Football Outsiders' 2010 Bills Forecast: "What A Mess."
by Brian Galliford on Jul 12, 2010 8:58 AM EDT
in Buffalo Bills News
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PrintMost of you are at least peripherally aware of the outstanding, exhaustive, intricate work put together by the folks over at Football Outsiders (FO). They've just released the Football Outsiders Almanac for the 2010 season as of last week; if you've got a dozen bucks to spare and enough time to get through 575 pages of stats and analysis before September 12, you won't spend better money to feed your geekery.
As our headline alludes to, the preview section dedicated to the Buffalo Bills - penned by Aaron Schatz, FO's Editor-in-Chief who also does work for ESPN - begins with a less-than-enthusiastic phrase.
Without giving too much away (and I'm going to assume that a very small percentage of you will register shock that the full breakdown isn't very optimistic), FO is projecting the Bills for 5.2 mean wins, four fewer than Miami and a very distinct last place in the AFC East. The projection is, of course, based on DVOA, rather than being based off of gut feelings, glitzy off-season moves and hype, as you get with most other pre-season NFL publications. FO projects New England to win the division, followed closely by both New York and Miami.
FO does, however, offer some glimmers of hope, with the most prominent of those being health. Yes - health. FO mentions that there's no possible way that the Bills incur as many injuries as they did in 2009, which flies in the face of the idea that Buffalo may or may not be cursed when it comes to the game-day health of its players. Still, the point is a good one - not every team that's gotten significantly healthier following an injury-riddled season has drastically improved, but it's happened often enough to spark at least a little optimism - not to mention highlight the importance of men like John Gamble and Eric Ciano with this organization.
We'll leave you with a question this morning - will Buffalo fall short of, meet, or exceed that 5.2-win projection?
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I think that 6 wins is meeting.
You can’t win 5.2 games. So the projection has to be 5-6 wins right? Anyway, I’ve got serious optimism going on. I say exceed. I really think that this group is so sick of losing that they win four or five more wins than they should out of shear determination. I’m going to say that the Bills win 9 games this year, beating each division opponent once.
Oh, and I just don’t care how crazy that sounds, but please, feel free to argue.
You can’t win 5.2 games. So the projection has to be 5-6 wins right?
Think of it as an over/under.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Jul 12, 2010 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Ha....I should be charging Brian :-)
Posted this a few weeks ago and it was free :-)
2-14 and 8-8 are equall possible
Look at the schedule and show me 8 wins. Games we have a shot at winning:
Fins
Jags
@ Chiefs
Bears
Lions
Browns
That is 6 games. We will probably win half, so 3 wins. Add in 1 game that some team gives us the win by committing 6 turnovers and another late season meaningless win vs scrubs, and that adds up to 5 wins, plus or minus 3 gives you…..yep, you guessed it.
by Joe P. on Jun 25, 2010 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions
So since the number is 5.2 and not 5, I am going under.
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
I had then
"What wins the majority of the time is blocking, tackling, throwin', catchin' and kickin" - Chan Gailey
by dragonwag0n on Jul 12, 2010 8:40 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'm going......... 7-9!
Seriously, 7-9 again.
I say we have a very good shot at winning every game in November (yes, including the Steelers) and add in the Jags, Chiefs and Browns. I also feel we could surprise a bigger team or 2 along the way to make up for the 1 or 2 winnable games that we will lose.
I imagine 7-9 would be pretty well received these days…….(!)
"Don't I know you?"
"Nah, that ain't me, man. I'm from Buffalo"
Destiny
7-9. That is all. With Trent as the starter 3-5 with Brian Brohm going 4-4 to finish up the season. With Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starter 4 – 5 with Brian Brohm going 3-4 to finish up the season.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
I had them winning between 5-7 games this year
So I don’t see this as a shock. A lot of other football outlets such as nfl network, nfl.com and yahoo have the bills ranked 30th and 31st in the league and I have a hard time thinking they will be that bad.
As long as most key players stay healthy, and some high round picks start producing, I can see this team playing the role of spoiler for a few teams who overlook them.
"What wins the majority of the time is blocking, tackling, throwin', catchin' and kickin" - Chan Gailey
by dragonwag0n on Jul 12, 2010 8:44 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think
…we can win any Jets game. I don’t think we necessarily will, but I think they will be close, low-scoring games. The Jets don’t look to me like a team that will generate a lot of blowouts. Sure, they added Santonio Holmes, but he doesn’t look to me like a terrifying matchup problem a la Randy Moss or Brandon Marshall. I think the point totals for the Bills-Jets games will be between the 30s and 40s.
