Dolphins 30, Bills 23: Good, Bad, Let's Not Overreact
by Der Jaeger on Dec 20, 2011 9:00 AM EST
in Buffalo Bills Opinion
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The Good: C.J. Spiller. If I were to place Spiller's performance on a scale with Eric Metcalf-esque toy at one end, and Thurman Thomas at the other, Spiller would be far closer to Thomas than Metcalf. Chan Gailey told everyone last year that Spiller's issue was patience, and once he ran with more patience, Spiller's talent would shine through. Gailey was right.
Spiller was the best player on the field not named Reggie Bush - and that's only because Bush ran the ball 13 more times than Spiller. In a tighter game where Buffalo isn't passing 50 times, Spiller gets a few more carries and has his first 100-yard game. Spiller looks like he has potential to be a Marshall Faulk-style of player that gets his yards on big bursts, kills the defense on draws and screens, destroys tackling angles with his speed, plays receiver, and can create offense for others with the attention he gets. This may seems like an overreaction, but don't be surprised if Buddy Nix rides out Fred Jackson's remaining contract, and commits to a Spiller-slash-power back combo in 2013. Spiller is proving each week that he's capable of being a huge part of this offense.
The Bad: Mistakes. The statistics tell the story: 11 penalties for 92 yards. 0-for-11 on third down. Three interceptions. One Tashard Choice fumble on third down that forced Buffalo to punt. A 26-yard field goal miss.
Some penalties are easy to stomach. Erik Pears holding Cameron Wake as he's about to wreck Ryan Fitzpatrick is acceptable. Five penalties in the second quarter alone is unacceptable. I'm not sure Drayton Florence has a spot on this team anymore. For every big play he makes, he breaks even with a pass interference penalty that leads to an opponent score. The third down performance is suffering because of the compression of the Buffalo offense into a 10-yard space, and the penalties don't help, either.
The turning point of the game came early on. With Buffalo playing well early, Gailey faced a 3rd and 1. He called a direct snap to Choice, which he fumbled, which forced a Brian Moorman punt. At that point in the first quarter, the Bills defense was playing well, had forced a turnover, and Spiller had just finished shredding the Dolphins defense en route to a touchdown. A Buffalo score on the next Buffalo drive could've forced the Dolphins into a pass-first mode; the Dave Rayner missed field goal changed the complexion of the game late. Buffalo is making too many mistakes to be a contender.
Let's Not Overreact: Ryan Fitzpatrick. I'll say what I said last week: Fitzpatrick is what he is. He brings better play than Buffalo got out of Trent Edwards and J.P. Losman. He's playing poorly, but he also brings stability to the quarterback position for the first time since Drew Bledsoe played in Buffalo. That stability allows Nix and Gailey to accomplish two things: build the team around Fitzpatrick (who can win games with a good team effort around him), and draft and develop Fitzpatrick's replacement without rushing things.
Fitzpatrick's early-season play complicated things by bringing on unrealistic expectations. His three interceptions on Sunday absolutely killed the team, though the rest of his stat line looked good due to a good performance in the fourth quarter. I understand that Gailey is slowing the game down by possessing the football as much as he can, but Fitzpatrick seems to play better with higher the tempo on offense, as he did in the fourth quarter. Maybe going no-huddle, up-tempo will help. Fitzpatrick hasn't played well since getting crushed by London Fletcher in Toronto. That's also the last good game he played. Though not the difference between franchise quarterback and current performance, one has to wonder how hurt Fitzpatrick is.
Outlook. It would be so much nicer if Buffalo played like San Diego. At least Chargers fans are excited about their late-season run after a horrible October. The facts do remain the facts, though: Buffalo hasn't won since it played in Toronto. And Buffalo's roster is a far cry from San Diego's.
As a bit of an outside observer due to my residence location, the fan and media reaction to Buffalo's downturn could be seen a mile away. As Buffalo went 5-2, the expectations placed on the team were far greater than the talent on the team could perform to. With the Bills crashing to earth, everyone from the General Manager to the administration building secretary are being questioned, with calls for dismissal.
The Bills were never as good as the 5-2 start. They also aren't as bad as the 0-7 streak. The team is young, playing poorly, and without confidence. Denver invades Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday. New England exposed Denver's defense last week. It's up to Fitzpatrick and the Bills to follow suit if they want their sixth win in the team's last home game on Sunday.
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Nice writeup, as always, DJ.
One question: did you understand the penalties that Chan declined? I was at the game so we didn’t get any commentary on them, and it’s always hard to hear the ref.
It seemed like Buffalo should have accepted some of the three penalties that were declined, but maybe I was just misunderstanding things.
You will not need prayers you do not need your soul. You will be in a place not even the. Undead. Walk. --abayarde
let's not underreact for a change
yes fitz is fitz… so lets not stop the pressure, infact, lets increase the pressure on nix to draft a qb in the first 2 rounds on this draft…
his stat line otherwise looked good because he got garbage yards and touchdowns against prevent defense… period
and typical bills… qb sucks… lets find the hit he took roughly around the time he starts sucking… edwards started sucking after the hit by the cardinals player… fitz started sucking after the london fletcher hit… oh! poor boy! got hit!…
meanwhile ben is half broken in his body and still plays every year… brady took the monster hit from dumervil and still played awesome… that’s all we do, excuses for our putrid qbs
by statcruncher on Dec 20, 2011 9:29 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
“edwards started sucking after the hit by the cardinals player…” Actually, he played one of the best games of his career immediately after that game.
“meanwhile ben is half broken in his body and still plays” He threw three interceptions and lost 20-3.
