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Around SBN: Sixers Vs. Celtics: Countdown To Game Seven

Bills Must Produce On Third Downs At Lambeau

Throughout this week, we've talked about several keys that the Buffalo Bills must hit on if they hope to play competitive football with the Green Bay Packers tomorrow afternoon. In one post, we discussed the need to contain the Packers' two excellent tight ends, Jermichael Finley and Donald Lee, defensively, while keeping track of second-year pass rusher Clay Matthews offensively. In a second post, aided by NFL.com, we took a look at two Green Bay weak points - its offensive tackles, and its susceptibility behind the blitz.

Perhaps the most critical factor of all, however, is production - from both sides of the ball - on third downs. We can ask Buffalo to run the ball more offensively, or to try to generate heat on quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but the best chance the Bills have at pulling a major upset is by playing keep-away with the football.

Buffalo converted just three of 14 third-down opportunities in Week 1 against Miami, while also going three-and-out seven times. And yes, Buffalo's defense forced three Miami three-and-outs, but their 8-of-18 mark on third downs leaves room for improvement. If the plan is to keep Green Bay's explosive offense off the field as much as possible (and why wouldn't it be?), it's imperative that the Bills sustain drives offensively and get off the field defensively when they have the opportunity to do so. That's simple in theory, but this team makes it extraordinarily difficult to pull off.

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Don't scare me Brian....

that write looks suspiciously like many of the ones from last year…
Convert third down…..
Stop on third down…

The draft dawns a new year for Buffalo Bills fans, so let optimism reign supreme!!! After all, we are now, UNDEFEATED!!!!

by Cinga on Sep 18, 2010 2:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Personally

I’d rather the offense produce on 1st and 2nd down.
But that’s probably asking too much.

by twoeightnine on Sep 18, 2010 2:45 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

This is exactly what I was thinking

It’s saying the obvious, but the better we do on 1st and 2nd down, the less 3rd downs we have to convert.
I wonder what five teams in the NFL faced the least amount of 3rd downs last year. I’d be willing to wager at least 3 were playoff teams.

Blame where you must, be candid where you can, And be each critic the Good-natured Man. - Oliver Goldsmith (Excellent advice)

Go Jazz! Go Hogs! GO BILLS!

by Dyl on Sep 18, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

interesting point

we want to see which teams keep the drive alive. For that I ranked teams according to
(3rd down attempts – 3rd down made)/ no.of scrimmage plays. ie, now of 3rd down not made/ total scrimmage plays. Basically it tells, how often teams get into the 3rd down hole and how well they get out of it.

In the rank, the top 5 are, in order: colts, saints, chargers, patriots, packers. Bills are 29th… surprising 3 other teams are worse than bills – browns, chiefs & 49ers

by statcruncher on Sep 18, 2010 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

on the defensive side

the top 5 defenses who put others in 3rd down hole & dont let them get out are:

jets, 49ers, cardinals, eagles, packers… but surprisingly bills are 15th out of 32… seems like we are average not bad at defense…

so being better at 3rd down in offense is more important now than at defense

by statcruncher on Sep 18, 2010 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Thanks. rec'd.

Did you happen to see which 5 teams had the fewest 3rd down attempts?

Blame where you must, be candid where you can, And be each critic the Good-natured Man. - Oliver Goldsmith (Excellent advice)

Go Jazz! Go Hogs! GO BILLS!

by Dyl on Sep 18, 2010 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes

here are the 5 teams with the lowest 3rd down attempts: chargers, cardinals, colts, saints, BILLS…

that’s y i looked at 3rd down/ scrimmage play. bills were so bad, they didnt even have enough scrimmage plays. so their no. of 3rd down attempts were low

by statcruncher on Sep 18, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

ahh. Got it.

Blame where you must, be candid where you can, And be each critic the Good-natured Man. - Oliver Goldsmith (Excellent advice)

Go Jazz! Go Hogs! GO BILLS!

by Dyl on Sep 18, 2010 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’d certainly help if they weren’t facing a constant 3rd & 14, that’s for sure

by Brian Galliford on Sep 19, 2010 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Converting on 3rd Down

Keeping the ball longer on offense in general is a necessity. Their defense can tire just as easily as ours can, and it’s the best shot we have at the upset. That being said, RUN THE BALL!!!

by stetzwebs on Sep 18, 2010 3:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Run The Ball

We have to have at least the “threat” of being able to pass before we can run the ball sorta speaking. I quess what I’m saying is if we don’t have balance on offense (run/pass) we won’t do anything offensively…..