Everyone is assuming we’ll lose to them, but they were only 9-7 last year, guys. 8-8 if the Colts don’t gift them into the playoffs. They’ve added some pieces … but so have we.
I think we win at least 5. Im guessing 6-10, 7-9… but I dont think Id be shocked if we fell anywhere between 3-13 and 9-7.
Old school Bills tattoo [ √ ] Old school Sabres tattoo [ √ ] ... see the avatar.
Lets Go Buffalo!!
That’s exactly where I am. The bright spot: as the season progresses I think we are going to start looking fairly competitive against good teams (something that was conspicuously not true during the Jauron era).
Me too.
I feel this team growing stronger as the year goes on. A few early season wins would help speed that up… but I expect this team to grow all year.
Old school Bills tattoo [ √ ] Old school Sabres tattoo [ √ ] ... see the avatar.
Lets Go Buffalo!!
A refreshing change.
I agree, also I expect us to grow stronger through out the game, finishing the fourth quarter stronger a few times.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
IMHO they will
be better than they were last year. Also, I think that Edwards will eventually give way to Brohm who will be their undisputed starter in ‘11-’12. The Bills will be a .500 team this year.
With ya...
With coaching changes, NFL-worst injury count, and an off-the-cuff offensive scheme, the Bills pulled out 6 wins. MRW and BG have highlighted how many times the Bills went into the 4th leading or within striking distance only to blow it. With a solid offensive scheme and more aggressive conditioning, I think the Bills can at least take back a couple of those 4th quarter giveaways. Offensive yards and run defense were the two truly ugly parts of last year. Let’s say offense at least maintains status quo. I’m thinking run defense makes some improvement and pass defense stays solid….puts me in the line of thinking that Bills not only maintain their 6 wins from last year, but they also add on another 2-3 wins.
Sounds crazy, but I think 8-9 wins are in reach.
I think that’s about right as far as a prediction goes.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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I said it before
and I’ll say it again. This is a better team than last year. The line could be a lot better if Levitre and Wood take that valuable second year jump. The run D will be light years better and if the offense could put some points on the board, we will be a 7-9 win team, bank on that.
I remember hearing similar things last year.
You can’t be worse at C than Fowler and Preston
Dockery was awful, there’s no way that isn’t an upgrade
That bum Peters gave up tons of sacks in 2008
Woods is a 1st rounder – that’s an upgrade at RG.
Butler’s back at RT!
Ya and we won 6 games. Huge difference than last year though is that we don’t have Soft Dick Jauron coaching this club. I didn’t think we could be succesful at all last year. We have a much bigger front 7, are new coach actuatly demands toughness from our players and most importanly we wont play to lose. Your truly underestimating how bad Jauron is.
Your truly underestimating how bad Jauron is.
Very True, but he still won 7 games a season. Not 3 not 5 but 7 and you are very accurate.
I can’t wait for Gailey to enforce his accountability tactics. This will be so opposite of what these players are used to. Very well could turn some of them off. I find today’s generation highly motivated but extremely week in accountability. Superstar players are done at the end of high school, then college and then start all over in the pros, Gailey is huge on holding his players accountable and we have a very young team.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
Some of our younger players know no different than to be coached by Jauron in the pros.
You could see in Whitners’ face the difference in philosphy from day one when he was asked in front of a camera (all sweated up btw) if there were differences between Jauron and Gailey.
If they see a change for the better those players will embrace hard coaching.
If hard coaching turn them off, good riddance, and that goes to veterans as well.
Ya this is what I’m excited about. It’s also crazy to hear guys like Fred and Trent say that Chan ACTUALLY talks to them in the huddle and after plays. To think they didn’t get this from Jauron is mind bendings.
Jauron respected them as men. Jauron trusted his playes would do the right thing and get better in the offseason by their own.
Some followed his advice and some didn’t. Human nature.
Even if you’re a grown man, you need to be pushed to the limits to reach your potential, same goes to young men.
Jauron was a romantic fool, thinking that his men would follow because he was just and understanding.
Players, in general, are sons of rigor and they have to pushed to get the most of them.
Well those were the case…
Hang was better than Fowler/Preston
Levitre was an upgrade over Dockery or at least as good for a lot less
Peters gave up a ton of sacks in 2008 (and 2009)
Wood played well. I don’t know if anyone said anything about an upgrade over Butler.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Jul 12, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Pretty much.
