Let me start by saying that I cant root for the Bills to lose. It really does not matter though as they are riddled with injuries, and are playing poorly at the moment, so I feel like there is a great chance that they lose out. With that in mind I have like many of you already started to look at the draft and where we might be picking next year.
It is early and so much can change in the last few weeks, but I wanted to put something out there that might clarify where we are now as far as draft position and what games have an effect on where we could end up. MRW has been giving us a good weekly update and currently has us at #10 just behind the Dolphins at #9.
I will go on record as saying that IMO we will lose out (as will the Dolphins) and finish the year in a tie with our AFC East rivals. In a crucial year that could see one of our teams getting a franchise QB and the other just barely missing out I thought it deserved a closer look into how things could go. I think that we will end up picking #7 or #8 just in front or just behind our fishy rivals. What will determine this outcome as MRW has been pointing out is: Weakest record, Weakest SOS, Divisional, Conf. record, and a coin flip. IMO we will end the year tie on the first two tie breaks and the Divisional record will give us the upper hand on next years draft.
Lets take a look at some factors that will end up putting us in a tie. First of all I think both teams will lose out and finish the year with 5-11 records. Secondly the strength of schedule is currently in Miami's favor. It comes down to the two teams that we play that they dont and vice versa. We played the Titans and Bengals (currently 15 wins between them), while they played the Texans and Browns (currently 14 wins between them). All the other team we both played so they are a wash. This bears watching though because IMO the Titans and Bengals could only get one win between them over the next two weeks. The Bengals play Arizona (winners of thier last 4 games) and the Ravens. While the Titans (just lost to the Colts) play Jacksonville and Houston. If the Bengals and Titans can win two of these games then Miami will likely pick before us. On the other hand if they lose 3 of the 4 we have a great shot at finishing tie with Miami on the SOS. The Texans play the Colts and the Titans and should win both of their games, while the Browns play the Ravens and Pittsburg and will likely lose out. If all this happens then we would tie Miami on SOS at the end of the year and this would move us to the next tie breaker. Our Divisional record will be 1-5 if we lose out, while Miami's record will be 2-4 if they lose out. This tie break goes to us and would put us ahead of Miami. I dont know about you but I will be rooting for the Texans and Browns to win and the Bengals and Titans to lose. On a side note rooting for the Bengals to lose could help the Jets get that last playoff spot. URGH! Another game that could effect us is the Jacksonville Titans game. If the Titans loose this game it not only helps our SOS record with Miami but it would put Jacksonville in a position to win out giving them a final record of 6-10 and dropping them down in the draft to around #9. It is possible that we could draft as high as #4 if TB wins a game, Jacksonville wins out, the Browns win a game, and we tie Miami on the SOS. Some of that just is not going to happen though. IMO we have a real good shot at drafting #6,#7, or #8.
This is how I see the draft looking next year.
0-16 1-15 They will take Luck, but I dont know what will happen with Manning.
#2 Vikings 2-14 (OT) M. Kalil will be a no brainer.
#3 Rams 2-14 (WR) J. Blackmon will give Bradford the help he needs.
#4 Browns 4-12 another reason to root for the browns to win one more game is they could trade down from this spot as most think they want a (RB) and could get him later in the draft. I look for this spot to be traded to a QB needy team if the Browns do end up picking this high. If they do end up winning one of their last two they would drop to # 7 or #8 and #5 --#7 would all move up one spot. All win win for us if they win a game, but back to reality. In the end I think the Browns trade down with Miami, Washington, KC, or Seattle, and take T. Richardson.
#5 T.B. 4-12 (CB) M. Claiborn is the first CB off the board.
#6 Jacksonville 5-11 (DE) Q. Coples will be the pick not a QB.
#7 Bills 5-11 (QB) RGIII or M. Barkley whichever is still available.
#8 Miami 5-11 (QB) IMO Miami is the team that trades up with the Browns and they get RGIII.
#9 Washington 6-10 In a perfect world I would hope that Wash. beats out Miami in the trade up with the Browns and they take Barkley. Leaving us RGIII at #7. In this post I think they trade this pick to the Colts for P. Manning. The Colts then take (CB) D. Kirpatrick.
#10 Panthers 6-10 (WR) A Jeffery.
A couple questions that I would like your oppinions on.
Who do you want if both RGIII and Barkley are there?
Who is your pick if all three top QB's are gone, along with Blackmon, Kalil, and Claiborne?