An Argument for Trading Marshawn Lynch
by kaisertown on Jun 3, 2010 8:30 AM EDT
in Buffalo Bills Opinion
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PrintI've got to get a few things off my chest before I get into more detailed arguments of why I think the Buffalo Bills should have traded Marshawn Lynch, and why I think they'll move him next off-season.
Fred Jackson is not 30. People need to stop calling him a 30-year-old running back. A handful of months ago, Fred Jackson was 28. He'll still be 30 when Lynch's contract expires. Jackson is one year older than backs that nobody would consider old, like Ronnie Brown and Michael Turner. Two of the top ten runners last season were practically in their mid-30s (Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones). Jackson is 29, will be 29 for the entire 2010 season, and is really unlikely to hit the 30-year-old wall that speed backs or players who have spent their whole career as the feature back tend to hit.
I don't hate Marshawn Lynch. The thought process behind this article is, I hope, entirely rational. There's no vendetta here. There's no emotion in this conclusion. That Lynch has been arrested twice or that I believe he doesn't really get it off the field are small pieces of why I think he's got more value as a couple of mid-to-late-round picks then he does as a Bill. Please don't respond to this post by asking me why I don't like Marshawn Lynch, because I don't really care whether he's a saint or a moron off the field one tenth as much as I care about what he does on the field.
I don't want to cut Lynch. My goal here isn't to convince people that the Bills are better off without Lynch. I simply think that the smart play at this point is to take some picks, if you can get them, and not only continue to build for the future, but build with players who want to be in Buffalo and are definitely here long term.
The first thing I'll attempt to establish is that Jackson is the better running back. I've been shocked to see how many people think that Lynch is the best traditional running back on the roster. People who think Lynch is better suited to handle a traditional feature back role might be surprised to see that the numbers don't back that belief up.
First and ten. Marshawn has 353 career carries that have come in the standard first down and long scenario. He's averaged 4.26 yards per carry in that situation. Jackson has 218 carries on first and long and has averaged 4.56 yards per carry. That's a fairly substantial difference, considering how big the sample size is and that first and ten should be a starting back's bread and butter.
Wearing defenses down. Another false belief is that Marshawn can wear a defense down and is better suited to handle a large workload than Jackson is. In the first five carries that Lynch receives in a game, he's averaged 4.5 yards per carry, while Jackson has only picked up 4.15 yards per carry. That's with almost 200 carries for each player being recorded, so it's a large sample. In carries 6-10, Lynch's average drops way down to 3.49 yards per carry, and that's over 177 career carries. Jackson's numbers trend upwards, as he averages 4.62 yards per carry in that area.
This is where Jackson's sample starts to shrink, as he's picked up 4.56 yards per carry on 66 carries that register as carries 11-15 through a game, and he's averaged an impressive 5.69 yards on carries over 15 in a game, although he's only had 52 career carries in that circumstance. Lynch's numbers continue to be all over the place, as his average bounces back up to a total of 4.06 yards per carry on 140 career carries on 11-5, but drops back down under 4 yards per carry on every carry past 15 in a game. Lynch has averaged 3.93 yards per carry over 136 carries when he's already had 15 carries in a game.
Is there any chance that Lynch's tackle-breaking style wears him down more than it wears down the defense, and that Jackson's slippery, hit-avoiding style keeps him fresh throughout the game? Jackson is more effective on first down and more effective as the game goes on than Lynch is. He's the player more suited for a traditional 15-carry-per-game role, while Lynch is apparently at his best with a lighter workload. If anybody is curious, here's the breakdown in table form, and I've also included second downs to highlight that Jackson is better in the bulk of the starting running back's roles. Let's also consider that Jackson had most of his carries in a tougher situation than Lynch had most of his. In Marshawn's supposedly good season, he had semi-decent QB play and an OL that returned its starters, stayed pretty healthy, and was a better group than what Jackson ran behind last season.
| Down | Dist. | Jackson | Lynch |
| 1 | Long | 4.56 | 4.26 |
| 2 | >3 | 4.82 | 4.31 |
| 2 | 3-7 | 5.02 | 3.89 |
| 2 | Long | 4.58 | 4.76 |
| Carry | Jackson | Lynch | |
| 1-5 | 4.15 | 4.5 | |
| 6-10 | 4.62 | 3.49 | |
| 11-15 | 4.56 | 4.06 | |
| 16+ | 5.79 | 3.93 |
Another argument against Jackson is that he's not a big play guy. That's completely true, with Jackson only gaining 20+ yards 11 times in 425 career carries. Problem is, Lynch is even worse. Marshawn has got 13 carries of 20 plus yards, and he's got 650 carries. If anything, those numbers point out that the Bills need to use Spiller. I don't understand why some people around here have resigned Spiller to a bit role of 100 carries per season or less. The Bills need to use Spiller as a running back, and every time he touches the ball can't be on a gimmicky situation or as a returner or slot WR. That leaves me wondering how people think the Bills can actually use both Jackson and Lynch in prominent roles. To me, it seems impossible. When has a team ever successfully utilized three backs in significant roles on a game-to-game basis? New Orleans didn't do it last season, as Reggie Bush averaged fewer than three carries per game when both Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas were healthy. Any argument along the lines of "the Bills will find a way to use them all" or "they can play the hot hand" is a cop-out. How long in each game will it be before Buffalo knows who has the hot hand? If they give each back five carries, then it's already the third quarter before they know who is running well. And I've already pointed out that Lynch has gotten worse over the course of games, while Jackson has gotten better. The Bills will get about 25 carries per game, and that isn't enough for three players to share without carving out specific roles.
Everything other than Lynch's draft status points to Marshawn being this team's short yardage back next season. Depending on what we consider to be short yardage, that ends up being about 10-20% of the rushing attempts. Over the last few years, Jackson and Lynch have been inside the 10-yard line or in short yardage situation for about 10% of their carries. If we were to expand Lynch's role to everything inside the red zone, then it's in the 17-20% range (and those could be optimistic numbers). In my opinion, that right there is what Lynch will realistically offer this team, and why it's too late to move him now. That's a role that somebody has to play, and it's not a role that anybody on the roster other than Lynch is likely to excel at. Unless people want to see Joique Bell on third and one or Spiller near the goal line, let's not overreact to any potential Lynch shenanigans and start screaming for the Bills to cut him.
I would have traded Lynch because I think that short yardage role would have been a very easy one to fill. Just glancing around the situational stats from bigger runners who are used in that role and also play FB or back up a starter, a lot of players can do what I believe Lynch will be asked to do, and many of them can do it better than Lynch. I think a trio of Jackson, Spiller and a late round rookie like Anthony Dixon or Jonathon Dwyer, or a free agent like Mike Bell, would be every bit as productive as the Bills' current backfield. So, why not get a third-rounder or a four and a five for Lynch if, statistically, Buffalo's running game could have been the same without him?
Everybody who doesn't want to trade Lynch will respond to that argument by claiming that he's better than a third-round pick, but that's not how value works. If the Bills had a young Peyton Manning, he'd be invaluable, right? A team wouldn't have enough players and draft picks to pry him off your roster. But what if you had two young Peyton Mannings? Wouldn't what you would be willing to accept be significantly less? Lynch's value is comprised of 50% what he could offer to a team looking to acquire him and 50% what his role would be here in Buffalo.
Brian may be unwilling to predict the likelihood of Lynch re-signing in Buffalo, but I'm not. I think it's highly unlikely that the currently disgruntled RB who, at best, will have a tough time reaching the performance incentives in his contract, has already requested a trade, and would be re-signing to still share a backfield with Jackson and Spiller, will want to return to Buffalo. In my opinion, Marshawn already feels slighted by Buffalo. I think he feels like he was very underpaid and under-utilized last season and that feeling could grow until it morphs into something that is literally unhealthy. Lynch has made statements about how he feels the police treat him differently here and how they, along with his neighbors, don't understand him. For me, his age becomes irrelevant, because I think he's a goner after this contract is up. Buffalo can hold on to Lynch and hope for the best, but I thought it was time to trade a short yardage back who will only be here for a couple (losing) seasons for something that could actually be of value down the road. Even if something like a fourth-round pick only has a 10-15% chance of being a great player, I'll roll the dice with that and another pick to replace Lynch's role.
I'll end with a question as to why Lynch is different. Jason Peters wanted out of Buffalo and that was met with venom and hatred. People were furious that Peters would dare hold out. I wasn't emotional with the Peters situation, but I'm still confused as to where that emotion is with Lynch? We've got a running back who has been arrested twice. Lynch seems to have this superstar ego where he doesn't understand that he has to play by the same rules as everybody else. He didn't understand why the cops would give him a hard time for bringing his own alcohol into a bar. He doesn't understand why he would get pulled over for pumping up his stereo to levels that 99% of the community would find annoying to the point of being rude. He doesn't understand why other people in his condo can own a dog, but he's not allowed to own a pit bull. Why are people so defensive over a four-yard-per-carry running back who doesn't seem to get it off the field, and doesn't want to be in Buffalo or play for the Bills? If Lynch was some third-round pick who played linebacker, wouldn't people despise him? But since he plays a high-profile position and looks great doing it (even if it's only because his tackle breaking is more noticeable than Jackson's balance, instincts and vision), people defend him. He doesn't want to be a Bill. Why do people want him to be one? I guess I just don't get it.
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I agree the Bills dropped the ball not moving Lynch
before the draft. His trade value went way down after they drafted Spiller. And its not like Spiller would not have been there when they picked. With Lynch’s likely limited role next season, he will not even command a bag of footballs.
2 reasons why we SHOULD NOT trade beast mode
1 if the injury bug strikes again and we lose jackson or spiller then were left with only one back and a practice squad back
2 the value is not there if all were going to get is a 3rd for him it’s not good when was the last time buffalo hit on a 3rd round player in the draft ???
trent edwards is still up in the air crowell was a one and done for buffalo do i need to go back to 1989 with the don bebe selection
i would not trade him because we can not get our drafting right so why waste a player for a pick in a round were we cant even get it right
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Numbers Don't Lie
Fred is the better back and he is an outstanding teammate and role model. I’m not sure why Marshawn is still in a Bills uniform — he is already a distraction to the team. Chan seems like he is sick of answering questions about Marshawn’s absence/role/trade possibilities.
Let me personally guarantee to you that Lynch’s absence has in no way been a distraction to the team. Like, 0% distraction level. It would be a distraction if it were July and the workouts were mandatory; this is a massively different situation.
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2010 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I must respectfully disagree. IMO anytime there are questions about a player’s presence it is a distraction on some level — maybe not a significant distraction that keeps them from making progress, but still a distraction. While it is a different situation, I also believe that Shobel’s uncertain status is a distraction to the team.
by IthacaBillsFan on Jun 3, 2010 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s only a distraction when they step up to the podium and talk to the media. I guarantee you that the coaches and players aren’t fussed about either Lynch or Schobel not being there behind closed doors. I don’t view media relations as a big part of their jobs, either, which is why I don’t think this is anywhere near a big deal.
