Dropped Passes A Recent Theme For Buffalo Bills
Amidst a five-game losing streak, Buffalo Bills fans are searching for answers. One of the themes of the past week-plus has been that quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't getting help from his receivers.
There's good circumstantial evidence to support that theory. Stevie Johnson's highly-publicized drop in Week 12 has already been mythicized into a drop that cost the team a win, and on Sunday, three noticeable drops (one by Naaman Roosevelt and two by C.J. Spiller) helped contribute to a lackluster offensive effort.
That got fans thinking: how unreliable have the Bills been in that department? The answer: they've been pretty reliable. Bills receivers have dropped just 17 passes through 12 games, according to Stats, Inc. - that's tied for the sixth-lowest total in the league.
Let's open this up for discussion: Buffalo's receivers have, by and large, been a point of contention this season. They've been productive, but they've also had depth issues, and there's also a perceived lack of talent. Is this an area that the Bills should consider upgrading in the off-season - even if, as a group, they've proven themselves fairly reliable?
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Just depends
on who you think comes back. I dont think we know if Easley is coming back or if we are going to resign Parrish.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 6, 2011 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
yep – I wouldn’t count on Easley coming back, or really even doing anything once he does – he was never healthy in college and he had one good season in 4 years…
by JustAskTheAxis on Dec 6, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
I didn’t think he was injured in college. thought he was a walk-on who just didn’t make the field until his last year.
Never confuse movement with action.
~Ernest Hemingway
by NolaBillsFan on Dec 6, 2011 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
I think we need an upgrade period
we can’t count on any of these coming back or staying healthy. that’s been a plague for us for a while now. i do like brad smith though. give him a full offseason and TC where he has a defined focus on this team and he will be really shocking. when it comes to the draft i think you go bpa in the 1st. for us, there’s really no “set” position. well except for running back. although i do Billieve FredEx is trade bait first thing this offseason. we have a young group of unproven talent there, one of which we paid a lot of money to get early. i think coming into his 3rd yr he has to start. otherwise you wasted a 1st rd pick on a guy that never materializes. no fault of fred’s, he just did what we all knew he was capable of doing. i just think it’s time to part ways and trade for a 1st-2nd rd pick for him. with him going on IR his stock probably dropped and we will likely settle for a 2nd or 3rd. that potential pick could very well help us in other areas on this team. there’s my 2 cents, now I’m late for work! Gotta love dem BILLS!!!
WR - Upgrade via draft
I do my own Bills mock draft every season and I agree they need to upgrade the talent in the WR corps in 2012. My current 2012 Bills draft plan is below:
Round 1: SLB Courtney Upshaw/SLB Brandon Lindsey/JLB Brandon Jenkins
Round 2: JLB Melvin Ingram/WR Nick Toon/WR Dwight Jones
Round 3: JLB Vinny Curry/SLB Andre Branch/WR Marvin McNutt, Jr
Round 4: CB Donnie Fletcher/OT Matt McCants/CB Leonard Johnson
Round 4: OT Tony Bergstrom/CB Omar Bolden/OT Mitchell Schwartz
Round 5: C Michael Brewster/C William Vlachos/C Quinton Saulsberry
Round 6: DE Derek Wolfe/FB Cody Johnson/DE DaJohn Harris
Round 6: FB Joe Halahuni/DE Christian Tupou/FB Drake Dunsmore
Round 7: WR Jordan White/WR Rishard Matthews/WR Jarrett Boykin
by wpod on Dec 6, 2011 10:39 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Thanks, frcorny
Not a problem. BTW, I turn 50 this month so I’m not sure I would qualify as ‘son’ but I’m getting so that I appreciate anything that makes me feel young again. Thanks!
wpod (Clark)
I like McNutt alot. I think hes be defintely worth a 3rd rounder.
Especially with two 4th rounders.
Fitz = M(C)²
"Lets Go Buff! a! lo!"
