BIG FAT LINEMEN! Continued...

by J2 on Jan 28, 2011 11:09 AM EST

A couple of days ago I wrote a dumb little piece called "BIG FAT LINEMEN!". I call it dumb because it was general and anything general on Buffalo Rumblings might as well be a sin. If you don't have stats to break it down to the littlest detail then you're dumb. And obviously i'm dumb - so I decided to act on my dumbness and see how my breakdowns faired when looking at when guys were drafted on the defensive line. If you recall I was focusing on rushing defensive teams in the Conference Championship teams and how they faired against the run. I found that they A) were excellent against the run or B) had a phenomenal QB at the helm (or both)

Then a few of my counterparts said things like there are guys after the 1st round and guys can be found in later rounds. Which, first of all, duh! Sorry but you can find elite players in all rounds - I didn't think that needed to be said but obviously when you omit even obviousness you get blasted for it. So here's another futile attempt to try and persuade people on why defensive linemen are so important and why they are taken early.

100% yes, obviously, couldn't agree more - you can find elite talent in any round for any position including defensive linemen - what I'm saying is that your percentages of success increase greatly when you take a guy in the 1st round.

Here's some digging that you guys can rip apart.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/lineups.htm

Most of the depth charts come from PFR - then click on team - some from Wiki

2010

Steelers(3) - Ziggy Hood - 1st, Casey Hampton - 1st, Brett Keisel -7th. Ranked 1st against the run
Jets(3) - Sione Pouha - 3rd, Mike DeVito - undrafted , Shaun Ellis - 1st. Ranked 3rd against the run

Bears(4) - Tommie Harris - 1st, Anthony Adams - 2nd, Julius Peppers - 1st, Israel Idonije - 2nd. Ranked 2nd against the run
Packers(3) - Cullen Jenkins - undrafted, B.J. Raji - 1st, Ryan Pickett - 1st. Ranked 18th against the run (Rodgers)

2009

NYJ(3) - Sione Pouha - 3rd, Mike DeVito - undrafted , Shaun Ellis - 1st. Ranked 8th against the run
Colts(4) - Mathis - 5th, Freeney - 1st, Antonio Johnson 5th, Daniel Muir - undrafted. Ranked 24th against the run (Manning)

Vikings(4) - Jared Allen - 4th, Pat Williams - Undrafted, Kevin Williams - 1st, Ray Edwards - 4th. Ranked 2nd against the run
Saints(4) - Sedrick Ellis - 1st, Will Smith - 1st, Remi Ayodele - Undrafted, Charles Grant - 1st. Ranked 21st against the run (Brees)

2008

Ravens(3) - Ngata - 1st, Trevor Price - 1st, Justin Bannan - 5th. Ranked 3rd against the run
Steelers (3)- Keisel - 7th, Casey Hampton - 1st, Aaron Smith - 4th. Ranked 2nd against the run

Eagles(4) - Mike Patterson - 1st, Trent Cole - 5th, Broderick Bunkley - 1st, Juqua Parker - undrafted. Ranked 4th against the run
Cardinals(4) - Darnell Dockett - 3rd, Bryan Robinson - undrafted, Travis LaBoy - 2nd, Antonio Smith - 5th. Ranked 16th against the run (Warner)

2007

Chargers(3) - Igor Olshansky - 2nd, Jamal Williams - 2nd, Luis Castillo - 1st. Ranked 16th agianst the run (Rivers)
Patriots(3) - Ty Warren - 1st, Vince Wilfork - 1st, Jarvis Green - 4th. Ranked 10th agianst the run (Brady)

Green Bay(4) - Aaron Kampman - 5th, Ryan Pickett - 1st, Corey Williams 6th, Cullen Jenkins - undrafted. Ranked 8th against the run
Giants(4) - Michael Strahan - 2nd, Barry Cofield - 4th, Fred Robbins 2nd, Osi Umenyiora - 2nd. Ranked 8th against the run

O.k. - well that was tedious - so here's a little break down.

