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How Valuable Is C.J. Spiller, Fantasy Commodity?

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With injuries to Buffalo Bills running backs Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch, the fantasy world has been buzzing about rookie C.J. Spiller. Already poised to play a large role in Buffalo's offense, Spiller is now temporarily the Bills' first-team running back, and could open the regular season in that capacity.

Back at the end of April, we did a speed back study trying to figure out just how involved - and just how productive - Spiller could be as a rookie, and as part of a platoon at his position. The study gave us some ranges to work with; rookie speed backs typically log between 132-187 carries, 37-44 receptions, 20-33 kick returns, 950-1,300 offensive yards and six to nine touchdowns, all while missing a game or two.

Consider those ranges, and assume that Spiller will fall within those ranges, or perhaps exceed them, in 2010. Our question for you today: how valuable is a running back with that type of production? Where, for example, would you feel comfortable drafting a running back in that situation? The comments section is all yours, folks.

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In my one league

they give a point per 20 yards a in returns. I figured spiller would be the bills Kick Return guy and drafted him in the 5th round. I excepted him to also get some receiving yards and rushing yards. May people laughed but if he gets two or three returns a game I am assuming he will get more than 20 yards on at. Thats 3 points plus whatever he does in a game rushing and receiving. This league is 20 players deep so minimum points could really effect who wins. By the 7th round it was hard getting quality players and I had to start drafting players that could be good but you just dont know. 4-6th round in many leauges (10-12 players) you have to at least get a QB, RB, WR before going with him.

A man must except his fate or be destroyed by it

by BillsStampede34 on Aug 18, 2010 10:39 AM EDT reply actions  

I have a strict policy...

of not drafting Bills. I know that it’s purely superstitious, but for years, every Bill that I drafted got hurt or had a down year. Not that it’s helped much, but not drafting Bills helps keep me from a) feeling responsible (I know that’s crazy), and b) getting doubly pissed off during bad games.

That said, if I were someone other than me, I would draft Spiller as a 3, but only if you’re bye weeks for your top two have the Bills up against weak run Ds, which the Bills don’t face very many of this season. The Bills play 7 games against teams that finished last season in the top 8 run defenses, and 4 more against the Pats and Dolphins who may be improved defenses this season.

by Boogie on Aug 18, 2010 10:49 AM EDT reply actions  

superstitious? More like incredibly wise. Anybody who picks a Bill hoping to get points in a fantasy league is absolutely insane. The idea is to score points. Picking anyone from our team (aside from maybe special teams) kinda defeats that purpose.

by quantumuprising on Aug 18, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

hahahahaha – rec’d

I'm not sure we have the tools or the talent....

by J2 on Aug 18, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Picking anyone from our team (aside from maybe special teams) kinda defeats that purpose

because of that – hilarious

I'm not sure we have the tools or the talent....

by J2 on Aug 18, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

even that kinda defeats the purpose, unfortunately. I took Lindell last year as my lone bill, and in fantasy, he doesn’t really standup all that well. Compared to others, he really doesn’t kick very many field goals, and at least under jauron, definitely not very many long field goals. I’m definitely going to try and get a dome kicker this year.

by quantumuprising on Aug 18, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not drafting Bills is smart

although, I picked up the Bills D for a couple weeks and they gave my good points. The Bills’ starting Tight End may not be a bad backup or emergency option.

by Ono on Aug 18, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just noticed that...

The Bills play each of the best 6 defenses from last year, including two games against the best (Jets), and each of the worst 3 defenses from last year.

All or nothing for the Bills O this year.

by Boogie on Aug 18, 2010 10:53 AM EDT reply actions  

I really like Spiller with Marshawn and Freddy healthy and playing.

I consider Marshawn our short yardage, red-zone threat. I consider Freddy to get us to that point and maybe inside the ten for Marshawn. I consider C.J. to bypass all that and take it to the house from anywhere on the field. So I say your cumulative stats are reasonable expectations.

Also, I look at Bell and Simpson as C.J.‘s depth. I look at C.J. to be Freddy’s depth. I look at Freddy to be Marshawn’s depth in case of injury. If this two back offense is the direction we are going we will need Marshawn and Freddy as critical needs especially in the early going of 2010. This will create opportunity for Chan to mix in C.J. to reach the above goals without taking away from Freddy and Marshawn.

I don’t like C.J. starting from the beginning and carrying the load for a Marshawn and Freddy. Yes he is capable, I just prefer the alternative I mention above until C.J. has accumulated himself to the high expectations of the NFL and a full bore RB in this league.

WE may not have a choice as things are now, but I view things to our advantage with the availability of Freddy an Marshawn to create alternatives for C.J.,Chan and this Offense.

YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde

by VanScottM on Aug 18, 2010 11:08 AM EDT reply actions  

fantasy draft

I would consider Spillar a 5th or 6th rounder after a qb, 2 rbs & wr or two.

CC Infantino

by lostlasvegan on Aug 18, 2010 11:10 AM EDT reply actions  

I'd only draft Spiller if return yards are counted

And he’s the full time KR for us. Well that’s the only league I’d draft him as a potential starter. He could be a good backup in regular leagues, once again assuming 15 touches or so a game.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Aug 18, 2010 12:34 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

In my league I’d take him as a #4 RB. I say that because (mostly for good reason) most in my league avoid Bills players. So I think he can be had late in the draft say around round #10-11. If he’s there, he’s mine. I like taking rookie RB’s late because there’s always that one guy that comes from out of nowhere. Who knows, maybe it will be Spiller this year. I may even reach & take him as a #3 depending on how the draft goes & how dry the RB pool gets. I almost hate to speculate because you just never know how the draft is going to go.

by billskk69 on Aug 18, 2010 1:05 PM EDT reply actions  

his value is in a keeper league

because you may not have a chance to draft him again… if you don’t pick him up this year. depending on your league setup, he could go anywhere from the 4th-8th round, as he is likely to share too much time in the backfield to be selected as a #1 or #2 RB.

Optimism is free. Too bad so many are "too good" for free stuff. If you have some, donate your optimism here. They may not accept it, but someday, if they need it, they can swallow their pride and appreciate it.

by Ren Diggity on Aug 18, 2010 1:42 PM EDT reply actions  

Not worried about fantasy........

Versus the Colts, I want to see REALITY!!!!
Rookie RBs can go off like crazy-men right out of the gate (if they are pro-caliber).
I want to see our first round pick this game, with the 1st stringers, and looking like he can/will produce for us this year.
C’mon CJ!

"Adversity is an opportunity for heroism." Marv Levy.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Aug 18, 2010 5:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Spiller

In one word he’s “money”, thinking 3rd maybe 2nd rd. I believe Bills are gonna use Spiller alot! What other weapons we got? He’s that good, I hope:)

Home of "Spiller the Thriller"

by buffalobacker on Aug 19, 2010 3:49 AM EDT reply actions  

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