Color Me Skeptical
by J2 on Oct 14, 2011 10:51 AM EDT
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PrintSo far this year has been kind of weird for me. During the off season I felt like I defended the Bills saying they weren't as bad as people made them out to be. Now they are sitting at 4-1 and I feel like the Bills aren't as good as they are made out to be. I guess that's parity in the NFL and just goes to show you that the cliche "Any Given Sunday" exists for a reason. I actually like a lot of things that the Bills have done so far this year, i'm close to buying into this team but i'm skeptical for a few reasons that i'll list below. One things for sure, the Bills have the opportunities to make me a Billeiver over the next few weeks.
1) Win on the road: The Chan Gailey led Bills are 3-7 on the road. Not very good is it? When you go into another teams stadium you have to overcome the emotion from the fans. One thing that goes unnoticed though is that you don't have the energy that your home stadium creates when you're away from the Ralph. The Bills need really start winning on the road and show that they don't have to rely on the energy of the fans to win ball games. I honestly feel that the 12th man played a part of some of our victories. Time to show we're a good football team and start winning consistently on the road because 4 of the next 6 games are on the road.
2) Win without winning the turnover battle: There's nothing wrong with winning the turnover battle. It's a great thing to have on your side and it shows that your defense is making plays. Too many times over the past few years we've been on the wrong end of the turnover battle and we've suffered because of it. However, I think the fact that we picked off Brady 4 times and won by 3 points; picked off Vick 4 times and only won by 7 makes me nervous. You cannot count on turnovers because they won't always be there.
I know that if we're playing from behind and/or specific game situations dictate that you play differently but it gives me great pause to know that we've really handily won the turnover battle yet have only barely beat these teams. Certainly the Eagles and Patriots are good football teams (yes, the Eagles are good) but it's just concerning to me and I don't think you can consistently count on turnovers, especially in the volume that we've gotten them.
3) The deep ball: The deep ball isn't a prerequisite to victory, even Chan said there are different ways to stretch a defense (both vertically and horizontally). However, last week Fitz only attempted 2 passes over 10 yards and both were incomplete. That could have been the game plan because of the Eagles great DBs but fact remains that we don't have a single deep threat and we don't attempt those passes enough. I know protection, scheme and game planning all play a part of that but we need to take shots.
Fitz has been good with throws inside 20 yards - he's:
But you still need the deep ball and if the Bills don't start hitting a few of them, especially early in games, then you're going to see DBs really jump routes and get picks.
4) TE Play: Chandler has been a revelation of sorts in the red-zone but he hasn't done much inside the 20's. That needs to change.
5) Defensive yardage: So the Bills have played some really good offenses; the Patriots, Eagles and Raiders all have really good offenses but are doing a terrible job of stopping teams from picking up too much yardage. Consistency stopping the run remains the biggest issue but pass rush also is a concern. However, we did a much better job against the Eagles as far as pressure and blitz packages so I think the lack of pass rush against certain teams (Patriots, Raiders) were because of our game plan.
Every NFL team has flaws and the Bills are one of them. I'm not suggesting that the Bills fix everything but they really need to come out and show me they are a more solid, fundamental team than what i'm seeing right now. These road games are going to be key to our season. The next 6 weeks really are what is going to make or break our season, not the past 5 weeks. If we can come out and win on the road while picking up 2 or 3 divisional wins then i'll re-evaluate.
Right now though they've played some of the most entertaining football that i've seen in a long time. I really like this team from the coaches down to the players. I think it's time that this team takes the next step and that is more workman like type victories on the road and against divisional opponents. I think the Bills can do it but right now i'm not so sure. It's time for the Bills to put on their hard hats and get to work.
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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Im with you.
Believe me, Im loving this start. I am jacked up as I could be… but… like you said
Win without winning the turnover battle
Thats the #1 thing for me. I read weve scored 80 points off turnovers this year. Thats a lot of our points… and our margain of victories, sans KC, are 3, 4 and 7. That scares me.
