Thoughts on Rebuild and Playoffs at the Halfway Point

by Luther6 on Nov 7, 2011 5:58 PM EST

As we all know, the Bills were thoroughly outplayed and outcoached yesterday. The Bills match up poorly against the Jets, to be sure, but that doesn’t begin to tell the whole story. Yesterday’s game should help to put this season into perspective: the Bills are on the right track but they’re not there yet. There will be enough pitfalls along the way without creating their own.

There are the humble and the humbled, as Chan likes to say. The Bills didn’t come off as terribly humble this week. Stevie Johnson started to sound a little too cocky, which doesn’t fit the character of this team. And there was the Aaron Maybin bashing last week, which at times struck me as needless and gratuitous. And then there was the misplaced confidence (and perhaps even arrogance) among players and fans.

To paraphrase a contemporary genius, hubris alone does not make one great. These types of things should be checked early in this rebuild, lest the team risk losing its identity. As Chan said after the Bills went 3-0, "let’s see how we handle [success]." Well, judging from the available data, the Bills perform best in the role of underdog. Yesterday’s loss gives them the chance to reclaim this status, for underdogs they are. They can win the next two games on the road and still remain under the radar, bringing them to a rematch against the Jets at MetLife, which may be a must-win (see below).

If you asked me in August whether I would happily accept the Bills going 5-3 through the first half of the season against teams with a combined record of 33-23 (including a win against the Pats), I would absolutely have taken it. Any sane fan would have. But the fact remains that the Bills performance against the Jets was abysmal in light of expectations, so perhaps we, as fans, should begin to temper these.

It takes experience in "big ones" to win games like yesterday's. The Jets have that experience; the Bills are getting it. As often happens in life, yesterday’s game may be one that the Bills look back on later and realize that humiliation was the best thing that could’ve happened to them.

Playoff Prospects

Last year, two teams went 10-6 and failed to make the playoffs (Giants and Bucs). Since the NFL reorganized into 8 divisions in 2002, five teams that have gone 10-6 and one team that went 11-5 (2008 Patriots) have failed to make the playoffs. The loss in Cincinnati looms larger each week. Things could play out differently (Cincinnati, for example, could implode), but a glance at schedules and the competition for a Wild Card spot (Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Patriots, and Jets) suggests a tough road to the playoffs, and that 10-6 really might not cut it this year in the AFC, though in most years it would.

All in all, this has been an amazing year, and there is still a lot of fun ahead of us. This team will go into Dallas humble and focused – and hopefully with that chip back on their shoulders. In other words, the Bills we saw this season before yesterday.

GO BILLS!

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Comments

Yeah...... I kinda agree with you.

I could do without the Bills on national media.
Seems like everytime it happens, we lose.

"There is not a loser in this room." Marv Levy.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Nov 7, 2011 6:37 PM EST reply actions

Agree'd

When the media starts picking the Bills as favorites in a game, they lay an egg. In all three losses the Bills were favored. I used to be mad at the talking heads for always picking against the bills, now, forget it, pick the other team please.

Trample the weak, hurdle the dead!

by fansince83 on Nov 7, 2011 7:00 PM EST up reply actions

Absolutely. And when we do get media, it should be about Fred Jackson’s story, or Ryan Fitzpatrick’s wearing his wedding ring, or Drayton Florence’s family. I love Stevie Johnson – he brings a confidence and a spirit to the Bills. But, as PFT pointed out this week, he almost seemed to sound like one of the Jets. That just doesn’t help, IMHO.

The humble and the humbled. I know they’ll get it back; I’d just prefer a smaller learning curve.

by Luther6 on Nov 7, 2011 10:10 PM EST up reply actions

True. They’re a young team. It might be best that they ease themselves into success. Few deal with instantaneous success well.

by Luther6 on Nov 7, 2011 9:37 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think being the underdog has anything to do with what happened with the Jets

The Bills had NO reason to underestimate the Jets. We were at home and fighting for the lead in the AFC E. Everyone from coaches to players should have given the Jets their best effort. Your first paragraph was much more to the point……the Bills are not ready to play with the big boys yet.