Ron Paul 2012
by BuffaloBlueBlood on Dec 20, 2011 9:35 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
yes ofcourse, quick retort… forget the fact that ben has been injured every year since 2004 and has won 2 superbowls and gone to 3… images of his bloody nose and foot in a boot constantly come to mind….
what was the point of your reply anyway?
by statcruncher on Dec 20, 2011 9:37 AM EST up reply actions
Ben has consistently had one of the best defenses behind him. Ben does a lot but I bet most QBs would look good with that defense.
by J2 on Dec 20, 2011 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And running attack
Bettis, Parker and now Mendenhal-he’s had a consistent ground game.
He’s not asked to be the type of passer Fitz is. Big Ben’s job is to not turn the ball over and extend plays when they need to pick up first downs. They don’t have a throw first/throw equal to run type of approach, and with that D and type of running attack, why would you? He’s great at what he does, but it’s as much about the type of team he’s on as it is that he’s good.
by FrankL on Dec 20, 2011 9:42 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
so you guys are saying… put trent edwards instead of big ben in the superbowl against the cardinals and edwards would have won it too
by statcruncher on Dec 20, 2011 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
I'm saying he would have had a chance to win it, sure
I don’t think Edwards is as good as Big Ben, but I don’t think the success of any winning team (despite what ESPN brainwashes people into believing) has to do so disproportionately with the QB.
So in other words
You don’t think the QB is more important than any other position on the field?? WOW
by fanick82 on Dec 20, 2011 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He didn’t say that. Taking the other guys point to an extreme to invalidate isn’t really convincing. He just means that sometimes we devolve into you have a franchise guy ro you dont, but plenty of guys who are “good enough” got good enough playing on teams with elite defenses and solid olines/running games. They could ahve looked bad elsewhere, never won a superbowl, and never been labelled a “franchise” guy. Ben is one example, if he had ended up ont he Bills, he wasn’t going to any superbowls in those first few years, because he wasn’t the secret to that team. He probably doesn’t earn the moniker of franchise guy either. Eli is antoher QB, whos team got hot and he ended up being in a position to play for a superbowl, but he wasn’t exactly having a franchise year. I think the point is valid, the difference between some guys we regard as great and some guys we regard as journeyman, may be the organization more than the QB. Not in EVERY case, but in some.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 20, 2011 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
yeah didn't say that at all
But if you want to strawman arguments for it.
I’m saying (and then I’ll be done saying it) is that even though it is a more important position than other positions on the field, it is not as
a.) important as people make it out to be
b.) the success of winning teams often doesn’t have as much to do with QBs as folks like to pretend it does; and
c.) Given a better overall team that, yes, a mediocre QB can succeed. In the limited situation of putting Trent Edwards onto the Steelers team in the Super Bowl (particularly the first one with BIg Ben) I thought that they could still win the game.
I feel like I just got FoxNewsed there.
Sorry, I guess we will have to disagree
And you just proved that you don’t feel the QB is the most important position. You just said a guy that is out of football, and has had chances with multiple bad teams, could have won the Super Bowl w/ the Steelers. In the last ten years, only two QB’s who were average have won the Super Bowl, Dilfer and B Johnson. The other winners, Brady, Manning, Manning, Big Ben, Brees, Rodgers. All Top 5-8 QB’s. Dilfer and Johnson had a couple of the best defenses in HISTORY. There is nothing else to discuss. We have a better chance of becoming a good team over the long term by getting a franchise QB than we do having a historically great DEF, especially in the current NFL.
Correlation is not Causation.
Period.
by FrankL on Dec 20, 2011 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The Steelers haven't had a top 10 rushing unit since 2007
And have finished in the bottom half of the league 3 of the last 4 years…
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Didn't say anything about dominant, or top 10
2008: 23rd total, 3.7 yards per carry (SB team)
2009: 19th total, 4.2 yards per carry
2010: 10th total, 4,1 yards per carry (SB team)
2011: 17th total, 4.3 yards per carry
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2010/
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2011/
I didn’t write anything about “top 10.” I wrote consistent. That consistent, reasonably good, running game balanced out very good defenses and okay passing games. (the two super bowl years were nothing to write home about for Big Ben. 17th in ’08 when they had the miracle playoff run, and 14th in 2010 when they faced the Packers). Average stats on both parts of the offense.
My only point was to say that they had consistent running that was, for the most part, commensurate with the rest of their offense. It wasn’t some miracle QB that was propelling them to victory-it was good defense and balanced offense.
What was the point of bringing up Ben Roethlisberger? That he’s a better QB than Fitz? Um.. we know.
Ron Paul 2012
by BuffaloBlueBlood on Dec 20, 2011 9:53 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
the point is i dont want to bail out our qbs with injury excuses
by statcruncher on Dec 20, 2011 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
because one guy plays hurt consistently it’s now the norm?
it doesn’t take a vicious hit to get injured – plenty of people get hit real hard with no bad effects and sometimes the smallest moves get people far more injured.
I’m not about to give Fitz a pass because he’s injured (I don’t think he is) – but you have a poor way of conveying your thoughts
my ways of conveying are just fine…. but you just killed the debate there… something tells me you are not feeling well today
by statcruncher on Dec 20, 2011 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
But Fitz may be injured
I frankly don’t care whether fans are willing to accept the fact that the QB is playing poorly because he is injured. That’s irrelevant. The reality is that if the QB is injured it can significantly impact how well he plays. Look at Big Ben last night. He was not his normal self, and that was a major reason why the Steelers lost to San Fran.
I have no idea whether Fitz has been injured, but the quality of his performance on the field dropped off in a very noticeable fashion after that big hit in Toronto. He went from being the “good Fitz” we all admired up to that point and started becoming the “bad Fitz” who can’t throw the ball accurately downfield, rushes his passes to avoid getting hit again and as a result is often making bad reads, and no longer runs with the ball as often. I am NOT trying to make excuses for him, but rather simply trying to figure out what accounts for this highly visible change.