Freddy is for real, I believe in the short passing game and the Oline has me on their side… but again, like you said, the yardage this D has been giving up scares me.
Good story, many will take this as “Negative Nancy” … but thats not the case.
Fitz = M(C)²
"Lets Go Buff! a! lo!"
turnovers battle separates winners from losers
I disagree that winning a game without winning the turnover battle necessarily means anything regarding the strength of this team. In fact, thinking that factors such as outgaining your opponent or holding your opponent to under a certain yardage per game is more important than winning the turnover battle is a fallacy – multiple studies have shown that takeaways are the most important factor to winning a football game.
Yeah, there are definately improvements that need to be made. But wanting to win without winning the turnover battle just seems goofy to me. It’s like saying, “Winning a marathon is fine, but I would perfer to do it with a torn hamstring just because I think its more meaningful that way.”
Nobody and I mean Nobody circles the Wagon Blasters like our Buffalo Bills. The Wagon is coming to collect your soul. - abayarde
by DCRumbler on Oct 14, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well of course I want turnovers.
And Id take them every week. But you cant count on tipped balls that turn into INT’s or games where the D scores every week. I know that we are causing these turnovers, but some have been luck of the bounce. Like if that ball hits Dareus head and bounces straight down into the ground instead of to Flo. Or if Caldwell has his legs spread as hes falling and the ball hits the ground instead of his leg…
Fitz = M(C)²
"Lets Go Buff! a! lo!"
Sure, I agree. But for every bounce that goes the Bill’s way there is another that doesn’t. So, I like the fact that the the Bills D seems to be around the ball and they don’t quit on the play until its called that. Do that enough, and you get both the great play and the “lucky” TOs.
Oh, and just my opnion on the about the Dareus play. I know it hit his helmet, but I also saw that he was getting up to disrupt the pass. So, in my mind, the INT came on bad pass + hustle, not just lucky bounce.
Nobody and I mean Nobody circles the Wagon Blasters like our Buffalo Bills. The Wagon is coming to collect your soul. - abayarde
by DCRumbler on Oct 14, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Any low frequency event can’t be counted on, because its inherently noisy — feast or famine — any given sunday. But this applies to all sorts of football strengths/weaknesses. A great deep passing game is also a product of boom or bust type plays, where a freak bounce or two changes the game. Some teams running game is about the big play, if it doesn’t happen, their offense is stagnant, their running game goes away. You can second gues just about any game using this logic.
We remember the turnovers that worked and call those luck, but there are plays where the ball bounces to the ground or sails off the fingertips of the would be interception or the qb just barely escapes the sack. Vick tried to throw multiple picks, we didnt get ‘lucky’ on all of them.
The fact that you win the turnover battle doesn’t make you a worse team. Good teams win the turnover battle. They make fewer mistakes. On average the better team takes advantage.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Oct 14, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I pretty much think TOs and TOP may be the most important stats after the score.
TOP is something I always like to see because the D is off the field and the O is winning at the line of scrimmage. I am sure you can make fast points and win but if your D is winded it lowers your chances of doing that.
I agree about what teams can do and what you can do to teams, plays a big role in each game.
The deep passing game will come against the right teams, I think YAC is way more important. Welker is the a mad man at that and one of NE*s best weapons.
"God all-MIGHTY! God all-MIGHTY! Why do we DO that?!! God all-MIGHTY!!!" "Just keep matriculatin' the ball down the field, boys."
"We're at the crossroads...there's no doubt about that. But you can get it done...you can get it done...what's more you've GOT to get it done." Lou Saban
by zoomer02 on Oct 15, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
nice job
agree 100%. well, maybe I’m not quite as skeptical, but everything you’ve said is the truth.
Ryan FitZpatrick - The Inconvenient Truth.
Year #2 in a 5 year Plan
This is a young team in the second year of a 5-year building plan.