I got a TROPPer in the car, uhh!!
bflo
Yeah; I like McNutt a lot, too. Of course I would be just fine with either Toon or Dwight Jones in Round 2 as well. Just agreeing with the question in the article, not so much that drops are a bigger problem than on other teams, but more just that the Bills could really use a tall, fast, dynamic and talented WR in the corps. They need someone to scare the opposing DC away from just automatically calling for M2M coverage. The spread offense is a good strategy for this team but they need more talent in their wideouts.
Yup, I agree.
I mean it all depends on whose available when were picking and what our “Big Board” looks like…
but I wouldnt mind LB/CB in the first two rounds.
A player like McNutt in the 3rd.
The 4th rounders can be split between Oline, Dline or another “Moats-like” pick.
5th would be the OIine, Dline or “Moats” that we didnt get in the 4th.
6th-7th BPA.
Fitz = M(C)²
"Lets Go Buff! a! lo!"
I got a TROPPer in the car, uhh!!
Ha
What is a “Moats” type pick? Haven’t heard that one before.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 6, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
A deep threat would open things up
Anyone who could draw the coverage. They don’t even have to be great. DC’s have recognized that they can keep both safeties up close and press the short routes, forcing Fitz to throw balls to tight spaces. The Bills lucked out on a few throws last week on catches that seemed very well defended.
And Spiller needs to dedicate the offseason to improving his receiving game.
I think a lot of what we do in the offseason at the position will depend on Easley
Will depend on Easley’s health and future. I’m willing to bet he would have taken Jone’s starting spot in the lineup almost immediately. He looks like he has potential to be more than a viable deep threat for this offense. He (like Jone’s) is a punishing blocker outside and has years of experience playing special teams at UConn. Marcus could be the perfect compliment to Stevie and I could really see him producing in our offense. Should his health not look so promising, this draft is absolutely loaded at WR from top to bottom and there’s a few guys I would love to see playing for us.
Also… It’s never a bad thing to add quality young weapons to an already productive offense. (See: Randall Cobb GB Packers)
this
Our talent at WR is good, but not great. Stevie runs routes well, but does have questionable hands, especially in the clutch. David Nelson is a solid slot receiver, but not a downfield threat. That leaves the other wideout position open for an upgrade. I have been thoroughly unimpressed with Donald Jones. He doesn’t seem to get open, and he has hands that seem to be coated with nonstick Teflon. If Marcus Easley is healthy next year, then I think he will bring a big lift to the receiving corps. If not, we really need to draft somebody who can help out, especially if he can get open deep. We can’t keep deluding ourselves into thinking we’ve struck gold with a 7th-rounder and a bunch of undrafted free agents. We struck something more like copper.
I would put WR as one of our four biggest needs for next year (assuming Easley doesn’t return), along with CB, pass-rushing OLB, and franchise QB. Fitzpatrick is not the long-term future of this franchise, and I’m still not sold on him even being the short-term answer.
by SiriusRed on Dec 6, 2011 11:33 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
hey copper is in high demand. people are breaking into derelict buildings and stealing all of the cooper material…plus harvesting recycled electronics…just sayin
by Air Compressor on Dec 6, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
Our talent at WR is good, but not great
No it’s not – Stevie is a player and Nelson is an average slot player – there is no depth and nobody on the other side. WR talent, while maybe not our top priority, is definitely an issue.
by JustAskTheAxis on Dec 6, 2011 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
You didn’t read beyond my first sentence, did you?
by SiriusRed on Dec 6, 2011 3:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think it's safe to say he didn't. I have to agree with your assessment though.
If Brad Smith continues to develop as a #2 or Easley can make it back for us, then I don’t think WR should be a priority this off-season.
Stevie and Brad Smith on the outside with Nelson and Parrish (who I want us to re-sign) inside is a very tough group to defend IMO.
"I got no problem with 7-9 coming off of 4-12 as long as I don't buy a couch there, you got to keep moving" - Mike Schoop
haha, nope… and now I agree so much with you that you get a rec’d :)
by JustAskTheAxis on Dec 6, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Don't forget Brad Smith
We are going to find out over the next four games whether he can be the deep threat we need. I would say it’s an open question at this point.
