Another piece of the QB puzzle
After reading Der Jeager’s post ,
http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2011/2/12/1990611/franchise-quarterbacks#59104785
I wanted to see in what years the current starting QBs were taken, and how long they sat before being named the starting QB. I decided to list them by the year they were drafted, team who drafted them, round taken in the draft, and put the number of years they sat before being named the starter, which I put in parenthesis. I also included a few pertinent tid bits about each QB.
1991
Atl: Farve, 2nd – (1 year). Traded in 1992 to Packers and started by mid season.
1995
Panthers: Collins, 1st – (0 years). Started as rookie
1998
Ind: Manning, 1st - Started as a rookie (0 years)
Packers: Hasselbeck, 6th – Sat behind Farve and Dilfer. Named starter in 2003(5 years)
1999
Philly: McNabb, 1st - Started as rookie (0 years)
2000
New England: Brady, 6th Round - Sat for a full year and only got to play do to Bledsoe's injury (1.5 years)
2001
Atl: Vick, 1st – Named starter in 2002. (1 year)
Chargers: Brees, 2nd – Sat behind Flutie as rookie. Won starting job in 2002, lost it in 2003, traded in 2005 to Saints. (3 years)
2002
Jax: Garrard, 4th - Didn't start until 2007 (5 years)
2003
Cin: Palmer, 1st - Sat behind Kitna for a year. Won starting job in 2004 (1 year)
Dal: Romo, Undrafted - Named starter in 2006 (2 years)
2004
Pitt: Roethlisberger, 1st - Named starter in 1st season (0 years)
Atl: Schaub, 3rd - Named starter in 2007 (3 years)
SD: Rivers, 1st - Sat behind Brees. Named starter in 2006 (2 years)
NYG: Manning, 1st - Sat behind Warner. Named starter in 2005 (1 year)
2005
SF: Smith, 1st – started nine games as a rookie. Had 5 OC is 5 years and has won and lost the starting job several times. (.5 years)
Rams: Fitzpatrick, 7th Round - Played one game for Rams. Didn't play again until 2007 due to Palmer's injury. Named starter in 2010 due to craptastic play of Edwards. (5 years)
Bears: Orton, 5th - Won starting job for Bears in 2008. Traded in 2009 to start for Denver. 2010 Lost job to Tebow. (3 years)
Was: Campbell, 1st - Named starter in 2006. Traded in 2010 to Raiders and benched by game two. (1 year)
Pats: Cassel, 7th - Started in 2008 due to injury to Brady. (3 years)
Ravens: Anderson, 6th – Sat behind Dilfer and Frye. Named starter in 2007, traded to AZ in 2010, won, lost, won starting job before getting injured. (2 years)
GB: Rodgers, 1st – Sat behind Farve. Started in 2008 (3 years)
2006
Tenn: Young , 1st - Started in 2006. Lost starting job in 2008. Cut by Titians in 2010 (0 years)
Min: Jackson, 2nd – Started in 2007 after sitting behind Brad Johnson. (1 year)
Denver: Cutler, 1st – Started in late Nov of his rookie year. Traded in 2009 to start for Bears (.5 years)
2007
Phil: Kolb, 2nd – Sat behind McNabb. Named started in 2010. Lost job to Vick (3 years)
2008
Atl: Ryan, 1st – named starter as a rookie (0 years)
Bal: Flacco, 1st - Was not expected to start as rookie, but did due to injuries to Boller and Smith. (0 years)
Miami: Henne, 2nd Round - played one game as a rookie due to injury of Pennington. Took over starting job in 2009 do to injury to Chad P. 2010 - Lost starting job to Chad P before getting it back to do injury to Chad P. (1 year)
2009
NYJ: Sanchez, 1st - named starter as a rookie (0 years)
Det: Stafford, 1st - started as a rookie (0 years)
TB: Freeman, 1st – started as a rookie by early Nov (.5 years)
2010
STL: Bradford, 1st – Started as a rookie (0 years)
Cle: McCoy, 3rd - Plan was to sit him for a year, but started week 6 of first season due to injury to Delhomme (.5 years)
Den: Tebow, 1st - Plan was to sit him for a year, but started his first game in mid December (.5 years)
Car: Clausen, 2nd – Was supposed to sit, but forced into action as a rookie. Benched by week 5. (0 years)
- A few things that stood out to me the most. Do starting QBs have to be taken in the first round? Of the QBs that were considered the starters this season that were drafted between 1991 – 2005, 11 were taken in the first round and 11 were taken in rounds 2-7. That’s right……50/50. Could the reason for this be that enough time has passed for first round busts to get cut and for late rounders to develop?