The 2nd year in new offensive and defensive schemes.
A lot of young players just learning how to play in the NFL.
No, they’re not as good as they’ll be next year and the year after that.
There are still holes to fill (next year).
Meanwhile – enjoy the ride. We’re slightly ahead of schedule!!
by swampdog #1 on Oct 14, 2011 11:26 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
well said
my thoughts exactly
even if we are lucky enough to make the playoffs this year, no one really thinks we can be a real SB contender.
well all know we still need depth, experience, and few more studs to make us the contenders for the long-term.
by the buffahoe on Oct 14, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I bet Chan feels these guys could get to a SB
I love that he wouldn’t say they wouldn’t, or say things like it is tough to win. :)
"God all-MIGHTY! God all-MIGHTY! Why do we DO that?!! God all-MIGHTY!!!" "Just keep matriculatin' the ball down the field, boys."
"We're at the crossroads...there's no doubt about that. But you can get it done...you can get it done...what's more you've GOT to get it done." Lou Saban
I think its smart to temper expectations. They haven’t really played a complete game outside of KC. That being said, we’ve played some decent teams and won. The best teams don’t play complete games week in and week out. Just reality. This team has shown improvement in almost every category versus last year, to me the direction is first and foremost the key. That gives me more hope that the people are in place to continue to improve.
The one thing I wouldnt dismiss so quickly is the turnovers. Some top defenses have thrived off turnovers and I don’t know if it has to be random. New Orleans and Green Bay are two recent superbowl teams whose defenses gave up yards, but that forced turnovers. Sure, you might get unlucky, but some teams look to be better at generating them. Just like New England fans will say they live or die by Brady, if he has a bad week, its over.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
If they win the turnover battle every week and that takes them to the playoffs, I don’t think they have something to “prove” — winning the turnover battle is in and of itself the product of doing something right.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Oct 14, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Why Can't Brad Smith Be a Deep Threat?
Isn’t he a speed demon? What about CJ? These guys are both supposed to have speed. Can’t they be the ones to burn the DBs deep?
"The Amish Rifle is your god now." - Muzza34
by BuffaloOwdaTwnr on Oct 14, 2011 1:18 PM EDT reply actions
Brad Smith
will score on a 30+ yard TD pass this weekend. Just watch.
I’ll wait until you say something sig worthy
by BillsFanSanDiego619 on Oct 14, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t watch a whole lot of Brad last year on the Jets but he hasn’t impressed me at all in the passing game. Both receiving and throwing….
11 years of losing has taught me just a smidge of humility. - k8
by J2 on Oct 14, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
as a receiver he’s been out there at least 10 times and has done jack squat. Quarterback not at all in the regular season but in the preseason he looked awful at it
11 years of losing has taught me just a smidge of humility. - k8
by J2 on Oct 15, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I've thought almost all the same things that you have written here
But I just keep going back to you saying it’s “the most entertaining football in some time” and I can’t help but feel like that is enough for me, FOR NOW. They’ve been so bad, for so long, that wins by 3, 4 and 7 are GREAT because they are WINS! How many 3, 4 and 7 losses have we seen? How many times have we seen them snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? I love that they are winning and I find that I don’t care how they do it!
If they lose a couple in a row, I’ll be sad and probably come back to this list and think, “I should have listened.” But for now, while I agree with you, I’m gonna just enjoy the ride.
Here's hoping!
First off I would say this is year two of five year rebuild. We went 4-12 last year j2 even our home record is not great yet. Most games in the nfl are decided by 7 points are less. Expecting the bills to beat down opponets week in and week out is pointless. Buffalo has played raiders, cincy, eagles, pats, and kc. Except for kc none of those teams are a pushover this year. We can do the if game all day long. If stevie catches the pass in ot against steelers. If kc did not ice lindell. Saying if does not change what happens. These plays happened and our players made them. Wanting to win a game without turn over battle being won is bs. You go into a game trying to win that battle its part of the game. That whole idea just boggles my mind.