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2010 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I hope you’re right. Either way it is disappointing to be so close to 100% participation and have just a couple guys that might play important roles missing.
by IthacaBillsFan on Jun 3, 2010 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Voluntary. I have no idea what field you work in but as a teacher, there are a bunch of guys I work with that hardly do the mandatory.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll add to that......
how many people here would show up to their jobs extra days while not getting paid?
I would venture to say less than 1% of us.
However if I felt like I could possibly earn more money by putting in the extra time…….then I would have to consider it.
Chan Gailey's #1 Fan!
by norcaliangelsfan on Jun 3, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree, but not a far analogy, considering ...
These guys get paid millions to do their job. They should be eating, sleeping, breathing football as much as possible, considering the “investment” the front office makes in them.
Sure, if you make 30k a year, then why show up to a voluntary session, right? But if you make 3 million a year, and have dozens of younger, faster, better and possibly cheaper guys chomping at the bit for a shot waiting right behind you, then perhaps it’s worth your while to show up, unless you know you have your “spot” locked up (via contract or otherwise) or feel you can go somewhere else to get paid the kind of bucks you deserve.
All in all, it doesn’t hurt to go to the voluntary sessions and in the end, if you’re a player and can benefit from the extra time, why not? Marshawn’s competition is benefiting from it.
Marshawn doesnt come close to making 3 million a year......
infact he makes peanuts when it comes to NFL player salaries. Last year he was the 35th highest paid player on the team based on his yearly salary (bonus money not included)
Chan Gailey's #1 Fan!
by norcaliangelsfan on Jun 3, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I work at a university and at least in the division where I work there is a culture where you are a team and don’t want to let your colleagues or your boss down. If everyone else is putting in a bunch of extra days to help us accomplish our mission, I don’t want to be the one guy who stays home — that will hurt my relationship with my colleagues and my chances of promotion.
It’s not like Marshawn is missing a day here or there — he has yet to show up for anything in the offseason and he is one of only two guys out of what, like 80 in that position?
by IthacaBillsFan on Jun 3, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t want to be that guy either. With that being said I wouldn’t trash my colleagues for me doing the right thing by my team.
With that being said the NFL is a business. The owners treat it that way as the players should. The hundred bucks a day for offseason workouts isn’t enough for Lynch and that’s fine with me.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
good write up and statistical analysis Kai
I haven’t commented in awhile because there really hasn’t been much to comment about but I felt compelled to do so with your post.
I don’t think Lynch has built up enough vitriol from the masses because he hasn’t held out from any activities that are mandatory. If he doesn’t show up for mandatory mini’s and training camp then I feel like feelings will change.
One area that I think Lynch is better than Jackson is getting into the endzone. I ddn’t do any research to back it up but I do recall Lynch being able to do and Jackson not as much.
I agree with you regarding playing 2 or 3 of the running backs. while it’s a necessity these days to have 2 good running backs you need to have a clear depth chart and your #1 needs to get a bulk of the carries to get into that groove that is spoken of. I frankly don’t care who starts as long as they get the job done.
I don’t know that OBD felt like they were in a strong bargaining position during the time rumors of trading Lynch surfaced. everyone knew Jackson had suplanted Lynch and then they had Spiller so teams weren’t going to meet the asking price. now if a RB goes down in a mini, OTA or training camp that could change in the Bills favor. Time will tell.
This.
I don’t think Lynch has built up enough vitriol from the masses because he hasn’t held out from any activities that are mandatory. If he doesn’t show up for mandatory mini’s and training camp then I feel like feelings will change.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Why does that have to be the only reason though?
Lynch’s shenanigans off the field should have been enough to cause similar vitriol, but seemingly haven’t. That’s what kaiser’s point was. I think.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Ahhhhh. OK. Ben Roethlisberger didn’t hold out and was great on the field but is getting it from fans. I see it now.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
K, probably because it’s been over 1 yr since Lynch has been in any type of trouble. people are willing to give others 2nd chances when they are seemingly able to avoid these issues for some time. nobody knows whether he’ll screw up again but in the recent past he has not.
like I said above though, if he doesn’t show up for mandatory “stuff” then the feelings will change quickly.
I DONT CARE WHEN HIS LAST TROUBLE WAS. YOU HAVE A NEW REGIME IN TOWN. EVERYONE IS SHOWING UP TO LEARN THE NEW PLAY BOOK. BUT LYNCHS LONE ABSENCE SPEAKS VOLUMES ABOUT WHAT HE CARES ABOUT. CERTAINLY NOT THE TEAM. HE MUST HAVE SOMETHING WAY MORE IMPORTANT TO DO THAN HELP THE TEAM AND BE ALL HE CAN BE WITH US. HE MUST BE THE ONLY BILL THAT IS READY FOR THE SEASON AND KNOWS ALL THE SHIFTS AND PLAYS ALREADY. PRO BOWL READY RIGHT NOW. SORRY BUT NOT HAPPY WITH HIS DESIRE. THIS TEAM NEEDS DESIRE
LOUD NOISES.
EVERYONE IS SHOWING UP TO LEARN THE NEW PLAY BOOK. BUT LYNCHS LONE ABSENCE SPEAKS VOLUMES ABOUT WHAT HE CARES ABOUT.
Shawn Nelson hasn’t been there all week. KICK HIS BUTT!
Aaron Schobel hasn’t told the Bills if he will be playing this season. OFF WITH HIS HEAD!
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s the combination of the off field stuff and requesting a trade. I feel like that Yahoo Sports article came out and said that Lynch had requested a trade and not a single Lynch supporter changed their stance. When was the last time that a big percentage of Bills fans supported a guy who doesn’t want to be here? And then add in that he’s been a mess off the field and it doesn’t make sense to me.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
When was the last time that a big percentage of Bills fans supported a guy who doesn’t want to be here?
Peters
We got the tools, We got the talent
by J2 on Jun 3, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Really, I felt like people turned on him way more than they have with Lynch. Maybe I was just in the middle of that one as opposed to being on one side this time.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
I think you’re right but I think it has more to do with Peters holding out affected the team. He wasn’t at camp, missed preseason, and then reported the night before opening weekend. That’s what ticked me off. Lynch isn’t anywhere close to that yet.
Use McGahee for this argument and it makes more sense. He bad mouthed Buffalo and it was like a bomb going off. He never held out or anything like that.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I can only speak on my behalf, but I’m with you on a lot of this. I, too, don’t hate Lynch. I’ve felt since late in the 2008 season that Jackson was the more efficient back, which aside from pure scoring I think you’ve proven here. I also think that you’ve got the roles down pat, particularly with Spiller.
But insofar as those roles go, that’s assuming good health. Jackson has gotten nicked from time to time over the last three years, even in a part-time role – he’s played through it, but injuries happen. Durability was a problem for Spiller throughout his entire senior season, and obviously given his frame it will be a concern until he’s spent enough healthy time in the league to quell those doubts. Initially, your roles are probably accurate, but as the Bills have proven at almost every position for the past three years, you’ve got to have good depth across the entire roster.
That’s largely why I wouldn’t trade Lynch, at least not for the type of compensation you suggest. I made it sound a little like I wouldn’t trade Lynch no matter what, but that’s not true – I think Nix is playing this correctly in holding out for a second-round pick. (I might take a third, but Nix probably won’t.) If a back goes down elsewhere in the league in the pre-season, we might actually get fairer compensation for Marshawn. You’re right in that the Bills missed a window of opportunity to move him, but I think the team can still stay patient on this one.
Keep in mind, also, that Lynch will still be under contract next off-season, can request another trade, and will still only be 25 next April. His trade value is low right now, but even if he’s stuck in his limited role all season, if he keeps his head down and stays clean, and is even semi-productive, his trade value will rise, if only a little, next off-season.
In short, I agree with you right up to the point where trade compensation is discussed. I also don’t think the Bills “missed the boat” on trading Lynch. There’s still a long time before there’s any urgency surrounding Lynch, so I’m OK with what’s transpired.
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Very good response
There are two reasons why trading Lynch before the draft would have been the better, even if it meant taking the Hawks 3rd round offer. 1. Another arrest and Lynch’s value goes down further. 2. Injury.
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
I hadn’t heard that Seattle offered a third; I did hear that they offered two fourth-rounders.
How likely is Lynch to get hurt if he’s playing the limited role kaisertown suggests (and I agree) he’ll be playing?
Also, Lynch has now gone more than a full year without a lick of serious legal trouble. I suspect that will draw a lot of sarcastic replies, but he’s kept his nose clean since he said he’d keep his nose clean. Ask Corey McIntyre – anybody can get arrested for any reason. I don’t see that as a particularly valid excuse to trade a player for what you might consider unfair compensation, just to get rid of him.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2010 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions
not only that
but trading him before the draft and therefore before Spiller leaves the team thin at RB. Given Gailey’s penchant for running the ball it wouldn’t make much sense.
Right?
Say Spiller goes to Oakland at 8… well now we only have Jackson. Its easier to look back now and say pre-draft would have been smarter… thats because we drafted Spiller. If he went early and then left us with Jackson only people would be ready to rip OBD’s head off.
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
Yeah, Spiller was the only RB in the whole draft
Best or Gerhart…..granted not at #9, but that might have been a good thing
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
Well Best wouldnt have been there with our 2nd round pick… All Im saying its a lot easier to now say “He should have been traded pre-draft” because we have Jackson and Spiller.
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
If Spiller might not have been there for the Bills, then Best might have been.
Changing one player at the top of the draft could change the whole draft.
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
If we took Best at 9 these boards would have blown up. I know that one pick can change the whole draft. And I highly doubt Gerhart fits the “water bug” type of RB Chix wanted.
All Im saying is that its easier to say when we should or shouldnt have traded him with those two backs on our roster right now.
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
I still think Best has a shot to be the better RB....
than Spiller.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
On that fast track in Detroit he has a chance to be. They will have an explosive offense here in the next year or two. But Best #9 overall to Buffalo, I would not have liked that.
I think Spiller is going to the the better player at the end of their careers. Better be anyways! lol
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
He’s going to get more carries than Spiller this year too. I’d bet on Best getting over 200 if he stays healthy. Let’s hope Bills fans don’t overreact to Best putting up better counting stats, especially if Spiller has a good year.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
Ill kill someone if Spiller/Best turns into Maybin/Orakpo hahaha.
But Best and the Lions will be a fun team to watch this year. Stafford, Best, Johnson, that TE that names escapes me.
Oh and Ko Simpson…
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
look up
Best or Gerhart…..granted not at #9,
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
Then that would mean no Troupe in the 2nd. Theres 100 ways to go round and round with this lol. We just view it different thats all, no problem with that.
End of the day we’re both wanting the same answer: Win. Just looking to get there in a different light. Heck, OBD has been 0-10 with their ideas for the past decade… haha.
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
I agree...maybe we take a DT or LT at #9?
The point is that the Bills could have traded Lynch before the draft and still been OK at RB.