Home of "Spiller the Thriller"

by buffalobacker on Sep 18, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Not really.
We have to have at least the "threat" of being able to pass before we can run the ball sorta speaking.

If they start the game stacking the box, we start the game with Play action passes and draws.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 18, 2010 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

to add.

Once you hit a draw or playaction pass for a good gainer, they will start playing us straight up.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 18, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

No need for a balanced attack, were such a power running team…

Home of "Spiller the Thriller"

by buffalobacker on Sep 19, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yep

We need Kelsay to have the game of his life covering tight ends to win.

I absolutely HATE having to watch so much Tennessee Oiler football.

by MtJulietTNBillsFan on Sep 18, 2010 3:29 PM EDT reply actions  

We need to be able to run the ball

without the ability to do this, it will be a long unproductive game.

"Hold ya chin up...nuh nuh nuh...gone" -Marshawn Lynch-

by billsoferie on Sep 18, 2010 3:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Bryan Scott

in our base “D” now? I didn’t hear that change.

I absolutely HATE having to watch so much Tennessee Oiler football.

by MtJulietTNBillsFan on Sep 18, 2010 3:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Wouldn't be surprised....

to see him shadow Finley most of the game..

The draft dawns a new year for Buffalo Bills fans, so let optimism reign supreme!!! After all, we are now, UNDEFEATED!!!!

by Cinga on Sep 18, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Scott's actually done a fine job covering tight ends for us

Blame where you must, be candid where you can, And be each critic the Good-natured Man. - Oliver Goldsmith (Excellent advice)

Go Jazz! Go Hogs! GO BILLS!

by Dyl on Sep 18, 2010 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not likely

Chris Kelsay has literally zero chance of covering Jermichael Finley effectively on any route in any game in any capacity whatsoever.

by Saint Patrick on Sep 18, 2010 4:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Run the ball

Run, run, run the ball down their throats. Marshawn up the middle. Freddie sweep left and/or right. CJ pop ‘em in between. then when they’re thinking pass let Fitzy scramble for 15 or 20. Get Trent out of this game and let us play some smash mouth football!!!

by fvaz407 on Sep 18, 2010 5:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Great

But we can’t be one dimemsional on offense, we have to show we can pass to set up run and run to set-up pass. Here’s hoping we have a balanced attack!!

Home of "Spiller the Thriller"

by buffalobacker on Sep 18, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Use the playbook the Texans used to beat Peyton last week.........

Run, run, and then run the ball.
Their defense was so gassed in the 4th QTR that my Mom (77) could’ve ran for 8 yards a carry.

"Adversity is an opportunity for heroism." Marv Levy.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Sep 18, 2010 5:08 PM EDT reply actions  

i don’t believe we’re playing the colts, though i wouldn’t mind some heavier looks as opposed to that pistol.

by dav630 on Sep 18, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

A few problems there

We don’t have the OL the Texans have, the Packers are a very stout run defense and the Colts have an awful run defense that isn’t close to what we’ll be facing….

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Sep 18, 2010 6:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

lol

Not sounding good for the Bill’s :)

Home of "Spiller the Thriller"

by buffalobacker on Sep 18, 2010 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Packers are a very stout run defense

They gave up a lot of yards on the ground last week.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 18, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

his name is michael vick ;)

by dav630 on Sep 18, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

McCoy put up 5 yards a carry, no reason our guys couldn’t achieve that with a good game plan.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 18, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly

McCoy was also running some draws too, which helped….

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Sep 18, 2010 6:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Dom Capers

He gets stale and predictable his 2nd year in a new place,

I think the Packers are gonna back peddle on D this year.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 18, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree

They have talent, actual stars (Woodson, Matthews, Barnett), are physical, have a good secondary and can get after the QB. Maybe they won’t lead the league in run D, but they’ll be close. That’s a top 5 defense.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Sep 18, 2010 6:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

We shall see!

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 18, 2010 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

And,

he was a backup whose playing status wasn’t anticipated, much less game planned for.
Most teams don’t game plan for extensive playing time by a backup.
Vick was game planned for only with regards to the wildcat. :)

-
The glass is way more than half-full.

by NorthStarr on Sep 19, 2010 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

But

Shady McCoy got 35 yards on 7 runs, and he was expected to play/

They can be run on,

Sure Hawk was inactive with Kolb getting injured inflated the totals.