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

If you ask a question you don't want an answer to, expect an answer you don't want to hear.

by Joe P. on Nov 7, 2011 7:57 PM EST reply actions

but we're learning...

heck, instead of August, let’s go back a couple weeks… Most would have said, if we could only split with each of our division foes, we have a chance…. let’s look at the record…

We’ve played, the pats and jests, one game each, and we are 1-1 in the division… hmmmmm….. am I missing something?? Did the world end while I was asleep (or drunk)??

Joe old friend…. We BEAT the Patsies!!!! Get another shot at the Jets in 3 weeks, and some think we can’t hang with the big boys?? Why does NY lead our division now??? ding-ding if you guessed, “because we beat the Pats”….

There’s a changing of the guard in the AFCE right now, and it will be determined between our Bills, and the NYJ… I look forward to the rematch because it will be the real test of whether we’re there or not…. But even IF (notice, big if) it’s not us, it’s finally knocked the Pats to the sideline with the Phish where they belong!!!! Ha!!!!

Optimistic??? Of course I am!! I'm a Bills fan, and as of right now, we are undefeated on the regular season!!!
Things are truly looking up!!!

by Cinga on Nov 7, 2011 8:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I love that we beat the Pats......but the Pats defense is not what it used to be

The Jets are the new big boy on the block. And while those early season victories were great, this is the time of the year when teams start to separate themselves. I wouldn’t be this upset if the Bills had lost a well played game, but they were not even close to competing with the Jets. I hope the Bills can rebound from this loss, but even if they can’t they are still a much better team then last year. Maybe that is enough for this season.

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

If you ask a question you don't want an answer to, expect an answer you don't want to hear.

by Joe P. on Nov 7, 2011 8:33 PM EST up reply actions

Chan admitted to the team not being prepared properly .

"This is a chance to shine some light on the city, They say it’s too cold. I’m going to bring some warmth to it." Marcell Dareus

by matthew62 on Nov 7, 2011 8:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

that may or may not be true.....by saying that he takes the blame instead of

putting it on the players. Why wasn’t the team prepared properly would be a better question

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

If you ask a question you don't want an answer to, expect an answer you don't want to hear.

by Joe P. on Nov 7, 2011 9:04 PM EST up reply actions

A better question than what?

I have low expectations. But high hopes.

by greysquirrel on Nov 8, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

than whatever question was asked to which Chan admitted to not preparing the team properly

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

If you ask a question you don't want an answer to, expect an answer you don't want to hear.

by Joe P. on Nov 8, 2011 6:17 PM EST up reply actions

That’s certainly a fair point. I guess my point was more that “expecting to win” can do a great deal to build confidence, but it has to be predicated on something solid. Expecting to win by itself won’t be enough.

Sadly, I agree that they’re not ready to play with the big boys, though we’d played a lot of very good teams very well until yesterday. It’ll be interesting to see whether things can improve in three weeks.

by Luther6 on Nov 7, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions

Come On Fans!

We lost a game to the jets, that sucks, but its not a sign of the past but a prelude to whats needed to continue this “work in progress”. Chan and his team to me are still the BEST and who’s next? Dallas. Thats where are comments should be at. The loss to Jets wasn’t end of season right? We can and will do better next go-around with the lowly jesters from somewhere near the state of NY. Dang posers!!! Go Bill’s Go Chan, forget the naysayers!

by buffalobacker on Nov 7, 2011 8:27 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

sorry.....I forgot....Go Bills ad nauseum

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

If you ask a question you don't want an answer to, expect an answer you don't want to hear.

by Joe P. on Nov 7, 2011 8:36 PM EST up reply actions

Drink, Drink

The Cool-Aid. Go Bill’s!! ;)

by buffalobacker on Nov 8, 2011 10:58 PM EST up reply actions

Absolutely Agreed

I think the Bills will benefit in the long-run from this loss: now they know what they’re weaknesses are and they can work to improve. They’re a young team with a lot great years ahead of them. It’s an exciting time. As I wrote above, this week they’ll be humbled and focused and back with the chip on their shoulder again.

