Why Nix was Correct

by pastj12345 on Apr 27, 2010 11:20 PM EDT

This is a little late and probably written about enough times, but I haven't had enough time the last few days to give this a shot (curse you Alcohol and Sabres). There has been a pretty large debate on what Nix did this past weekend. Why on earth would the man not draft the 3rd best tackle in the draft at 9, why wouldn't he take Clausen or Tebow at 9 or even 41?!?! Why would he draft Troup in the second and not Mount Cody or Dan Williams in the first? Can he already be skating on thin ice with Bills Nation?? Here is my attempt to explain his logic through my eyes. And apologies in advance for not being an eloquent writer.

First I would like to say that drafting players is an art form, it's not based on science. Yes I know they run the 40, bench press, sit in a giant eggs that tells them their exact body fat percent on their left pinky, but Coaches, GMs, Scouts watch the players (most of us do too on tv) game tapes, live, at a practice or at private sessions. They listen to how they talk, who they hangout with, what kind of grades they had, if they lived with both parents or just one, maybe neither. They want to know how they went from a child playing sports to a Heisman candidate. Was it easy for them or did they fight challenges the entire way? The staffs take all that information and then they look at their numbers, their speed, all the good stuff we get to read about or watch on the NFL network. Then they make a decision that will affect the team, their job, and their fans. This has to be one of the greatest art forms ever to figure this out, there is so many different things the coaching staff and front office needs to take in before it makes a good judgment on a guy. So when a guy like Nix chooses a player there is a reason and purpose for him doing so. I believe he wants guys that will add great value to the team maybe right away or down the road. He likes hard nosed guys that love to play. He will have a great head on his shoulders and understands that nothing comes easily. All of those things help make a good player, obviously natural talent helps a great deal too. These players should payoff in the end for the team, his job, and to us as fans.

Now does Nix care if we understand his player selection, absolutely not, he looks out for this team. He wants a Super Bowl champion team in Buffalo NY. He knows the importance of having a solid team whether the News rips him or fans put up a billboard. So this being his first year as a GM and have a recently hired Head Coach in Gailey, Nix began searching for the best possible way to fix our problems the fastest way and also maintain a long term solution. So obviously not a lot going on in Free Agency. While building the teams plan of attack for the draft Gailey decided to throw out our 4-3 cover 2 with a Miami style 3-4. Prior to this we had major issues at QB, OT, DT, OLB, DE, WR, TE in no particular order. With the switch we still have the offensive problems, but on defense there is an issue of NT, DE, OLB, ILB, plus depth at all those positions. Most of our team has never played in a 3-4 and some may fit and other just don't play the part.

Weeks before the draft the Bills staff have probably created hundreds of mockups, trade scenarios, undrafted free agent prospects, potential free agents cut post draft, etc. This is where I think Gailey wanted something from Nix. He wanted his play maker that can go day 1, he wanted a face for this franchise that will resemble our past success. Gailey wanted a guy that leads by example on and off the field. There are probably 2 players that fit this description and really only one that will be a sure fit. Bradford who went #1 and CJ Spiller. Sammy B in my opinion was good, but still will needs a season of learning. Spiller is lighting, a game changer great hands and a guy that will come to play every down. DT/NT, LT, DE, OLB, and QB are all needs, but I think Nix gave Gailey his player of choice. Yes we have 2 pretty good runningbacks, but neither have the super star ability. Fred Jackson, who i love, will never get that opportunity to be a feature back, Lynch ruined his moment the day he had a loaded gun in his car. That doesn't mean he's a bad back, just a clown outside of football and Nix nor Gailey and especially Ralph Wilson will never have a guy like that as your player who represents the organization. I will not say Evans is that person either, due to performance on the field. Again, I truly believe no other QB was an option for this team and Buffalo does not have a true super star already on the team. So right away this makes a few decisions for the draft order and players on our team. 1- we will more than likely not draft a QB early. 2- Edwards or Brohm will be the starter. Also note we have 3 guys all have some NFL game experience.