Number Crunching
I was curious in if the # of drops reflected the # of pass attempts. So from the link provided in the story I also looked at the # of receptions. I then divided drops by the sum of drops and receptions to get the % of dropped passes for all 32 teams.
New England has the least drops at 4.4%, Cleveland has the most at 12.4%. The Bills rank 7th with 6.0%.
As far as do we need another receiver: I think we could use an explosive burner WR to pair with Stevie (more of a possession WR). But I think we need to address OLB and CB more than WR.
I think we could use an explosive burner WR to pair with Stevie
or send Stevie deep once in a while – he has the ability to get behind the secondary
by JustAskTheAxis on Dec 6, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
those states can be deceiving
We seem to drop passes over 10 yards, is there a seperate stat for that? Bubble screens, shuttle passes, and check-downs are not difficult passes to catch, thus the deceiving numbers.
So you dont think Stevie’s drop cost a win huh?
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 6, 2011 10:54 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I think assuming it did is misguided. He dropped a game-winner against Pittsburgh. He dropped a potential game-changer against the Jets.
Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford
by Brian Galliford on Dec 6, 2011 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
I think it `probably’ cost us a win. But absent a drop being a drop in the endzone in overtime, its always less than certain thats true.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 6, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
But I think the bridge from probable to mythical is a big one.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 6, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
my first thoughts too grey
has already been mythicized into a drop that cost the team a win
Maybe you don’t think it cost us the win, Brian but doesn’t that sort of language belong in an opinion piece as opposed to a news piece?
When you drop a wide open catch with that much room deep in enemy territory in a one score game with only two more chances to score, I don’t think its fair to say that believing the drop cost the Bills a win is turning reality into myth.
This even grates my passive cheese - LeClaire Bill
Things are mythicized all the time. Example: the Bills’ loss to the Steelers in 2004 didn’t cost them a playoff spot. They needed a win and a Jets loss that day; yes, the Jets loss, but they also rested all of their starters after the Bills lost.
I’m willing to bet that in a year or two, the Steelers drop and the Jets drop are lumped together into one negative point in a Stevie opinion. That’s fine – it happens all of the time – but I don’t have to like it. :)
Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford
by Brian Galliford on Dec 6, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
I’m willing to bet that in a year or two, the Steelers drop and the Jets drop are lumped together into one negative point in a Stevie opinion.
You don’t have to wait that long, some have already done so. But just because its frustrating that this would happen doesnt mean if Stevie catches that ball the Bills probably dont win the ball game ;)
But don’t worry, Stevie will get locked up and the Bills will draft Justin Blackmon and they’ll both make enough game winning catches we’ll all soon forget about the Jets game.
This even grates my passive cheese - LeClaire Bill
But just because its frustrating that this would happen doesnt mean if Stevie catches that ball the Bills probably dont win the ball game ;)
That’s my point – we don’t know what would’ve happened. Stevie could’ve caught the ball, planted and blown an ACL, put the ball on the turf and the Bills wouldn’t have had any shot after that. To drop the ball in the end zone is entirely different than what he did two weeks ago.
Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford
by Brian Galliford on Dec 6, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
we don’t know what would’ve happened. Stevie could’ve caught the ball, planted and blown an ACL, put the ball on the turf and the Bills wouldn’t have had any shot after that
Well now that’s an extreme example – while I get your point, a more likely outcome would have been that he simply ran into the end zone or that we scored on one of the four shots we would have had from inside the 10
by JustAskTheAxis on Dec 6, 2011 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
yes, the Jets loss, but they also rested all of their starters after the Bills lost.
actually they played the same time
by J2 on Dec 6, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, I know they did.
Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford
by Brian Galliford on Dec 6, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, we need an upgrade in my opinion. I was not sold on the WRs coming into the season, and they have been largely unproductive with a few exceptions. Easley’s contribution is anyone’s guess, Parrish is done, Jones isn’t any good, Spiller, I’m not convinced, can fill the void. I like Nelson and Stevie, and Smith is proving to be an asset, and Roosevelt can get open, but a top-tier receiving threat would be an awesome addition to the WRs that I think is necessary if we’re going to have any sort of passing attack threat. The spread is fine and all, but I’d like the defense to be scared of the pass even if there are only 2 or 3 WRs on the field.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
We don't have the QB for this though.
The spread is fine and all, but I’d like the defense to be scared of the pass even if there are only 2 or 3 WRs on the field.
Fitz doesn’t have the long ball accuracy to strike that fear in a defense. Even if we have a Reggie Wayne type that gets a step or two on a DB you half to think the odds are against us completing that pass.
"I got no problem with 7-9 coming off of 4-12 as long as I don't buy a couch there, you got to keep moving" - Mike Schoop
I didn’t say deep threat, I think that 3 great route runners (just one more beyond Stevie and Nelson would be fine) would do the trick. He’s completed plenty of passes with 2 WRs and a TE over the past few weeks.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
just my unsubstantiated opinion, but, it seems to me that receivers are “shy” about going across the middle. I have always thought Stevie is especially skittish anticipating a hit.
"Hallelujah, Noel, be it heaven or hell, the Christmas we get, we deserve"- Greg Lake
i saw it somewhat different. stevie and nelson are the only ones that will go across the middle.. stevie was getting hammered in the dolphins and the jets part 2 game. playing with injuries and staying in the game despite getting lit up like 3 times in both games impressed me with his toughness. he was clearly hurting….and nelson got lit up a couple times too and hobbled away but stayed in both games.
by Air Compressor on Dec 6, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
That's my opinion too.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see them shy away a bit going forward though as we play out the stretch.
Stevie especially has taken some big shots over the middle while playing with a bad groin and shoulder.
"I got no problem with 7-9 coming off of 4-12 as long as I don't buy a couch there, you got to keep moving" - Mike Schoop
Mediocre talent does not win football games
If you think that our Misfits is ever going to bring the Bills a championship, think again… In order to ever have a consistent offensive product, Stevie needs to be re-signed, Nelson kept in slot (goodbye Parrish), and a FA needs to be brought in to be our #2 receiver. I would like to see V Jackson, D Bowe, B Lloyd, etc considered. Buffalo has the money/cap space to do this, and it would provide Fitz the talent he needs to catch his errant passes, as well as give Stevie better matchups.
I think part of the issue was one game (forget which one) the announcers jumped through hoops to point out the drops by Bills receivers (especially Jones), and I think by their count there were 9 dropped passes in that one game. It was a glaring issue in that game but other than that, the receivers have been by and large sure-handed, especially Nelson and Chandler.
That said, we do need an upgrade but it’s not a pressing concern considering the production we’re getting even deep into the depth chart. Fitzpatrick, though not always the most accurate, does give his receivers opportunities to succeed. I’d be eager to bring in a FA or someone in the draft who will actually play a down in the regular season (Easley looked so promising) to be able to spread the field a little more north and south.
"You can't spell, 'The Buffalo Bills Win the Superbowl,' without 'Buffalo Bills.'" - Me
no big deal
This WR corps is fine. Sure depth may be needed, but can easily be had. Did anyone see how many A Rodgers passes were dropped against NYG? We need depth on defense, not for WRs.
CC Infantino
but we don’t have an Aaron Rodgers to overcome thw drops – we have a Ryan Fitzpatrick who is maddeningly inconsistent
by JustAskTheAxis on Dec 6, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
Interesting
Perhaps the issue is when our receivers make the catches (and I don’t just mean game time). Fitz’s YPA has dropped to 6.8, the lowest of the top 14 QBs in the league. We have a passing offense that focuses on getting the ball out fast, but that obviously comes at the expense of the big play. Our recievers may be making the catches, but because we lack that Killer Strike that we had with Lee Evans, it highlights the drops they DO have because each short yardage play becomes more and more vital (especially when we play from behind).