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
I read it somewhere they offered a 3rd, if I find it I will post the link....doesn't matter though...it is all speculation at this point
How likely is Lynch to get hurt
Not as likely, but Wood’s injury proved it only takes one play. The question is….Is it worth it for the Bills to expose him to injury vs the potential increase in trade value that should happen by playing him? I am not sure that being the Bills 3rd RB this season increases is value beyond the 2nd I think we could already get for him at training camp.
Lynch has now gone more than a full year without a lick of serious legal trouble.
Why, because he wasn’t dragged into court? The $20 thing is concerning and the summer is still young. And you have to be freaking kidding with the Corey McIntyre thing. That was a freak thing. Most people, even Pro Athletes don’t just get arrested without good reason.
I never said we should get rid of him for unfair compensation. But just like stocks, fair is what the market says he is worth….sorry but that is the truth Bills fans don’t like to hear.
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
….Is it worth it for the Bills to expose him to injury vs the potential increase in trade value that should happen by playing him?
seriously Joe? his contract is going to be up – if he starts the season on our team the chances of us trading him are small anyways
We got the tools, We got the talent
by J2 on Jun 3, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
His contract expires after the 2011 season, J2.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Why?
if he starts the season on our team the chances of us trading him are small anyways
say the Vikes lose Peterson in game one for the season. Are they really going to want to trust the job to a rookie?
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
no – i was thinking that Nix would stick to his guns and do what he said which was not trade Lynch. If he was on the team come starting day then I doubt we trade him unless the compensation was a 2nd and i’m not sure anyones going to offer that
We got the tools, We got the talent
by J2 on Jun 3, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
And you have to be freaking kidding with the Corey McIntyre thing. That was a freak thing.
I realize that. However, you applied the same logic to Eric Wood’s injury. And Jackson and Spiller are one play away from getting as hurt as Lynch. See? This argument has devolved into ridiculous what-if scenarios.
The legal issues are the ONLY good reasons to explore a trade, if you ask me – and he hasn’t had a really legitimate concern there for a while. That’s why I’m preaching patience.
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
It is all about the risk vs the reward
Are you really saying that players getting arrest like C. M. did happen as often as season ending injuries? Wood’s was a freak injury, but there are plenty of other ways to get an injury.
And I agree with you….at this point, I say patience…..R2 will be along…….:-)
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
Haha!
Yeah, definitely not saying that the McIntyre-type arrest happens as frequently as a season-ending injury, but in the grand scheme of things, the latter is pretty rare, particularly in August and September. Outside of Buffalo, anyway.
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2010 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Didn't you say you'd give Lynch the majority of the carries?
Pretty simple: give him the football. Give it to him early, and give it to him often. Marshawn Lynch is still the closest thing to an every-down back on this roster.
I have no problem with the idea of Lynch being the “main” running back – that is, the running back that is most frequently used in a traditional running back role – with Jackson and Spiller getting touches in more creative, complementary ways.
These comments seem to hint at something different than what you’ve said here. Maybe I’m misreading it, but you are agreeing with kaiser that Jackson is the more efficient back, yet before you felt Lynch should be the “main running back”???
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
I don’t see the word “majority” in either of those two blue boxes. I also clearly didn’t explain what I meant by “main” running back well enough; I just meant that I have no problem with the team using him in a traditional RB role, while getting more creative with the other two guys.
I think Jackson is more effective, and I think Spiller will be more effective than both in time. But yes, I’d still give Marshawn touches.
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2010 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Sure seems implied in those words to me!
“Give it to him early, and give it to him often.”
“closest thing to an every-down back”
“main running back”
“most frequently used in a traditional running back role”
That all added up to me believing you thought Lynch should get the most carries. Maybe I shouldn’t have said majority there, instead using “more”.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Would it suffice to say that I think Lynch’s workload should be “significant?” I’d give it to him a lot more than kaisertown suggests, for instance.
kaiser outlines a 25-carry thesis, but I prefer to talk in terms of touches, and I think these three backs should get at least 40 touches per game, whether rushing, receiving or returning. They’re too good to not get touches. I expect at least one or two to be near the team lead in receptions.
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Touches is fine
But outside of carries, you can’t rely on them week-to-week.
Returns aren’t necessarily something to count on. What if we put Spiller back there and the punter/kicker constantly kicks away from him? How is that really utilizing him to his fullest capabilities? Some weeks, he might get 5 returns, some none. I’d prefer making sure Spiller gets the ball every week.
For receptions, we have to hope Edwards (or whatever QB starts) can consistently get Jackson/Spiller the ball in that area. It’s easier than in the return game, but again there’s no guarantees that those two will get the ball enough. Last year, Jackson was our best receiving back, yet went three straight games without a catch mid-season. That shouldn’t have happened. It’s part of the reason I’d rather take away Lynch carries to ensure both Spiller and Jackson get their guaranteed touches….
Handing it off is the best guarantee for Jackson/Spiller to get touches. I think both can do a lot more with their carries than Lynch can, so that’s another reason I think they should be getting more “traditional” touches.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Well, sure, combined, Jackson and Spiller will get more carries than Lynch, but that’s not really fair, is it?
I HATE talking about carry breakdowns, because they’re meaningless. I think Lynch should get touches between the 20s. I think he’s more than a short-yardage back. That can be accomplished, even if only minimally, without sacrificing touches for Jackson and Spiller.
Who the hell else is the ball gonna go to?!
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2010 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
You give the ball to your best players!
I, too, agree Lynch is far more than a short yardage back, and is more than good enough to get carries between the 20’s. However, I think Jackson is a better player, and Lynch doesn’t deserve anything. If he earns carries, great. Right now, I think he is behind Jackson, and rightfully so….at least for the time being.
Carry breakdowns are probably silly at this point, but not meaningless for discussion. I’d prefer the coaches give Jackson at least 12-15 carries, and not just touches. I don’t see how they can or should give Spiller fewer than 8-10 carries a game. I think those 20-25 carries will be more productive than anything Lynch could do to enhance them. I want the ball in the hands of our best runners, and Jackson, and hopefully Spiller are that. If we’re debating who should get the ball in Lynch vs Parrish vs Hardy vs any other WR besides Evans, then its Lynch hands down. But to me, he’s third in the RB touches playlist.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jun 3, 2010 12:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It is kinda silly.
A game plan is created, and plays are called, according to more important things than a planned number of touches per RB.
I drive a 2010 WhAGON BLASTER w/"Baby on Board!" Bumper Sticker
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Add in the fact that game plans, and therefore emphasis on certain players, change on a weekly basis, and per-game carry breakdowns become even more ridiculous.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s not really about the specific carry breakdowns. We use those as an example of how giving a couple carries to one players is taking them away from another. I completely agree with you that Lynch is more than a short yardage back, but any carry that you give him on first and 10 or on 2nd and 6 is a carry that you’re not giving to a back who is likely to be more productive than Lynch is.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
nice sig.
but any carry that you give him on first and 10 or on 2nd and 6 is a carry that you’re not giving to a back who is likely to be more productive than Lynch is.
It’s not so black and white. If Lynch takes some of the 1st and 10 carries, another RB is resting. Not every 1st and 10 requires the same strategy. How many carries each gets is dictated by game situation, and worrying about how many touches each averages over the season is kinda silly.
a.k.a the Uncommon Denominator
Same with Carries
But outside of carries, you can’t rely on them week-to-week.
What if we fall behind by 21 early (like that’s not ever going to happen) Then carries drop right off and receiving touches will more likely pile up. There will be plenty of weeks where we run less than 20 times due to the scoreboard. So don’t discount those return and receiving touches so lightly K – they will add up to a fairly high percentage !
3 AM Monday morning games all 2010 - that's just freakin dandy !
I'm talking in normal situations
As bad as this team will be, how often will they quickly fall down by 21?
Sure, there will be games where receiving and return opportunities will be greater, but again, those still carry no guarantees. We can throw the ball 50 times a game, but the QB still has to get the ball to Spiller or Jackson on the swing passes or screens or whatever. We can allow 50 points, but the opposition has to make their kickoffs returnable for Spiller to reap any benefit. With carries, the total number may change week-to-week, but calling a running player for Spiller or Jackson is a 100% guarantee to put the ball in their hands, barring a fumbled snap. In an average game, the Bills can guarantee they get the ball in those guys’ hands by handing it off to them….
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Oh Obviously
Caries are more reliable as far as getting the RBs touches, but you seemed to be almost dismissing the other touches as random. I think it’s safe to assume “other touches” will account for close to 25 % of total RB touches though. Say 300 carries, 70 catches, and well there will be well over 30 viable kickoff and punt returns – so perhaps it’s closer to 30 % overall.
Just saying – don’t discount those “other touches” they will add up !
Ahh here’s hoping Spiller becomes CJ2K and we dont need to worry re Fred or Marshawn :) (Man can dream can’t he ??)
3 AM Monday morning games all 2010 - that's just freakin dandy !
Right
I’m not discounting them at all. I’m just not counting on them consistently.
Those other touches will be there by the end of the season, in total, but they are definitely dependent on factors outside of the play call. I’m just saying the best way to guarantee we get Spiller and Jackson the ball is by handing it off to them. Beyond that, the reception and return touches will fluctuate from week to week.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Is there any argument
That this guy runs harder then any other Bills running back. In 2008 there was no question, but last year he was missing something, he wasnt himself, i dont know if it was the suspension, the fact he lost his starting job, the fact he knew his coaching staff was crap, I dunno but if we get the 2007, 2008 Marshawn I will take him over Freddy any day.
by PaullyPforPrez on Jun 3, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Lynch’s numbers in 2007 and 2008, in a better circumstance, were worse than Jackson’s numbers last year. You can talk about how hard Lynch runs all you want, but how is running hard better than Jackson running smooth or Spiller running fast? Jackson has proven to be the better runner in most of the starting running back’s roles and the numbers prove that.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
Different lines
Kaiser – there are multiple arguments on this of course.
You point out earlier re the different O Lines we had – and your assumption is automatically that the 2009 line was worse then the 2007 and 2008 lines ! From a running standpoint I’m not sure I agree. We were clearly better at the tackle position in 2007 and 2008. However We were clearly better at Centre and both guard slots last year ! Considering that a fairly large chunk of run plays are behind / through one of those 3 interior linemen one could argue that Jacksons full season was behind a better run blocking line.
I doubt anyone here thinks Wood and Hang are not more physical (and better) run blockers than Fowler, Dockery were.
That said – very nice post overall – I agree with a lot of it – I’d be heavily tempted to move Lynch if you got 2 × 4ths or better. However I wont be too upset if he stays around either – we certainly need him in those goal line situations because historical stats show that Fred is 1/2 as likely to score on a red zone carry as Lynch (Fred is 1 TD per 14 Red Zone carries vs Lynch who is 1 in 7)
3 AM Monday morning games all 2010 - that's just freakin dandy !
OL
You point out earlier re the different O Lines we had – and your assumption is automatically that the 2009 line was worse then the 2007 and 2008 lines ! From a running standpoint I’m not sure I agree. We were clearly better at the tackle position in 2007 and 2008. However We were clearly better at Centre and both guard slots last year ! Considering that a fairly large chunk of run plays are behind / through one of those 3 interior linemen one could argue that Jacksons full season was behind a better run blocking line.
