Thoughts on Jauronian Era Drafts
by Ron From NM on Sep 5, 2010 10:15 PM EDT
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PrintKurupt reminded us that Brian wanted the Bills to select the recently released TE Martin Rucker at #11 in 2008. (Kurupt didn't mention that both he and Brian seemed to think highly of Gholston, so hindsight is clearly better than foresight.) The mock draft that Brian had posted early in 2008 got me thinking about that actual draft class. That, in turn, got me wondering about the 4 drafts of the Jauron era.
Yeah, it's too early to call a player a bust after just a season or two. However, any player selected who couldn't crack Buffalo's roster--or stick after initally making it--represents a wasted pick. I'm not trying to argue the merits of any particular player at this point, merely listing who remains from those drafts.
Survivors: Donte Whitner, John McCargo, Ashton Youboty, Kyle Williams, Keith Ellison, Marshawn Lynch, Paul Posluszny, Trent Edwards, Leodis McKelvin, Chris Ellis, Reggie Corner, Demetrius Bell, Steve Johnson, Aaron Maybin, Eric Wood, Andy Levitre, Jairus Byrd, Shawn Nelson, Cary Harris
Roadkill: Ko Simpson, Brad Butler, Terrence Pennington, Aaron Merz, Dwayne Wright, John Wendling, Derek Schouman, CJ Ah You, James Hardy, Derek Fine, Alvin Bowen, Xavier Omon, Kennard Cox, Nic Harris, Ellis Lankster
(Buffalo tried to get rid of McCargo via trade to Indy and Butler's departure couldn't have been reasonably foreseen.)
It wasn't as grim as I had originally thought. 19 players taken in the Jauronian Era made the cut in 2010 while 14 have fallen by the wayside. Most of those 14 were selected in the later rounds of the draft. James Hardy represents the single biggest miss of the Jauronian Era. the jury, of course, is still out on many players: Edwards won't be back in 2011 unless he has a good 2010. McCargo may be in the same boat. Meanwhile, Harris, Bell, Youboty and Nelson aren't exactly locks for 2011. Even if all of those guys got the old Spanish Archer 13 of Jauron's picks would have survived--roughly 3 per each draft class. I'm guessing that's probably something close to the NFL average.
No, it doesn't redeem the stink of failure from the four years that we endured Jauron's facial tick filled press conferences. It seems, however, that Jauron was able to pick players who at least had the ability to stick on Buffalo's roster even after his tenure was over.
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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They were able to find some solid talent..........however I feel as if they would have drafted like they did in 2009 (minus Maybin) for their other drafts.........
They would have still been around………..just my two cents though.
"I understand that's the way it is, You're just going to have to take that with a grain of salt and realize there's going to be people out there that aren't going to like the way you play and where you're from." - Trent Edwards
by norcaliangelsfan on Sep 5, 2010 10:18 PM EDT reply actions
Gholston
He could still amount to something. He should never have been playing OLB, though.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
So could Schmitt.
LOL
"I understand that's the way it is, You're just going to have to take that with a grain of salt and realize there's going to be people out there that aren't going to like the way you play and where you're from." - Trent Edwards
by norcaliangelsfan on Sep 5, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
your not that easy on Maybin, K :)
"I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly"
by poz on Sep 6, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't get me started on him!!!
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
He's a young 22...........needs time to develop.
He had double digit sacks when he played at Penn St!!!!!!!
"I understand that's the way it is, You're just going to have to take that with a grain of salt and realize there's going to be people out there that aren't going to like the way you play and where you're from." - Trent Edwards
by norcaliangelsfan on Sep 6, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't poke the bear........
He doesn’t bark or growl, he bites!
:-)
"Adversity is an opportunity for heroism." Marv Levy.
by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Sep 6, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I think K and I are on the same page.......
I just felt like being a feces-stirrer…………just bored waiting for BSU v VT to start.