There are 56 players listed here and here is the break down of the rounds of those guys drafted:

1st - 22

2nd - 8

3rd - 3

4th - 5

5th - 6

6th - 1

7th - 2

undrafted - 9

I could do percentages but is there really a need? The numbers to me are pretty straight forward - great rush defensive teams are often successful and have a load of 1st round defensive linemen drafted on their teams. Is this a coincidence? Me thinks not!

So while a Peterson or Green would be great - I consider that theory to be building from the outside in. I want the Bills to draft from the inside out because that's how really good teams do it.

If Gabbert etc... are not # 3 worthy and a Dareus, Fairley are on the board and we pass to select a CB or WR then you will know where I stand.

Get me some BIG FAT LINEMEN!!!

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Comments

Couldn’t you do the same evaluation on every position in the NFL? I think you would find that the percentage of the best WR in the NFL were early round picks. Same thing with corners. And offensive linemen. Runningbacks? Sure.

The best talent goes in the early rounds. Nobody is arguing that. I think that’s the whole point of the draft.

by Slick Shifty on Jan 28, 2011 11:20 AM EST reply actions

forgot the stats:

Marcus Stroud: 1st round pick
Dwan Edwards: 2nd round pick
Kyle Williams: 5th round pick

by Slick Shifty on Jan 28, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions

Troup: 2nd

Carrington: 3rd

"The Buffalo Bills have just exploded all over the Cincinnati Bangles"
-Steve Tasker-

by billsoferie on Jan 28, 2011 11:34 AM EST up reply actions

I’d argue against Marcus Stroud because he’s playing out of position. Not to mention that he could easily retire because he’s old.

How is our rush defense? how many 1st round picks do we have? (sure Stroud – but logic dictates that doesn’t really add to the discussion per my statement above.

Draft Linemen

by J2 on Jan 28, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

Mcargo!

"The Buffalo Bills have just exploded all over the Cincinnati Bangles"
-Steve Tasker-

by billsoferie on Jan 28, 2011 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

and Maybin!

I really hope that was just sarcasm – because you should understand the point of this post. Obviously having a front office that actually recognizes 1st round talent is more important :-)

Draft Linemen

by J2 on Jan 28, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions

ha

yes that was sarcastic, and i too shreek at the last decade of 1st round picks. Hopfully the BPA approach will have some better outcomes. Spiller is still up in the air.

"The Buffalo Bills have just exploded all over the Cincinnati Bangles"
-Steve Tasker-

by billsoferie on Jan 28, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

McBusto and Maybe are NOT fat boys.

"Adversity is an opportunity for heroism." Marv Levy.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Jan 28, 2011 6:19 PM EST up reply actions

Couldn’t you do the same evaluation on every position in the NFL? I think you would find that the percentage of the best WR in the NFL were early round picks.

I think you missed the point.

Successful franchises – as in Conference Championship teams have 2 very common traits – they have either excellent rush defense or great QB play. Excellent rush defenses are typically littered (not always, but mostly) with 1st round talent. Excellent QBs are typically 1st round talents (not always, but mostly).

So it seems to me that if you draft defensive linemen or QBs in the 1st round then your chances of success increase.

Draft Linemen

by J2 on Jan 28, 2011 11:37 AM EST up reply actions

Interesting!!!

I always enjoy when someone does some research into their points. Two corrections to point out are you have Brett Kiesel listed as a 1st rounder in 2010 (you have him correctly listed as a 7th rounder in 2008) and you have Jarvis Green as a 1st round pick when he was actually a 4th round pick.

by Towski82 on Jan 28, 2011 12:05 PM EST reply actions

thanks – fixed

Draft Linemen

by J2 on Jan 28, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions

big,big men....

I started writing a post were I devised an entire off-season plan that would allow us to compete in our division this fall. Unfortunately, the first and foremost part of my plan was signing haloti ngata, if not him, then vince woolfork. They are both free agents, but I have learned that both teams will use the franchise tag if they cannot sign their guy. I feel so strongly that we need this type of player (and it’s so frustrating that we don’t have one) that I could not develope a plan without them.
Anyway, I get a kick out of posters who feel we don’t need a tackle. I miss big ’ol teddy washington so much… what a player!