Next, I listed the QBs by how many years they sat before being named starters and their current status as of the end of the 2010 season.
P. Manning, 1998 - 1st - (0 years). Starter. Elite…One of the best all time
Collins, 1995, 1st – (0 years). Starter. At end of career
McNabb, 1999 - 1st - (0 years). Benched. At end of a very good career
Roethlisberger, 2004 - 1st - (0 years). Starter. Solid QB riding coat tails of great D
Young , 2006 - 1st - (0 years). Cut by Titians in 2010
Ryan, 2008 - 1st – (0 years). Very solid starter. Poised to become elite.
Flacco, 2008 - 1st - (0 years). Starter. Solid QB riding coat tails of great D
Sanchez, 2009 - 1st - (0 years). Starter. Inconsistent QB riding coat tails of great D
Stafford, 2009 - 1st - (0 years). Starter. Looks solid, but to soon to call.
Bradford, 2010 - 1st – (0 years). Starter. Looks solid, but to soon to call.
Clausen, 2010 - 2nd – (0 years). Benched. To soon to call.
McCoy, 2010 - 3rd - (.5 years). Starter. Inconsistent and battling injury, but to soon to call.
Tebow, 2010 - 1st - (.5 years). Starter. Inconsistent. To soon to call.
Smith, 2005 - 1st – (.5 years). Starter, but not for lack of trying to replace him
Cutler, 2006 - 1st – (.5 years). Starter. Inconsistent
Freeman, 2009 - 1st – (.5 years). Starter. Looks solid, but to soon to call.
Farve, 1991 – 2nd – (1 year). Hall of Fame QB. Elite, but at the end of career.
Vick, 2001 – 1st – (1 year). Starter. Inconsistent
Palmer, 2003 - 1st - (1 year). Starter. Injury and consistency issues. Wants to be traded
E. Manning, 2004 - 1st - (1 year). Starter. Solid QB riding coat tails of great D
Campbell, 2005 - 1st - (1 year). Benched. Inconsistent
Jackson, 2006 - 2nd – (1 year). Current starter by default, but in reality…career backup
Henne, 2008 - 2nd (1 year). Starter by default. Inconsistent.
Brady, 2000 - 6th Round - (1.5 years). Starter. Elite. One of the best all time
Romo, 2003 - Undrafted - (2 years). Starter. Solid but not elite
Rivers, 2004 - 1st - (2 years). Starter. Trying to push into elite status
Anderson, 2005 - 6th – (2 years). Benched. Inconsistent
Brees, 2001 - 2nd – (3 years). Starter. Elite
Schaub, 2004 - 3rd - (3 years). Starter. Inconsistent
Rodgers, 2005 - 1st – (3 years). Starter. Elite
Orton, 2005 - 5th - (3 years). Benched. Solid but not elite
Cassell, 2005 - 7th - (3 years). Starter. Solid but not elite
Kolb, 2007 - 2nd –(3 years). Benched.
Hasselbeck, 1998 - 6th – (5 years). Starter. Solid starter. Injury issues. At end of career
Garrard, 2002 - 4th - (5 years). Starter. Inconsistent
Fitzpatrick, 2005 – 7th - (5 years). Starter. Inconsistent
- Things that stood out to me. Currently, there are 16 QBs who won their starting job without sitting for at least one full year. Only 1 is Elite (P. Manning). Nine of those QBs were drafted in the past 3 years (2008-10). So while history has shown that throwing young QBs into the starting line up early is not the best way to develop elite QBs, the trend seems to be for teams to do so.
Of the five QBs I listed as elite (Farve, Manning, Brady, Brees, and Rogers), they averaged sitting 2 years before starting.
So does any of this help the Bills decide what round to take a QB? Probably not. I really think that there is no one single factor that can be pointed to as a definitive predictor of NFL success. Round taken, overall team talent, sitting for at least a year, coaching, work ethic, intangibles, experience in college running a Pro system, wonderlic score, playing in a NFL system that matches the QBs natural talents, etc. It is very complicated…..which is probably why the people who get paid to do this have trouble figuring it out.
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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I like this analysis Joe
I’ve always disagreed with throwing guys into the fire and this would indicate that letting a guy learn with a clipboard for a few years pays dividends, as long as the guy can learn from the veteran in front of him.
We are in a very good spot this year because Fitzy has show enough fight to justify starting him at least in 2011 maybe even 2012. I don’t think he’s the reason why we suck. Our Defense must improve by leaps and bounds if we are to have a chance at the playoffs.
