Der Jaeger has a fanpost up in which he convincingly argues that first round QBs are more likely to become elite than later round projects/shots-in-the-dark. Sure, there are later round successes like Brady and Brees but most good/great QBs are found in the first round.

But of the league's franchise quarterback's two thirds were first rounders. 

and

My point all along: it's far better statistically, in ever study that's come down the pipe, to try to acquire the franchise's future starting quarterback inside the first 32 picks.

That got me thinking about the 46% that was mentioned but not expounded upon. While elite QBs are most often found in round 1 along with a majority of good QBs, there is a high rate of failure.

Here's the list of QBs who have been drafted in the first round since 1998 along with their first round draft position.

1998 1-1 Peyton Manning

1998 1-2 Ryan Leaf

1999 1-1 Tim Couch

1999 1-2 Donovan McNabb

1999 1-3 Akili Smith

1999 1-11 Daunte Culpepper

1999 1-12 Cade McNown

2000 1-18 Chad Pennington

2001 1-1 Michael Vick

2002 1-1 David Carr

2002 1-3 Joey Harrington

2002 1-32 Patrick Ramsey

2003 1-1 Carson Palmer

2003 1-7 Byron Leftwich

2003 1-19 Kyle Boller

2003 1-22 Rex Grossman

2004 1-1 Eli Manning

2004 1-4 Phillip Rivers

2004 1-11 Ben Roethlisberger

2004 1-22 JP Losman (Ugh!)

2005 1-1 Alex Smith

2005 1-24 Aaron Rogers

2005 1-25 Jason Campbell

2006 1-3 Vince Young

2006 1-10 Matt Leinart

2006 1-11 Jay Cutler

2007 1-1 JaMarcus Russell

2007 1-22 Brady Quinn

2008 1-3 Matt Ryan

2008 1-18 Joe Flacco

2009 1-1 Matthew Stafford

2009 1-5 Mark Sanchez

2009 1-17 Josh Freeman

2010 1-1 Sam Bradford

2010 1-25 Tim Tebow

Keep in mind that QBs were taken first overall in 10 of 13 drafts. Of those 10, 3 are considered elite (P Manning, Vick, E Manning) and 2 are considered good (Palmer and Bradford). So, the miss-rate at first overall is 50% while the miss rate in the entirety of the first round is the 46% Der Jaeger referenced. To my way of thinking it all comes down to getting the evaluations done right. Indy took Manning while San Diego pounced on Leaf. One organization got it right and the other got screwed.

Whether or not there is a soon-to-be elite QB to be had in the first round this year, CHIX had better get it right. If the Bills take a QB who doesn't pan out that QB will likely doom the CHIX regime. It will take a year of sitting and a year of playing to realize that the QB isn't the answer, by which time CHIX will have been fired.