GO BILLS!

by podunkowego on Jan 28, 2011 12:28 PM EST reply actions

kyle williams kinda stops us from useing a huge Nose Tackle.

Frenobillsfan

by cencalclassics on Jan 29, 2011 9:23 PM EST up reply actions

I concur....

we must start drafting from inside out but I’m don’t trust the front office to do this with the strategy of picking BPA as they claim to use

Rrrawrrrr, rrrawrrr like a dungeon dragon-Busta Ryhmes
This just hurts. I'm sorry Rumblers but I'm crushed

by Moe_frm_B_ on Jan 28, 2011 12:46 PM EST reply actions

Incomplete Data

To really weigh the option of whether or not you want to pick a dlinemen over everyother position simply based on the fact that hes a dlinemen you have to factor in the amount of first round busts to sucess’. Simply put( I haven’t done the research yet but I will make it into a fanpost) if there is a McCargo to every Wilfork then your conclusion will be proved wrong because now you could draft a failure at 3, where you could have had a lockdown corner or stud wr for the next 6-7 years. Really it comes down to player evaluation, if they think he is a for sure, cant miss guy then go for it. However Peterson and Green are both in the arguement for best player in the draft and number 1 overall pick. Its really hard to pass up on that kind of talent just because theres a dlinemen option thats prolly 5-6 spotsdown there bigboard. IMO Phil Taylor is just as good of a prospect for our schemes as Dareus and hes a second round talent.

by ATF on Jan 28, 2011 12:53 PM EST reply actions

I thought about that – but to be honest it really doesn’t matter about the busts.

Statistically you have a better chance at getting a franchise QB in the 1st round
Statistically you have a better chance at getting great defensive linemen in the 1st round

It’s not really incomplete data because the overwhelming majority of defensive linemen who contribute to successful rushing defenses are 1st round draft picks. If you did an analysis on the bust factor then you’d have to do that for every round and go with the number of busts in every round. I’d almost guarantee that if you were to do that analysis that there would be far more “busts” in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th rounds than defensive linemen that have contributed to excellent rushing defenses in those rounds

Draft Linemen

by J2 on Jan 28, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

Statistcally you have a better chance of getting a bust qb than a superstar in the first rd also

by ATF on Jan 28, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

so that should stop you from drafting a potential franchise QB? I don’t follow….?

Draft Linemen

by J2 on Jan 28, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

No but if going to take one that would be considered as jumping up the board and taking him, a la Tim tebow then you better be reall really sure. As I am saying with Dareus he might be a great player and show at the combine and his pro day that he is a freak and warrants the pick. But until OBD is completely sold we shouldnt just take him because of the position he plays.

by ATF on Jan 28, 2011 2:29 PM EST up reply actions

As I am saying with Dareus he might be a great player and show at the combine and his pro day that he is a freak and warrants the pick

ya – I could care less about the combine and pro day. I like to rely on what he’s done on the field – and that’s impressive.

Draft Linemen

by J2 on Jan 28, 2011 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

One point I’d like to make is that our first pick in the 2nd round is basically a late first. Especially when considering the depth of this draft with a record 50+ underclassmen declaring. So IMO, a very talented 1st round type DE can be had in the 2nd round, enabling us to take BPA at #3 in the first.

This wouldn’t minimize the importance of the position, nor the importance of your theory of 1st round talent needed along the D line trench (which I agree with) if the Bills take DE with their 2nd pick.