The team last year wouldn’t have only won 6 games if it weren’t for the piles of injuries, I maintain that. They wouldn’t have been a superbowl contender, but they probably had a shot at the Wild Card had they stayed healthy all season.
Hammel-Chicken wearing USA gear says "booo"
The 09/10 Colorado Rockies: Starring Johnny Herrera as THE ANSWER
THIS IS BUFFALO NATION GODZILLA HAS AWAKEN - abayarde
SBNation Denver: Because the Rapids are people too!
by UZ on Jul 12, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Not that either of us could make a truly strong argument for this....
But how exactly would fewer injuries have propelled this team to a potential Wild Card berth? They still had awful QB play, a pathetic run defense and were unable to generate pressure on the opposing QB. Those were issues going into last season, and were the biggest reasons why this team stunk last year. What players who were injured would have really improved those areas?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Just for argument’s sake, the linebacker corps was decimated by injuries early and often. Maybe that changes the run defense part. We were all worried about the linebackers going into the season anyways. I would have been a lot more comfortable with Ellison stepping in for an injured Poz than Marcus Buggs.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Jul 13, 2010 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
yeesh
i was uncomfortable with either… i liked palmer for what he was… either way we have had exactly 1 true NFL linebacker on this team for some time…. and he is still slightly undersized, but makes up for it with a high motor, intelligence, leadership and all the other intangibles you want out of a starting MLB. However, when he goes down, which he has done too often (quit the arm tackles MAN!!!!) then we really were just basically starting “nobodys”.
FS Jairus Byrd aka the Buffalo Bills' Silver Lining
I dont know how you think the run D will be better........
Chan Gailey's #1 Fan!
by norcaliangelsfan on Jul 12, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
because the feeling generally presented
is they can’t be worse… well not much… not too far you can fall from 30th.
FS Jairus Byrd aka the Buffalo Bills' Silver Lining
So lets just say that team this year decide to run the ball 100-150 times less over the course of the year.....
and throw the ball more instead…….(because the team cant stop the pass for whatever reason)
statistically the team might be better against the run…….
but would they truly be better?
Chan Gailey's #1 Fan!
by norcaliangelsfan on Jul 12, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Well there'd have to be a reason for the 150 carry reduction, right?
You could probably argue that if that was the case, it’d be because the team was tougher to run against.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
or easier to pass against :-)
Chan Gailey's #1 Fan!
by norcaliangelsfan on Jul 12, 2010 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont know how you think the run D will be better……..
Forgive me if I misunderstood, we are talking overall defense or RUN defense. You did say the run D though, right? so basically the only way to compare the two defenses, as i am sure people will, is to look Avg yards per rush against and total rushing yards against. so if teams chose to attack us via pass instead, our run defense is yes inherantly better. but is it likely teams will choose to attack us through the air, instead of running, if we have a 30th ranked defense against the run, and a 15th against the pass?
FS Jairus Byrd aka the Buffalo Bills' Silver Lining
by Ren Diggity on Jul 12, 2010 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont know if I agree with the fact if one team chooses to attack us one way......that the other part of the D is "inheriently" better....
Maybe I would use the word weaker…………I dont think anything on the defensive side of the ball is better than the other right now………when overall the defense was/is fairly weak.
Of course moving to the 3-4 no one really knows what to expect……I know alot of folks are optimistically assuming it will be better………….and very few are talking about how it could pessimistically be worse overall.
Chan Gailey's #1 Fan!
by norcaliangelsfan on Jul 12, 2010 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
i made that statement from your inference!!! YOU said that....
So lets just say that team this year decide to run the ball … less over the course of the year, and throw the ball more instead…….(because the team cant stop the pass for whatever reason)
statistically the team might be better against the run…….
but would they truly be better?
FS Jairus Byrd aka the Buffalo Bills' Silver Lining
8-8
With some players really coming along. And in 2011 the Bills are primed and ready for a serious playoff run.
"Ability without character will lose. The Bills are going to be a team of high character. That stamp I will push very hard. I hope we can convey that to our fans and project something very special to the rest of the nation." - Marv Levy
by BuffaloBlueBlood on Jul 12, 2010 9:30 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I like FO but they try to replicate Baseball Prospectus but with a smaller sample size. Like any predictions, theirs are either good or way-off (I remember them predicting the Rams to win 9 games last year).