Why not DT or LT at 9 then... Simple, Gailey wanted an offensive star first and Dan Williams was the only guy going in the first that fits for NT. If we did try to move up later in the first I think Williams was the man Buffalo was going for. Now Left Tackle, this is where most fans get lost. So hear me out and think about it before you start ripping me. The top 2 Tackles are off the board. they are also probably the best to play Left Tackle that was drafted in the first round. There was a third tackled moving up the Fan boards and he fit the description of a lunch pale Buffalo Bills blue collar player. Bulaga, a tough guy with similar attributes of Eric Wood. Could it be true we could have one of the meanest lines in the NFL right? Not so fast guys. Like I said before we want a superstar from day one. Bulaga is a hard worker, but is not a perfect LT and I think that's all it took in the decision, that simple. Nix and Staff didn't grade Bulaga like most couch GMs. He was also going to be the third off the board which makes me a little nervous if i am paying him top 10 money. will this guy live up to expectations at 9?

Now it really takes a turn for the wost in most fans eyes. We took an Runningback in round 1, Tebow is already off the boards, but our prayers we answered with Clausen and McCoy falling to 41, not to mention every other big name that fell out of the first. We didn't even need to trade up!!! POW!!!! right in your face, Torrell Troup Nose Tackle. WTF?!?! :) I think people were throwing up, crying, screaming, hitting, or all of the above. What just happened, how could Buddy do this to us. Again Nix wanted Day 1 starters early on. But this is where 90% of the fans don't get it, Nix made the executive decision to go Defensive line in the draft rather than offense. I personally loved this idea. Simple logic from Nix again. Buffalo has 2 tackles on the team that can start from day one. Are they the next Orlando Pace or Tony Boseli, no, but none the less Buffalo has two starters. Nose Tackle is the most important position in a 3-4, the Bills do not have one. Kyle Williams though similar in weight to Troup is not suited to be a full time starter. So why Troup and not Cody then? Troup was the only one that would come in and be able to play for at least 20 plays. He is all muscle, in great condition and most importantly wants to be a nose tackle. Cody is just overweight. Yes he is good, yes he could be dominant at times, but the man cannot play half a game in his current shape. Cody fell probably into a perfect place, a rotation with Nagata in Baltimore. Nix once again kept it simple and straight forward, a starter right away and a guy he feels will not need motivation to perform. This is where the fork in the road continues.

Round 3, while people still in shock of Troup, Mr. McCoy was sitting in front of us at 74. Without question the Bills and Nix did the correct thing, Alex Carrington DE. What no OT in the first or second, no QB in the Second or third, how can we pass on Clausen and Colt? Fire NIX!!! haha. Well Nix saw a perfect 3-4 DE that will be a rotational starter day 1. Great Character guy that fills a tremendous need. I don't think many disliked this pick, except for the Colt McCoy fans. sorry.

The rest of the draft. This is where I feel Nix knows there are no true starters anymore so Buffalo needs to get the best player available for depth and Special Teams. Every guy taken fourth down will fill critical needed positions. WR, ILB, OLB, QB, T, and G are all places that this site has talked about.I think most of you just wanted a different order taken.

Nix however took the logical simplistic approach with a slight hitch, fill the needs Buffalo needs most to improve as quickly as possible and take the greatest playmaker in the 1st. I would say mission accomplished. Was there some guys we may have missed out on of course, but I would say he did as much as possible without performing a Belicheck like draft with 5 trades along the way.

So people please think about what I believe Nix and Gailey were trying to do, Keep it simple and get each pick spot on with minimal risk. Could Clausen or McCoy or even Bulaga become franchise players, of course, but not for Buffalo. not in this draft. Overall Buffalo had too many holes to fill, but Nix made the smart decision to get the right defensive linemen for Buffalo, smart, strong, hard working guys. I'd say that sounds like a Buffalo blue collar kind of guy, and oh by the way Spiller is the most electric player in the draft. Not bad for a 70 year old first time GM.

Go Bills!!!

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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8 wins later

this will sound good to me. Would be nice to beat NE at least once as well. Nix had a great comment about maybe they should get 3 picks at that spot in the first but it doesn’t work that way. One player one pick. If we trade back to 15 or 24 we not only miss Spiller but aren’t assured of anyone there ( He who musn’t be mentioned). The switch to a 3-4 made us draft this way except for the first pick. We need to remember that we ran all over the Pats in game one with the same o-line we have now. If Gailey can get Trent or whomever to get the ball downfield, and w/o getting killed will largely be set up by the run. Lets also remember when the Giants won the SB they rotated a ton of d-linemen at Brady and the Bills can now do that. Time to get excited? We’ll see. But not time to be upset. Its like going back to school after christmas with the present you didn’t think you wanted but now wouldn’t trade. Peace

by JReesor on Apr 28, 2010 12:09 AM EDT reply actions

Nice

Good logic. rec’d

by buffalo_bills on Apr 28, 2010 8:33 AM EDT reply actions

I enjoyed the read Pastj- rec'd

Well said and I agree with your opinions in this article.