As I wrote on another thread, Fitz got injured in the next-to-last game in 2010 against the Pats and didn’t tell anyone until later in the week when the pain apparently got too intense to hide any longer. In effect he didn’t want to stop playing and allow someone else to take his place. What we may be looking at is a wounded Fitz. If so, that would account for the sudden change in our QB that has left us all puzzled.
by Macktruck on Dec 20, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
or the hit might have triggered something mentally
i didnt think the sudden change was puzzling… teams figured out that fitz cant throw deep… they decided to be closer to LOS and blitz more often…
fitz started playing poorly when teams started to do that… the hit might have messed up his mental clock more than any injury… now after about 1and half seconds he is panicking and beginning to force throws because he knows they are coming… we would never know because no one will come out and say this…
by statcruncher on Dec 20, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
and very conveniently leave the part where i said “.. every year” and not just yesterday’s game
by statcruncher on Dec 20, 2011 9:39 AM EST up reply actions
Yea, well I was just using the most recent game he played while injured.
Ron Paul 2012
by BuffaloBlueBlood on Dec 20, 2011 10:32 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yep
His best game, the game I bought the Edwards jersey, was the crushing of San Diego the week he came back after the bye.
The Mylar balloon game!
Ron Paul 2012
by BuffaloBlueBlood on Dec 20, 2011 10:38 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
check this
PFR provides the career approximate value (carAV) of NFL players for the past 75-ish years.
(Bruce Smith is 6th)
Here are the quarterbacks drafted in the last thirty years and their values:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/QB-1980-now.htm
With QB’s, There seems to be very little correlation between high picks and carAV. Most other positions possess a much higher correlation, giving the team a better idea of what they are getting. It’s as if the QB position itself does not translate well from college to professional.
Here are all players drafted: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/
Like Fitz or not, he is probably still the best starting option for 2012.
Since Nix has been in office, he hasn’t even really had any QB’s to pick from. 2010 was a bad year for QB, and that may end up including Bradford. 2011 produced Cam Newton, Andy Dalton…Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Kaepernick…the jury’s still out on this class. 2012 will have its share, too, and maybe Nix will grab one, and maybe he’ll do it early, but Fitz still provides the best chance to win in 2012.
Nice find, but the eyeball test says there is a correlation between high picks and carAV, they are much more likely to have a high carAV.
But I think your point is probably more that there is a huge variance. They are more likely to pan out, but its still a crapshoot — they can look like the average 5th round pick in a majority of cases, so its by no means a guarantee. First rounds QBs can bust big time, so its not a bad position to be picky with.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 20, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
Ah, and the average is actually something like a mediocre QB, which is also a decent takeaway. If you just feel like gambling, on average you probably dont improve the team. You need a top top guy. Its rough.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 20, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
Here’s the thing about that: I think the injury that more has to do with the poor performance at QB is the Eric Wood injury. When protections break down too easily, most QBs falter, even Brady. Hell, that’s how you’re supposed to play Brady. I mean, when Fitz had all that protection (not just in sacks allowed, but in hurries and hits as well), he was doing fairly well. Not amazing, but well enough to win.
We always hear talk about the importance of having the best QB ever. But without an actual team around that QB, we’ll be just as screwed. Look at how many superbowl winning teams in the past decade have had bottom-10 defenses. Look at what happened to the Colts without Peyton versus the Steelers without Molestisberger. If we don’t have a competent team, if the only things that work on this team are the starting running backs and 2/3 of the D-line, then we can’t expect to win anything.
Does anyone have the stats for comparison of performances of high-drafted QBs versus Pass-Rushers? I’d like to know which one seems more likely as an effective use of what will likely be a top-10 pick…
by Ian MacPersonoid on Dec 21, 2011 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
… is the Eric Wood injury.
Good point. Look how poorly the NJ Jets played when Mangold was out. Woods out definitely is a contributing factor.
.
When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.
by Buffalo for Eternity on Dec 21, 2011 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
building the team first
You can make a very good case that if fred and kyle and wood were playing, buffalo would not be on this losing streak.fitz has played poorly but he can be fixed……….he forces alot of things because we r losing………….we need to run the ball more with spiller,even with fjx we needed to run a bit more.sometimes chan gets cute passing the ball!!!
The bills must build around fitz and dare i say it….keep g.edwards as d.c…………..get him some olb and another cb.
on offense we need to keep stevie..even if we pay him a little bit more then he is worth.Then go get a big,fast wr….someone who can stretch the field and win jump balls.signing a pass catching te is up on the offseason list of things to do….chandler does not scare anyone.Look what the pats do to teams with there tes and look what teams do to us. every yr we get shreaded by tes……………
I have to think they'd have won 1 or 2 more
but tell that to half the people in Buffalo who have been brainwashed into this “only results matter” and “blame the QB at all costs” mentality.
I could take or leave G. Edwards, so long as who ever they bring is the same type of D Coordinator. I don’t think you can do an overhaul again-but you could use someone who is a bit better. I agree that the bigger problem is personnel.
the bigger problem is personnel.
Not just OLB. DE has been a major disappointment this year. Edwards play has been mediocre and Carrington hasn’t progressed. Kelsay is the Bills best pass rushing DE, but wait, he’s at OLB. Florence obviously beaten too many times, McKelvin and Corner good as gone, McGee still plays well but is always injured.
What has Wannstedt contributed this year? He is LB coach, but you sure can’t tell looking at Batten and Moats, wasn’t he supposed to bring them along? Sheppard has raw talent but makes mistakes that coaching is supposed to correct. Of course we said the same thing about McKelvin a few years ago.