Yes, they still have a ways to go, but they’re still in their relative infantcy. But overall they’re doing a decent job predicting, and a much better job of analyzing (although better looking back than looking forward).
I agree. I’m a big statistical analysis guy for both baseball and basketball, but there’s just too many players and variables in football and not enough individual outcomes; I don’t think it’s a lock-down science, rather I treat it as another source of information. It’s hard to separate one player from the other 10 that are on the field in terms of statistical analysis.
by Jeff Winters on Jul 12, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
They’ve predicted the Chiefs to win 9 games (along with the AFC West) this year.
by Brian Galliford on Jul 12, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s pretty surprising since 1) Matt Cassel was awful last year, and 2) FO generally loves the Chargers.
by Jeff Winters on Jul 12, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Uh.
Hammel-Chicken wearing USA gear says "booo"
The 09/10 Colorado Rockies: Starring Johnny Herrera as THE ANSWER
THIS IS BUFFALO NATION GODZILLA HAS AWAKEN - abayarde
SBNation Denver: Because the Rapids are people too!
by UZ on Jul 12, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
a more highly scientific approach
4253 the total sum of all Bills jersey numbers divided by 80 man roster = 53.16
53.16 divided by 11 (number of years since last playoff appearance) = 4.83
Numbers don’t lie….take that FO!
The future ain't what it used to be - Yogi Berra
by fansince60 on Jul 12, 2010 10:12 AM EDT reply actions 7 recs
LOL.....best statistical analysis ever...rec'd
"I’m not sure if I disagree with this being the logic behind Nix’s decisions or if I disagree with this logic if it is what lead Nix to address the positions he did, but I definitely disagree with something." - kaisertown
Hard to argue that
The Bills are a clear cut #4 in the division, so finishing any higher will take a big surprise out of the Bills or an injury riddled failure of a season out of another division foe.
I think 4-6 wins is what we should all expect. If Brohm ends up the starter, I’d put us on the low end of that projection. If Fitz is the starter, 6 might be a better guess. Edwards could lead us from zero to six wins, IMO.
Whatever happens, I just hope we are in position to draft a top QB prospect in the first round next year. This team cannot go another year without addressing the biggest need and most important position on the field.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Edwards could lead us from zero to six wins, IMO
zero – come on – he’s not that bad
We got the tools, We got the talent
if he is 0-4
then he would likely go 0-16, as he will get benched for Brohm or Brown and at least allow the staff to make assessments on all QBs available to them. This is not my belief, as i feel as though we will go 2-0, and then slide to end up 7-9, with the posibility of8-8,9-7 depending on at least splitting through the division.
FS Jairus Byrd aka the Buffalo Bills' Silver Lining
7-9
Enough with the 7-9 seasons. That has been the demise for us. A 7-9 season puts the team on the verge of being “good” but gives us a mid level draft pick. I say put Fitz in all season, end up 4-12, and get a quality pick so we can get a few more quality picks and build a real team. You can get quality o-linemen in the second, third, fourth rounds, but we need a QB ASAP. On a side not, I am a die-hard UConn fan and Easley will pan out, but besides that, Brohm was a nasty QB is college, I just hope he can get over his confidence issues at the NFL level.
I’m saying 7-9. We’ll be better coached(hopefully) and healthier than last year, and I think this team will play desperate this year.
As a child I always wondered why a frisbee got bigger the closer it got. Then it hit me.
7-9 is really pissing me off. Either get to the playoffs or suck bad enough to get some great players already!
"This is what happens Larry!, This is what happens! "-Walter Sobchak" "Did we give up when the germans bombed pearl harbor!!??"-John Belushi
by BigEasyBillsKrewe on Jul 12, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
3-13
I suspect a 3-13 season based on inadequate QB play and our inability to find a LT worthy of the name.
Our defense will come along but will face the age old problem of wearing down in the 4th quarter. We’ll lose several very close games but we’ll still lose them.
However with a season under their belts, both Nix and Gailey will realise that these two positions will need to be addressed and drafting at No4 and No36, will address these two positions in next years draft.
Personally if we can take Andrew Luck at No4 and have Matt Reynolds slide to us at No36, and I think we’d definitely be playoff bound in 2011, with 4 decent WR, a RB one-two of Spiller-Jackson (Lynch traded) and a OL of REYNOLDS-Levitre-Wood-Meredith-Calloway.
The defense will sort itself out, and I expect Danny Batten to prove a really pleasant surprise opposite Maybin.
