Do You Believe In Luck?

Let's face it; guys believe in luck. Otherwise how could you possibly explain all the times you've seen some total loser hit on some impossibly hot babe? On some level he's thinking that he's got some kind of shot--maybe she's an idiot, has poor judgment, is staggering drunk, whatever....

Anyway, more than a few on Buffalo Rumblings believe that Luck is the next great QB. As we are all aware, he will be staying at Stanford which means that Buffalo won't be able to find a way to take him in the draft...t least the 2011 draft.

But what about the 2012 draft?

Buffalo need not repeat the 2010 campaign of futility in 2011 to have a chance at Luck in the 2012 draft. To keep from crippling the 2011 and 2012 drafts, however, the Bills will need to engage in a little delayed gratification. There are indeed some good reasons for Buffalo to at least consider trading away the #3 selection in the 2011 draft:

1. Let's be honest. History suggests that Buffalo won't select a difference maker at #3 overall. The 2010 draft demonstrated that CHIX will pick the best player, even if that player doesn't fill a critical WR for example.

2. There is a chance, and it seems to be growing, that the 2011 campaign may be truncated due to labor difficulties. The player taken at #3 may well miss OTAs and training camp through no fault of his own. Players who miss OTAs and camp (through holdouts generally) tend to have limited impact in their rookie campaigns.

3. Trading the #3 pick for a 2012 first rounder (and more--see below) would give the Bills the firepower needed to move all the way up to #1 overall when Luck is on the board....all without crippling the 2011 or 2012 drafts.

The first thing is to identify a trading partner. The primary criteria is that the Bills need to trade with a team that is likely to finish in the bottom third of the league in 2011....but that always thinks great success is just around the corner. There's a very good chance that Buffalo will end up with a pick in the top 15 in 2012. On the off chance that the Bills are indeed picking #1 overall in 2012 due to a pitiful showing in 2011 the second first rounder would simply allow the team to pick another impact player.

Washington is a possible target. Dan Snyder loves to wheel and deal. In spite of Shanahan's checkered history as a personnel guy, he certainly doesn't lack for confidence in his ability to pick winners. He also knows that Snyder's got the attention span and patience of an ADHD kid surfing a sugar high. The #3 pick could help Shanahan try (and most likely fail) to turn the Redskins around quickly...quite possibly by expending it on a QB like Cam Newton. Even with a degree of success, Washington is in a brutal division and figures to endure another tough campaign. Plus, if the season is shortened due to a labor dispute the Redskins aren't the type of close knit team of selfless professionals who will thrive (think Patriots).

Assuming Snyder wants to do the deal, what can Buffalo expect? According to the draft value charts, which might be increasingly relevant if a rookie pay scale is adopted, the #3 selection is worth 2200. Whenever you buy on credit, though, you pay a premium. It would not be unreasonable for Buffalo to dangle the #3 and expect Washington's 2011 #10 (1300), 2011 #41 (490)....and 2012 first rounder (value likely north of 1000). But, as we're dealing with a scenario in which Shanahan is trying to stay employed by winning now, he might blanch at giving up the 2011 second round pick--particularly given that Washington traded away their 3rd rounder last year. Again, buying on credit always costs more so Buffalo could quite reasonably ask for Washington's 2011 #10 (1300), 2011 4th rounder (worth about 80--compensatory picks will muddle rounds after the third), 2012 first rounder (value likely north of 1000) and 2012 second rounder (worth about 450).

In either case the Bills would enter the 2012 draft with a pair of first rounders and possibly a pair of second rounders--more than enough juice to get up to #1 overall and select Luck.

For the record, I really don't know all that much about Luck other than what I've read. He could, after all, turn out to be the next Ryan Leaf instead of the next Peyton Manning. If CHIX goes the trade route they'd better get it right....

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of

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