Carrington has looked pretty good this year and our best de is playing nt. People need to realize their job is to take up blocks not b tear up a stat sheet.
"This is a chance to shine some light on the city, They say it’s too cold. I’m going to bring some warmth to it." Marcell Dareus
by matthew62 on Dec 20, 2011 10:25 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Like someone said above, I think people are under-reacting to Fitz
How can the Bills expect to impove as a team with Fitz as your QB. Sure he’s better then Losman and Edwards, but is that something to content with?
Now I’m not saying they should just give up on Fitz, but if they don’t find a real QB prospect to sit for a year or two behind Fitz (not Tyler Thigpen), and they just rely on Fitz for 6 more years, its gonna be a long ride.
K-1 Level Predictions Team
by Fedorable on Dec 20, 2011 9:51 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
He won't be here for 6 years
His contract is only for four, so my guess is he’s done after 3.
You can make your team better by doing just that-making the team better. If you can add players to the D, and they don’t give the 6th most points, 7th most yards (4th most rushing yards), maybe the Offense doesn’t get behind so quickly and they don’t have to go one-dimensional in the second half. Playing with a lead, or at least closer in games, because of an improved D is going to make the offense and the whole team better.
I don’t think Fitz is the long term guy, but I don’t think David Nelson is the long term #2, but you can build up other parts of the offense before you start replacing him. Same with Fitz.
Our D is pretty awful
And we clearly need to fix many different parts.
But I really think our offense is held back by Fitz. Our line is actually not bad, especially with all the injuries.
Our running backs speak for themselves.
Our WR depth is weak, but with a better QB, I think they would look a lot better then they do right now.
Either way, If able, i’d love to see them draft a QB for the future
K-1 Level Predictions Team
Its also hard to put the blame on thE defense when the offense goes 0/25 on third downs against an opponet. That means Zero sustained drives to give the defense a break.
"This is a chance to shine some light on the city, They say it’s too cold. I’m going to bring some warmth to it." Marcell Dareus
by matthew62 on Dec 20, 2011 10:22 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah sure, this game
But on the whole a better defense is going to make a better team.
When the D was getting turnovers and such in the first 6 weeks of the season, the Offense was scoring plenty of points and sustaining drives-because they were getting more chances.
When the D can’t get the Titans off the field in the 3rd Quarter, the team ends up behind multiple scores in the fourth quarter and the whole 1D problem starts over.
It’s not that i don’t think the offense, or Fitz, have their problems-I just think the problems are sufficiently worse than the problems on the offense that they should be addressed first.
So say we pick 8
And on the board are RG3, Barkley, Upshaw, and Floyd. Who do you take?
Good question.
Unfortunately, I don’t know the particulars around any of them so I can’t say. I’m not a big college guy, and I wouldn’t pretend to be a scout and know who would be the best of the bunch.
And since I can’t speak intelligently on which of these guys is the best, by how much, and how they compare to the people on the team currently, I won’t hazard a guess.
Upshaw is a guy i really like, but not that high. Coples or Kirkpatrick might be considerations though for the defense. I know Coples i big, but I don’t care, hes the most athletic and most proven pass rusher of the bunch. Figure it out new defensive coordinator.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 20, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
But
if you are the GM, and through your scouting you feel like RG3 and Barkley will be franchise QB’s, and even if Coples and Dre are there, who do you take? You HAVE to take the QB. Even if he sits for the year, which I am a proponent of. The most he is giong to get paid is between $15-$20 for 4-5 years, so it doesn’t affect us financially. That is the point I am trying to make. If the guy is there, you have to pull the trigger.
I agree, if you think there is a franchise QB available, you take him over just about anyone. Absolutely, without question. Even if the front office thinks Ryan Fitzpatrick is “good enough” they said that last year and still said they’d be dumb not to take an elite QB.
But if the top 3 QBs are gone and you are picking 8-10, do you take a raw prospect like Tannehill or a guy who has noticeably struggled of late like Landry Jones? Or do you take a top defender / wideout? This is trickier. You might think you can trade up later for a QB, we’ve been rumored to be interested in that before, but it never happened. Or, we just stockpile our BPA another year and hope we can get a QB later on. Cause a non elite first round QB isn’t gonna help anything except sell hope. Lots of front offices settle on their qb of the future (see Losman, J.P.) to ameliorate the fanbase, sell tickets and buy time. But I don’t want our front office to do that, and to their credit, I think they are making the tougher choice to not take a guy the past two drafts. Cause it basically resets their clock and gets folks off their back for 18 months.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 20, 2011 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
I'd take Barkley for sure.
I’d settle for RG3 lol
Ron Paul 2012
by BuffaloBlueBlood on Dec 20, 2011 5:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
pretty sure Fitz's new contract was for seven years.
Please base your arguments in provable facts instead of pulling stuff out of your rear. -CanadianBillsFan- This is why talk is cheap because the supply always exceeds the demand.
Per: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7160727/ryan-fitzpatrick-buffalo-bills-agrees-new-contract
“The extension is valued at $59 million over six years, including $24 million in guaranteed money, team and league sources told ESPN senior NFL analyst Chris Mortensen.”
.
When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.
by Buffalo for Eternity on Dec 21, 2011 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
Content isn’t something people feel. But there also seems to be “contempt” and that’s not exactly the right approach either.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 20, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
spillar
I agree. I think he is the real deal and will only get better. I also think we will match up well against the Broncos, especially in a cold snowy stadium. Stack the box.
CC Infantino
Until Fitz can consistantly hit open receivers down the field, I won’t have a warm fuzzy feeling regarding the qb play. Even average qb’s in the NFL hit those open receivers. The cb’s play tight and are willing to jump routes because they know Fitz can’t hit deep consistantly, which also makes cb’s vulnerable to double moves. Hit those open wr’s, the misery all goes away.