I’m not sure that I’d call it an art form, I think there is a lot of hard work and the difference between the good ones and the bad ones is the importance they put on each data element. For example some will value the conference that the kid played in above being a senior or having graduated.

I think one of the most important things is to not think that you can change who an individual is, if a kid has displayed bad work ethic his whole life, even if he has a ton of talent, he will always be lazy and some GMs are so cocky that they think that they somehow change the kids.

There is an underlying trend in our draft crop this year and that is maturity and hard work ethic. I for one am ecstatic at the fact that we managed to draft players that really fit needs, weren’t reaches and are all mature and hard working.

Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience

by keysh67 on Apr 28, 2010 8:34 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

he will always be lazy and some GMs are so cocky that they think that they somehow change the kids.

rec’d

i’ll take hard worker over talent more often than not

We got the tools, We got the talent

by J2 on Apr 28, 2010 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions

nice read

by Mindbender14 on Apr 28, 2010 8:44 AM EDT reply actions

rec'd

by oompaloompa on Apr 28, 2010 10:26 AM EDT reply actions

Excellant

by Bob on Apr 28, 2010 10:56 AM EDT reply actions

Draft

Most if not all picks are crapshoots. That said to draft players with good character and work ethic is possible and I believe Buffalo did fairly well.

by buffalobacker on Apr 28, 2010 11:21 AM EDT reply actions

good read

finaly positive feedback. the crying from fans and the negative attitudes make me not want to read there is a reason they get paid to do a job and we dont lets see were it goes its going to take time but a different coach and game plan could make a winner with what we have we are not the same mundane crew as with jauron go bills

by goodberry on Apr 28, 2010 11:49 AM EDT reply actions

thanks for the positive feedback guys

Offensively we are going to be better by default, we have an OC on the team and a QB coach. Some how we were missing those last year.

by pastj12345 on Apr 28, 2010 12:09 PM EDT reply actions

great read

finaly someone see’s the big picture.

FRANK

by fyoungpop on Apr 28, 2010 12:10 PM EDT reply actions

REC'D Great post

You could not be more spot on. We can all speculate on why Clausen, Bulaga, Cody, McCoy, and C. Thomas fell in the draft (all big name players at key positions of need that have been tossed about as possible top picks for Buffalo), but without some inside information we will never know. What we do know is that we were not the only team that passed (multiple times on some) on these players at the value that the draft experts gave to them. Now there are some bonehead owners, and GM’s out there we have had some here too that fall into the hype, and blindly go get their guy no matter what the cost then we all find out latter how wrong they were.(Losman anyone!!) Now we have a GM that actually can evaluate talent,and for whatever reason passed on these guys as did many other teams and some would throw him under the bus. Not me I was as shocked as everyone about how this draft went down, and my first reaction when Clausen was available at #41 was Wow I cant believe how lucky we are now we can get our QB, and we already have a great RB and a DT in the third will make this a great draft!!! Yes my first thought was what ???? Then when I thought about it I realized he is sticking to his draft stratagy, and on his board (right or wrong) Clausen might still be a reach at #41. Troup obviously was not. I like how you brought out all the character issues that they get to see better than the draft experts, and we fans, and how that can effect where they might be on the board.

by jbbillfan on Apr 28, 2010 1:14 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks

The character issues and coaches getting to know the players is very underrated in my opinion. Hearing Buddy Nix talk about Troup and saying he’s a great enough person that he wanted to take home with him whether or not he’s a good football player (he said that’s a bonus) really shows me how important it is to Buddy and probably the rest of the coaching staff. I also just read C.J. Spiller is a speaker at his church, I know that doesn’t prove anything but, he’s obviously well enough respected in his community to be doing something like that. Coached and GMs see that and know it also translates on the field.

by pastj12345 on Apr 28, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the real question we need to ask is

was his mother a prostitute?

-"...Dude, Marshawn, does Tom Brady get hyphy?"
-"What!!?"

by KGun on Apr 28, 2010 1:40 PM EDT reply actions

Ya know...