That’s a fair point, but wouldn’t Lynch’s numbers have improved if the run blocking was better last year too?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Also, Jackson’s numbers stayed very consistent to what he did behind the 07/08 line. And I don’t think we can use Jackson’s small workload as a reason for high numbers considering that he got stronger over the course of games last season.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
Perhaps if he had a settled season
No-one will dispute that Lynch had a down year K. Safe to say the added weight he had screwed him over – certainly not the first RB to unsucessfully toy with adding more weight !
3 AM Monday morning games all 2010 - that's just freakin dandy !
How could the trade Lynch before the draft?
If I remember correctly the Bills took the BPA and not knowing who that would be they would have had no way to know they would end up with 3 good backs? I might be off base here, but I can understand why they would have traded Lynch before the draft not knowing which way they were going. Maybe if they knew Spiller was their man it would be different, but I don’t know if we can keep questioning why he was not traded before the draft?
by Kelly to Reed Touchdown!! on Jun 3, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Well said
To date, though, Lynch’s only ‘statement’ as to whether or not he wants to be back in Buffalo has been his absence at voluntary OTAs. I don’t know that we can say that he wants out. I’m sure he wants to be paid (more than he’s worth) but I don’t know that he’d turn his nose up if Buffalo were to offer him a fat extension.
Also, like Parrish and Edwards, Lynch has a new lease on life. Gailey didn’t demote Lynch in 2009 just like Gailey wasn’t the one to bench Edwards or scratch a healthy Parrish. Assuming he stays, Lynch has the opportunity to reclaim his starting role. Of course, staying away from voluntary OTAs certainly isn’t helping his cause….
It can always get worse. Let me tell you how.
The Yahoo article, which I’m sure Lynch’s people read before it was published since it has an abundance of Lynch quotes in it, said that he had asked to be traded.
I don’t care who finished the season where on the depth chart. The numbers show Jackson to be a better back in almost every situation and as you likely agree, the past is the best way to predict the future. Jackson is likely to outperform Lynch in all those roles again, the samples are pretty big.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
Jay Riemersma is running for Congress and his people didn’t ask to see my little blog post before I ran it. Just FWIW.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Excellent piece....rec'd
I can’t wait to see how the Beast lovers counter…my guess is lots of emotion but “crickets” in the fact category. I still think it is very possible that Lynch gets moved sometime during training camp. If a team that feels it is a contender has a feature RB go down, suddenly Lynch is worth a 2nd rounder.
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
I can’t wait to see how the Beast lovers counter
LOL
Joe – you do realize that the only reason why I want him on our team and playing is because I think he makes our team better right?
Even if Brian Moorman (my favorite Bill) were to suck i’d want him off the team. It’s about winning and I feel that having Marshawn on our team makes us better…….
We got the tools, We got the talent
by J2 on Jun 3, 2010 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
How?
If Lynch is our 3rd down back, what is that worth vs what we could get for him?
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
If Lynch is our 3rd down back
to you Joe, not to anyone at OBD. They haven’t said anything like that. pure speculation
We got the tools, We got the talent
by J2 on Jun 3, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Hence the “if.” I don’t think anyone is coming at this from the angle that Lynch is 100% going to play the role kaisertown posits.
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"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes....we don't know 100%. But kaiser makes a pretty good argument why it is very likely
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
which is something I cannot get behind because the coaches make those decisions and how he performs in training camp and preseason could change all of that.
We got the tools, We got the talent
by J2 on Jun 3, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
yes it could, but that doesn't seem to stop people from saying Edwards will be the starting QB, Stroud will be the DE, etc
If we had to actually wait and see…..WTF would we talk about for the next 2 months :-)
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
Of course it could, but isn’t the best player likely to win the job and don’t the numbers all point to Jackson being the better player? The numbers I point out in the post all show that Jackson is better suited to handle the main role and they show it by a solid margain. He’s the better player.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
Got some stats for ya.
Dont think these were mentioned in the piece, so if they were I apoligize.
Touchdowns:
Lynch – 17 rushing TD’s, 1 receiving TD and 1 TD pass.
Jackson – 5 rushing TD’s, 2 receiving TD’s and 1 TD pass.
Those are a lot more important stats than yards per carry on carries 6-10 in a game…
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
Lynch scores on 2.5% of his touches. Jackson scores on 1.5% of his touches. That’s a far more accurate assessment of what you outlined above.
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2010 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
that is one stat in Lynch's favor. Have those numbers been trending upward or downward?
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
LYNCH
2007 – scored on 2.7% of touches
2008 – scored on 3.0% of touches
2009 – scored on 1.4% of touches
JACKSON
2007 – scored on 0.0% of touches
2008 – scored on 1.8% of touches
2009 – scored on 1.8% of touches
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2010 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions
question.....does redzone touches need to be taken into account?
Neither back is a home run threat. If Jackson was given the ball more between the 20s and Lynch inside the 20, then that is an “unfair” advantage for Lynch that would boost his TD numbers, right?
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
That hasn’t really happened, though. Lynch has gotten more red zone work because he’s gotten more work, period. The difference is not significant enough to matter.
Buffalo Rumblings. On Twitter.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. --Wayne Grezky" --Michael Scott
by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Plus we all know majority of our redzone scoring is off Lindells right foot. haha :-/
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
you have a point there :-(
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
Jacksons have platuead. 1 or 2 TD’s a year… Yaaaay?!
I dont remember Jackson running wild into the endzone when he had his chance to start last year.
Look I love Freddy and what he bring. But I also love how Lynch runs. As the same with Spiller. I just dont see the point in trading him just to trade him.
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
I dont remember Lynch running wild last year either
He had his chances as well.
1 TD in 7 rushes inside the 10
Jackson had 2 on 8 carries
I don’t get why the number of TD’s scored should hold any more significance than other stats or area of production. I don’t remember Steelers fans calling for Bettis to get more carries elsewhere because he was racking up TD’s inside the 5. TJ Duckett always seemed to score a lot of TD’s. Remember McGahee early last year? I doubt many would say he was the better RB because he was scoring the TD’s and Ray Rice wasn’t.
When you get significantly more rushes inside the 10, you’re going to score more TD’s…that doesn’t mean Lynch is a better RB than Jackson, nor does it imply Jackson would have the same success. Its just not something that should be used to determine who’s “better”….
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jun 3, 2010 12:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I understand TD’s arent the be-all / end-all with RB’s. But over their 3 year careers Lynch sniffs the endzone a lot more than Jackson. Again this isnt a knock at Jackson as much as it is showing that Lynch is valuable. And I think that was made evident by Brians TD’s per touch % comment.
Its not that Im saying Lynch better be our #1 and Jackson better be the #2 … hell they could both be #1, #2 or #3, 4, 5 etc… game plans will change week to week. Players will get more touches one week than others. Its not always going to be 50% – 30% – 20% or whatever. Im just saying all three backs should/would contribute to wins this season.
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
I don't know about the wins part
Those will be tough to come by!
As for the TD’s, it appears many people think Lynch is better simply because he’s scored more. He has proven to be good inside the 10. I don’t think that means Jackson couldn’t succeed if given the same number of opportunities Lynch has had, nor does that mean those TD’s should outweigh every other comparison.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jun 3, 2010 2:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Haha alright let me rephrase that… “Im just saying all three backs should/would contribute to hopeful wins this season.”
And I guess they cant outweigh all catagories… but TD’s should weight more than others. I guess I really dont see any of the backs on our team being a “starter” or “backup.” I see them all as someone, when called on, depending on the situation, will perform.
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
For me, the starter is the guy who gets the carries on first and 10 and on second and 6 and in situations like that, because those are, by a large margin, the biggest percentage of carries the Bills will have. Over 50% of Buffalo’s carries last season came on a first and 10.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
It's a style thing K
Fred is a patient runner – that works well between the 20’s but not vs goal line formations. Lynch is a more direct runner – not always as effective between the 20’s , but generally a lot more effective vs goal line D’s.
Not saying Fred doesn’t have the talent – in fact last weeks post I mentioned fred is our best runner between the 20’s. However near the Goal line over their careers Lynch has appeared more effective – and that is based off what I’ve seen in watching games – not just stats which you rightly point out can be manipulated to make anyones point.
Of course TD’s are not the be all and end all of measuring a RB, but last time I checked they were pretty darn important considering he who scores the most points wins.
3 AM Monday morning games all 2010 - that's just freakin dandy !
Those are a lot more important stats than yards per carry on carries 6-10 in a game
Lynch has three TDs outside the 20 yard line in his career. One was the frickin awesome run against the Bengals in 2007 and the other two were for less than 25 yards. Jackson has one TD run from outside the 20 and it was also barely longer than 20 yards.
Lynch doesn’t really score from outside the 20 which kind of makes his TD prowress irrelevant when discussing the numbers that I put up there. I (hopefully) said that Lynch should get all the short yardage work, including the red zone stuff. He’s got a knack of scoring from 5-15 yards out that not very many backs have. And that is why I wouldn’t trade Lynch at this point of the offseason. I think he’ll do very well in a 4-7 carry per game, short yardage and red zone roll for this team. But between the 20s, where starting RBs do the huge majority of their work, Jackson is clearly the superior back in almost every single statistical way.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
Beast Lover here...
Facts:
Injuries can, and will, happen in the NFL.
Marshawn is costing a third of what Jackson is right now.
Marshawn had 7TDs his rookie year, 9TDs the next, and while he only had 2 last season Fred Jackson has only 7 in his three year NFL career. Lynch has two 1000 yd seasons, Jackson has one. Trade arguments just seem short-sighted to me.
Lynch is more physical and more explosive. With elite YAC: http://profootballfocus.com/articles.php?tab=articles&arc=&id=162
Don’t get me wrong. I LOVE Fred Jackson and I was excited to see him get the ball a lot more last year. However, jettisoning a productive, explosive, hard-working back like Lynch after one off year should take a high round draft pick (or egregious personal act) and shouldn’t be done hastily. Look at the Giants offense a few years ago, when they ran Jacobs, Ward, and Bradshaw. You can’t have too many talented running backs in this league.
Kaiser’s perception of Lynch’s off-field attitude is ranting, inaccurate, and out of proportion. Of course the guy wants to be a starter… I know I personally give Lynch the benefit of the doubt with the arrests, they don’t seem malicious to me and merely a combination of foolishness and presenting himself as a high-profile target. But I think most of his teammates see him as someone who is there to work and not as an ego machine as K asserts.
Furthermore, even if you successfully argued that Jackson was the better player doesn’t fully support the notion of trading a third year RB with solid numbers. It seems we could really use both guys on a team that needs as many playmakers as it can get.
by dav630 on Jun 3, 2010 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
kaiser
not personal, i like your stuff and i really like that you posted this article. i wish espn would put up more stuff like this for discussion. i just like lynch as part of this team.
haha, it’s a blog dude, you’re good. And I hope I didn’t come off as some anti-Lynch, crazy fan who hates every player who doesn’t want to play in my beloved hometown of Buffalo.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
Marshawn had 7TDs his rookie year, 9TDs the next, and while he only had 2 last season Fred Jackson has only 7 in his three year NFL career. Lynch has two 1000 yd seasons, Jackson has one. Trade arguments just seem short-sighted to me.