I honestly wonder if he has a depth perception problem and needs some corrective measure. Like Charlie Sheen in that baseball movie, what was it, something Bull?
Major League
Another season (maybe), another year getting on the roller coaster. Hope the ride lasts more than 16 games :)
by syrbillsfan on Dec 20, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
I agree, we saw him do this in games and thats whent he offense got blown wide open. The other team had to start respecting everything and that led to our great performances. New England comes to mind as Jones beat a CB in press coverage for a long TD. But I feel like this was happening earlier in the season, either because he had slightly more time to hold the ball against the blitz or because his reads were better or because the receivers were more consistent or because he was for some reason playing more accurate. But probably a combination of all these factors.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 20, 2011 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
slightly more time to hold the ball against the blitz or because his reads were better or because the receivers were more consistent or because he was for some reason playing more accurate.
Almost as many “ORs” as a Viking ship…
"Hallelujah, Noel, be it heaven or hell, the Christmas we get, we deserve"- Greg Lake
It should probably be ANDs.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 20, 2011 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
Spiller the Thriller
Good comparison with him and Faulk. You can see the improvement as he now is setting up his blocks and being patient.
Fitz is what he is an average QB at best, it seems he is either hot or cold with no in-between. I agree his stats in the game were over blown due to Miami playing prevent and the succes of the screen passes.
The way the rules in the NFL are a 300 yard passing game has become the norm. Fitz putting up 300 last week in a losing effort has become normal around the NFL.
.
"I wouldn't ever set out to hurt anyone deliberately unless it was important -- like a league game."
Dick Butkus
RE: Fitz
I think there is a tendency to look at Fitz through the microscope of only the last two years with Chan. He’s been in the league for 6 years. He has 66 TD’s and 61 ints. He’s thrown 1600+ passes. The sample size is adequate. He will never be a top 10 QB in the league.
He has major limitations in throwing the ball down the field (in terms of distance but more importantly in terms of accuracy down the field). The Bills have lost 7 games not because of Fitz, but do people really believe he could win a playoff game on the road even with a good team around him? I don’t.
The Bills should not settle for adequate QB play. At the most important position, they should strive for a great QB.
by J09 on Dec 20, 2011 10:51 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Spiller has definitely shown improvement this year. He’s averaging 5.0 yards per carry, and he is a legitimate home run threat. Anybody who is calling him a bust at this point isn’t looking at him objectively.
How Drayton Florence is still on the roster is beyond me. For every pass interference call he gets flagged for, he makes up for it by letting a receiver blow right past him for a long score. He stopped making big plays last year.
Fitzpatrick is just okay. Nothing more. While he might be better than Trent Edwards and JP Losman, that’s not much of an accomplishment. Winning with Fitz means we need a complete team effort. There will never be a game that he wins single-handedly the way a Peyton Manning or Tom Brady can. I hope we can grab one of the hot QB prospects in the first round next year and start grooming him for the future. I wouldn’t immediately throw Fitz away, but he does need to be replaced at some point if this team ever wants to reach the playoffs and a Super Bowl.
by SiriusRed on Dec 20, 2011 10:58 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Another "Good" item
I agree that Spiller’s game was the obvious choice for the “good” pick this week, but not that far behind was the play of our two rookie CB’s. Both Aaron Williams and Justin Rogers are looking pretty impressive for rookies. That’s especially true for Rogers, who just started to get the chance to play CB the last couple of weeks and clearly looks as if he belongs out there. His kickoff returns are also impressive and put on display his 4.4 speed (which will enable him to cover some of the faster WR’s in the league once he masters the technical stuff he didn’t get in his college days).
We may be set for starting CB’s for some time to come.
yep, that rookie tandem is lookn good. Still need another outside starting corner tho, assuming Rogers will mostly be a nicklebk
I think Rogers will be a boundary CB given his speed. He does need to build himself up a bit in the offseason program, tho.
I like Rogers as a boundary corner too
He seems a bit thin to me though. I’d like him to bulk up only if he retains his speed though. And I’d still consider a 3-4 round corner to add to the stable. But he’s played well.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft a Pass Rusher in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
I’ve read that Rogers plans to bulk up a little this offseason. And yes, a mid-round CB makes sense if they can find a good one — but there are so many other needs.
DeQuan Menzie makes sense to me if he's around in the 4th
Kind of similar to a Hairston/Searcy pick: could help right away depending on the situation. He’s covered some of the best athletes in the country, has good size and speed, and plays the ball well.
I also think Buffalo could use another starter from free agency. Tracey Porter would work, though I’m not particularly tied to anyone.
I think the appropriate mix would be Williams and UFA starter, with Rogers, McKelvin, and a rookie to battle for the nickel and dime positions. I don’t see a spot for Florence, and McGee is too unreliable due to injuries.
I like the idea of bringing in a UFA corner in order to get the appropriate match-ups. For the sake of the argument, let’s say Nix brings in Porter. I like Williams and Rogers, but I wouldn’t want to ruin their confidence against #1 receivers. Porter takes the #1 receiver, Williams takes the #2. If we assume that Rogers takes #3 and McKelvin takes #4, that’s the right match-up of Bills talent and opposition receiving talent. And the rookie would do what Rogers is doing now. And it would cost Buffalo free agent money and a mid-round pick to get the mix right.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft a Pass Rusher in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
I’ll go along with that, but my instinct tells me that Rogers is going to develop faster than we might expect and could be a starter as early as next year. His basic athletic ability is off the charts, and he seems to catch on very fast (he is already a better CB than McKelvin, which is why he is ahead of Leo on the depth chart). That might impact the need for a FA.
this is an assumption
he is already a better CB than McKelvin, which is why he is ahead of Leo on the depth chart
perhaps you can infer this thought, but the reality is, that these games don’t count for anything more than as a chance to analyse our current roster, and get inexperienced players some reps. i am not in any way endorsing McKelvin, nor am I discounting Rogers. I am simply saying, that you are making an assumption, which COULD be correct, but isn’t inherently correct.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Dec 20, 2011 7:54 PM EST up reply actions
Rogers moved in front of McKelvin three weeks ago when the Bills still had an outside chance to make the playoffs. The basic story was that the coaches lost patience with McKelvin. He can stay in position with the receiver he is covering, but then fails to make the play once the ball arrives, leading to a reception. What is the value of having a CB like that? It’s interesting that opposing teams have NOT been throwing to the guy Rogers is covering very much when you would imagine they would want to pick on a rookie CB, and that’s because he makes sure his guy is not open. When tested he has made the play most of the time. At this point, that makes him a better CB than McKelvin.
It’s interesting that opposing teams have NOT been throwing to the guy Rogers is covering very much when you would imagine they would want to pick on a rookie CB, and that’s because he makes sure his guy is not open
it’s also untrue. Rogers surely wouldn’t be knocking down passes, or just barely missing interceptions, if they weren’t targeting his man.
I understand your stance. Rogers is better than McKelvin, to you. Your evidence is weak at best. One is a former 1st round pick, with multiple years of NFL experience, who admittedly has lost confidence, either in himself, or in the staff. Rogers, is a rookie, with 3 games of experience, on a defense held together by shear will, and will alone. It can’t be hard to shine out there, when all you are asked to do, is cover the 3rd WR, while the 1st and 2nd WRs and TEs get targeted. Like i said: In no way am i endorsing one over the other, nor am I saying that Rogers isn’t a better prospect… I am just pointing out we don’t know what he is, we haven’t seen him, we are playing for nothing, and we are starting just about anyone, anywhere. I just prefer to leave the assumptions at the door, and accept that this is just a chance to further develop and study our current roster, prior to next year’s offseason. Getting a little “jump-start” if you will. You can read into as far as you like. You could totally be right. Or, you could be totally off base. We won’t know for a bit, but I can understand your willingness to crown Rogers as the guy McKelvin never was, or will be. I prefer to stay the course, and see what happens. I think if McKelvin’s days are numbered, we will know before next season begins.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Dec 21, 2011 2:33 AM EST up reply actions
I agree
But here’s my underlying thought process on bringing in an UFA: with all the high powered passing offenses, I wouldn’t want either Williams or Rogers to get the JD Williams effect. Eg: being asked to do way more than he was ready to, and losing confidence after getting beat a ton.
When Buffalo plays Houston next year, I’d rather have Porter or Ross man-up against Andre Johnson, than ruin the confidence of Williams or Rogers. Johnson will destroy any of the three, but at least Porter or Ross is established and can recover mentally.
The same can be said for the Jets with Burress, the Dolphins with Marshall, the Cards and Fitzgerald, all of who Buffalo plays. All those receivers have big days against Williams or Rogers.
I’d rather have Williams against Holmes and Rogers matched up with the Jets 3rd receiver. Or Williams against Hartline and Rogers against Bess. Or
Williams against Breaston and Rogers against the Cards 3rd receiver. And Williams against Walter and Rogers against the Texans 3rd receiver. That way, both Williams and Rogers get lots of playing time, but nothing that they can’t handle.
Overall, I’d feel better about Williams playing a season as the #2 and Rogers as the nickel. It also creates competition, as Williams is fighting to be the #1 corner, Rogers is fighting to be the #2, etc. I’m not a believer in giving jobs to players in the off-season, a la the Jauron era thinking.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft a Pass Rusher in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
That makes a lot of sense. But of course in the current NFL the practice is to throw younger players into the fire because the reality is that you may not have them more than four years. It will ultimately depend on what Williams and Rogers look like in the eyes of the coaching staff in training camp. But the Bills are down in numbers in regard to CB’s and bringing in a short-term FA might be wise.
i am officially a huge fan of aaron williams. i think hes the best young player on this football team. he can light people up in the run game and has very good change-of-direction skills in coverage. only thing that might hold him back is his straight line speed
Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.
would there be riots in the streets of Buffalo...
if the Nix chooses not to re-sign Freddie Jackson and goes with Spiller instead? I love Spiller but man, Jackson was in the conversation for MVP…
Like the riots in San Diego when the Chargers let Brees go for Rivers?
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft a Pass Rusher in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
That play with Choice was ridiculous
Run Brad Smith if you are going to run the Wildcat. Chan’s playcalling has been baffling the past few months.
How is the Erik Pears’ multitude of holding penalties acceptable? He got toasted and had to hold. That wouldn’t be acceptable to me.
I think it’s a wee bit premature to start talking about letting Jackson walk because of Spiller. He’s had two solid rushing efforts, buoyed by some productive draws. There have been some impressive runs, runs we haven’t seen from him before, but he’s still not overly productive as a runner. And in the passing game, he still hasn’t made a huge impact in terms of big plays. He’s been a possession type receiver, actually. His longest catch of the year is still just 19 yards, which he accomplished Sunday.
I’d like to see a lot more out of him before I’d be wiling to let Jackson walk if I were the Bills. Spiller is not and probably never will be a between the tackles runner, an area Jackson has success in. Spiller has yet to prove he’s a big play threat as a receiver like Jackson did frequently all year. What Spiller has shown is the speed to get to the corner against DE’s and LB’s, but we need to see A LOT more, IMO. I’m happy he’s starting to show some skills and make some plays, but overall he’s got a ways to go.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Dec 20, 2011 2:52 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
someday, you may have to eat these words, friend.
