Golden Rules of the NFL Draft
by Der Jaeger on Apr 22, 2010 8:29 AM EDT
in 2010 NFL Draft
Email
PrintDraft day is my favorite day of the year, and this is my 21st year watching and following the draft. Over that time, I've put together a set of draft day guidelines.
It's nothing scientific. My list isn't deep on logic. It's just historical trends that I've picked up upon. Consider it something akin to Parcells' draft guidelines for quarterbacks: taken at face value. With that, here's my draft guidelines:
1.) Never pass on a franchise quarterback if you don't already have one. This is a pretty easy one to figure out. The league is a passing league that revolves around the quarterback. Consistently good teams have franchise quarterbacks.
2.) Draft off your board and rankings, whatever they are. At least you'll be consistent. Draft boards are different for every team. Regardless, I've seen teams get in trouble when they get away from their draft board. Roscoe Parrish is a great example of this. Teams have also hit big by sticking with their draft board, no matter what the TV prognosticators say. Cincinnati had a great experience with Levi Jones, despite what Mel Kiper had to say about the pick.
3.) Never reach for need. Unless that player is a quarterback. Having blue-chip depth at a position is better than a red-chip starter. It's better to have two great linebackers than a great linebacker and an above-average tackle, even if you need a tackle. If drafting the better player means you end up with two great players but only one position for him to play, trades can always be made.
4.) When the best players available have similar grades, only then pick the player that fills a need. If your draft grades for two or more available players are close when it's your turn to select, then draft for need.
5.) Build from the football out, according to your system. This rule mostly applies for the third day of the draft (used to be the second day). Later in the draft, lots of players will have similar grades. Focus a lot of energy from the football out. This rule also applies to teams that go with the WR over the lineman with similar grades in the first round.
6.) When you have no idea what to do with a pick, select a pass rusher or offensive lineman. Teams like the Steelers and Patriots collect linemen, particularly later in the draft. If you're stuck with the pick and have multiple directions to go, it's hard to go wrong with a lineman.
7.) Unless you can draft a sure-fire All-Pro running back, don't draft a RB in the first round. Unless you have Barry Sanders or Adrian Peterson available when you select, pass on a running back, regardless of the grade. Good running backs can be found later in the draft.
8.) Running back should be the last high pick added to the team, as their careers are shorter. The idea is to build a contender, then add the running back last. If you add the running back early, you'll end up drafting another running back a few years later.
9.) Don't draft a talented player with character issues. Let someone else draft him, and if he proves himself and stays out of trouble, you might be able to sign him as a free agent. If he busts, then it's no loss to your organization. A lot of organizational energy gets wasted on Ryan Leaf-types. Even guys like Marshawn Lynch are to be avoided.
10.) Evaluate toughness. Toughness matters more than combine numbers on 3-and-short. Toughness matters when you're in the later stages of a big game.
11.) Evaluate leadership and character. Particularly in your quarterbacks. Leadership and character bring teams back from deficits, in games and in seasons. A great leader or two can galvanize an average team with high character players, and make it great.
12.) Evaluate competitiveness. A competitive player seeks to actively get better. You want constant improvement from your team. A team with players that are competitive will continue to grow and get better. In game, you get high effort. Teams full of competitive players rarely get blown out.
Summary
These are the factors that I'll be looking for during the draft. While these aren't air tight guidelines, they've worked for me over time. Take care and have fun!
23 comments
|
5 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Excellent!!!
Let’s see how the Bills fared since 2000 by following the 5 Golden rules of drafting a player in round 1….
1) Never draft a reach to fill a need
2) Never draft a player that is a character risk
3) Never Never draft a work-out warrior with lack of production.
4) Be very wary of a medical risk
5) Make sure the coaches are on board with the pick
2000—Erik Flowers (Bust)—-Work-out Warrior, flew up the draft boards based on his work at the combine.
2001—Nate Clements (above average)—If Nate could have played the Phins every week he would be in the HOF.
2002—-Mike Williams (Bust)—-Lardass was a need pick, the Bills O-line was horrid, the Bills by-passed Bryant McKinnie,
the best OT in the draft. The intention was good the results were brutal!
2003—Willis McGahee (average)—Big Red Flag after a devastating knee injury in a college bowl game and the Bills were worried about Travis Henry getting suspended. With that gruesome knee injury hard to imagine Willis getting picked before the 3rd round if at all.
2004(1a)—Lee Evans- (average)—I say average because I feel Evans has never been able to show his true talent because of the coaching and QB carousel. Was drafted to team with Moulds after Price was traded in "03" and Josh Reed was a better slot WR then on the outside. The ironic thing is Moulds left after the "05" season and Price was brought back.
2004 (1b)—JP Losman-(bust)—-Bills needed a mobile QB and traded a no#1 in #05 to the Cowboys to move back into round 1. JP’s first training camp he was injured and never could get into a groove. Instead of having JP play behind Bledsoe for a couple of years the Bills brain trust jettisoned Drew after the "04" season and handed the job to JP. In "06 JP finished strong an looked like he had turned the corner then the bottom fell out in "07 and he was gone after "08.
2005-no number 1 pick. Top pick Roscoe Parrish round 2….
2006—(1a)—-Donte Whitner (average) The Bills with the number 8 pick take………. SS Donte Whitner!!! When they desperately needed DT’s because they let Pat Williams walk after "04" and Sam Adams after "05" They did sign DT Larry Tripplet—-are you done laughing at that brilliant move.