"I understand that's the way it is, You're just going to have to take that with a grain of salt and realize there's going to be people out there that aren't going to like the way you play and where you're from." - Trent Edwards
by norcaliangelsfan on Sep 6, 2010 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
The Redskins cut or got rid of
4 of their 6 picks from this year’s draft conducted by Shanahan and Bruce Allen. That is in addition to chucking just about everyone from the previous Vinny Cerrato draft.
Drafting is not an exact science and I have to say that I am impressed with the serviceable list of players from the Jauron era. First round busts are what do you in. whiffing on McCargo was huge. But I actually go back to Mike Williams and JP. It is hard to recover from a first round QB bust.
Yeah that draft was horrible. Losman was a HUGE reach as a first round QB. I think if people were to take Losman from his draft year, put him next to Claussen from this year’s class & ask which would you take first, most would choose Claussen. And yet look how far he slid. I agree failing like that can be a huge setback and the Bills are still recovering from that pick. That’s why Nix played it safe this year & took a flyer on Brown in the 7th. If he would’ve panned out, fine, if not, no big deal.
by billskk69 on Sep 6, 2010 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
Mike Williams was supposed to anchor this line for a decade, and instead he is not even in the NFL (last I checked). Epic fail
Fear the Grier!!!!
Juaron
Failed to be competive in 4 year stint. His drafts were like his record, mediocre. Next…..
Home of "Spiller the Thriller"
It's more about
the lack of one star coming out of the draft during the jauron years than anything else
"the BUFFALO BILLS ARE COMING TO TOWN and I dont mean like Santa clause. WE will not Surrender this is were you all FALL The WHAGON BLASTER IS TAKING OFF AND YOU PUNKS are in our way, This wagon has no BREAKS so get ready for the ride of the life time"-abayarde
by HardBeingABillsFan on Sep 6, 2010 12:51 AM EDT reply actions
Exactly
The cliche is you build through the draft and I see the logic in it, but if you’re going to do so, you can’t have mediocre to slightly above average players being your high water mark. A team full of Donte Whitner types is insufficient.
"There's only one C.J. Spiller." -Buddy Nix
by Port Royal on Sep 6, 2010 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
They sucked.
Now lets pretend that they never happened and move on to the Buddy Nix era, shall we?
Starcraft II: the ultimate sleep depraver.
by CanadianBillsFan on Sep 6, 2010 1:11 AM EDT reply actions
Ah, but the CHIX Era has been set up by the picks of the Jauronian Era. CHIX did have a core of decent players to work with. As HardBeingABillsFan notes, Jauron didn’t leave CHIX a single star quality draftee. (Offensive linemen aren’t generally seen as stars.)
It can always get worse. Let me tell you how.
Injuries play a role, too.
You pointed out Butler’s, but Fine, Hardy and Simpson also had season-ending injuries, just to mention three. Wendling and Simpson got picked up by the Lions, and were still playing as recently as last week. Are any of the others still in the league?
There was, and is, talent here. There weren’t any Joe Montanas or Bret Favres, but how often do those kind of guys come along?
I’m still not sure just what the final consensus on Jauron’s performance should be. It seems he clearly was in a role he wasn’t suited for. Was the job just beyond his ability, or was it the dysfunction of working with Ralph and the Front Office he had assembled before Jauron even got here, or bad karma, or some combination of the three?
There are insiders who know the answer, but I doubt we’ll ever hear what the consensus around the league is. I’m glad Jauron is still coaching in the league.
by Defensewinsgames on Sep 6, 2010 7:07 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I’m still not sure just what the final consensus on Jauron’s performance should be. It seems he clearly was in a role he wasn’t suited for. Was the job just beyond his ability, or was it the dysfunction of working with Ralph and the Front Office he had assembled before Jauron even got here
I’d say both of these things, actually. Jauron is a good coordinator or assistant coach. Head coach? Not so much. I’m thinking & hoping the FO is now in much better shape now than it was in years past. I’ll leave the karma thing alone.
Schouman looked good last year before his knee injury, and I assume would have made the team this year without the second injury. Bowen got hurt in training camp (or was it OTAs?) before his rookie year, and never really had a chance. He was with somebody (Jacksonville, maybe?) this year but got cut.
Didn’t Nic Harris get hurt too? I know he was in the Panthers camp this year, don’t know if he got cut.
Ah You did play for the Rams for a while. I think Pennington was with Atlanta for a while, and Cox played for somebody (Jags, maybe?). The Steelers picked up Wright this year, but they cut him.
Kevin Everett
though drafted by a previous regime, had his injury in the Jauronian era, which set the team back.
Kevin Everett was a non-entity on the roster and had shown no signs of improving.
It can always get worse. Let me tell you how.
yeah people forget that injury came on a kickoff, not some 95 yard touchdown catch.
CJ Spiller: CJ stands for Chris Johnson.
by JPH on Sep 6, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
nfl averages
would be interesting to know what the survival rates are for top 3 round picks.
these would be the “top 100” players coming out of college each year.
there are roughly 1600 players on nfl rosters, with another few hundred on
injured reserve and practice squads.
that makes less than 2000 in the league each yr.
assuming a 5 year career for “average” players, with injuries/war and tear always a factor
in keeping even “excellent” players from more than 10 yrs in the league…..
we are left with the fact that turnover has to be 20 percent per year per roster, which is
about what the bills did this year….
so if there are 7 rounds of draft picks, and undrafted free agents, not surprising that,
with a win now or else mentality, and only 53 spots on the roster available, lots of
draft picks cannot make it through their first or second season….
what should be obvious from this year’s draft however, is the bills really did go for
gamers, not “raw talent” guys…..
then there is Thriller the Spiller, called Superstar, who combines freakish talent with
“gamer” skills off the charts…
that was a Great Pick, as i said at the time…..
since there are so few guarantees in the draft, why mess with “prospects.”
for the record, i am thrilled the bills now have three decent QBs on the roster.
I truly believe with a half way decent offensive line anyone of those three could
win games for the bills….
with a good offensive line, and spiller and evans and freddy jackson, this offense
could be really really productive….
two first round picks and a free agent marv levy pickup, freddy, combine with another
marv levy pickup (trent) may yet turn this offense around.
for the record, i am thrilled the bills now have three decent QBs on the roster.
I truly believe with a half way decent offensive line anyone of those three could
win games for the bills….
and
with a good offensive line, and spiller and evans and freddy jackson, this offense
could be really really productive….
I’m not expecting great things from Buffalo’s offensive line. Levitre and Wood appear to be the real deal and Wood will hopefully return to pre-injury form. Hang is pretty much an average center—an enormous upgrade over Fowler/Preston but clearly not among the best in the league. Bell was improving weekly when he was lost for the season so it will be interesting to see if he picks up where he left off or starts out at the bottom rung again. Green, um….well, it wouldn’t surprise me if Green was supplanted by Meredith sooner rather than later.
Edwards can do a reasonable job at QB if he’s not shell shocked. He took some shots in the preseason, when opposing defenses aren’t using all of their blitz packages. When teams are going all out to win my guess is that the line will struggle mightily to protect Edwards on anything more than a 3 step drop.
It can always get worse. Let me tell you how.
Wood and Levitre
I thought both Wood and (particularly) Levitre were very impressive in the preseason. I’m more optimistic about them than any facet of the team not named Spiller.
"There's only one C.J. Spiller." -Buddy Nix
When teams are going all out to win my guess is that the line will struggle mightily to protect Edwards on anything more than a 3 step drop.
With good playcalling, you can really slow down a blitz.
That was one thing that frustrated me so badly with the last regime, it was just so predictable, there were times the D just wouldn’t even play the run, and we wouldn’t call a simple draw to keep them honest all game when they were doing it,
There's not a wide receiver who is fast enough, that J.P. Losman can't overthrow him on a fly pattern.
by The Buffalo Kid on Sep 6, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Jauronian Era
Sounds like something from Star Trek.
On a more serious note, you are probably right about being close to the NFL average. But they can’t them ALL, right? We still need to field a 53 man roster. But I think I’d get little argument when I say that we can certainly do better than the 53 we got right now. Evidence of that is the fact that we are picking up other team’s cuts as we speak.
At positions we need...
and positions the other teams were deep in… Think if we cut a couple safeties, CBs, or RBs other teams wouldn’t pounce on them???
The draft dawns a new year for Buffalo Bills fans, so let optimism reign supreme!!! After all, we are now, UNDEFEATED!!!!
Blue-chippers, red-chippers, and purple-chippers
Jauron’s drafts really weren’t bad in terms of finding NFL capable players. As of now, over 60% of the drafted players are on the Bills roster. That’s a ridiculously high rate. Even if the number drops to 13, that’s still 40%. Considering the league average is around 30% (I averaged this last year) over five years, I’d say that Tom Modrak and the scouting staff did a heck of a job providing options of who to pick, and Jauron made some good picks.
The issues is in quality. None of the Jauron-era players developed into blue-chip players (yet).
Blue-chip player: player who must be accounted for on every play. Plays well enough to make the Pro Bowl yearly. Capable of beating his man every play and making a big play every play.
Red-chip player: player who is a more-than-capable starter but has an incomplete game in one or two aspects. Plays well enough to make an impact on the game in some way.
Purple-chip player: player who is a capable starter but not an impact player. Will get the job done without much of an impact and few, if any big-plays.
Buffalo is full of red- and purple-chip players. I’d argue they have more red- and purple-chip players than most teams in the league, mostly due to hitting on them with high picks when they should have been drafting blue-chippers.
The jury is still out on McKelvin, Maybin, Wood, Byrd, and Spiller, who could all become blue-chippers. It only takes 2-3 blue-chipper surrounded by a solid supporting cast to win. Indy only has three: Manning, Freeney, and Wayne. And really, the Saints only have one: Drew Brees.
The big part for winning teams is that one of your blue-chippers has to be the QB: Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Romo, Favre, Rivers, Roethlisberger…. Except for the Steelers, all those teams went to the playoffs.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft Owen Marecic in 2011" campaign.
You make a good point about Buffalo having, essentially, better depth than most NFL teams. Whitner, McCargo, Lynch, Poz, McKelvin, Hardy, Maybin, Byrd, Wood and Levitre—10 1st and 2nd round picks, 10 chances for true game changers. Jauron built a nice core but did it rather expensively in terms of draft picks.
Perhaps that’s why CHIX went with a guy they hope to be an instant impact game changer in the first pick of their era. (A QB, if CHIX thought any of them were sure things, would have taken at least a year before he began to pay dividends.) Maybe CHIX hopes that teams will focus on Spiller, drawing attention away from Evans and slowing down the pass rush. It seems like something of a long shot…
It can always get worse. Let me tell you how.
I think the main reason the Bills did not take a QB in 2010 was that Nix did not like any of the ones who were available. It was as simple as that. They also figured they could find a good (though not necessarily a great) one among Edwards, Fitz and Brohm. Spiller did looks like a blue-chip prospect to them, as Jaeger says, and we needed a blue-chip guy on offense, so they went with him.
to paraphrase...
Nix did not like any of the [QBs] who were available
Perhaps CHIX just didn’t feel that there were any blue-chip quarterbacks available in the 2010 draft and that they already had a red-chip QB on the roster? If so, it would follow that they would take the whoever they thought was a blue-chip with their first pick (which just happened to be a RB).
"If you can’t fly then run, if you can’t run then walk, if you can’t walk then crawl, but whatever you do you have to keep moving forward." – Martin Luther King Jr.
Agree
Even if Spiller is the only guy on that list to become a blue-chipper, it changes everything for the offense, as we’ve seen so far in the pre-season.