Spiller is not and probably never will be a between the tackles runner, an area Jackson has success in.
Those very same draws that you mention… were between the tackles. He is surely a better edge runner, but I don’t understand, and have never understand why you harbor so much distaste for the kid. You seem to think he lacks the capability to be anything but a quick gimmicky runner, even though he has shown abilities otherwise, both in college, and in limited action in the NFL.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Dec 20, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Kurupt is just upset because i was right on Spiller
haha totally joking. But yeah i agree with ThaRealTruth.
You are now Watching The Throne.
oh, he and I have disagreed on Spiller since day one.
I just hope he continues to make me right, as well. hahaha.
K has had validity to his view, until recently, and by no means has his small period of production, a full fledged answer to the question… BUT it sure does help show that those of us who have maintained some faith in the kid, could end up being the “right” ones in this case.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Dec 20, 2011 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
I don't have any distaste for him
He had been a bad football player for just about his entire NFL career and showed next to nothing. It’s nice to see him starting to make some plays, but it’s not like he’s out there dominating the NFL right now. I want to see more from him, especially on runs that aren’t out of a spread. I
Maybe it’s just semantics or whatever, but I don’t consider draw plays or even runs out of a shotgun to be true between the tackle type runs. I want to see if he can handle taking handoffs out of the I or single back sets without the shotgun, or if he can make something out of nothing like Jackson has been so adept at. I just don’t believe he has those abilities, and would really like to see if he does or not.
Honestly, I don’t think he’s proven anything to determine he’s an every down back yet. Maybe he’s proven he can do some things with added work, but can he handle a traditional role? If the Bills were up a score late in the game, could he salt away a lead? I think the team is going to need to use him like a Sproles going forward. Give him a handful of carries, but really work to get him the ball in the passing game.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
I want to see if he can handle taking handoffs out of the I or single back sets without the shotgun, or if he can make something out of nothing like Jackson has been so adept at.
you and me both. I am curious if Chan is even familiar with these packages. I can’t fathom how we don’t consider using a formation where Fitz gets added protection, not added WRs.
As far as every down back- they are few and far between. What I will say, is he improved on pass pro, but there are better options, and that if he can be productive on 1st and 2nd, I will gladly save third down for Choice, or Fred. CJ can be a WR, or…. maybe just maybe, chan might consider running both Fred AND CJ out on the field, in split backs… at the same time. Another monumental concept that the “offensive genius” has not employed since the first two weeks of last season, when they were trying to show off Marshawn, and get a big bad whopping 4th rounder for him. The number of roles this kid COULD take on, has already sort of been shown. I don’t know that i WANT him to be a “traditional” back, when he has the ability to be much more. He is explosive, with decent hands, and the ability to make guys miss, and seems to be getting better at breaking tackles to some degree as well. He could be just as good as many backs have been. The potential is certainly there, and I don’t see how he can be faulted for the system, or lack of opportunities, when he has clearly made improvement with limited reps.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Dec 21, 2011 2:43 AM EST up reply actions
The first Pears penalty was acceptable since he got beat. The facemask wasn’t.
I am OK with Chan’s play-calling for the most part.
How is Spiller not overly productive as a runner? 91 yards on 12 carries in a game where Buffalo called 47 passes is pretty productive.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft a Pass Rusher in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
i dont think DJ is talking about straight up replacing jackson with spiller. i think hes talking about replacing jackson with some bruiser, which allow for CJs role to naturally increase without him technically being a feature back. i dunno maybe i misunderstood. either way i think its a bit early to think about that, as well
Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.
That play with Choice was ridiculous Run Brad Smith if you are going to run the Wildcat. Chan’s playcalling has been baffling the past few months
This is rec’d. What has happened to the Brad Smith wildcat that was so successful on 3rd and short earlier in the year?
Check out http://mocknfldrafts.blogspot.com/
by Billsdownunder on Dec 20, 2011 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
Spiller?
To me, Spiller is both the good and the “Let’s not overreact”. He had a very good game. Now let’s see him do it again, and again. Then, let’s see him do it in important games with the teams season on the line. Then, let’s see him carry them to wins. Then I’ll believe that everyone who says he was a bad pick should eat crow. Until then, take a deep breath.
Thank you thank you thank you thank you sireric for bringing the furious punching cat back into my life. - poz
by bluecollarbuffalo on Dec 20, 2011 2:57 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Now let’s see him do it again, and again. Then, let’s see him do it in important games with the teams season on the line
Case in point, one Ryan Fitzpatrick. Everyone was anointing him “Fitzmagic” and, not so magically, he’s turned into Fitztragic.
"Hallelujah, Noel, be it heaven or hell, the Christmas we get, we deserve"- Greg Lake
Nice post as always
DJ, you have stated in the past that you believe Buffalo are a pass rusher away from being competitive. Now you state that the Bills may let Fred Jackson go after next year. I am happy to go with making this team competitive before bringing in franchise QB. However I believe the time could be this draft.
My question to you is, if the Bills could get the right price. Lets say, their 2nd round pick + Fred. Should they trade back into the first round and get both a QB (there are 5 good prospects going this year & they should have a shot at 2 or 3 of them with their current draft pick) and a pass rusher (grades currently vary from mid 1st round to early 2nd for the best OLBs) when the opportunity, on the surface anyway, appears ripe. Thus making this team competitive & gaining a potential franchise QB at the same time?
Check out http://mocknfldrafts.blogspot.com/
I'm not sure the draft has the impact pass rushers to make that work this year
Unless Nick Perry declares, but I don’t see him as Nix’s type of player.