I hope Brad Smith can develop into a reliable deep threat, and I sure as heck hope that Fitz tightens up his deep ball accuracy. The latter being more an issue than the prior.
Ah the mythical killer strike from Evans.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 6, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
hey to be fair he ALMOST had 10 tds one season like 6 years ago
by Air Compressor on Dec 6, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
I can name a few instances, but they seem like a LONG time ago…
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 6, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
?
Lee Evans had 7, 7, 8 and 9 touchdowns in four seasons. Eric Moulds four best touchdown seasons were 5, 7, 9, and 10.
Lee Evans is also fifth in franchise history in both receiving yards and touchdowns. The Bills have had only 6 seasons with a receiver who got to 10 touchdowns, one of them belonging to Stevie.
There was nothing mythical about Lee Evans providing this team with a killer strike.
This even grates my passive cheese - LeClaire Bill
by poz on Dec 6, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I tease poz. But the last two years (and this year) we really havent seen it. So it feels like ancient history.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
ah ok
hard to read into tone sometimes on the blog.
Just wanted to set the record straight because Lee Evans really was a very good weapon for many years. When he had an arm that could get him the ball when he got behind secondaries – Bledsoe and Losman – he was someone that had to be accounted for on every single snap. The Holcomb, Edwards, Fitz era made his talents un-usable sadly. I still think Fitz could have made use as he got more comfortable trusting himself deep.
If he can ever get healthy and up to speed for the Ravens as they hit the playoffs, look out with Flaccos arm
This even grates my passive cheese - LeClaire Bill
by poz on Dec 6, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
theres no debate he was a good WR but id say the fact hes 5th in the franchise speaks more about the lack of WR talent that has come through Buffalo. If we had him during his prime now and Stevie then they would be a great duo as they demonstrated last year and we wouldnt have this discussion. dont wanna get into yet another evans debate but hes a one trick pony and his value in my opinion is overstated a tad…but thats jsut my opinion and im sure im the minority on that
by Air Compressor on Dec 6, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
agreed, no need to get into another Evans debate
but plenty of guys in the league are one trick ponies that are lethal. Evans always was that when he had a QB who could get him the ball on time, on target, in stride behind the secondary. He may have been a one trick pony but I wish we could have used that trick after Losman left.
This even grates my passive cheese - LeClaire Bill
by poz on Dec 6, 2011 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
that is true. theres no doubt we could use him this year but i think the staff knew something we fans didnt about evans as he hasnt been healthy all year. so in hindsight im glad they traded him…plus hes a stand up guy so i was happy seem him go to a potential contender.
by Air Compressor on Dec 6, 2011 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
It doesn't have to come in the form of TDs to be a killer strike
It can come in the form of being a reliable target 60 yards down the field.
Its how you get QBs who pass 20 times and has 350 yards and multiple TDs. Unlike guys like Fitz, who throws 40 times with barely over 250 yards.
Being able to take out half a football field in one shot can work wonders for passing efficiency. TDs can come from a multitude of different sources after.
My personal favorite:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sxkXH6gZ08
Ron Paul 2012
by BuffaloBlueBlood on Dec 6, 2011 12:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
ha yeah i remember that game. that catch made me so happy…then i reverted back to football depression
by Air Compressor on Dec 6, 2011 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
Absolutely Upgrade
They need a big fast receiver who can stretch the field vertically. A pass-rusher (OLB) and a big speed receiver will help their respective units (defense and offense) the most. If the Bill’s can fill both these positions, resign key free-agents, they will be a playoff team next year.
Coach Bob: I agree PLUS
Plus the D needs TWO OLBs, not just one. I believe the first 3 round need to be devoted to those 3 positions (including your fast, big WR) and then they can worry about the rest. Like I said, I posted my 2012 Bills draft plan (above) already.
Blackmon or D?
If we have the chance to draft Justin Blackmon, do we do it? Or should we go for the best defender available?