Think JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Christian Ballard or Aldon Smith. How do you think they stack up with Dareus?

by DJ O on Jan 28, 2011 11:12 PM EST up reply actions

I get that line of thinking – don’t get me wrong – but I just fail to see how a WR, CB etc… help this team out when you’re picking that early. I think you can get much more out of a linemen as far as your team goes

Draft Linemen

by J2 on Jan 29, 2011 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

What position, statistically, do you have a better chance at getting the best outside the first round?

by Cholas on Jan 28, 2011 3:07 PM EST up reply actions

Idk off the top of my head

But im gonna to say safety and TE simply because those are two positions that usually dont get drafted in the first round. Following that G and RT simply for the same reasons.

by ATF on Jan 28, 2011 3:10 PM EST up reply actions

Well I can’t argue that the amount of busts to success’ will increase, exponentially most likely, the higher the draft round they were picked in. You missed my point. I’m saying that to choose an issue of need over BPA you must calculate in the chance of a bust. The other two players I mentioned are unamiously concerned better players at there positions, so to skip over them and take a player lower on our big board you better have calculated the chance of a bust if your going strictly by the numbers of where people were drafted. Would you rather have an average to slightly above average DL or a top 5 WR or CB. Not thats theres any guarantee either will be that but something to factor in.

by ATF on Jan 28, 2011 2:17 PM EST reply actions

I’m saying that to choose an issue of need over BPA you must calculate in the chance of a bust.

i’m not sure I agree with that statement at all because players of all positions bust in every round – is there one position that has a higher bust rate? well if you want to do the dirty work on that go ahead.

Would you rather have an average to slightly above average DL or a top 5 WR or CB. Not thats theres any guarantee either will be that but something to factor in.

well duh man!

if there is a WR graded as worth of 3 and the next DL taken is worthy of a 2nd round grade then you’re not going to take him.

come on

Draft Linemen

by J2 on Jan 28, 2011 2:29 PM EST up reply actions

Listen Im saying if your going to take the number six prospect, second player at his postion taken already. Then you better be sure he is better than the 2nd and 3rd prospect, best at there position then you have better be sure thats all. I already said I would crunch the numbers about which position busts most frequently and already am. Also dareus didnt show any overall improvement from last year to this. That is not what I want from the number 3 pick. He is also universally considered a better pass rusher than run stuffer. Im just saying he has question marks and thats not what I want from a top 3 pick. Ill go with the stud who got better every year and shows potential to still get better in the future. Apparently we have fundamental differences about drafting.

by ATF on Jan 28, 2011 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

I understand what you’re saying – but I fully believe at 3 we can get a phenomenal defensive linemen.

Ill go with the stud who got better every year and shows potential to still get better in the future.

I understand that – but how good is a stud WR if there is no line to give the QB any time? Or if there isn’t an adequate QB? (ask Larry Fitzgerald).

What good is a lock down CB if the defensive line cannot stop the run so teams don’t throw? What good is a lock down CB if you cannot get pressure on the QB and the QB has 5+ seconds?

everything starts with the lines and QBs – that’s basically my thought process and the way I want my team to build

Draft Linemen

by J2 on Jan 28, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

What?

“He is also universally considered a better pass rusher than run stuffer”

That is completely incorrect. I’m not sure whether you are confusing Dareus with Fairley or not but it seems to me that you are. Fairley shoots gap and is a vastly better pass rusher than run defender. Dareus, on the flip side is MUCH better at locking down his area of responsibility against the run. Personally, I hope he is the #3 pick specifically for that reason.

May God have mercy upon the opponents of the Buffalo Bills because WE WILL NOT!!!

by TexasBillsFanatic on Jan 28, 2011 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/insider/news/story?id=6035408&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnfl%2fdraft2011%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d6035408

Mel Kiper Jr. has him fifth, scouts inc. have him seventh and they both say hes a better pass rusher than run stopper. Just going with straight facts about his production. J2 I like your theory but Im saying there will be a Dareus every year in the draft. AJ Green and Patrick Peterson are considered to elite talent that doesnt come around every year. You just can’t pass on that. We can take Phil taylor in the second have him and troupe rotate at NT and move williams to DE. That way we have an elite player on offense/defense a big nosetackle with upside and williams on the end to help with the rush. I think he’s better than dareus. Then someone like Sheppard in the third to help against the run also. Im just saying from a franchise stand point you have to take the elite talent.

by ATF on Jan 28, 2011 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

Im saying there will be a Dareus every year in the draft. AJ Green and Patrick Peterson are considered to elite talent that doesnt come around every year

there are no guaranteed prospects – absolutely zero.

