes and tape the authors at Rumblings have broken down, and you get a fuller picture.

Bills Line vs. Draft Offensive Tackles:

Russell Okung, OT, Ok. State 6’6” 305 lbs, senior

Oklahoma State O'Line- 11 sacks allowed(4th), 4.4ypc (50th), 188 rush ypg(22nd)

Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma, 6’5”, 318 lbs, senior

Oklahoma O-Line- 15 sacks (16th), 3.6 ypc (91st), 134.6 rush yards per game (77th)

Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers, 6’6”, 325 lbs, junior

Rutgers O'Line- 40 sacks (8thworst), 3.6 yps (90th), 134.4 ypg (78th)

Bryan Buluga, OT, Iowa, 6’6”, 312 lbs, senior

Iowa O'Line- 29 sacks (tied 81st), 3.3 ypc (106th), 114.2 ypg (99th)

Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland, 6’7”, 310 lbs, junior

Maryland O-Line- 36 sacks (15thworst), 3.1 ypc (110th), 105.8 ypg (105th)

the Skinny:

I was surprised by just how bad the Maryland and Rutgers lines were.  The question, do you feel comfortable with an amazing physical speciman off of a terrible college line?  I think performance speaks much more highly of Willian, Okung, and Buluga as a safer bet  Again, it's not an exact science, just data to toss in with all the individual work outs they've done.

Area of Need: Defensive Tackle

Quite Simply, the Bills were terrible against the run.  Ranking 30th in yards per carry (4.7 ypc), and 30th in yards per game (156.3 ypg).  They made up for it with the league's 2nd ranked pass defense (184.2 ypg) and the 2nd most INTs (28).  However, with a swiss cheese defense on the ground, why would anyone throw?  On a positive note they led the league in tackles.  The negative side, thats because they led the league in defensive plays.

Bills Rush Defense vs. Defensive Tackle DraftProspects

I'm going under the assumption that Suh and McCoy are off the board (I feel pretty good about that assumption).  Here are my personal 3 favorites after that.

Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee 6’3”, 327 lbs, senior

2009- 62 tackles, 30 solo, 32 ast, 2 sacks

Career 153 tkls, 6 sacks, 69 solo tackles

Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama 6-5, 354 lbs, senior

2009- 28 tackles, 12 solo, 16 ast, 0 sacks

Arthur Jones, DT, Syracuse 6-4, 291 lbs, senior

2009 (7 games)- 18 tackles, 12 solo, 1 sack

Career- 144 tackles, 89 solo, 5 sacks

The Skinny:

I for one, believe the 3-4 Switch automatically will help in run defense.  But, as has been discussed, as much as I love Kyle Williams, any of these three would be a huge upgrade at DT.  I was suprised by how BIG Cody really is.  I just worry that he only did it for one season, and whetehr he has teh work ethic to keep the weight down and be dominant.  Hard not to be impressed by Williams productivity.  After this comparison, I'd be much less upset if we took him at 9.  I like Jones in the 2nd or 3rd, great production, though a bit small for 3-4 NT.  he'll need to add some weight, which he could do with his large frame.

Area of Need: Pass Rush

If you want more in depth, check the SackSeer read Brian posted.  That was excellent.  The Bills actually ranked 18th in the league with 32 sacks in 2009.  They also had 28 interceptions and were 4th in passes defended (109), both aided by what I perceived as an improved pass rush from 2008.  I have faith these numbers will be even better with the 3-4, I love the idea of Maybin outside.  But, if Schobel does retire, this need skyrockets.

Bills Pass Rush vs. Draft Ends/OLBs:

Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech, 6-4, 275 lbs, junior

2009- 52 tkls, 37 solo, 21 tackles for loss (16 solo), 12 sacks, 2 forced fumbles

Career- 112 tackles, 72 solo, 18 sacks

Jerry Hughes, LB/DE, TCU, 6-3, 257 lbs, senior

2009- 58 tkls, 38 solo, 21 tackles for loss (12 solo), 11 sacks, forced fumble

Career- 142 tkls, 82 solo, 2 forced fumb, 3 int

Jason Pierre-Paul, LB/DE, South Florida, 6-6, 265 lbs, junior

2009 (only year of playing)- 42 tackles, 26 solo, 19 tkls for loss (14 solo), 6 sacks, 1 INT (TD)

Sergio Kindle, DE/LB, Texas, 6-4, 255, senior

2009- 55 tkls, 38 solo, 18 tkls for loss (12 solo), 6 sacks

Career- 148 tkls, 102 solo, 16 sacks (10 in 2008), forced fumble

The Skinny:

I had never even heard of Jerry Hughes until Brian posted something on him.  Now I love the guy.  Would be fine taking him at 9.  Any of the others, I'd wait until round 2 or trade back into Round one.

So, that's that.  I've gone on too long, feel free to rip me apart.  Remember, I'm not saying college production tranIates directly to success.  But, I do believe it's a better indicator then some of these work out warriors who become busts. 

Personally, I believe we MUST get Tebow, McCoy or Clausen in the draft, or trade for Campbell.  That is our biggest need and the biggest improvement we could make.  I just can't wait for it to be over, so we can stop worrying about it.

Have at it!