But I think we can average 5 yards a carry, with CJ being our Vick.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 19, 2010 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

guess I sould add a caveat
They can be run on,

If Chan has a clue,

he sure didn’t have a clue last week.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 19, 2010 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

TWSS!

If all the stars align, pigs learn to fly, humanity achieves world peace, doctors discover a cure for cancer, scientists perfect cold fusion, and hell freezes over, the Bills might win the SB this year.

by Joe P. on Sep 19, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Is she a nurse?

Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.

by WhyBillsWhy on Sep 19, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Vick 11-103
McCoy 7-35
Maclin 1-11
Weaver 1-0

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 18, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Your Mom...

wears 77 for the Texans?

The draft dawns a new year for Buffalo Bills fans, so let optimism reign supreme!!! After all, we are now, UNDEFEATED!!!!

by Cinga on Sep 18, 2010 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

And in other news.......

water is still wet.

I know we're going to have a big challenge to do better than what we did last year, but I feel we have the team to do that. We want to win with numbing repetition. - Jim Harbaugh

by norcaliangelsfan on Sep 18, 2010 5:26 PM EDT reply actions  

also

Sun rises in the East. And sky is blue.

by LABillsFan on Sep 18, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

No... it's not....

it’s actually every color except blue… Which is why we see the blue it reflects away…

The draft dawns a new year for Buffalo Bills fans, so let optimism reign supreme!!! After all, we are now, UNDEFEATED!!!!

by Cinga on Sep 18, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Smartass. Haha.

Also, time to change your signature line, just a bit? :)

Hey. Starting week three, best of luck to you guys. :)

-
The glass is way more than half-full.

by NorthStarr on Sep 19, 2010 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

;-)

and yeah, your right, time to change my sig, except that we are still undefeated outside the AFCE!!!

The draft dawns a new year for Buffalo Bills fans, so let optimism reign supreme!!! After all, we are now, UNDEFEATED!!!!

by Cinga on Sep 19, 2010 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

time is running out on that excuse :-)

If all the stars align, pigs learn to fly, humanity achieves world peace, doctors discover a cure for cancer, scientists perfect cold fusion, and hell freezes over, the Bills might win the SB this year.

by Joe P. on Sep 19, 2010 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Better than...

betting on the interscholastic forces of the universe aligning just right to make the Swine at the UN and WHO do their job, or that scientists can ever bring an Ice Age to Miami… :-)

The draft dawns a new year for Buffalo Bills fans, so let optimism reign supreme!!! After all, we are now, UNDEFEATED!!!!

by Cinga on Sep 19, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

LOL....still think my sig has a better chance of coming true than the Bills winning at GB

If all the stars align, pigs learn to fly, humanity achieves world peace, doctors discover a cure for cancer, scientists perfect cold fusion, and hell freezes over, the Bills might win the SB this year.

by Joe P. on Sep 19, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

yep

Some things never change!

Home of "Spiller the Thriller"

by buffalobacker on Sep 18, 2010 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

There are so many things the Bills need to do

That they are unlikely to do.

Included in that laundry list is:
-3rd downs on both sides of the ball
-Score 30+ points (the Packers scored 27 on the road against a tough Philly D while their pass O struggled…YIKES!)
-win special teams, by a sizable margin
-No turnovers on O, force a few on D
-No pistol
-hit some passes downfield (unlikely, I know)
-Stop Clay Matthews with something other than a quadruple team
-No big plays to Greg Jennings
-Keep the cheeseheads quiet
-Run early, often and extremely successfully

There’s so much that has to occur for the Bills to even keep this game close, let alone win. I just hope we don’t see a 45-0 massacre.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Sep 18, 2010 5:45 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

we were historically bad on 3rd downs last year. We have the same personnel as last year. I guess its up to Gailey to try and fix it. Not a good start in week 1

"I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly"

by poz on Sep 18, 2010 5:50 PM EDT reply actions  

The way to convert third downs.

Is get some yards and first and 2nd even if it’s only 3 yards.

We had tons of 3-10 3-12 3-14, heck even 3-29.

Play action sure works better on 3-3 than 2-10

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 18, 2010 6:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Would be curious to know

how many of those situations were due, at least in part, to penalties.
Even false starts can help lead to those situations.

-
The glass is way more than half-full.

by NorthStarr on Sep 19, 2010 2:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

The 3-29 for sure was due to penalties,

But some of the others were due to bad play.

Like that crappy CJ hit in the backfield where Bell whiffed on Odrick and looked like a stiff.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 19, 2010 3:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Average Yards to Go on 3rd Down

It would be interesting to see the averages of both successful and poor performers on third downs. I am sure that the results will be common sense. If you have less yards needed then your chances of converting are higher.

I completely agree with the run, run, run approach. I also think that captain checkdown can contribute, as long as it’s a short dump on first or second down and not third and long.

The plan is obvious:

Consistently make positive plays

2 or 3 yard gains on first and second down make third a lot more manageable than 10 or more yard situations.

I'm not sure if I hate Miami as much as humanly possible, but I'd rather die than take a drop of blood coming from a 'phin.

by Storeybox on Sep 18, 2010 6:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Sorry, previous post wasn’t up when i started typing, lol

I'm not sure if I hate Miami as much as humanly possible, but I'd rather die than take a drop of blood coming from a 'phin.

by Storeybox on Sep 18, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Run to daylight!

"If you dog one of us, you dog all of us" - Chan Gailey
"Being a Bills Fan is a Tough Job for Tough People…" – Luther6

by Montel on Sep 18, 2010 6:18 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

we dont need anymore useless Bills are bad on third stats

Trent needs:
 -to stay alive (not get eaten by jaws clay mathews)
 -to throw a pass attempt further than the line of scrimmage on third and long
 -run with the ball instead of handing the ball off if a db is already next to your running back on your botched halfback draw (you guys catch that with spiller?)
Bills need to;
 -Do everything Brian said I mean what they haven’t done in 4 years… Keep our defense off the field.

by sketchydave on Sep 18, 2010 6:37 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

-run with the ball instead of handing the ball off if a db is already next to your running back on your botched halfback draw (you guys catch that with spiller?)

If you are talking about the one out of the shotgun. That was Jared Odrick.

Bell just kind of stuck his arms up and watched him run past him, pathetic.

What’s even more pathetic, is if trent was lined up under center that play, Odrick might not even have been in the backfield,

This shotgun foolishness has been going on for years. Teams just quit playing the run when we are in the gun and go for penetration and those shotgun draws almost never work since we have been doing them the past 4 years.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 18, 2010 6:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Def the play. An aware quarterback would see that and make an adjustment mid play. The recievers are still runnin routes to sell the draw, so why not be a playmaker?

That’s my biggest problem with Tentative Trent.
He’s a stiff.

by sketchydave on Sep 18, 2010 6:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

The real key

Is for Bell to actually take a kick step and punch at Odrick even a weak one and the play works like a charm. Bell doesn’t even take a kick step and just sticks his hands up and doesn’t even try to get a punch.

If Trent didn’t hand that off, he would have gotten crunched even farther back than CJ. That one is completely on Bell. Trent has his share of blame like the near pick 6s, but not on that play.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 18, 2010 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

I changed my mind.
That one is completely on Bell.

Half is from Gailey for calling a draw out of the shotgun, the other Half is Bell for just standing there like a fool and watching Odrick run by him.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 18, 2010 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

Only saw the play once live, so I’m not sure the options Trent had. Wish there was just something rather than conceding 3 plus yards. Dive up the middle to line of scrimmage? Boot right? No clue just somethin.

by sketchydave on Sep 18, 2010 7:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

You can see the play on the highlight real at NFL.com

Just go to scores, week 1, watch video for the game in the scorebox.

Trent was standing still, when he put it CJs hands, about the only option, and Odrick was in full sprint mode.

There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.

by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 18, 2010 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s awesome! I never knew I could do that

by sketchydave on Sep 18, 2010 7:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Third downs are huge no doubt....

however, someone posted a very interesting concept on here recently pointing out that being better, overall, on first down may be just as important…… stay in the 3rd & manageable and this offense (in spite of all its failings) can sustain drives to a greater degree

THAT WE GOING TO RUN OVER EVERBODY THAT STEPS IN FRONT OF THE WHAGONBLASTER - Abayarde

by Jax Bills Fan on Sep 18, 2010 8:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Bills Secondary to have big day.

Look for the Bills secondary to have a big day. To win the Bills must have a power running game utilizing all three half-backs. They must attack the middle of Green Bay’s defense relentlessly and not abandon the run even if it means going three and out a few times before making headway. If Green Bay puts 7 or 8 in the box the Bills must simply out play them and pick up yards. Trent Edwards can not be successful until the ground game is established and every team in the league knows it.

by Pietro Sirianni on Sep 19, 2010 7:20 AM EDT reply actions  

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