I’d actually argue that the bust factor for CB and WRs are higher because I read that some where but I could not find it so I cannot back that statement up.

I understand where your coming from – believe me I do – but when I see draft picks like Roscoe Parrish, Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch, Donte Whitner, Willis McGahee, CJ Spiller etc… and I see that same team fail to make the playoffs for 10 consecutive years then that’s what I call the “proof in the pudding”

Draft Linemen

by J2 on Jan 28, 2011 5:57 PM EST up reply actions

draft grades....

do they give each player a number grade? and if so, are they close
(dareus and peterson) or far apart?

by podunkowego on Jan 28, 2011 7:53 PM EST up reply actions

Bring on the Fatties!!!!!!! Stack 'em player on player like a Wendy's "Baconator"

And let’s steal Chad Greenway from the Vikings in free agency.
That dude is a monster at linebacker.

"Adversity is an opportunity for heroism." Marv Levy.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Jan 28, 2011 6:23 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Your proving my point

Theres no guarantee Dareus won’t be the next McCargo, Mike Williams we’ve taken the line in the past. If we had taken BPA instead of reaching for need which is the case for everyone you named minus evans. That is also what your doing for Dareus I’m done reaching for need. I want Fatties just at the right value, or if we decide thats the way to go trade back a few picks. We need to be like Belicheck and draft for value. And no wr don’t draft more when there the first taken. Ill have a whole right up about the stats in a few days.

by ATF on Jan 28, 2011 6:27 PM EST reply actions

and spiller he wasn't a reach either.

by ATF on Jan 28, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions

That is also what your doing for Dareus

ummm – no it’s not – Dareus is not a reach at 3 – that must be the disconnect between u and me

Draft Linemen

by J2 on Jan 28, 2011 7:36 PM EST up reply actions

For Sure

I dont see him as anything special. I dont think he’s as good of a prospect asGerald McCoy was. I honestly think Phil Taylor will be a better nfl talent. You need to think draft value why take a guy at 3 when you can get as good of a prospect with the 34th pick.

by ATF on Jan 28, 2011 9:20 PM EST up reply actions

Like it

I am a firm believer in the need of top flight lineman on both sides of the ball. IMO the inside – out rebuilding philoshophy might actually signify the end of our consistent rebuilding every year. An A rated line and B rated skill position based team at least would provide a realistic view of skill player potential ala Spiller. Cant throw on your back, run threw nonexistent holes or cover a wideout for 5 seconds. I’m not sure but isnt carreer longevity on the “fatguys” side anyways – seems it would provide plenty of time to adequately fill in the gaps. Yes we have had our busts but I’d just like to see rightous fatguys play for us that would be happy to make a Mil a year to play ball in the snow.

by Xebache on Jan 28, 2011 7:45 PM EST reply actions

Your numbers also say

If you dont get a D-lineman in the first you may as well wait to undrafted Rc FA.

Do you also think that to be realistically true ?

Numbers are just numbers – in reality most positions have greater sucesses in round 1 – so what are you really proving to us – better players generally come from round 1 (except the Bills) because we already knew that.

2011 - Revenge of the Bills fan !

by Will G on Jan 29, 2011 2:14 AM EST reply actions

– so what are you really proving to us – better players generally come from round 1 (except the Bills) because we already knew that.

pretty much – but I think your simplifying that too much. what I’m getting at is that the Bills continually build from the outside in and the teams that draft linemen early are the teams that are more successful

Draft Linemen

by J2 on Jan 29, 2011 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

Oh

Well, if that is your comment I 100% agree. Build the lines – agreed !!!

I was happy the year we filled in the interior O – Line. I’d love to see us grab a good DL to go with Troup from last year – that would show commitment to the trenches whether it pans out or not.

2011 - Revenge of the Bills fan !

by Will G on Jan 29, 2011 9:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs