Thoughts On Our Buffalo Bills O-Line Notes
by Ron From NM on Oct 7, 2011 8:25 AM EDT
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PrintI began to look in depth at the Buffalo Bills' offensive line several years ago. Buffalo's line, at that point, included Melvin Fowler and Duke Preston. There was much back-and-forth (on another site, mind you) about Buffalo's centers. Some thought Fowler and Preston were just terrible, and some believed them to be serviceable, or even above average. People bickered back and forth and no one really attempted to back up their positions with any sort of data.
Frustrated with the endless recriminations, I sat down and began to analyze every lineman on every snap and created a rating system to quantify the effectiveness of the individual linemen. It served to give people a taking-off point for discussions about particular linemen, which allowed the conversation to move beyond he's-great-versus-he-stinks.
Over the past few years, several sites have begun to take a much closer look at offensive linemen. Brian, for example, recently linked a story from a site that rated Demetrius Bell the best left tackle in football. While I am limited to watching the very same game you are, these sites presumably have access to coache's tapes - tapes that provide better angles which allow for more precise judgments as to the performance of each lineman. Additionally, professional sites rate and compare linemen on all 32 teams.
I like looking at the line and will continue to do so simply because it is of personal interest. However, if the consensus seems to be that the professional sites are the way to go, then there may not be a need for me to take the time and effort to do weekly write-ups. I've attached a poll to get the pulse of the Rumblings community. I ask that people not take to the comments section to try to sway people one way or another; instead vote in the way that makes the most sense to you.
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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Keep It Up Ron
I seem to have logged on exactly as you posted this, but my two cents is that I would much rather have someone who is a member of the community, willing to do this out of love of the game and the Bills, than some heartless professional site (OK, too melodramatic?). If I want more, I’d seek out these sites. But I don’t. I think your efforts are excellent and to be applauded.
by T McGee on Oct 6, 2011 10:00 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Why can’t we have both?
.
When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.
by Buffalo for Eternity on Oct 6, 2011 10:10 PM EDT reply actions
Is it possible?
I know some sites like Pro Football Focus like to withhold their information except for paid subscribers. While the promise of data made from coach’s tapes is appealing, I do like the home-grown perspective that comes from a native Rumbler’s perspective on the Bills’ offensive line. I don’t see a reason to switch away from the current format.
Would we be able to get information about other groups though? Like target/catch data about our receivers or productivity ratings for our defensive front seven? The more information us readers could get, the better, I’d say.
"Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin." - stetzwebs
No
First, I want to compare Bills with Bills and keep this site as Bills centric as possible. If some other site has Bell as the best LT in the league, I am not sure I want to read that. Your right ups are very objective, and hard on the players. Your system with the different types of plays rarely fives a perfect score, and to me thats spot on because this team and the line have flaws. You and the rest of us who have been fans, and especially those on this site from the beginning, know how bad this team was and you have to be very cautious when it comes to anointing players for doing their job a few times in a row. I read your stuff and always thought a lot of work went into it. If you want to keep doing it, I’ll read it.
I'm waitin'..... @killascript on twitter
I can't believe the effort you contribute, not only every game but every year.
This task that you perform every week is one that should be up to professionals and I don’t mean Mel Kiper or Todd McShay. Your reviews and analysis in my opinion are as close to any experts that these professional sites publish. Although, IMO your grading system and allowances will skew your report thus making it harder to compare or believe to those so called professionals.
The art of formulating a system that accounts for five individuals to perform as one individual and the overall success rate of those five individuals can not be totally perfect in any sense. So for me to say your rating system needs to be more forgiving than those of the professionals well the same arguement could be made about the nature of those professionals being to forgiving towards those individual lineman. I guess what I am trying to say is that for you or anyone to receive the justice you deserve in these studies there cannot be such discrepencies or you will receive unsolicited criticism.
Ryan Fitzpatrick commented on Bell’s sack from last weeks game that it was his fault and that he should of got rid of the ball. Was Ryan taking one for the team with that comment or was it really Bell getting beat. Personally, I feel Bell got beat/over powered, but the arguement can be made that Fitz needed to get rid of the ball.
Eric Wood played a few games at center for us late last season. I didn’t see one damn thing that warranted him coming into camp as the preannounced starter for 2011. Your analysis pointed out that Wood performed at a much more containable to dominant effort than predecessor Geoff Hangartner.
I don’t have any problem with your posts, but I do find interest in multiple opionions from people that study this same thing. I do have tons of problems with fans that take your reports as gospel and want to throw our players under the bus, because they weren’t a first, second or even third round draft pick. I do find issue with fans that suggest we pick up players from other teams scrap pile when the fact is that these guys are all players and if and when they get their opportunity to play have as much potential as any early round pick. In my opinion I would like to see more emphasis on the whole line more so than the individuals. The sum of the parts will always be greater than the individual parts. You do a lot of good stuff with this thing, I just think it can be communicated better. Hope I wasn’t offensive in my criticism as I tried to be as constructive as I could at 1am. We all know one thing and that is we haven’t had a decent offensive line in a long time and this time around we didn’t go out and try to buy one and it is working the best in a long time. Let’s hope it continues.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
by VanScottM on Oct 7, 2011 1:01 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
The telling question:
Do YOU think Bell has been the best LT to this point (or before week 4)? THAT will truly indicate whether you are a professional or not. ;)
GO BLUE!!!
Your O-Line analysis is one of the things i look forward to the most on here each week
I think it is easily the equal of any of these ‘professional’ sites you mention. I would hate to see it go.
"You are drunk, sir!" "And you are ugly, madame! But I will be sober in the morning!"
I commented earlier with “Why can’t we have both?”, and thought I would add a bit.
Viewing http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7057677/nfl-too-much-heat-o-lines gave me a new perspective on what expectations I have for the Bills’ O-Line. A former O-Lineman gave his perspective on why so many have poor opinions of many teams lines.
Sometimes we end up like the characters in the “The Blind Men & The Elephant” story, and only see one aspect of whatever topic it is we are discussing. In order to obtain the best understanding of a topic it is often required to get as many viewpoints as possible.
To that end your reviews and analysis, coupled with those from other sources, give us additional tools to make our opinions more valid.
I would like to see you continue your O-Line articles. There is a place for your insight and other sources.
.
When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.
by Buffalo for Eternity on Oct 7, 2011 7:31 AM EDT reply actions
Ron – most other “professional” sites do NOT have access to coach’s tape. As a matter of fact, the NFL is currently conducting a survey doing research into whether or not they should release coach’s tape to the general public – or, more accurately, how much money they can make by doing so.
Keep doing what you’re doing. People love it.
Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford
by Brian Galliford on Oct 7, 2011 8:29 AM EDT reply actions 5 recs
whether or not they should release coach’s tape to the general public – or, more accurately, how much money they can make by doing so.
That is indeed the only reason they would ever do such a thing…
Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin. -- stetzwebs
No one circles the waiver wire like the Buffalo Bills!
If they don’t have access to coaches tape I have a hard time understanding how they can be all that precise in their judgments. Try looking at, say the RG when the view presented on TV is from the left side of the line. Generalities are all that can be regularly observed from that angle. Coach’s tape, on the other hand, allows for a much better view of each lineman on every play. I’m stunned to hear that the professional sites don’t have the that footage.
I wasn't sure I was going to like the white helmets but seeing them in the practice footage, I've got to say that I love the look.
1. I enjoy the posts here every week. In fact, that’s what I look forward to the most on this site (I pretty much read everything).
2. Do what you want to do. I imagine this takes a lot of your time to grade everyone on every play, and then write it up. If it’s a burden, don’t do it. If you enjoy it, keep going.
Ron,
Your insight is definitely valued here, your O-line notes are one of the posts I look forward to every week. I appreciate all of the time you spend helping us Rumblers get a better understanding of the offense line and their play. The fact that you simplify it to a basic rating system also helps.
So no, we don’t need no stinkin’ professionals. As long as you’d like to rate the o-line, I’d like to read what you think.
"It’s like I’ve always said, don’t tell me about the labor pains, just show me the baby."
- Buddy Nix
"How can a guy with a name like Melo be such a pain in the ass?"
- George Lopez
They are not really professionals
There are gaping statistical holes in a lot of the stuff at ProFootballFocus and others. Most of it is subjective. Football is not as easily quantified as baseball and the statistics being developed so far, that are publicly available anyway, are not very good. They are definitely not good enough to discourage you from continuing your fine work.
I would just encourage you to tweak your own system and improve it, even at the cost of consistency, if you see opportunities to do so.
The subjective nature of any grading system is why I opted for a broadsword instead of a chef’s knife. I had considered going with a numerical grade on each play—say 78% for one play or 63%. The problem is that I don’t always have an angle to be more precise and rating a play 75% instead of 77% would seem arbitrary. So I went with 55%, 75% and 95% for bad, decent and good plays.
I wasn't sure I was going to like the white helmets but seeing them in the practice footage, I've got to say that I love the look.
As long as you have the time and passion for it
Please keep doing your write ups. These grades that these services provide are all based on people’s opinions. That they’re “Pros” means that their opinion MAY be better informed, but that doesn’t make yours any less valid or valuable, and it’s always good to have multiple perspectives.
We will not rest until we see these capitalist octopuses annihilated.
-Che Marrone
I enjoy the post each week, and I guess the question is: If you didn’t do this, what else would you write each week that I would enjoy! I kid. I appreciate the work you put in. I don’t comment on them as much as I usually do, but part of that is that you do a solid job and I understand the rating system. Don’t take that as a lack of interest in the posts. It’s one of the things that I think makes Rumblings unique. This site breaks down film in a way that I don’t really see from other sites. I’ve seen your work linked on other SB nation blogs. If they could just find out about the O-line from professionals, wouldn’t they take the “pros” word for it. Plus, it gives you more to write about! You get to agree with or rebut those other sites using your criteria.
Thank you thank you thank you thank you sireric for bringing the furious punching cat back into my life. - poz
by bluecollarbuffalo on Oct 7, 2011 8:56 AM EDT reply actions
personally
while I feel the OL (and DL) are the heart beats of a team, I have neither the knowledge or experience to approach their performance from a technical standpoint. I look more at the “result”, i.e. rushing yds., sacks, pressures,etc.
I, for one, rely on your analysis to prove/disprove my “inclination”. I have been a vocal critic of how the team has addressed to OL to date and your data and expert input has tempered that criticism through education.
I would hope you do not find your efforts to be any less insightful than the “pros” because you are a pro…and a pro of the highest level.
Whatever the result of your poll, thank you for the education!
This team is making me skeptical of my skepticism- putting the crow in the oven to slow roast.
I’d say just tweak your system a little bit. If you could figure out a way to account for synergy it would become much more valuable, in my opinion.
Check out buddynixon.com for more of my work.
Account for synergy?
I wasn't sure I was going to like the white helmets but seeing them in the practice footage, I've got to say that I love the look.
Essentially account for how they’re playing as a unit rather than 5 individual performances.
Check out buddynixon.com for more of my work.
I don’t know how to do that. Their collective performance is derived from their individual performances though the whole is admittedly always greater than the sum of its parts. I’m not sure how to account for how they’re playing as a whole on individual plays.
I wasn't sure I was going to like the white helmets but seeing them in the practice footage, I've got to say that I love the look.
I was thinking maybe something like adding another variable to your spreadsheet or whatever to code whether the line overall had a successful play. Than, you could filter and see who’s mistakes are contributing most to sacks, that sort of thing.
Just an idea, but I think it’d take like 2 seconds and add add to already solid system.
Check out buddynixon.com for more of my work.
Voted No
Obviously people enjoy your view and appreciate your hard work. If its something you enjoy, then please keep doing it.
"Sit down and watch my Buffalo Bills destroy your Kingdome" - Abayarde
Chris Kelsay is a good football player.
Collect and inform..
The analysis done by the writers at this site is great. I think it is put out in a way that any average joe can understand. The other sites, PFF, FO, etc. do not do the best of compiling various stats and presenting them in a way that everyone can understand.
If the team of writers here can get the stas and present them to the readers the same way other topics are [presetned it would be the best of both worlds.
I hope you take the time to keep writing those posts. They are always a joy to read.
One thing I do ask is that for next week’s article, you include the post you did a few years ago about how the rating system works. I’m not sure if it’s just newbies not understanding the system or people who just didn’t care to read the description when it was published, but every week there seems to be something along the lines of, “If he did so great, why did he only get a 78% in pass blocking?” when people don’t realize that 80% is a pretty darn good score.
"We have an elite pass rushing LB who likes to conserve electricity." -- Munchausen
Great job
keep it up & add blocking of the backs when they stay in if u can.
Note: The ‘tape thing’ – if you have HD, screen & a dvr you pretty much have tape.
"Alright Men, lets go out there, bust um in the chops & get somebody bloody. Keep working hard till you get it right. Take the W in battle & make the Bills Nation Proud." coach Karma420
by Blood, sweat & Win on Oct 7, 2011 10:12 AM EDT reply actions
Expanding Ron
I look at your #’s & the performance on the field and have found you to be very accurate.
However Im an older #’s guy so maybe tweaking delivery somehow could be a good thing.
"Alright Men, lets go out there, bust um in the chops & get somebody bloody. Keep working hard till you get it right. Take the W in battle & make the Bills Nation Proud." coach Karma420
by Blood, sweat & Win on Oct 7, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
By all means keep it up but consider modifying grading system
Believe it or not I really do find your write-ups valuable, but as I have written before I would like to see you change your grading system to make it more valuable by spreading out the grades more — i.e., by distinguishing between “good” plays in which the lineman is able to maintain his block and keep full containment and “decent” plays in which he may get pushed back into the vicinity of the QB but still manages to prevent the defender from actually reaching the QB. My complaint has been that your grades all bunch up in the middle — everyone seems to get a 75 plus or minus 2. What I’m suggesting would open up the scale more and allow us to see more differences among the performances of the 0-linemen both within each week and between weeks.
My issue with going to 5 different rating categories is that I don’t always have the view necessary for that level of assessment—maintaining a block and getting pushed a little can be difficult to see all of the time. More rating categories would indeed be more accurate and I’d love it if we always had that endzone view angle. I’m thinking about weighting killed plays more heavily (perhaps 25% instead of the 55% I’ve used for bad plays?) because killed plays are always discernable. Thinking as I type outstanding plays could be weighted higher than standard good plays, though there’s not much room there….
As for the ratings constantly being in the 75 range, well, you may not be remembering some of the linemen Buffalo has employed. I’d have been delighted to see Fower/Preston anywhere near 75 on run plays and not to kill so many pass plays…
I wasn't sure I was going to like the white helmets but seeing them in the practice footage, I've got to say that I love the look.
Ok, you’ve got me with Fowler and Preston. Your system did a great job of rating them.
My suggestion would be to try distinguishing between merely good and decent plays for a while and see how it goes. You may find that you can do it more easily than you now assume, and if you can that would definitely improve the ratings and make them much more valuable. Why not give it a shot? If it turns out to be too hard (i.e., if you are spending too much time repeatedly viewing plays to decide if it is a firm block or one in which the OT or OG gave way too much) then by all means stop doing it. But my bet is that it should not take more time.
After all, what you are looking for is whether or not the blocker remained in control. If an OT is pushed back ten or even fifteen yards, that’s still a good play as long as he is able to keep the DE or OLB or blitzer well away from the QB. If the dance they are doing starts getting close to the QB but the OT stays in control, that’s a decent play. On the other hand, if the defender gets close enough to be a potential problem for the QB or is able to touch him in any way, that becomes a bad play.
In effect, the system I’m proposing doesn’t depend on whether the o-lineman is getting pushed a bit, but on whether that pushing is allowing the defender to get close to or touch the QB. Wouldn’t it be possible to determine that with the tape you have?
I agree with many commenters above
I love your posts, and think you should absolutely keep doing them. But at the same time, every system can grow and improve, so always look to be improving yours (not that I have any real idea how you would accomplish this…).
Thanks again, Ron!
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Ron
I always enjoy your analysis. I have been reading your posts since way back on that other site. I do not read every post on the Rumbling site but I always read yours. Keep doing what you’re doing, if you want to keep doing it.
While. You must.....
Know how all NFL linemen are doing to make a point nationally, or to rate a lineman against others…..there is still a ton of info you can obtain just by watching our own little fishbowl……
I would like to see the D broken down and rated as well…….moreso after that bungle game…. Very disconcerting results for the D…..
PodunkO - The great post ender!
Mea Culpa
Must have had a flashback … thought I was voting FOR you Ron, not against you. I LOVE your analysis. Keep up the good work.
Please keep it up
if you have the time…I trust your analysis more than the supposed professionals. Alternative opions are always good to have, but you provide the bread and butter.
"They're Killin' Me Whitey. They're Killin' Me" -- Lou Saban
No. The more opinions and analysis the better.
I have really begun to question PFF’s “expertise” when reading some of their articles. Some observations that seem fairly obvious aren’t that obvious to a few of their writers.
My main issue with the blogosphere/twitter today is that people just regurgitate what they have heard or read elsewhere as fact. Many fans don’t take the time to look and investigate for themselves. This is why I (and I’m sure others) appreciate your work. Even if we disagree with a few of the ratings, we know they were from your observations, not preconceptions from mass media.
We all have personal favorites and have a tendency to defend them if we see them graded poorly, but we are still appreciative of the info and perspective.
I’d be disappointed to see your analysis go away.
"I got no problem with 7-9 coming off of 4-12 as long as I don't buy a couch there, you got to keep moving" - Mike Schoop
I really hate to be the lone voice of dissention here. But please hear me out. I read your article every week and I do take stock in what you’ve got to say. However, in the back of my mind I know that I don’t know how “qualified” (for lack of a better term) you are in evaluating NFL offensive lineman. For all I know you could be a former NFL OL coach or just a maniacal fan throwing out arbitrary grades. Obviously those are extremes and I am savvy enough to realize your really in the middle somewhere close to the former.
The other thing I would have to say, and this is regarding grading OL in general (professional or not), it is that to me putting a grade on every play of every player doesn’t necessarily indicate how effecient a player is in certain situations. As well, linemen’s rules are quite difficult to follow and I am assuming that the evaluators don’t have them in front of them. So a poor block on one play could be due to the guy next to him screwing up…
Just my two cents. And Ron. I appreciate you.
My earlier post got deleted yesterday Ron.
Keep putting your articles on here. I love reading them.
"There is not a loser in this room." Marv Levy.
by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Oct 7, 2011 9:37 PM EDT reply actions
I love the O-line analysis
The only difference I would make is possibly moving the value you assign to bad plays (is it 50 right now?) down a little (like 35), and then moving the average play (75?) down a little less (like 65). That way it would help the Good and Bad plays having more of an effect on the total percentage so we can see move of the variance and difference in the numbers between players.
Still I love what you are doing with it and being a numbers guy, I love what you have done turning the plays into statistical percentages.
Keep up the great work.
Don't think of the other guys too highly
Other websites DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO COACHES TAPE! They watch TV just like the rest of us. The only difference is they’re trying to cash in on the Moneyball and sabremetrics craze by creating random formulas out of thin air and trying to pimp it out as something amazing. Think ESPN’s new QB rating.
Other webites are doing the exact same thing Ron is doing, except they are not as familiar with each team. Plus I suspect they do not have enough employees to cover every player on every play on every team. So they cheat a little here and there.
Here is Football Outsiders just a week ago asking fans to vote on having the NFL sell coaches tape to the public http://footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2011/nflcom-coaches-film-survey
They specifically say “We heartily encourage our readers who want this as badly as we do to fill out that survey”, clearly alluding to the fact they watch TV like we all do. Do not overrate these guys. Only when they release coaches tape to the public will NFL player analysis improve to the level of REAL NFL scouts.
by MusicHunch on Oct 8, 2011 4:59 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
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