All along Nix has talked about stacking talent. Lynch is a talented RB by any definition of the term talented. He's proven over the past couple of games that he can be relied on to move the chains--and that 2009 was an abberration and not the start of an immediate decline. Moving Lynch now would fly in the face of 'stacking talent'. Buffalo would lack a bruising back to complement Jackson's well roundedness and Spiller's flashiness. Instead, the Bills would have a draft pick--possibly one in the third round or later--or a situationl player.
'Stacking talent' is a mindset, or at least that's how I took it when Nix was speaking in the summer months. There's a strong rationale for it (even if people like me do love indulging in trade specualtion scenarios) which Nix spoke to. Moving Lynch now would be akin to the Edwards situation--a rash decision made after what can only be described as a deeply flawed evaluation process. (How else to explain benching the starting QB for doing what we all expected that QB to do after 2 games and cutting him after 3?) It wouldn't speak well of Nix's strategic long term vision for turning Buffalo into a good football team.
If the Bills allow Lynch to shuffle out of Buffalo (groan), Nix had better get a building block in return. To me that speaks more to a complete player than a mid to late round draft pick. Of course, teams aren't willing to give up complete players because they're not that easy to find. While the draft is an inexact science, a high draft pick would give Buffalo a better chance of getting a building block for Lynch.
With that in mind, I've laid out some options below.
The target I have in mind is Green Bay. The team needs immediate help at RB and has a legitimate shot to win it all in 2010. The Packers don't have a lot of holes to worry about come April. If memory serves, the Packers were a team reputed to have been interested in Lynch and possibly willing to give up a 3rd rounder. Given that the Packers are likely to be one of the final four teams their 3rd rounder will be worth something like 120ish on the draft value chart. Buffalo's is certain to pick in the top 10 and likely the top 5. For the sake of this mental exercise I'm going to assume that Buffalo picks 3rd overall while the Packers pick 30th. The different between 30th and 35th is about 70 points. Buffalo and Green Bay could agree on a deal based on the final draft position for each team--and an additional 2012 pick to iron out the differences. For example if the Packers flamed out and wound up picking 20th the Bills would owe Green Bay something like a 4th rounder (possibly more) in 2012. On the other side of the coin, if Buffalo ended up with the first overall pick and the Packers won the Super Bowl Green Bay would owe Buffalo a 2012 3rd rounder. In any case, Buffalo would enter the 2011 draft with a pair of first rounders--one early in the round (1st-5th) and one later (almost certainly later than 25th). In 2009 the Bills picked up Eric Wood 28th, ironically more of a building block than Aaron Maybin who was taken 11th. Better use of the high first rounder (QB? LT?) and at least equal use of the late first rounder (LB? LT?) could help lay the foundation for a much stronger team.