The last NYC Bills Fan on Earth.
I hope
Dre Kirkpatrick is available and if so I’d take him over Blackmon
Never confuse movement with action.
~Ernest Hemingway
by NolaBillsFan on Dec 6, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
id take blackmon over claiborne but not over kirkpatrick. i think either way we would be happy with one of those guys
by Air Compressor on Dec 6, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
If we have the chance to draft Justin Blackmon, do we do it?
I highly doubt he’d be there, but if he is, then absolutely – he’d be BPA anyway at that point
by JustAskTheAxis on Dec 6, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
Its true we spend a lot of time talking about an offense that is being asked to compensate for a really bad scoring defense. They are constantly in a race to get to 25+ points to win a game and maybe a handful of teams in the NFL have offenses that can do that consistently. When we fail, we come down hard on offensive problems, but in the scope of the entire game we are putting a lot more pressure on these guys to be perfect.
With this group we are outperforming on offense and yet we usually spend two-thirds of our time wondering about playcalling, offensive scheme, and fitpatricks accuracy.
Meanwhile our defense is basically demanding that they score as many points as Green Bay, New Orleans, New England, Detroit or Houston in each game, so be a top 5 scoring offense. The fact we’ve even come close at times I think is a credit to these players. But every team has drops and ours is no exception. Our failings (not in every game, but in general) are much more related to our defense and in particular our defense getting crushed in the first half of games, which then contributes to putting more pressure on the O.
Its tough to be a top 5 O without at least one elite player on offense (and even when Fred is healthy, I think I’d trade him for 5 other backs). All those other teams have elite wideouts or CBs or RBs or a combination.
So while I think the offense can always play better. The low hanging fruit is can our defense get better and not allow 25+ points per game. It seems much more reasonable to ask this defense to get out of the bottom rungs of the elague on scoring d than to expect our offense to be a top 5 offense to over come that. To me that means I think asking perfection from the O is expecting too much, whereas asking competence from the defense could take as a big step forward.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 6, 2011 12:03 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd
We’d be in the playoffs with the “Mythical Great Defense.” :)
In all seriousness, this is a great post, and as I’ve said all along, dropped passes in the last seconds of a game are unnecessary when you have a 24-10 lead.
couldnt have said it better. im happy with the way our offense has played despite that 3 game blackhole they fell into. obviously they can still impove a lot and become more consistent but i think a legit #1 or #2 WR would help that a lot. legit WR is easier said than done though
by Air Compressor on Dec 6, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Most NFL teams score between 20-28 points a game. http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byteam?group=Offense&cat=Total&conference=NFL&year=season_2011&sort=1130&old_category=Total&old_group=Defense.
Most NFL teams allow between 20-28 points a game.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byteam?group=Defense&cat=Total&conference=NFL&year=season_2011&sort=530&old_category=Total&old_group=Offense
by Ground Zero Mosques on Dec 6, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Yup
And in one category we are at the top of the range (offense) and in the other we are at the bottom of the range (defense).
That represents a massive swing. the top end of your range is 40% more than the bottom end. A team that averages 20 pts per game on defense is giving up 320 points in a year versus 28 points is like 450 points…
There are five teams that on average score more than us. There are only 6 teams that give up more points…
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
But those numbers are actually pretty slim. Averaging 25 points doesn’t seem that much different than averaging 24.8. The differences are at the margins, the very, very best and the very, very worst. We are in the middle.