More and more I am convinced that the best possible player for us on the board is Peterson, I don’t think that we can pass on him if he drops to number 3. But in the case where he does go to Denver, then I’m almost to the point of thinking that Gabbert should be the pick, knowing that he’ll have 1-2 years to learn behind Fitzy. I don’t think we can afford to pass on a potential Franchise QB. Gabbert definitely seems to have all the necessary elements minus the flags so it probably would be a smart move to go with Gabbert if Peterson is off the board.
Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience
Thanks....and yeah, Fitz might be the perfect bridge to our QB of the future
but I don’t think Fitz gets us more than 8-8. I would definitely take Peterson if he was there, but won’t be upset if they take Gabbert either.
For my own personal sanity, I am officially banning myself from reading/saying anything about Cam Newton.... starting the day after the Bowl game until the start of the combine.
I hear ya. I’m just affraid that they take a chance on Newton, that guy scares the crap out of me. I really don’t think that a guy with so many flags against him will rise to the occasion. Anyone who needs to steal and cheat, not once, not twice but three times, a guy with soooooo much at stake – really doesn’t scream intelligence (if you know what i mean)
Peterson would be the best option and if not then I really hope they pull the trigger on Gabbert, who I think will take to learning behind Fitz very well.
Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience
I agree with you about Peterson
my second choice is Bowers, and Gabbert is tied for third with Miller.
For my own personal sanity, I am officially banning myself from reading/saying anything about Cam Newton.... starting the day after the Bowl game until the start of the combine.
I’m not convinced that Bowers is a sure thing. I’d like to think he’s the next Bruce but i remember a few games this year where he seems to disappear. You look at him and he’s definitely not going 100% so I sorta question his desire a bit..
I guess it comes down to this, unless I am completely certain that the guy we’re taking is going to be a Superstar, then I prefer to take a chance on a QB. We have not been in a position to pick the top QB in the draft for a very long time. I choose to believe that Nix has the ability to identify the best one from the litter. So if Peterson ain’t there, i want us to take our next QB
Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience
I hear ya. I’m just affraid that they take a chance on Newton, that guy scares the crap out of me
GET OUT OF ME HEAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Buffalo Bills, finding new and exciting ways to lose since January 8th, 2000.
by CanadianBillsFan on Feb 15, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
Now I like Newton
but last year I liked Claussen. I’m just glad someone else is making the pick.
Coaching and Scheme
We need this factored in to some level. I don’t believe that it is solely on the coach and scheme, a player still needs time to develop, but can they? The point is can the two marry to become one and then grow together. Tom Brady is a perfect example of this. Peyton Manning more so early in his career with Marchibroda. Manning isn’t the same without his Dallas Clark but he is still pretty darn good. Brady has adapted and adjusted many times in his career. Just a thought that doesn’t get as much attention as the who we should draft. IMO we are fortunate to have Gailey for this purpose. I just hope his ego isn’t so huge that he would pass on elite so he can continue to make lemonade.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
by VanScottM on Feb 14, 2011 10:16 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
This is a very astute analysis, Gailey has been quoted as saying, “You don’t need Babe Ruth to win!” However, I think that over the years he has gotten a chance to see that teams w/ great QBs are at a supreme advantage in today’s NFL. I said that to say this, I would be shocked to see his input consist of taking a QB in any other round than #1. Too expand on your thinking let’s look at it this way. To compare Gabbert and Newton, the only QBs worth taking at #3 in this draft. . .
1.) Coaching – I am on record many times on this site saying how much I believe in Gailey as an NFL QB coach. I think if we pick a guy who is willing to come in, learn and build a symbiotic relationship w/ Gailey, there will be few better instructed QBs in the league than him. This is why Newton is so intriguing to me. As, despite his freakish athleticism, he also has the a higher coach-ability factor IMO (albeit my opinion means nothing since I cannot sit down and interview Xs and Os w/ the guy). Gabbert, is not very far behind Newton in this factor, so we are in a good postion by drafting either.
2.) Scheme – The system we run is extremely QB friendly. More so than perhaps about 60% of the league IMO and light years more so than the Marchibroda “K-Gun” system of Buffalo folklore. The reads at the line in our current system, though important, aren’t as integral to success as the offense Kelly ran or the one the Peyton Manning runs. In our system we don’t necessarily need the “OC in a helmet” type of QB. Gailey makes great play calls, we would be well served to draft a guy who just sets up and slings it. This is why Gabbert would be a good (perhaps even excellent) fit. Newton, despite his great throwing motion and off the charts arm strength is unmeasured in his ability to fit the ball in tight throwing windows as well as make line reads and as a result tests a bit lower in the scheme category to me.