This has alot to do with the team in front of him, Buffalo played a hell of alot better in 2008 then they did in 09. Jason peters was a pro bowl tackle that season. Also it speaks to the Bills confidence in Lynch in the Red Zone, Lynch is a better straight through the gap runner then Jackson, Stats are stats but when you watch the two back Lynch is a better head down through the gap runner then Jackson and I dont think many people will argue with me on that.
Fred Jackson is a solid running back, no doubt about it, two years he has gotten touches he has had great production, but dont forget Lynch went early 1st round for a reason, he had 2 1000 yard campaigns for a reason this kid is a good running back and when he is motivated and playing his best football I think he is the best RB on this team. That being said he is nowhere even close to the person off the field as Fred Jackson who is a Buffalo type running back, doesnt say much produces on game days does solid work in the community. When Marshawn was running for 1000 yard seasons Buffalo loved him when he gets a 4 game suspension and Freddy steps in and shows what he can do we jump on the bus for Freddy.
If Freddy goes down in week one or 2 and Marshawn comes in a puts up 150 100 130 we will all be back on the Marshwan train. We all know it !
by PaullyPforPrez on Jun 3, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
If Lynch is the better runner, then why does he gain fewer yards than Jackson? Lynch looks like the better runner because of his style. The breaking tackles running style is more impressive than Jackson’s running in the correct direction with vision and then using balance and body control to avoid defenders. I don’t disagree that Lynch is a good running back. But I believe the Bills should give the ball to the best runner in each specific situation and Jackson is the better runner in almost every situation.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
Well put:
Jackson’s running in the correct direction with vision and then using balance and body control to avoid defenders
Thats the perfect way to explain Jacksons running stylef. I kept wanting to use words like “slippery” or “shifty” but hes not those. He is exactly what you said. Its not flashy… hes a boring-to-watch RB, but in a good way… if that makes sense? Like the way Maddox pitched back in his prime in ATL. Always good, but never overpowered anyone. Just painted the corners, pitched smart and picked his spots. If that analogy helps at all explain that. haha.
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
Facts:
Marshawn Lynch is making 885k in 2010
Fred Jackson is making 1.445M in 2010
Lynch is making 61% of Jackson’s salary. Closer to two-thirds than one-third.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Those look like the 2009 numbers that include Jackson’s big signing bonus.
I used the 2010 numbers from Rotoworld:
Lynch
Jackson
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Facts:
In 2008 Bradshaw had 67 carries, or just over 4 a game. In our three-headed scenario here who is getting only four carries a game?
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions
same concept, different formula
don’t pretend that the only formula for success is the precise carry breakdown that the giants used. it depends on so many different game and player scenarioes. c’mon man.
OK. Show me an example of a three-headed running back group that all three guys got adequate touches. You said look what the Giants did so I did.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
i meant to look at the fact that they kept three backs with different running styles, kept them fresh and fed, rushed for over 2500 yds and won the superbowl…. im saying its worth it to hold on to lynch, that its worth it to have different types of RBs on the roster.
but if im going to play along, id say spiller gets used differently/less frequently just because of his skill set he would probably line up less at HB.
So you meant 2007. Brandon Jacobs had 202 carries in 11 games, Derrick Ward had 125 in 5, and Reuben Droughns had 85. Bradshaw only had 23 carries that year and if Jacobs had stayed healthy he would have had over 270 carries and it would have been a featured back system, not a three-headed monster.
Not to mention, when I think of the Super Bowl that year I think of the TD pass to Plaxico, the amazing catch by David Tyree, and the punishing pass rush not the RBs. The Giants only rushed the ball 26 times in that game – 14 by Jacobs and 9 by Bradshaw. Three headed running back rotations don’t exist unless one player gets hurt.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Rec’tangular post, dav630. Those YAC numbers are some fat ‘crickets.’ Maybe Joe P would like some mustard to go with that crow?
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Check out those numbers again. They show that Lynch has a very high percentage of total yardage come after contact. Not that he actually gains yardage after contract better than an average running back. Which means he gets hit after fewer yards gained than other runners.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
I’ve already addressed the TDs in a different response, but I’ll throw a short version out there. I do think Buffalo should keep Lynch at this point. I do think that Lynch is the much better runner inside the red zone and should get all the carries there. Neither runner really scores from outside the red zone, so Jackson should still get twice as many carries as Lynch should because he’s the better runner between the 20s.
Marshawn is costing a third of what Jackson is right now.
Which is exactly why Lynch is a goner after his contract ends. What’s short sighted is thinking that Lynch, in a part time role, has a lot of value to this team when he’s not going to be a Buffalo Bill in a few years.
Lynch is more physical and more explosive. With elite YAC: http://profootballfocus.com/articles.php?tab=articles&arc=&id=162
And Jackson has more vision, instincts and body control. If anything, those numbers make Jackson look like the much better back. Down towards the bottom, they call Jackson the 4th most elusive back in the NFL. The chart up top shows that Lynch has a ton of yards after contact, but his average amount of yards gained after first contact isn’t at all impressive. To me, that shows that Lynch stinks at avoiding contact, but makes the best of it anyways. Think about it, Marshawn had the 4th highest percentage of yards gained after contact, but an unimpressive amount of yards after contact per carry, how is that good? Lynch gains 2.2 yards after contact, which is essentially what 4 of the 5 bottom runners in percentage of yards gained after contact averaged. When Reggie Bush picks up 2.1 yards after contact and Lynch picks up 2.2, let’s not pat Lynch on the shoulder for being a player who makes teams pay after the first hit.
Look at the Giants offense a few years ago, when they ran Jacobs, Ward, and Bradshaw
They didn’t run Bradshaw. In a year where the Gaints big three averaged over 29 carries per game (Super Bowl contenders can do that, the Bills can’t) Bradshaw had 4 carries per game. It wasn’t until the playoffs (which Ward didn’t play in) that Bradshaw made a name for himself. 14% of the carries is not a prominant role. Rock Cartwright had 16% of Washington’s carries last year.
Kaiser’s perception of Lynch’s off-field attitude is ranting, inaccurate, and out of proportion
What, specifically was inaccurate? That Lynch doesn’t have a huge ego? If he doesn’t, then he’s pretty slow to not be able to understand that it’s not a good idea to bring your own bottle of alcohol into a bar. Either Lynch is incapable of not doing stupid things, or he thinks the rules are different for him. I don’t think another option exists. If Lynch wasn’t a first round pick and household fantasy football name, then somebody with the consistent run ins with authority wouldn’t be given a carefree, but a little foolish and high profile label. Lynch thinks its OK to do things that almost everybody else doesn’t think is OK. Either he doesn’t get it at all, or he thinks he can do things that other people aren’t allowed to. And I’d never call him malicious, just clueless and/or over pampered.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
by kaisertown on Jun 3, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
my point
is not who is better than who.
my point is that marshawn isn’t costing a ton of money and is a talented player who can fill a valuable role in our offense and shouldn’t be jettisoned after one year where he didn’t reach 1000 yds and had lower TD totals.
the guy had two good years, went to the darn pro bowl, and people want to trade him for a flyer in the draft… thats my point.
jackson can start games take, say, three series, marshawn can have two and spiller will play third downs, special packages, and out of the slot… whatever.
Isn't your link in Jackson's favor?
That link shows him as one of the most elusive backs in the NFL.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Also
That link shows Jackson gains more yards per carry after contact.
Lynch picks up a pretty terrible 2.2 yards after contact.
Jackson picks up 3.0 yards after contact.
Is that not in Jackson’s favor?
Look at some of those RB’s that are listed alongside Lynch in that table….Brian Leonard, Chris Brown, Larry Johnson, Jason Snelling, Michael Bush, Tim Hightower, Clinton Portis….Those are some of the least elusive runners in the NFL, and they’re right there with Lynch. Lynch and Johnson had the lowest yards after contact per attempt there.
Those stats do nothing to help Lynch, at all. They make him look slow, easy to get to, pretty easy to bring down and totally lacking elusiveness. Yay?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
And
I just reread your link and what you said, and I still have no clue how you determined Lynch is actually more physical and explosive than Jackson. The numbers show the complete opposite of that!
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Yards after contact can be misleading
Depends on the type of contact (front on or glancing) But that stat just shows how patient / Elusive a runner Fred is . Marshawn tries to run over guys – and thats hard to do – Fred tries to elude them – so they often only get arms on him and he gains more yards.
Interesting stat – bodes well for Fred.
Stats are so hard to gauge though – because Lynch runs straighter his first contact could be conceivably further downfield than Jacksons “patient” style.
One thing I’ve learned is you need to be a frickin rocket scientist to digest and fully understand all of these stats when compiled together !
3 AM Monday morning games all 2010 - that's just freakin dandy !
I’m not saying to, or not to, trade Lynch, but Jackson’s age is a consideration.
People often say that he’s young for his age because he’s had less carries in the NFL. But he’s been playing football his entire career. It still wears on you getting tackled in an Arena league or in Europe as it does in the NFL (and maybe worse on astroturf).
Regardless of that, I think people at or beyond 30 can tell you that your body doesn’t respond nearly as well as it does in your early 20s. (When I was in my 20s I couldn’t appreciate that). Pointing to a couple guys doing well in their 30s shows it can happen, but there’s lots of guys who fall off the cliff, and plenty of others that aren’t even in the league any more.
pumping up his stereo to levels that 99% of the community would find annoying to the point of being rude
lol – are you 80 kaiser? I love loud music and rocking 10’s, as long as it isn’t 2 in the morning, is fine by me. reminds me of the “get off my lawn” old people comments
We got the tools, We got the talent
haha I kind of got that feeling about that statement too. I mean its just music in a car… a car driving by is gone in 5 seconds… and then the musics gone.
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
lol – that’s about it. it’s not like i’m parking my car infront of your house. even when I pull into peoples driveways I’d turn it down.
it just bothers me when people complain about that – like it’s any different than a semi driving by at high speed or using his jake brake
oh well
We got the tools, We got the talent
by J2 on Jun 3, 2010 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Not if you live at an intersection....
Hey – good post Kai….. Well thought out. If Lynch stays clean and plays up to his potential, keep him. He should show up for ALL the voluntary OTA’s.
Love those Bills but we're tired of losing......
Well if you live at an intersection, you should expect some noise… I mean it is an intersection…
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
that’d be like buying a house near a airport and expecting not to hear any airplanes…..
We got the tools, We got the talent
by J2 on Jun 3, 2010 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, because airplanes have a volume knob
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
a very immature attitude
as long as it isn’t 2 in the morning, is fine by me.
Why should I be forced to listen to your music no matter what the time is. The noise ordinance here has no time distinction….it is 24/7. Some people work nights you know.