I’m sorry for that dipsh!t to have asked that question of Bryant… Just makes me want to slap the dog p!55 out of him, for him.. By accounts, Dez handled it great.. I’m afraid I woulda pounced!!!!

The draft dawns a new year for Buffalo Bills fans, so let optimism reign supreme!!! After all, we are now, UNDEFEATED!!!!

by Cinga on Apr 28, 2010 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I like the article, really nice write up, and I whole heartedly agree

I was born in Buffalo, and NO, it's not a suburb of New York City

by Ghetts on Apr 28, 2010 2:03 PM EDT reply actions

Anyone have a link on this?

If we did try to move up later in the first I think Williams was the man Buffalo was going for.

Nix acknowledged that they tried to move back into the first round. He did not, to my knowledge, give any indication as to what player he was pursuing. I have heard many times people claim that it was for Williams and I was wondering if anyone had anything more concrete on that that I might have missed.

I ask becuase during post-draft interviews, Modrak and Nix both claimed that Troup was the DT that they liked the most. The video is on buffalobills.com.

Thou shall not drinketh thy KoolAid...

by kgun201 on Apr 28, 2010 3:00 PM EDT reply actions

It’s speculation. He doesn’t need to link.

You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on May 1, 2010 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions

The only other player it could have possibly been was Jerry Hughes.

Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott

by Brian Galliford on May 1, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Well

I ask becuase during post-draft interviews, Modrak and Nix both claimed that Troup was the DT that they liked the most. The video is on buffalobills.com.

They aren’t going to say something about how Troup was their consolation prize, now are they? Remember when Levy and/or Jauron said they thought Poz was a better LB prospect than Patrick Willis or Lynch over Peterson? Same type of situation.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on May 1, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

So basically

Remember when Levy and/or Jauron said they thought Poz was a better LB prospect than Patrick Willis or Lynch over Peterson? Same type of situation.

Lying to the point where only the most gullible of fans would believe them.

Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!

by Joe P. on May 1, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Or maybe...

just maybe, that is what they thought? Right or wrong!

by mikeo76 on May 1, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I do not have a source

I based this off the comments that Buffalo was not taking Tebow late in the first but they did try to move up late in the first round. So I assumed they wanted the top DT and we missed so we took Troup. GMs and Coaches always say the got their players so I am not sure. But I guessed with the assumption.

by pastj12345 on Apr 28, 2010 4:34 PM EDT reply actions

Troup

After the fact – admittedly – I’ve looked at Troup a little more critically and I’ve come to the conclusion that he is capable of collapsing the pocket, not just holding the point. I think with a season or two in a pro strength and conditioning program teams may just have to double him to keep him out of the backfield.

Thou shall not drinketh thy KoolAid...

by kgun201 on Apr 28, 2010 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I hope that happens

we haven’t had a dominating d-lineman since Pat Williams..who we never should have gotten rid of…

by pastj12345 on Apr 28, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions

mature and hard working

not only mature and hard working but 2 of these guys were defensive play of the year in their respective conferences. Moats and Battan.

by topguns on Apr 28, 2010 5:21 PM EDT reply actions

Good post pastj!!

Very well written – I also believe Buddy and Chan had a very well thought – out plan. They picked talented players with character. Needs filled. Our QB situation will work itself out. I’d rather have that and lose than win with thugs……

Love those Bills but we're tired of losing......

by coolness1 on Apr 29, 2010 8:30 PM EDT reply actions

This Logic is flawed.

The top 2 Tackles are off the board. they are also probably the best to play Left Tackle that was drafted in the first round. There was a third tackled moving up the Fan boards and he fit the description of a lunch pale Buffalo Bills blue collar player. Bulaga, a tough guy with similar attributes of Eric Wood. Could it be true we could have one of the meanest lines in the NFL right? Not so fast guys. Like I said before we want a superstar from day one. Bulaga is a hard worker, but is not a perfect LT and I think that’s all it took in the decision, that simple. Nix and Staff didn’t grade Bulaga like most couch GMs. He was also going to be the third off the board which makes me a little nervous if i am paying him top 10 money. will this guy live up to expectations at 9?

So what if he is the 3rd rated? Chan said he wanted a fast as a waterbug scatback, that’s what he wanted and he got it, now if the Raiders take Spiller at 8 which is something I thought might happen due to crazy al, who knows perhaps we get Bulaga by Nix.

But the reason the logic is flawed is let’s go back to the 2004 draft.

The top 3 consensus QBs are Manning, Rothlisberger, and Rivers, though not necessarily on all draft boards in that order. Manning goes at 1, Rivers at 4, Rothlisberger at 11, who would be dumb enough to take the 3rd QB when the BPA available at another position, Pittsburgh must still be kicking themselves to this day for taking the 3rd best QB, oh wait, what’s that? They won two super bowls? with the 3rd best QB??? Well at least they have 1 superbowl between them with the first two taken.

I know, I know, QB, LT Apples and Oranges.

OK then,

Lets go Back to the 2009 draft.

The LTs taken are

Jason Smith Rams
Andre Smith Bengals
Eugene Monroe Jags

I am like yes! Here we go Michael Oher at 11! Finally a high character LT with mental toughness! He’s ours!

At #11 the Buffalo Bills select Mich…..Aaron Maybin!

Ugh sock to the gut.

Oher slips to 23, and outplays the three tackles taken ahead of him last year.

For me this was ground hog day all over, especially with Bulaga falling to where else? #23 just like Michael Oher.

Now if Nix is right and Spiller really helps this team this year so be it. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for now and see how it plays out.

But if it turns out to be yet another consecutive year where we get beat around on the OL and Bulaga becomes the Michael Oher sequel, I’m a gonna be steamed.

But that 3rd best OT is flawed thinking, last year Knowshon Moreno was the best RB available, but the 4th taken OT was much more valuable to his team RIGHT AWAY.

Also think about this said on value, Nix said we got every player at a higher value then where they were graded by the Bills FO EXCEPT Spiller, They reached a little for Spiller, their fast as a waterbug scatback, that shows me they wanted that water bug scatback more than a bulldozer OT.

Did they make the right choice?

Time will tell.

But the neglect at OT just might come back to bite them in the britches, just like it did the inner circle and Jauron last year.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Apr 29, 2010 8:56 PM EDT reply actions

Bills shoulda traded down...

Yep Spiller is great and all but if you all wanted a NT there were a few later on in round 1, or at least DE/DT or pass rushing OLBs out there. Actually, I think Troup will work out. IMHO it was the middle picks in round 1 I don’t like, esp. Pierre-Paul, that CB the Texans took (when they coulda had Kyle Wilson!), both of Denver’s picks, the Jags pick, and a couple of others were not as good as Hughes, Odrick, Wilson, McCourty, Bryant, and maybe a couple of others. Same thing last year…the Saints got the “best” CB in the draft last year, but which rookie CB taken later in round 1 not only got to start but made the All Rookie team (along with your Jarius Byrd, a real steal)? Vontae Davis! (who, of course, ran that INT back for a TD in week four for my Phins).

I’ll say this for a Fins fan: I’d really really like it if your Bills became more competitive this year and made the AFC East THE top division in the league! And if you beat the Pats, too! In fact I’d like nothing better than if the Dolphins and Bills were the top two teams in the East. Screw the Jets, I’m tired of hearing about how “great” they are, and screw BB, who really hasn’t drafted that well for the Pats since the middle of the decade!

by snorky on Apr 30, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Bulaga

was not on par with any of those three LTs you mentioned. I do understand what you are saying, if all 3 three tackles are better than the RB you go with the third Tackle (BPA). But you said it yourself, Gailey wanted a a star athlete more, a “water bug” back, so Spiller was rated probably much higher than Bulaga. like i said i am only giving an opinion on what i believe Nix did and why. i don’t think it’s bad logic though.

in the end i dont care who we pick as long as we win and get a Super Bowl. Whatever philosophy works, if i could sell my soul for this team i would.

by pastj12345 on Apr 29, 2010 10:28 PM EDT reply actions

Gailey wanted a a star athlete more, a "water bug" back, so Spiller was rated probably much higher than Bulaga. like i said i am only giving an opinion on what i believe Nix did and why. i don’t think it’s bad logic though

I’m not trying to razz you or anything, I am just pointing out the reason I called it bad logic on this one, is I think it has nothing to do with Bulaga being 3rd best rated OT, actually on many draft boards he was 2nd rated OT, personally, I think if Okung was available along with Spiller at #9, the card for Spiller would still have gone up just as quickly as it did.