"This is a chance to shine some light on the city, They say it’s too cold. I’m going to bring some warmth to it." Marcell Dareus
by matthew62 on Oct 14, 2011 2:12 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Totally agree
With pretty much everything you said I want to BILLieve but I’m just waiting for something to go wrong. I think that’s just a by-product of so much of the past creeping back into my skull. With that said I very much a cautious optimist right now but it has been fun to watch these games that’s for sure.
by brucesmithistheman on Oct 14, 2011 2:39 PM EDT reply actions
Well said...rec'd
Fitz only attempted 2 passes over 10 yards and both were incomplete. That could have been the game plan because of the Eagles great DBs but fact remains that we don’t have a single deep threat and we don’t attempt those passes enough. I know protection, scheme and game planning all play a part of that but we need to take shots.
I agree, but the reason they didn’t take anymore shots might very well be because of those great CBs. With those two deep balls the Bills tested both asomugha and cromartie. Both times they were well defended and the Bills were lucky they didn’t get a pick 6 from cromartie. My guess is Chan decided not to press his luck told Fitz the same.
Don't fear the Reaper......fear The Beard
If you ask a question you don't want an answer to, expect an answer you don't want to hear.
by Joe P. on Oct 14, 2011 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree- the biggest concern of mine at this point is the offense. It’s becoming predictable and teams are adjusting. Only 24 offensive points of 4 turnovers (3 INT, 1 Fumble) if you take out the INT return… Granted we just ran out the clock on the last INT, but I worry if the defense doesn’t keep up the turnovers they will spend a lot of time of the field if the offense can’t sustain drives like they couldn’t in the second half last sunday
Agree with most of it, except for 2 points, one of which made me laugh a bit.
4) TE Play: Chandler has been a revelation of sorts in the red-zone but he hasn’t done much inside the 20’s. That needs to change.
I don’t think he needs to be on the field any more than he is in between the 20’s. His value is the greatest where he’s being used, in the redzone. Using a TE helps condense the defense which is the opposite of what Gaileys offense wants to do.
The next 6 weeks really are what is going to make or break our season, not the past 5 weeks. If we can come out and win on the road while picking up 2 or 3 divisional wins then i’ll re-evaluate.
So after 11 games of a 16 game season you will re-evaluate? Won’t it be a bit late at that point? lol
I like most of the points you bring up though, the team still has a lot to prove.
"I got no problem with 7-9 coming off of 4-12 as long as I don't buy a couch there, you got to keep moving" - Mike Schoop
J2 We see eye to eye on alot of things
I’ll say this, I think when Donald Jones went down our game plan changed a bit.
Philly has three pro-bowl DB’s and we have 1 pro bowl WR, couple that with the fact that we lost one our starters in the first quarter and I think Chan had a feeling that he needed to stick with the ground game and short screen game if we were going to be effective.
Our keys to success against the Giants are this:
Stop the run
Force Eli to make quick decisions
Protect Fitzy by chipping DE’s with RB’s and TE’s
With Jones going down I think we might see a good ol fashioned dual TE package this week with Smith and Chandler on the field at the same time. Chan said straight up that the Bills needed to get Freddie the ball more and what do they do they come out and put the ball in his hands on the majority of plays.
Stevie is going to have a field day against a very weak Giants secondary, The Giants best Pass defense is their amazing pass rush so our quick slants and screens that have kept Fitzy upright all year kind of plays perfectly into this situation. Alot of the Bills not taking shots downfield has to do with the scheming of keeping Fitzy clean, when your getting the ball out of your QB’s hands quick you don’t really have a chance to take big shots downfield.
Merriman being out is going to play a huge part in how the Bills rush the passer this weekend. I think we will see Moats strong side with Batten weakside. I would not be one bit surprised to see the Bills play alot of 4-3 this weekend with Kirk Morrison, Barnett and Andra Davis. I’m happy to see McGee back, our defense needs to control the game though and help our offense going forward . Being in NY the Bills will have quite a few fans at the game and it won’t really be a big road game.
If there is anything that has me skeptical about this Bills team its our inability to prevent big plays from happening, it seems we give up a big play a drive and that takes it’s toll on a defense.
"Big Gulps Eh, Well See ya later" - Lloyd Christmas
" You Gus ready To Let The Dogs Out" "What?" " you Know, Who Let the dogs out rough rough rogh rough" - Zack Galifinakis - The Hangover
Color me skeptical?
About what, that they r SB contenders?
Just enjoy the ride. They r a team trying to build something. It doesn’t happen overnight. They will regress, they will move forward. That’s life this soon into a rebuild. Everyone wants to label, predict, over analyze everything to death. This team is fun to watch, is well coached and perhaps better yet, is playing together as a team and for our city. It’s everying we’ve been asking for in quite some time.
ENJOY!!!!
by DJ O on Oct 14, 2011 9:40 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Sorry
I gotta say well said and rec your comment. Enjoy!
by buffalobacker on Oct 14, 2011 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, it begs the question skeptical relative to what? J2 spent most of preseason saying they are better than the skeptics think and now its worse than what?
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Oct 15, 2011 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
than where they currently are – if the playoffs started today we’d be in them, i’m not sure that we’ll be there at the end of the season. I want us to be but i’m not sure how good we are yet.
11 years of losing has taught me just a smidge of humility. - k8
by J2 on Oct 15, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Come on, they are what their record says they are. We can’t be revisionists. That’s like saying Green Bay wasn’t a superbowl team last year because their ground game was no good, even though they were a superbowl team You are saying they are worse than some expectation, you can’t say they are worse than what they are.
But I get it if you think there seems to be an expectation of 10-6 and you think they are 8-8 or something like that I understand. It’s just a realtive statement you are making, and it begs the question relative to what.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Oct 15, 2011 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
what makes you think i’m not enjoying the Bills so far?
11 years of losing has taught me just a smidge of humility. - k8
by J2 on Oct 15, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The title doesn’t read ‘color me impressed’. To me, you either fall into one of two camps, 1) u r happy thus far or 2) u demand perfection.
Your post sounds as if you r not impressed at all. Therefore if you aren’t, I can’t imagine u r enjoy it.
cut and dry
is one thing this team is not. In fact, i don’t imagine any NFL team fanbase can be cut into two specific groups the way you suggest. I personally, would fall in the “I am satisfied right now with our record, but feel that there is plenty of room for improvement , and know that at any time, this wagon train can be unhitched or derailed.” group. So… does that mean i am not enjoying wins? Sure, I am enjoying the outcome, but to be honest, if not for absurd amounts of turnovers, we probably lose most of our games thus far. So it isn’t irrational that fans could still be skeptical, and yet remain entertained, and hopeful. It is possible. I do it year, after year, after year.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Oct 16, 2011 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Interesting
That u say ‘satisfied’ not happy. Every team in the league needs to improve, so I don’t know why it even needs mentioning. Turnovers r claimed to be the reason we won two of our 4 wins on the season, yet couldn’t it also be brought up that it was our coaching and front office decisions that allowed that to happen? U think Poz would have 3 picks thus far this yr? U think Donte could play a game like Wilson did? U think Dick Jauron would have coached a fake snap to draw offsides successfully?
Those of course r rhetorical questions, because no one that watched Bills football over the past 5 years would agree. My point is this is a different team than years past. And they r different precisly because Chan and Buddy made sure of it. So color me not surprised.
And I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised by the skepticism, because chances r these same skeptical fans may also be the ones to have disagreed with so many of our FO moves.
you are pretty good at making assumptions about others, but i don’t understand how it is that you can’t understand that being happy with anything less than a superbowl win is basically not an option for a true fan. Sure every team has varying degrees of needs, at any time during a given season. it is worth mentioning that we have so much room for improvement, because our defense has done little more than create turnovers. they certainly don’t keep offenses from scoring many other ways that i have seen.
convenient you choose “rhetorical” questions to not afford a rebuttle. if i were to speak on those questions, the answers would be “maybe”, “he has” and “yes, every coach teaches that play”.
again you make an inaccurate assumption. I personally have been pretty well satisfied and agreed with most of the moves. there are exceptions: i am a well documented Kelsay non-supporter, because i think he struggles with run fits and coverage, meaning he is only good as a pass rusher, and we have had a terrible pass rush his entire tenure. I have been complaining about most of our lineman on offense being no-namers, and journeymen, but they have been productive. I complain that Florence is a penalty machine, but that gets pushed aside when he makes the plays he has this season. I bitch about Bryan Scott being flat footed an beat deep (he still has been too)There is plenty of opportunities for guys to continue stepping up. I myself have been pushing for George Wilson to be the starter since he and byrd traded off INTs during Byrd’s rookies season while donte was injured. I literally called the Spiller, the Dareus (who couldn’t) AND the sheppard and Hairston selections prior, and i have been supportive of the LB moves. Could we have done things different, or better? sure. are we still on the right, or at least a good course? I would like to hope so. But that doesn’t mean that we don’t still have needs on the line (our 4th round rookie is a starter, whether capable or not), or that we don’t still have opportunities to improve other areas of our team still. By no means are we a polished “perennial playoff” team yet, in my opinion. But we need to get there first to be capable of that… and i do believe that isn’t out of the realm of possibilities yet. It is still early.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Oct 16, 2011 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions
rec’d TRT because exactly where I am.
I’m loving this – I’m on this blog 365 days a year and I watch Bills coverage on everything yet i’m somehow not satisfied with a 4-1 start? really?
11 years of losing has taught me just a smidge of humility. - k8
by J2 on Oct 16, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I rec'd it as well.....
and will probably feel the same if we get to 5-1. maybe I will feel better when we are 6-1 :)
Don't fear the Reaper......fear The Beard
If you ask a question you don't want an answer to, expect an answer you don't want to hear.
Old Saying
A wins a win. Of course your skeptical, we hardly ever win! I’ll take a win regardless of how its achieved:)
Yep. Agree
You’ve pretty much nailed all my concerns right there. Certainly the whole turnover thing has been bitter sweet for me. I want to see us either get turnovers and win by a lot or not get many/any but still win. That will convince me on this team.
But for now, I’ll be thankfull for what we’ve got!
Go Bills!!
"Don't I know you?"
"Nah, that ain't me, man. I'm from Buffalo"
Good Post
The porous defense (450+ yards every week) is a huge concern. If there is one stat that makes me rethink the chances of a legitimate playoff run, it’s that one. (IMHO, the Bills should draft defenders almost exclusively next year.)
Another concern is winning on the road. Only four of the Bills remaining eleven games are at home. (It remains to be seen whether Toronto will be a "home" game.) They’ll have to pick up their level of intensity on the road.
The last point is psychological and a little more abstract but still significant, I think. If they cease to view themselves as the underdog, blue collar, overachieving, has-been, cast-away team that really defines who they are, they may lose something. Right now, they’re on the verge of becoming the Cinderella Bills. It’ll be a precarious balance maintaining that. Here’s hoping they do.
Emerging from the shadow of the 2008 Bills would be a good start.
Go Bills!
Nice Recap
There are a lot of reasons to temper enthusiasm and you’d touched on most of them. I think the deep ball issue is a bigger one than Gailey is admitting. The Eagles appeared to lock down Buffalo’s attempts to horizontally stretch the field and I can see the Giants doing the same….along with pretty much any defense that can generate pressure with the front four.
I wasn't sure I was going to like the white helmets but seeing them in the practice footage, I've got to say that I love the look.
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