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
if they are working nights, how can they hear the music on the street?
by quantumuprising on Jun 3, 2010 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
they sleep in the day
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
so you know a lot of night shift workers that sleep at 5pm on sundays in the ralph’s parking lot after a game?
by quantumuprising on Jun 3, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
yep.....I know all of them
and I am sure Lynch turns his music down the second he rolls out of the lot……riiiiiiiigggghhhhhhtttttt!
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
well for someone who use to work at nights and lived by a highway the only thing that ever bothered me was the semis but the bass was never as bad as those trucks can be. and like bflo said – it’s not like we’re parking in front of your house.
We got the tools, We got the talent
by J2 on Jun 3, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
look, I agree that people don't sleep in the parking lot
The fact is that whatever Lynch was doing, it was enough to get the attention of the police officers who were trying to do their job. If you want to call those cops racists…fine… but I think that is a BS cop out.
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
well i certainly am not going to play the racist card. but did he get pulled over in the parking lot? if so then we would have to be the only franchise in all of sports that has a noise ordinance at their venue
We got the tools, We got the talent
by J2 on Jun 3, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
no one said anything about race here.
by quantumuprising on Jun 3, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe not from you guys (I don't remember), but it was here and seems to have been deleted
Show me the baby CHIX, and it better not look like the pool boy from our vacation at Club Jauron!!!!!
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
Lynch can turn up the music inside his car as loud as he wants. I’m assuming he got pulled over for rocking a base in his trunk because that’s about the only way that somebody can get up to the ticketable decible levels. When you live at an intersection in the city of Buffalo (which I did for a couple years) and it’s the summer where you’ve got the windows open, that stuff is really, really annoying and I can tell you that all the neighbors agreed.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
The Bills need to use Spiller as a running back, and every time he touches the ball can’t be on a gimmicky situation or as a returner or slot WR
I agree with that 100%
But on the ‘Trading Lynch’ part… I dont agree with 100%. I love the way Jackson runs. Always seems to fall forward and pick up that extra yard. Hes a good back. But like Brian said above… Why trade Lynch now? Why not have them (Lynch, Jackson and Spiller) all compete and produce? He is still under contract next year. Some running back will go down in this league with an injury. That team will be in search of a RB… and then maybe thats when we trade him. But why trade him just to trade him? Hang on to the guy and see what he can do for us. We can always trade him if an injury comes up… or even in the off-season next year.
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
I wouldn’t trade him at this point, although I would have tried to trade him earlier this offseason. A very big part of my logic in trading him is that I don’t think he would resign in Buffalo. Another very big part is that I don’t think Buffalo will win in this next season or two. I think the smart thing to do is to take the picks and build for the future; although, if people think Lynch is more useful in a backfield timeshare than the picks and are holding out hope that Lynch is here long term, I can’t really argue that.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
by kaisertown on Jun 3, 2010 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Buffalo can hold on to Lynch and hope for the best, but I thought it was time to trade a short yardage back who will only be here for a couple (losing) seasons for something that could actually be of value down the road. Even if something like a fourth-round pick only has a 10-15% chance of being a great player, I’ll roll the dice with that and another pick to replace Lynch’s role.
Great point. This to me is very key.
No weekend spent pantsless is a wasted weekend.
Very good points...
I’ll still stick with keeping Lynch on the team for depth and the possibility that he will be the starter. Jackson is the man and Spiller the Thriller adds a home run threat, Lynch can be used as a smash mouth runner.
It certainly doesn’t hurt to have 3 quality backs on a team, the only way I would get rid of Lynch is if the Bills got offered a no#2——a 3 or 4 just doesn’t do it especially if he has 2 years left on his contract.
"My relationship with death remains the same as ever. I'm strongly against it."
-- Woody Allen, 2010
I agree 100% with everything you have said
I don’t understand the undying love for Lynch that so many seem to have. If he had been carving up the league before, I’d understand it, but he’s been an above average RB here, and not much else.
I feel that Jackson is the best RB the Bills have right now. I think he deserves to be the starter, and should enter camp with that title. If Lynch somehow beats him out, fine. I just don’t see it happening.
I do think the time to trade Lynch has passed, so he’ll have to stick around as a bit player and potential injury replacement if he can’t win the job…..
I would have taken the mid round picks, too….
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
I am not a Lynch apologist but I will say this. I think people want Marshawn Lynch to be great because he was a first round pick. I think they want him to be successful just so he isn’t a failure. A lot of people stuck up for Losman when he wasn’t playing all that great, too, for much the same reasons.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Pretty much
I think Lynch is viewed in a more positive light because of his draft status, even if that is not intended. I’ve never viewed his play as anything extraordinary.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
You get what I’m saying.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Never said you were, my friend. Fans tend to give first-round picks longer leashes because they think they are so talented.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
no. seriously. i am a self-professed jp fan!
he needs a more open/aggressive offense, though! best of luck to the guy in seattle!
Fans tend to give first-round picks longer leashes because they think they are so talented.
You are correct, I include myself in that group that will give a 1st round pick more rope. It’s due to the fact I’ve seen some blossom after a few years but there is definitely more 1st rounders that have crashed and burned.
"My relationship with death remains the same as ever. I'm strongly against it."
-- Woody Allen, 2010
Mmmm
Those couple of 4th rounders would have helped us too. Still nice value to be had there and we do need the depth – well pretty much everywhere !
Little doubt Jackson opens as the starter – and likely keeps that mantle all year (assuming good health) Lynch will get his time to shine at some point – and lets hope he does for the Bills sake !
3 AM Monday morning games all 2010 - that's just freakin dandy !
Maybin - Tebow
I think we can add Lynch to that list for sensitive topics around these parts lol. But this is why I come here everyday… Keep it going Rumblers!
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
yeah, exactly
am im glad this post is up
AND we’re all friends/bills fans at the end of the day, haha.
Number 1, we tired really hard.
Number 2, we’re all dear friends.
haha yeah this was a good post. Got some nice heated discussion. Love it…
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
the thing i like about not moving Lynch
and i don’t hear mentioned very often is that Nix is setting the precedent that if your not happy with your situation with the team your not going to mope your way outta town. if the right offer comes along i’m all for it. however if Lynch is traded for a 3rd or 4th b/c he’s not happy, then tuff. stick to your guns buddy
by heckems on Jun 3, 2010 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Didn't see this mentioned....
First time long time btw…
anyway I think a big reason to not trade and to be optimistic about big Shawn having a better season is the new coaching. I’m not really talking about the new attitude in the building or anything like that, but the way lynch actually ran.
Last year, it seemed to me the reason he could never get too much going was because he was constantly wasting time trying to juke and split linebackers, which would give enough time for the second round of tacklers to finish him off. I think if he would just run hard, straight, and keep his legs churning, I think he would be much more productive. And I think if Gailey’s staff can coach him in this way, we could see a big rebound this year.
Welcome to commenting!
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Im not sure
why the argument to keep Lynch is being characterized as being composed of a bunch of “Marshawn lovers”. Just an observation from the comments section. Those who want Marshawn gone think its best for the team with a little emotion sprinkled and those who want Marshawn to stay think its best for the team with a little emotion sprinkled in. Lets leave it at that, we’ve heard some great arguments from both sides.
Ok, on to kaisers points:
People need to stop calling him a 30-year-old running back. A handful of months ago, Fred Jackson was 28
If we can’t call him 30, then you can’t really say a “handful” of months ago he was 28. The fact is hes 29 now and will 30 next season. Thats really not a good thing. Jackson has played football his whole life, NFL or not. Hes 29 now with two good backs to take the load off him. How long will he last and how much will our offense suffer when we dont have a good traditional back to spell him and keep him fresh if we trade Marshawn? Marshawn is under contract for two more years, yes? That means two great things. One, we have a pound it out, proven back to spell Jackson and keep him fresh if Jackson does indeed last as an effective player until the age of 31-32. And if he does it will be because we have a Lynch to spell him. Two, if Jackson does indeed breakdown like most backs in their early 30s then we have the option to slide in a more mature, chip on his shoulder Marshawn Lynch who will be 26-27 years old to replace him with the option of resigning him. I dont see how a 4th round pick is worth more than that security blanket which is better for Fred Jackson and the team. I would lastly remind you kaiser that Ronnie Brown is a broken down back who has injuries catching up with career, Michael Turner – who was supposed to be fresh after backing up LT his whole career – finished with 871 rushing yards last year one year after breaking out. Thats a rapid decline no one saw coming after his one 1,700 yard season and hes only 28. Ricky Williams can not be a feature back and needs a guy to share carries with (aka Marshawn) and Thomas Jones is an anomaly. How many other backs are as effective as Thomas Jones at that age? Very, very few.
In regards to your statistical analysis, I’m very curious as to how those numbers change when you exclude the 120 carries Lynch totted this last season. Fair or unfair, I think the analysis is much better without Lynch’s 2009. There were simply too many factors working against him – some of course of his own doing. He was suspended, was benched, had put on extra weight which back fired.
Another thing about your stats is that you can break down rushing stats to really say what you want them to say. I could argue Marshawn Lynch is a more clutch player who comes through when the game is on the line because in games when the point margin was 0-7 points in 2008, Marshawn averaged 4.9 ypc compared to Jackson in 2009 who rushed for only 3.9 ypc with a 0-7 point margin. Meanwhile, in the 4th quarter with a game within 7, Marshawn averaged 4.9 ypc in 2008 compared to Fred Jackson’s much lower 3.0. Does this signify that Marshawn is not only clutch in close games but ups his play towards the end of games with games on the line while Fred actually plays worse towards the end with the game of the line? Stats also seem to indicate that Marshawn Lynch is a back who can give you leads and points to work with. In 2008, Marshawn rushed 7 of his touchdowns in the first three quarters and in 2007 he rushed 5 of them in that time frame. In 2009, Fred Jackson rushed none of his touchdowns in the first three quarters and had both of his only two in the 4th quarters. And guess what? Both of those TDs for Jackson came in the 4th quarter of a 31-14 beatdown at the hands of the hated Dolphins. According to these stats, Marshawn is the performer when his team needs him. Do I believe those stats? No, not really. Broken down stats can paint whatever picture you want. What I do trust is production. In full time gigs: two years, 15 rushing touchdowns to one year 2 rushing touchdowns, 2 years of 1,000 yard production to 1 year 1,000 yard production, 47 receptions in 2008 to 46 receptions in 2009. Jackson does have a yard per carry average but it isnt enough to contradict the touchdown differential. As far as I can tell, Jackson is not clearly the better traditional back and I think its close to irresponsible to deduce that based on one season. They seem on pretty similar footing to me with one finding a way to score more than the other. Heck Lynch had as many rushing TDs as Jackson last year alone despite his 120 carries. Finally, Marshawns much better ypc average in the 4th quarter in 2008 compared to Jacksons 4th quarter 2009 ypc average contradicts your point that Marshawn is worse at wearing down defenses. It also shows that we cant judge Jackson and Lynch because we only have one full time season to judge Jackson on and one full time season of Lynch that wasnt his rookie year – which we all know is a learning curve.