If we suddenly became the greatest defensive team in football, yes, our team wouldn’t need to score 25 points a game. However, that’s probably not realistic. Much more probably they will allow something like 20-22 points a game. And we will probably score around 23-25 points a game.
by Ground Zero Mosques on Dec 6, 2011 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree, I think the difference between us and a bunch of teams that average 20-22 points a game is HUGE. We don’t need to be the greatest team. We need to be an average team. I think that makes our offense look better, an offense that is outperforming its talent level already.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
ten teams allow fwer than 20 points a game, I’m not demanding that at all. I just think we focus on offensive imperfections, with an offense that is already being pushed to its limits and probably can’t play “perfect” whereas if we could get our defense to play like say the chiefs or the cardinals or the redskins we wouldnt care about 2 drops a game. We have zero expcetation for this defense now and its causing us to lambast the offense. But the d is indefensibly BAD. Like atrocious. Their only savings grace was turnovers and that went bye bye.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
More Stats to back up greysquirrel
The Green Bay Packers have given up 21.83 points per game. They are ranked right in the middle, #16 in that category.
The Bills played 8 teams with better than average defenses. They beat 2 of them (Patriots and Redskins). They played 4 teams with below average defenses. They beat 3 of them (Giants the one exception).
My opinion: The offense has played adequately enough to win the last 2 games. The defense allowed the Giants and Bengals to come back and win. Improve the defense, and we have a mythical 9-3 record.
the difference between 25pts a game and 22pts a game is still a possession, and considering the limited number that each team gets in a game, that’s huge!
by JustAskTheAxis on Dec 6, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
I think the number of drops is not the issue,
but what has often resulted from the drops. They may have the 6th lowest total in the leauge, but it seem that their drops always come at critical times, (on third down, in the endzone, etc) or result in the ball being intercepted. This is what is making the drops so glaring and leading to the perception that the receivers are hanging Fitz out to dry.
I am one of the people that believe Fitz has not played as badly as the media and many fans are claiming. Obviously, he has not played great, and has certainly carries his fair share of the blame for the teams current 5 game slide. But overall I think he has been alright. People are quick to point out the number interceptions he’s thrown duing the losing streak, but I think half of them have been the result of dropped passes by the recievers. The two picks he threw in the Miami game hit Donald Jones and Brad Smith right in the numbers but they couldn’t bring them in.
I’m not saying this to necessarily advocate the play of Fitz, but more to say that while the Bills WR’s may have a low total of drops for the season, their drops almost alway seem to result in killed drives. And killed drives are causing Fitz and Chan to look worse than maybe they deserve. This is the problem. This group of receivers has not been clutch lately, and that has been a big reason for our offensive struggles. Overall Naaman has played well this year, but that drop on third down was a killer yesterday and it is a perfect example of what has beeng going on lately with this team. Hopefully this is just a result of inexperience and they will all improve with time.
So to answer the question, yes I would look to upgrade the receiving corp in the offseason, especially in the form of adding a deap threat, but it shouldn’t be the teams biggest focus. Pass rush and CB are more of a need at this point. The receiving corp is not bad, but definately need to improve, especially at clutch times. Just MHO.
"It’s like I’ve always said, don’t tell me about the labor pains, just show me the baby. That’s what we’ve got to do. We’ve got to show you the baby, and the baby is winning." - Buddy Nix
If the Bills are in position to draft Justin Blackmon
I want them to. His talent is absurd and he would instantly upgrade the offense. If not, Im ok with waiting on WR until the middle rounds in the event that Brad Smith continues to perform as he has.
This even grates my passive cheese - LeClaire Bill
A more likely choice is probably Michael Floyd or BPA on defense. I haven’t watched the Irish much, but Floyds measurables fit the bill (no pun, seriously).
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 6, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
isnt Michael Floyd more similar to Stevie?
I havent watched enough of his games but he seems like the possession, route running type of guy that Stevie is while Blackmon has that Dez Bryant feel? I could just be saying that because they both played for the same team but he seems like a guy who can be dangerous all over the field but more importantly for the Bills – deep.
This even grates my passive cheese - LeClaire Bill
I think he weighs 10-15 lbs more than stevie and is a few inches taller. but again, i ahvent watched him…
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 6, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
but yea the point here is the same I believe
the Bills will target the top flight WR if they are in position, if not, we might be looking at another defender. A pass rusher I’d expect. Maybe a corner.