Hmmm, their analysis really follows along with what my gut feelings on this team are as well
I think we improve as the season goes along (IF we are healthy) and that we might sneak a game or two out. I think us winning between 6 and 7 games is feasible this year, and that would be real progress since we are overhauling the team right now.
abayarde- "I SAY this get ready cause the BUFFALO BILLS ARE COMING TO TOWN and I dont mean like Santa clause. WE will not Surrender this is were you all FALL The WHAGON BLASTER IS TAKING OFF AND YOU PUNKS are in our way, This wagon has no BREAKS so get ready for the ride of the life time"
Under
With Edwards getting more looks against the 3-4 defense this upcoming season (every practice + games), maybe this is the year Edwards turns into the QB some of us thought he could be, if so, I would say over, but I have had my heart broken many times by the Bills. While I want to be optimistic and say over, I just don’t think I can.
by Hassanali181 on Jul 12, 2010 3:17 PM EDT reply actions
There are 3 kinds of lies....
lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Football is impossible to predict, just ask the 2000 Rams, the 2002 Patsies, and the 2008 G-men. All three came out of nowhere any way you slice it up. That’s why they play the games folks….
Billieving in MD,
GO BILLS!
4-6 is a good realistic number.........
any thing more would be unreal…….and anything less would be an utter disaster.
Chan Gailey's #1 Fan!
by norcaliangelsfan on Jul 12, 2010 5:55 PM EDT reply actions
So 4 wins isn't an utter disaster?!?!
Haha
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Have you seen our roster?
really, have you? Because I think an utter disaster means something different for an NFL team than it does for the Lions or the Bills.
by Hopefulcynic on Jul 12, 2010 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I haven't seen our roster
Who’s on it?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Analysis
I want a projected roster and a number of plays for each of those players., followed by the number of plays at that position (I’m referring to the change to 3-4 here) Tell me how many of those look like good sample sizes. Meredith and Bell, Spiller, every WR not named Parrish or Evans, Troup, Stroud, pretty much every OLB, Poz, and (if he’s the starter) Brohm all have played too few NFL snaps to be easily evaluable. Now, chances are that we’ll get some hits and some misses, but if just one or two of those guys outperform projections, especially if the two are a QB and a LT, we might do better. Of course, that unpredictability could cut the other way and they could underperform. However, a young team is one that is more likely to surprise which makes me wary of trying to predict how they’ll do. Besides, the fun (or pain) is in watching and seeing how it all turns out.
4
This is the NFL and anything can happen and these are the rose colored glasses days when every team thinks they have a legitimate playoff shot.
Our reality is that we are very young and have far too many question marks to truly put together a winning season. As it looks now the Bills have a very tough schedule and I feel 4 wins is realistic.
What we should look for and hope for is continued improvement throughout the season that leads us to believe the Bills plan is working. Look for improvement and bright signs from the young player that will be the nucleus of this team moving forward. That is what we will measure this season by.
Don't underestimate this team.
They are hungry. New leadership and new philosophy.
One game at a time.
Could surprise.
Buffalo Bills or Die.
What do you think the Miami guys were saying
after finishing 1-14.
Made the playoffs next year.
It’s football. The best game ever.
Buffalo Bills or Die.
What Miami did.
When you look at what they did in free agency in 2008 and don’t forget they were also transitioning to a 3-4 was to sign a few veterans either in Free Agency or by Trade, though apart from Starks, Ferguson and Fasano few actually stuck, and drafted in the trenches.
There first four picks were Long (OL), Merling (DL), Henne (QB) and Langford (DL). They also found another starting OL in Thomas in R6 and a competent WR in Bess in UDFA.
We are actually further along than they are. We’ve got a lot of potential on the DL in Carrington-Troup-Edwards, and at LB in Batten-Moats-Posluzny-Maybin. Our secondary is also better.
We’ve got a deeper group of WR in Easley, Hardy and Johnson to add to Evans, as good a running game and a decent TE.
Where we fall down is with the OL and at QB. Woods-Hangartner-Levitre make a decent interior but OT is a disaster zone. We have Calloway a RT, and Meredith, Bell, and Wang at LT but none inspire confidence.
If we are drafting in the Top5 next year, then we must go for QB with the likes of Locker, Mallett and maybe Andrew Luck available.
We’ll still have a Top 37 pick in R2 and this must go on a top LT. Guys who might be available include Jason Pinkston, Clint Boling, Nate Potter and Matt Reynolds all of who would be an immediate upgrade over what we have.
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