Any argument along the lines of “the Bills will find a way to use them all” or “they can play the hot hand” is a cop-out.
Why? If believing something was possible that hadn’t been done before was a cop out we wouldnt have progress and the game wouldn’t have evolved the way it has. We’d still be seeing work horse backs and there would be no wildcat. Those Giant and Saint teams that had three headed attacks but failed to properly utilize them also had something else – very effective passing games with superstar QBs. There werent enough balls to go around. This Bills team doesnt even have a starting QB let alone a receiving threat outside of Lee Evans. If there was ever a situation to try and establish a three headed rushing attack it is the 2010 Buffalo Bills and I dont think thats a cop out.
will want to return to Buffalo
If Marshawn preforms and becomes part of a rushing machine and Fred eventually fizzles out as most backs at age 31 do, I think all will be forgotten and Lynch will seriously consider resigning here for a good contract. Thinking in the now is no way to think about the future and we have seen many player-organization rows end years later with a happily ever after resigning.
I’m still confused as to where that emotion is with Lynch?
People are very mad Lynch, at least from what I’m hearing and seeing. I dont agree with this at all. Also, Marshawn has proclaimed that he loves the city of Buffalo and hasnt held out and he fights every play. Peters wanted out of Buffalo, held out to our detriment, and gave up on plays. We also didnt develop Lynch from nothing only to be betrayed. The two arent comparable in my opinion
"I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly"
by poz on Jun 3, 2010 12:49 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Jeez-a-lou, man, that was a kaisertown-length comment.
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by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
It takes a kaisertown, to beat a kaisertown.
Formerly of thatguy34 fame.
"And the best decision of my life proved to be the day I signed with the Buffalo Bills." - Jim Kelly
by Jon Harrington on Jun 3, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
haha, love it.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
It's always fun to pull out all the stops
and throw out a 1200 word reply to someone!
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Like you did in my double standard post? :-) I can handle it now. When I first started posting I was floored that someone cared enough to rip me a new one in a comment. Especially big, bad Kurupt.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 5, 2010 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
My thoughts exactly when I scrolled down.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Brian, that would be a fair point if I didn’t always respond to poz’s long post with an even longer response myself.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
Nice write up man. You hit some great points.
Thats Rec-tastic!
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
you and I are on the same page recently my friend
"I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly"
by poz on Jun 3, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Michael Turner
Thats a rapid decline no one saw coming after his one 1,700 yard season and hes only 28.
A lot of people saw it coming actually.
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k9curseof370
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 3, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
fair enough
some saw a drop off coming but down to 871?
"I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly"
by poz on Jun 3, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
An injured ankle didn't help
He couldn’t get it healthy after re-injuring it multiple times.
He averaged 92.3 yards per game in the 9 games he played before missing time to the injury, including the one where he got hurt and only played a half. He also scored 10 TD’s in those 9 games.
If he had stayed healthy for 16 games, those numbers project to almost 1500 yards rushing and 18 TD’s.
I wouldn’t say the dude was declining. That’s unfair. He was just hurt.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Yeah, he missed 5 games, otherwise he had a great season. Atlanta just didn’t give him the ball 20 times a game either. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry and scored 10 times. No decline there.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
recrecrecrecrec
This is a ripely discussed issue. kaisertown has a good amount of response to the many faceted argument he presents. May I add that you’re going to be a great lawyer, poz? One thing I want to say…hopefully I don’t sound pretentious….
This awesome comment was a little difficult to navagate, especially when a new comment bumps the screen while reading it. The great volume of information and opinion therein might prevent someone from delving in, and would therefore miss some of the best points of the discussion.
I would suggest more paragraph breaks (yup, I do sound pretentious.) Anyway, good job, i like, i rec.
I drive a 2010 WhAGON BLASTER w/"Baby on Board!" Bumper Sticker
Wan'na ride?
thanks for the kind words bro. Your suggestion doesnt sound pretentious at all. If I’m going to be a great lawyer I have to learn to communicate as effectively as possible and any tips help!
"I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly"
by poz on Jun 3, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you change your nick from Uncommon Denominator to Undee?
Buffalo Rumblings Premiere League 2009 Champion
Song recommendation of the week: Tool - Right in Two
by TheAfghanTwilight on Jun 3, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Rec that Poz
That post made me smile again and again and again mate !
3 AM Monday morning games all 2010 - that's just freakin dandy !
finally got to this.
If we can’t call him 30, then you can’t really say a "handful" of months ago he was 28
Why not? It’s accurate. People can say that Jackson turns 30 next offseason all they want to. Why do the Bills need a traditional back to spell Jackson? They spent a top 10 pick on CJ Spiller, hopefully he does a lot more than spell Jackson. And I wouldn’t give Jackson short yardage carries either, which would help spell him. I’m not advocating Jackson be a work horse back and I think 12-15 carries per game won’t lead to him declining quicker than he would otherwise.
And to me, Lynch’s age is irrelevant beacuse I’m convinced he’s a goner. I know that’s a highly debatable opinion, but unless I thought Jackson would be declining over the next couple seasons, the age difference doesn’t matter at all to me.
We’ve already touched on Michael Turner, but sometimes guys who get 375 carries get hurt the next season. It happens and other than the injury, there was no decline in Turner’s game at all. and Ronnie Brown has been an injury machine since his early 20s. And my point with them was perception. For whatever reason, people think Jackson is older than he is.
Ricky Williams can not be a feature back and needs a guy to share carries with
Like CJ Spiller? And Williams had 241 carries last year. You’re probably right that Jones is an anomally (maybe a NYJ related one) and Williams probably is too. But, considering the way Jackson runs and his light workload over the 4 or 5 years, I think Jackson can be effective for a at least a few more seasons.
I’m very curious as to how those numbers change when you exclude the 120 carries Lynch totted this last season.
Better, but still not as good as Jackson. Lynch averaged 4.1 and 4.0 ypc in 2007 and 2008, Jackson has consistently been up in the mid 4s. You can take out Lynch’s bad season and he’s still not as good as Jackson was last year. He still doesn’t improve over the course of the game while Jackson does, he still doesn’t run on first and 2nd down as well as Jackson does.
Marshawn averaged 4.9 ypc compared to Jackson in 2009 who rushed for only 3.9 ypc with a 0-7 point margin
And in 2007, Lynch only averaged 3.5 ypc under those circumstances. And I’m not sure how that makes Lynch clutch anyways. Those are games where the final score was within 7 points, so how many of those carries came in the typical first half of a football game? Were there any games that were blowouts up until some cheap meaningless 4th quarter scores? And who were the opponents? Lynch had a huge game in a losing effort against SF which really inflated his overall numbers while Jackson had to play the best defense in the league (the Jets) in close games twice last year. It’s a pretty small sample size.
Jackson does have a yard per carry average but it isnt enough to contradict the touchdown differential
If we’re talking about who should be the starting running back, then absolutely it is. Because Lynch doesn’t really score outside the red zone either. The huge majority of their carries come outside the red zone and I think those are the ones that need to go to Jackson instead of Lynch. If we’re talking about trading Lynch, then maybe. It would all depend on how Buffalo replaced Lynch’s short yardage and inside the 15 yard line role. Obviously, in trading Marshawn, Buffalo would need to find another back to try and increase production in those areas.
As far as I can tell, Jackson is not clearly the better traditional back and I think its close to irresponsible to deduce that based on one season.
They’ve both been in the league for three seasons. Lynch was a starter for two of them. This is the NFL and you don’t really get more time than that to figure out who the better player is. Jackson’s been better so far and better by enough that I’m pretty convinced. Then again, the Bills could always let these guys battle it out, splitting their carries at first (and probably losing production by doing it) and then watch Lynch leave via free agency in a couple years. Maybe by the time he’s on another roster, he will have proved he was the better back.
Marshawns much better ypc average in the 4th quarter in 2008 compared to Jacksons 4th quarter 2009 ypc average contradicts your point that Marshawn is worse at wearing down defenses
By a tenth of a yard it’s better. And Lynch stunk at it in 2007. Those are small samples too.
If believing something was possible that hadn’t been done before was a cop out we wouldnt have progress and the game wouldn’t have evolved the way it has. We’d still be seeing work horse backs and there would be no wildcat.
Those are pretty different things. I don’t think anybody thought that the wildcat was impossible, it just hadn’t been done before. Spiltting up 25 carries between three backs while giving them all prominant roles and getting the best production possible is impossible. You need to use the best player for each situation and that won’t inlcude a big workload from three players.
If Marshawn preforms and becomes part of a rushing machine
Will he be making more than a mil a year for three consecutive years? I don’t think Lynch will overlook that Buffalo refused to give him the playing time that allowed him to make the money that he probably feels was promised to him when he signed his contract. How often do guys request a trade and then go on to resign with that team? Lynch wants out.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
by kaisertown on Jun 4, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
There’s a kaiser reply.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Jun 5, 2010 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
brian mentioned
something about scoring… between the both of them they scored a plebeian 4 TDs last season, two each. make all the excuses you want about the O line, which is understandable, but neither of them did any real TD converting. Yards are nice but 6 points on the board are great too.
In three seasons Lynch has 17 rushing TDs with 1 receiving.
In four seasons Travis Henry had 27 TDs as much as 13 in one season.
In really three seasons Willis Mcgahee had 24 TDs.
I know that there are many factors that go into this, but, no one has talked about the pure scoring ability of these two backs compared to previous ones that we’ve had.
Why do previous RB's matter?
This is all about the 2010 Bills, Lynch, Jackson and Spiller. There’s no reason Travis Henry should be brought into this!!
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jun 3, 2010 1:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Maybe Buffalove83 is one of Henrys children…
I kid, I kid. haha
He sure was fun to watch play though.
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
relax..
i was just throwing down some stats. from previous yrs to show where the running back position was in scoring.
you guys should send me your bro-mail address and ill send you a Smirnoff ice. Dont worry, my dad Travis should be sending me a check for my b day so it wont come out of my pocket.
Not a Smirnoff guy myself...
But I was just messin with ya man. I was actually talking about RB’s and their TD performance earlier in the thread. I think it is important, because above all, besides wins, we want touchdowns.
Just like to make Travis Henry jokes thats all :-)
"Ok, its Gudda hoe, all about my Bills like Buffalo."
plebeian – of the common people, something that is common.
Had to look it up. Always nice to add a word to the ol vocabulary.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
That Lynch may have felt slighted and underused last season will NEVER buy any sympathy from me.
It was his fault to be in that situation. It was his fault he came back less than ready for the season. It was his fault he laid an egg in Miami, and it was his fault he never won back the starting job.
I have no problem with him staying on the team, and I like what he brings to it. I’m just not ready to really ever hear that excuse for last season, that he might have felt slighted in some way.
Buffalo Rumblings Premiere League 2009 Champion
Song recommendation of the week: Tool - Right in Two
by TheAfghanTwilight on Jun 3, 2010 2:55 PM EDT reply actions
It’s not about sympathy, it’s about whether or not he’d be willing to continue to play here in Buffalo, for this same GM, coach and owner after his contract ends. I said all that about Lynch because I think he’s a goner and I think we need to consider him a two year player who offers less value than 4+ year players we can draft in the mid to late rounds of the draft.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
flawed stats comparisons...