2006(1b)—Big John McCargo (Bust)—the Bills traded their 42nd &73rd;picks to move back into the 1st round. The Bills hit on 2 of the no-no’s—McGottago was a reach and projected as late 2nd or mid 3rd round pick. Plus, he had injury concerns in college. Guess what, the injuries have followed him right into the Pro’s.
2007-Marshawn Lynch—(average) — Lynch was a need pick based on the Bills giving up on McGahee and trading him to the Ravens. There was a character question coming out of Cal when he was accused of assaulting his former girlfriend. The charge was dropped due to lack of evidence. Let’s see he has already been suspended, been involved in a hit & run and was accused of taking $20 from a woman—-Hmmmmmmmmmm.
2008—Leodis McKelvin—(too early to tell) - a need pick, the Bills developed Jabari Greer for 5 years then let me walk due to contract demands. They had to have a corner after letting Clements go after the "06" season and knowing they had no intention of signing Greer.
2009—Aaron Maybin—-(too early to tell)—-I’ve heard Nix say he won’t go after 1 year wonders. Was he talking about Maybin? Who made the call on this pick?
"Rock and roll is the greatest music that’s ever been. Or ever will be."
Jerry Lee Lewis
by Goose22 on Apr 22, 2010 8:06 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
You forgot Eric Wood.
"It took twenty five years to get there, and they did it in championship style" - Van Miller 1/20/91.
by Michael_Necci on Apr 22, 2010 8:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice Post.
I really really really liked your 1st point.
Have I mentioned that I think the Bills should draft Clausen at 9?…. Oh ..I have?
"It took twenty five years to get there, and they did it in championship style" - Van Miller 1/20/91.
Never pass on a franchise quarterback if you don’t already have one.
Yep, keep hearing this over and over, again. Just would like to know who has the silver ball that shows who, if anyone, in this years draft is a franchise QB.
"the true is we havent had SQUAT, SQUISHY,SAQUASUM SAQGUANDO, DIDLY DORI BING TURY CRAP" - abayarde
"franchise QB"
How are any of the QB’s in this draft franchise QB’s? All of them have issues of some type.
Every single QB every year has “issues”. Analysts go through these guys with such a fine-toothed comb that even things that don’t seem like issues get brought up as issues.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
by WhyBillsWhy on Apr 22, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
REC'D
I guess the Bills should be really good at drafting by now, if they learn from their mistakes…
I got nothing.
by Jason from OH-IO on Apr 22, 2010 8:42 AM EDT reply actions
Build from the football out
OL, DL, QB. How about from the front office out?
Flowers, Williams, Losman, McCargo, Maybin. It’s not like they haven’t tried.
That's mostly a point for later rounds
When the grades for players are much closer.
That rule doesn’t apply much in the first round.
Quit, don't quit? Noodles, don't noodles? You are too concerned about what was and what will be. There is a saying: yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift. That is why it is called the "present." --Oogway
Your points, especially the last few, sound like an argument for Tebow
And I don’t disagree, it just sounds that way.
Mmmph rrgh prrmf! - someone with his mouth gagged
Go Jazz! Go Hogs! GO BILLS!
No argument for Tebow
Argument for guy with character, competitiveness, etc. Think Kyle Williams. Think the early 90’s Bills. Think the Pats earlier in the decade.
Quit, don't quit? Noodles, don't noodles? You are too concerned about what was and what will be. There is a saying: yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift. That is why it is called the "present." --Oogway
My one draft guideline
Is have beer. That way you can convince yourself of anything.
The player I would like least at #9 would be my sister’s cat, Captain Creamsicle. She does have a great work ethic and agility, but I’m really concerned that at 9 lbs., she’s too small to play safety in the NFL. She also bites way too often on play action and is easily distracted by someone waving string in the crowd. Lastly, her wonderlic score was pretty awful, answering "meow meow meow" for most of the questions- Dr. Brackish Okun
Potentially
Think about it in terms of the 49ers of the early 80’s. Ronnie Lott was a great player. But it was his high scores in items 10-12 that really forged the 49ers into a championship defense. Before Lott, the 49ers got beat a lot defensively; after, the 49ers became much tougher to play against.
Quit, don't quit? Noodles, don't noodles? You are too concerned about what was and what will be. There is a saying: yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift. That is why it is called the "present." --Oogway
rec'd
I agree with pretty much everything you have here so that’s good.
I think this one is super duper important though:
Never reach for need
while the franchise QB points are especially fundamental – never ever reach for need – that’s not how you build a team.
We got the tools, We got the talent
Love everything you put together DJ.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
Tweet
Buffalo Rumblings
by MattRichWarren on Apr 22, 2010 10:43 AM EDT reply actions
Rule #1 is true
Never pass on a franchise QB.
What too many Bills fans are neglecting is that just because someone is ranked in the top two to four quarterbacks for this draft, that does NOT mean they are a franchise QB. This is a weak class for QBs.
Tebow is not the answer and once again the Bills will be the laughing stock of the league if they pick him in the first round, much less at #9.
I cannot stand another 4-5 years of losing/rebuilding, which is what we’re going to be facing if we pick Clausen or Tebow. Let’s build up the O-line and D-line, pick a QB in rounds 2-4 and wait until there are real franchise QBs in next year’s draft. By then maybe we’ll even be able to protect him.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
SBNation.com Recent Stories
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- Roger Goodell wants Wi-Fi in every stadium
- Plaxico Burress wants to workout for the Dolphins; Dolphins don’t want Plaxico Burress
- NFLPA files collusion claim against NFL, claiming salary cap arrangement in uncapped year
- Donald Driver compared winning ‘Dancing With The Stars’ to winning Super Bowl
- Report: Most NFL players would have no problem with an openly gay teammate