Now, if we get that blue-chip QB, watch out.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft Owen Marecic in 2011" campaign.
Potato-chip player:
Mike Williams
"If you can’t fly then run, if you can’t run then walk, if you can’t walk then crawl, but whatever you do you have to keep moving forward." – Martin Luther King Jr.
by Bogeyman on Sep 6, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The biggest issue with
the Jauron draft era is no emergence of high end talent. I’m talking about cornerstone players. Obviously they don’t all have to come in the first round. This team is void of the type of player that is so good individually he makes everyone else better. I hope Spiller changes that, in my opinion he’s the only one that has the talent to do it.
Ive always argued that Jaurons Bills were better drafters than they got credit for. If you look at the Bills vs the Patriots, we are far better drafters. The only thing we havent drafted well is QBs and that is everything. They got lucky, or scouted exceptionally well, depending on your perspective, with Tom Brady.
James Hardy represents the single biggest miss of the Jauronian Era
Until he actually does something outside of the preseason, McCargo is still the biggest miss. We gave up picks to move up, in Jaurons first draft, and have gotten nothing in return.
"I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly"
Gotta disagree
Frankly, the percentage of Jauron era draftees still employed by the team doesn’t measure drafting efficiency. If anything, it simply illustrates how poor Buffalo’s overall roster has been in that so many rookies and young vets have no problem holding onto their roster spots. The true measuring stick is that this team has no players in the top 100 league-wide. As a whole, the impact picks from 06-08 of Whitner, McCargo, Lynch, Posluszny, McKelvin, Hardy as are very underwhelming (and I’m being kind only because Poz finally showed something late last year and the jury is still out on McKelvin, although time is running out). This team has not been even close to talented enough and it starts with the draft picks who stuck around and played for the most part, but never distinguished themselves. The 09 class has some hope, but overall Jauron era drafting was the root of a fairly punchless period in franchise history.
I do agree that New England’s draft classes have been very underwhelming for several seasons now and that’s about to catch up with them this season. People still defer to Belichick on draft day, but really they’re deferring to his work 7 or 8 years ago. His free pass is comical in my eyes.
"There's only one C.J. Spiller." -Buddy Nix
by Port Royal on Sep 6, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Frankly, the percentage of Jauron era draftees still employed by the team doesn’t measure drafting efficiency. If anything, it simply illustrates how poor Buffalo’s overall roster has been in that so many rookies and young vets have no problem holding onto their roster spots.
Port Royal, extremely well said. This whole comment should be rec’d multiple times.
2010 Bills' truth in advertising: "Look out Cleveland, this year we score 6!" - bluecollarbuffalo
his drafting was terrible
more about what he passed up on than what he got. look at the star players he wound up leaving on the board for guys like whitner mccargo lynch maybin mckelvin. thusfar not ONE of those players has proven to even be a possible probowler (except maybe marshawns one good season?). when a long string of first round picks are adequate players at best then its just terrible drafting
I think we'll look back
and rate the selection of James Hardy up there with Mike Williams. He was in trouble from the start, right down to off-field issues around that gun issue with his father. I don’t get what the team saw in him because it’s hard for me to envision a player becoming something so opposite of his 2nd-round draft grade. Sure, many WRs don’t pan out, but this kid never even took to the oil and salt curing. If he’s in the league 2 more years, i’ll be shocked. It’s not the team’s fault he didn’t pan out. It’s his fault. It’s their “fault” for getting googlie-eyed over him, however.
"Give back some of that money you ain't [expletive] earned!" - Eric Wood
Song recommendation of the week: Cracker - "Euro-Trash Girl"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Sep 7, 2010 10:43 AM EDT reply actions
No wonder this team is terrible!
Even the survivors look like roadkill – You could pull names out of a hat and do better than the front office of the Bills for the past 5 years. Meanwhile, over at Colts Drive, Bill Polian is competing for a Super Bowl – Once again!!!!!
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