And Jackson, regardless of what Bills fans think, doesn’t have that much value. No one is going to trade much for a 30-year-old running back. My off-season plan would have three parts:
Part one- Stabilize. This includes re-signing Stevie Johnson, Bryan Scott, Demetrius Bell, and Chad Rinehart. I’d also pay Fitzpatrick’s bonus and keep him. This ensures that no new holes are created this off-season.
Part two- Plug holes. This is mainly free agency. First need is a cornerback, with Tracey Porter and Aaron Ross as the targets. I’d consider going after Anthony Spencer if the price didn’t go too high, and maybe take a look at Ahmad Brooks. Jarret Johnson would also be on my radar. I’d kick the tires on Mike McGlyn as a swing C/G, and I’d think hard about Ryan Diem over Erik Pears. I’d make an effort to acquire either John Carlson or Martin Rucker at tight end. I’d probably steer clear of Vincent Jackson and Dwayne Bowe, mainly because free agent wide receivers can be huge busts.
Realistically, I would look to come out of free agency with Porter, McGlynn, and Carlson, with maybe Johnson or Spencer depending on price.
Part three- build. My draft would look like this:
1.) Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M
2.) Devin Thomas, OLB/DE South Carolina
3.) Cam Johnson, OLB/DE Virginia
4.) DeQuan Menzie, CB Alabama
4.) Armond Armstead, DE/DT USC
5.) Marcel Jones, OT Nebraska
5.) Derek Moye, WR Penn State
6.) Mason Cloy, C Clemson
7.) Mikhail Marinovich, OLB/DE Syracuse
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft a Pass Rusher in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
wow
I like it! I agree with you about the pass rushers, it looks very thin (especially for Nix prototype sizes) unless Coples fell to the Bills but then there is still a need at OLB as he would be DE I’d think. I like Tannehill a lot and think he will climb the boards pretty fast from here-on out but if Barkley fell to the Bills (which I am currently predicting) would you still take Tannehill or switch to Barkley? As for Devin Thomas I don’t know much about him. What do you know about Jarvis Jones? I’ve read him as an option as well either 1st or 2nd round although he may be too small for Nix’s liking? I personally like Lavonte David as an option in the 2nd round but he may end up at the back end of the first round if his stock rises and he is also relatively small.
Check out http://mocknfldrafts.blogspot.com/
by Billsdownunder on Dec 20, 2011 11:25 PM EST up reply actions
Barkley will struggle in Buffalo with the wind and weather. He’s a perfect dome or warm weather QB. If both QB’s were available with Buffalo’s pick, I’d still take Tannehill.
I don’t know if Jones is a fit for Buffalo’s defense at his size. Unless he shows Von Miller-esque play with his burst and leverage in the off-season underclassmen game, I’m not sure he’s a fit.
Lavonte David is a 4-3 weakside linebacker and I don’t think he has a spot in Buffalo’s defense.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft a Pass Rusher in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
great thanks
I would agree with you about Jones’s size. Doesn’t seem to fit the prototype.
Check out http://mocknfldrafts.blogspot.com/
by Billsdownunder on Dec 21, 2011 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
I was okay with that...until
Martin Rucker?!?! What? He of the zero career catches? Maybe you meant Martellus Bennett? Fred Davis would be a great target at TE. Jermichael Finley is also going to be a FA, but I think he’d want a big deal and isn’t worth nearly what he’ll expect. I’d target Davis over him without a doubt. I think Davis is a better receiver anyhow, with Finley’s hands being pretty terrible.
I like the thought of going after Carlson. He’s a solid all-around player, with good receiving skills. Unfortunately, he seems to be a pretty big injury risk…
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
I projected Rucker a bit
I think he’s got some really good qualities, and he’s playing behind some good tight ends. Carlson might be an injury risk, as you said. I think Buffalo wouldn’t have to break the bank for him, though. I like the idea of Carlson in-line with Chandler as the move tight end.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft a Pass Rusher in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
The Bills have chewed up QBs for the last ten years........
…….like a pit bull tears up a stray cat running through the backyard.
Until we can finally field a quality team on both sides of the ball around a QB, it just doesn’t matter.
Drew, JP, Edwards, Fitz………. who is next? All of these QBs would have been “efficient” or maybe even better if we had a defense.
Which we don’t.
Which is why we don’t want to draft a QB with our 1st rounder so he can end up like the players list above. Or David Carr, Sam Bradford, Leaf, etc. Insert poor bastard who got drafted to a crappy team.
"There is not a loser in this room." Marv Levy.
by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Dec 20, 2011 9:53 PM EST reply actions
Or, Buffalo could do what Green Bay and San Diego did
Draft a QB now, and plan to have him play in 2-3 years. In that time, Buffalo has 2-3 more years worth of draft picks on the team, and the team isn’t crappy anymore. Then the QB is ready, and takes over a good team.
It works, and it’s what Buffalo should do.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft a Pass Rusher in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
Do you think this missed FG marks the end of Rayner in Buffalo?
and is it time to look for someone else or are you fine with Lindel coming back for a few more years?
Please base your arguments in provable facts instead of pulling stuff out of your rear. -CanadianBillsFan- This is why talk is cheap because the supply always exceeds the demand.
I never thought Rayner had a future in Buffalo before the kick
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft a Pass Rusher in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
I've been thinking.....
You have the good and the bad….so they balance out. But you only have “Let’s not overreact”. Where is the balance here? Shouldn’t you have a “We’re so screwed” or “It’s time to panic” part of your post?
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
I believe that the Let’s Not Overreact section goes both ways…“Let’s not overreact, this isn’t as bad as we think” and also “Let’s not overreact, this isn’t as good as we think”. That would be the balance.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
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