If you want to compare stats, compare Lynch’s first X number of carries to Jackson’s carries so they match in number of carries. Or, wait until Jackson catches up to Lynch in number of carries. I’m not saying they will be different, but they sure as hell might be, and that would be a far more accurate comparison. Backs get tired. Marshawn has had more work than Jackson and there is nothing to say Jackson’s production won’t go down as he is asked to do more work over a longer stretch of time.
I’m not trying to protect Lynch or anything, it is just hard to compare numbers when the numbers are so small and yet so different. For instance, your first and 10 comparison, Lynch has had 353 carries vs. Jackson’s 218, that gives Lynch more than 50% more carries than Jackson. That is a HUGE percentage difference and makes the comparison sorta useless in my opinion.
well said clownfat. Its really tough to use a statistical analysis with these two.
"I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly"
by poz on Jun 3, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I think if Bell shows any promise at all
Buddy should pull the trigger on a trade for Lynch.
In 2007 Lynch ran for over 1000 yds,the fans loved Him,the team loved Him,then comes the off season and He gets in trouble.
In 2008 Lynch runs over 1000 yds again..The fans love Him and the team loves Him..Off season comes around and He’s in trouble again,gets suspended in fact.
In 2009 after suspension,Lynch minds His P’s N Q’s,isn’t nearly as effective..Fans cautiously cross the streets downtown at night,but nothing happens
When Lynch can be irresponsible,He can run wild.When He has the same rights anybody else has,He’s ineffective..Bell seems to have the same attitude as Fred Jackson has,and with about the same build as Lynch.If Gailey and Nix see any promise at all there they should let Lynch play out His career elsewhere.Starting a new system like we are now,You NEED everyone on board.I’d take 2-4th rounders for Him in a heartbeat
Never argue with an Idiot,they'll drag You down to their level and beat You with experience every time..
voluntary not
who is kidding who? voluntary workouts? and if no one showed? what would that say about the team’s commitment to excellence?
ok, so there are two players missing. only one has a halfway legit excuse. lynch has no excuse, he is making a statement, and how someone from the sidelines can say whether it is a distraction or not is bizarre.
where i have been, if a player claims to want to start does not bother doing the workouts and team building everyone else is doing, and it is not because of injury or family crisis, it is viewed as the product of a selfishness unworthy of a true teammate.
call it what you will, these are voluntary workouts only in name, and by “labor law.”
what if the qbs blew these workouts off?
Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin are missing Vikings OTAs
it happens all the time
"I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly"
by poz on Jun 3, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Great Article
Rec’d. One comment though.
I don’t understand why some people around here have resigned Spiller to a bit role of 100 carries per season or less.
History.
Reggie Bush and Spiller are similar types of backs. Bush has been most effective when used less as a between the tackles runner, and when his carry numbers go down per game. When the Saints tried to use Bush as a regular RB, the “bust” term came up. As soon as they used him as a 3DB and receiver, he was far more effective.
I think the same will apply for Spiller.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft Owen Marecic in 2011" campaign.
The Saints tried their damndest to give Bush a big role his first couple seasons. He averaged 156 carries, 80 catches and was the primary punt returner for his first couple seasons. The Bills will give Spiller a big role, just like Bush got a big role and if Spiller fails at it, he’ll end up with Bush’s role.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
I don't see it that way
The Other thread was closed before I was able to reply to you, but here are my thoughts for that thread and here:
Spiller has been compared, favorably, to Reggie Bush by many serious draft analysts, including Nolan Nawrocki. If Bush struggled as a runner, why would Buffalo try something that hasn’t panned out in the past? Really, no scatback type has ever really panned out as a runner.
Also, while the Saints had McAllister when they drafted Bush, McAllister was in decline and it wasn’t much of a big deal to pull carries from him. Buffalo has two #1 RB’s in their prime years. So, Spiller doesn’t need to play a larger role than what Bush does.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft Owen Marecic in 2011" campaign.
Why does Reggie Bush have to be the comparison
and the ONLY comparison made???
Why is Jamaal Charles not a comparison? Felix Jones? Chris Johnson, though I wouldn’t go there? And so on.
The Bills didn’t draft Spiller to follow the 2009 Reggie Bush blueprint. So the Bills shouldn’t give Spiller a bunch of touches because Reggie Bush stunk as a heavy workload guy? How does that make sense? I think Spiller is a Charles/Jones type runner more than a Reggie Bush, and both of those guys really started to excel last year when they were given more opportunities. Why can’t we make that comparison?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Jun 4, 2010 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Charles / Jones and Spiller were not similar players in college
You’re making the comparison with who you’d like Spiller to be, not who he is.
Charles played in a spread option, ran outside, but also ran a lot between the tackles in Texas’ offense. Jones did a great deal of his running between the tackles.
Spiller did not. Like Bush, Spiller was used on outside runs, draws, etc. That’s why I compare him to Bush. It’s the same reason that other draft analysts also compare Spiller to Bush.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft Owen Marecic in 2011" campaign.
But do you honestly think that Buffalo drafted Spiller to be Reggie Bush? I think the Bills would have to be by far the worst front office in the league if they actually wanted to take an RB in the top 10 to handle 5 carries, a few catches and some returns per game. That’s a smaller workload than Darren freaking Sproles gets. No way did we just intentionally draft Darren Sproles in the first round. The Bills will give him a big workload.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
I do think they are going to use him similarly to Bush
They already have a number one back (Jackson) and a short-yardage back (Lynch or Bell if Lynch is traded).
If Spiller runs 5 times a game, catches 3-4 balls, returns 3-4 punts, and returns 2-4 kicks, then Spiller is getting 13-17 touches per game. This is just an average over the season, as game touches will fluctuate. But, just like Bush, 13-17 touches per game is enough to make an impact difference, and keep Spiller healthy.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft Owen Marecic in 2011" campaign.
Buffalo has returned almost exactly 32 punts the last few seasons, so Spiller would need to return every punt to get 2 per game. For him to get up around 3 punts per game, the Bills would need to be right near the league lead in punt returns. Buffalo should get about 4-4.5 kick returns per game (maybe 5 if the defense falls apart), so if Spiller gets almost every return all year long, that’s 6 per game. He needs more touches on offense to get up around 15 per game and Buffalo needs to get him at least that many touches for him to be worth what the FO and coaching staff considered a player worth taking in the top 10.
Also, Buffalo needs to fit Spiller into their offense and not try to use him like some dome team with a QB who throws 500 times per year. Buffalo needs to run the ball out of traditional formations. They need to give Spiller carries if they want to actually score points. The Bills don’t have the passing game to try and consistently drive down the field. They’ll be losing a lot more often than winning in the second half of football games. They need to try and hit home runs with Spiller. Why else would they have drafted him? A slot receiver, returner and an RB to use once per quarter on sweeps or other gimmicky carries? In the top 10? I just can’t imagine they would think that is a smart pick for this team.
SFC: Were you excited about Clausen dropping to the Bills pick? Or did you have a feeling that the Bills wouldn’t pick him anyway?
Galliford: Both, like when that hot chick waves at someone she knows standing behind you.
by kaisertown on Jun 5, 2010 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agree REC REC REC
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
I will be ticked if Spiller is getting 5 carries a game
The reason Bush gets so few carries is because he’s been so unproductive. There’s a reason he got fed so many carries early in his career. They wanted him to be something he’s not.
If Spiller is getting 5 carries a game going forward, then it’s a waste of his talents. And the draft pick.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
I'm not making a comparison to who I want him to be
I want him to be Barry Sanders, Chris Johnson, Gale Sayers and Thurman Thomas rolled into one.
I’m asking why the only comparison made absolutely has to be Reggie Bush. Just because they were used similarly in college doesn’t mean they’ll be used the same way in the pros. If the Bills were drafting Spiller to be their Reggie Bush, I’m pretty ticked.
And are you sure Jones ran a lot between the tackles? I thought Arkansas ran a TON of wildcat with McFadden and him getting a lot of work off tackle and outside as a result.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Very good arguments on both sides....
but I do lean a little towards the reasoning with kaisertown. However, as Brian pointed out, keeping him for depth is a valid
Sorry to get off topic but does anyone know if Lynch has the new playbook? or does he have to wait until he reports?.
Great article. Rec'd.
I agree that we should move Lynch. He just wont get the carries that he needs to be usefull on this team, and if he doesn, then he’ll be taking away carries from Jackson and Spiller.
Problem with trading him this year (before the draft) was the market for running backs this year made the price extremely low. Personally i would have settled for a 3rd or a 4th and 5th, but I highly doubt that anyone would have offered us that. Leon Washington, who is highly more productive that Lynch last season, went for a 5th rounder alone. What makes you think that anyone would have offered us a third for him? I don’t think it would have happened.
So it basicly comes down to what your willing to accept for a trade with Lynch, or proper value, and a 5th or 6th rounder alone doesn’t cut it. A 3rd or a 4th and 6th sure, but a 5th or a 6th alone, no way.
Washington? Check. Pittsburg? Check. Philly? Wont be a pro... errr.... GO BLACKHAWKS!!!
by CanadianBillsFan on Jun 3, 2010 7:21 PM EDT reply actions
I know others have already said it but...
1. What happens if Fred Jackson gets injured?
2. Lynch situation is not like the Peters situation, because Lynch is the 3rd string RB and Peters was the starting LT.
3. Looking back at the drafts, Lynch was one of the few draft picks to make a pro bowl. The odds are stacked against a newly accuired 3rd or 4th round pick making a pro bowl.
4. Keeping him shows other players that you can’t bully OBD into getting what you want.
5. When Lynch gets on the field, he won’t be lacking insentive to play hard.
I could go on but I think I made my point.
Don´t get it
Why in the world would most of you (Brian) have wanted to trade Marshawn since December?? Let me reming you the guy is 23 – 24 years old and a “pro bowl” under his belt. As much as I love Fredy, he´s 30 and you all know what happens to 30 year old backs, I say Fred giives us as much as 2 more good years and that´s all.
Although we all know CJ is gonna be very good, we don´t know his durability, and I think Marshawn is a great compliment to CJ.
Imagine if we trade Marshawn (and you all know we won´t get better than a 4th) Fredy injures himself or simply doesn´t live up to this years hype?? Then what??
KEEP MARSHAWN THE GUY IS A HECK OF A BACK.
Do you really think Lynch is going to be a Bill in 2 years?
Even if he has a good year this year and next….
Why does Fred potentially getting injured seem so much more plausible than Lynch getting hurt? Imagine if Lynch shreds his knee in the preseason? Then what?!?! This type of argument can be made about any player in the league.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Final point is you don´t trade a very good football player for a 4th rounder.. I´m not saying is the same but I know you all remember what the Raiders got for Moss in the #$%& Patriots trade.
Yep a guy that last year had something like 9 total tackles in his career. (via draft)
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