This even grates my passive cheese - LeClaire Bill
Floyd
From what I understand he isn’t the fastest guy, but he is a monster in the air, and would give us a big downfield target that can also catch the jump ball and/or fade in the back of the end zone. He FIGHTS for the balls….maybe a good example is V Jackson?
Im less concerned about a guys speed
and more about a guy just beating corners for the ball. The speed play is pretty, but given Fitz’s “style” and the direction of the league it looks like the guy who can physically compete for the ball is winning. IMO
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Dec 6, 2011 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
I agree completely. You have to have a guy that will just play eight through a defender to go up and get the ball. Our guys are more of a “let the ball come to us” kinda guys.
Ron Paul 2012
by BuffaloBlueBlood on Dec 6, 2011 1:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
eight = right
Ron Paul 2012
by BuffaloBlueBlood on Dec 6, 2011 1:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
good point
I think one thing that should be more than apparent is nix, and maybe even Chan, have an affinity at taking guys that are tall, and hopefully can catch. Speed is less of a concern than body positioning, which is kind of what you are eluding to, I feel. I think another thing to point out is that Fitz rarely steps forward into the pocket, throws off his back foot, and generally is inaccurate and can benefit from a larger target. So the “burner/speedster” everyone wants, might be useless when fitz can’t put the ball on him. We need a big tall guy who is aggressive for the ball, has a huge radius, and hopefully good speed. Basically, we want some guy like Andre Johnson, Fitgerald, or Megatron. No biggy. Hahaha. Floyd is probably a great selection, as he is similar to Demaryius Thomas (former Georgia tech wr under gailey), and will likely not be a huge reach where we select- should buddy feel that pass rusher can be found later, rather than WR found later (in and of itself a stretch-IMO)
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Dec 7, 2011 5:10 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
interesting comparison
you also make him sound like an Anquan Boldin
This even grates my passive cheese - LeClaire Bill
by poz on Dec 6, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Floyd is sloppy and would take a while to turn into a threat – Blackmon, while I don’t think he’ll be there, is way more NFL ready at this point
by JustAskTheAxis on Dec 6, 2011 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
I'd be interested to know...
To the people who compile these stats what constitutes a “drop”. When ever I watch a game, it seems like the balls are always bouncing off the receivers’ hands. In fact, I’ll bet almost half of Fitz’s interceptions this year bounced off one of our reciever’s hands first.
"When you wrestle with a pig, you both get dirty. The pig likes it."
Agreed
There was a stat that went up on the TV screen during the Bills/Dolphins game that the Bills had dropped 10 passes. The commentators even discussed it. (If you need a reminder, that was the game we have zero first downs and Fitz threw 2 ints that both went through WRs hands.) I can’t believe we have ONLY 17 drops.
A question you have to ask.....
When evaluating wrs. is, are they getting open? And the people we would ask are sober season-ticket holders (soberish?) as they see the whole field.
What say you ticket holders… Do are wrs. Get open?
And part B would be… Does Fitzy generally see them ?(if they are getting separation)
Because the Bills have some massive questions this offseason. I think we need a young QB for sure ie I think the thigpen signing was a mistake. I think the only question left is, in which round (and, IMHO, at this time, first round is an option.)
Lastly, the bills need to hit big on a free agents this offseason. We have holes, man, serious holes. We need a player who can really help them turn around their losing ways on and off the field.
Go Bills!
PodunkO - The great post ender!
Green Bay
They have a core of good, undrafted FAs or late-round draft picks. However, they also have a good number of solid, extremely talented superstars. I think that if we can keep our solid, hard-working guys going, and supplement them with some true superstars, we can go far. Unfortunately, we do not have any true superstars, except Fred Jackson, and potentially Marcel Dareus down the road. He’s already contributing greatly as a rookie.
no room for more receivers
Johnson, Parrish, Jones, Nelson, Easley, Roosevelt, Smith. Unless they plan on cutting three of those guys then there really isn’t room to carry anymore receivers. I say take your lumps with these guys and use the draft to improve the myriad of other problems in the Bills lineup.

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