Go Bills!

by Luther6 on Nov 7, 2011 9:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

how will they benefit from this? It was week 9, so they already know what their weaknesses are – I agree that they’re young and will continue to improve, but that’s independent of the game on Sunday

by JustAskTheAxis on Nov 8, 2011 7:09 AM EST up reply actions

From a learning perspective you pretty much always benefit from a loss. I don’t think you always know your weaknesses, you think you do, but you don’t. I bet Chan thought they were better prepared for what this Jets D was gonna do to them. I also bet he thought they had the answers. I don’t think we went into this game knowing our offense was gonna look like that. Maybe… but I really think if the game were played again next week. The one unit that would show the most improvement is the Bills offense (not saying we win, just that they do stuff differently).

I have low expectations. But high hopes.

by greysquirrel on Nov 8, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

What?

by buffalobacker on Nov 8, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions

On the bright side

I know at the start of the season I predicted the Bills to not the make the play offs. So if we fail to make it I will not be disappointed. I feel we are just missing a few pieces to be a contender. Like deep threat WR…A better secondary…A better OL and DL..I know we are all sick of hear Next Season….But Next Season will be our year to contend from start to finish. If we make the play offs this season…Itll be a nice Xmas present!!

by Jeremy Galton on Nov 8, 2011 10:36 AM EST reply actions

I agree, Jeremy. And when we say, “next season” now, we know for certain that we’re headed in the right direction. Honestly, aside from a deep threat at WR (a healthy Marcus Easley might be sufficient), I’m content with the Bills drafting exclusively on the defensive side of the ball. Watching the Steelers, Ravens, and Jets on Sunday, it’s clear that we’re not in their league. On the flip side, those teams are getting old. The Bills are young, and need to get younger defensively.

by Luther6 on Nov 8, 2011 6:44 PM EST up reply actions

A Few Pieces?

You rattled off I’d say over 11 positions in need of attention. O/L And D/L, Secondary and a WR wow, you forgot a “franchise QB” too. But on the bright side?

by buffalobacker on Nov 8, 2011 10:55 PM EST up reply actions

I’m pretty sure he didn’t mean every single player on the OL, DL, and secondary

"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." - Vince Lombardi

by thrills&bills on Nov 9, 2011 12:57 AM EST up reply actions

I think our DL is great. and our OL only needs depth..

and we have a franchise QB. we need a deep threat WR, a OLB or 2 (pass rushers), and a 3rd round CB. we have Aaron Williams which everyone seems to forget about. with mcgee and drayton playing well, with Leodis being okay, we could use some competition but not a huge need. But back to the OL, how is our DL or OL a position of need ???

Fitzmagic

by tomcs on Nov 9, 2011 10:04 PM EST up reply actions

Cincy

For as long as I live that “game” will bother me. I can’t believe there wasn’t talk of investigating those “refs”. I know you can’t change the past. left my time machine’s lights on and the battery died. It’s non-rechargable, and I can’t replace it because it hasn’t been invented yet. However, a 6-2 record would have us sitting sooo much prettier. The Bills fought the (corrupt) law, and the law (and bangles) won. sigh.

"This is what happens Larry!, This is what happens! "-Walter Sobchak" "Did we give up when the germans bombed pearl harbor!!??"-John Belushi

by BigEasyBillsKrewe on Nov 9, 2011 12:09 PM EST reply actions

I’d still like to know what happened to the Fanpost or Fanshot that was up this week about the reffing after the Jets game. It has been a league-wide issue this entire season, and it sours my enjoyment of the game, period. Doesn’t matter who is playing. If the reffing is blatantly bad, inconsistent, or potentially fraudulent (it’s happened before in pro sports, and very recently as well), it leaves me with very little desire to even watch or care anymore.

So was this another post that just coincidentally disappeared?

Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin. -- stetzwebs
No one circles the waiver wire like the Buffalo Bills!

by thefourwinds on Nov 9, 2011 5:21 PM EST up reply actions