Either way, I can see both players making a smooth transition to this team as it currently is. So if push comes to shove take this away from my comment, we have an excellent problem on our hands! Whether we take Newton or Gabbert, we have a definite answer in my eyes as to who the QB of the future for this football team is. Although the end product will be slightly different, whether we take Gabbert or Newton, we would we hard pressed to not take either in this years draft. Just my thoughts
Remember Chan took Mike Tomczak to a divisional playoff! The guy can coach QBs!
Newton will be a BUST at the next level, mark my words. He looked very pedestrian in the BCS game. He might be full of Athletic abilities but so was Vince & Jamarcus. He can’t read a defense to save his life! - Keysh67
thank you
This to me is such a huge portion of the whole franchise thing. Gailey’s vast knowledge in NFL offenses along with his resume to put these gun slingers in postion. Also, the ability to devise a system to utilize such players like David Nelson, Donald Jones and Naaman Roosevelt. All three players that went undrafted. What better proof do we need. To expand just a little, Doug Whaley and his contribution in his first year. I can’t remember when I was so thrilled about the potential our interior OL has. These are the things that should preface our conversations about drafting a franchise QB not the bridging that Ryan offers. Not the one or two year cusion that Ryan can give us. The Manning’s and Brady’s have had help in thier development. You are correct:
we have an excellent problem on our hands!
the arguement is Gabbert/Newton, Ponder/Kaepernick, Mallet/Locker, Dillon/Dalton and the others. Some will argue there is a big gap between say Gabbert/Newton and Mallet/Locker. IMO that is all Gailey’s call, I wouldn’t attempt to sell anyone anything I wasn’t sure about especially a QB in the first round.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
well said
the arguement is Gabbert/Newton, Ponder/Kaepernick, Mallet/Locker, Dillon/Dalton and the others. Some will argue there is a big gap between say Gabbert/Newton and Mallet/Locker.
But it is more than that. First round busts cost coaches and GMs their jobs…especially if it is a QB. You better get it right. And if you take a first round bust, whatever the position, it costs you double because that means you probably passed on a superstar that you should have drafted .
For my own personal sanity, I am officially banning myself from reading/saying anything about Cam Newton.... starting the day after the Bowl game until the start of the combine.
This makes me sad
teams w/ great QBs are at a supreme advantage in today’s NFL. I said that to say this, I would be shocked to see his input consist of taking a QB in any other round than #1.
I have been saying for some time that I wanted a QB in the first round, especially this year since we are picking at #3, but if there is no Luck, Bradford, Ryan type QB in this draft, then why force the issue? Plus I said above that
Of the QBs that were considered the starters this season that were drafted between 1991 – 2005, 11 were taken in the first round and 11 were taken in rounds 2-7. That’s right……50/50. Could the reason for this be that enough time has passed for first round busts to get cut and for late rounders to develop?
This is a fact. Given time to develop, later round QB seem to do just as well as first rounders. As the NFL continues to rush QBs, who are not experienced at running a Pro style offense, into the starting role, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an increase in the percentage of 1st round busts. Look at the number of run first, spread option QBs that have become elite without sitting for 2 or more years…..even shorter list isn’t it. Running QBs take even longer to develop than guys who are used to taking snaps under center. I don’t see any of this years QBs making a smooth transition to the NFL. All of these guys NEED to sit for at least a year.
For my own personal sanity, I am officially banning myself from reading/saying anything about Cam Newton.... starting the day after the Bowl game until the start of the combine.
good post..rec'd
For my own personal sanity, I am officially banning myself from reading/saying anything about Cam Newton.... starting the day after the Bowl game until the start of the combine.
50/50?
I don’t quite agree with your argument that drafting a QB in the first round is 50/50. The way I see it the fact that the 50% of starters not drafted in the 1st round are spread over 6 rounds makes me think drafting one in the 1st is better overall.
Great summary though. Thanks for the work.
Facts are facts
Some have said you must take a QB in the first round, hell, I was one of them. But if you let some time pass so QBs can bust and/or develop, 50% of the starting QBs came from other rounds.
For my own personal sanity, I am officially banning myself from reading/saying anything about Cam Newton.... starting the day after the Bowl game until the start of the combine.
Great Job Joe P.
Your a man of conviction, not miscreant:)
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
Thanks.....and I have been tried but never convicted :-)
For my own personal sanity, I am officially banning myself from reading/saying anything about Cam Newton.... starting the day after the Bowl game until the start of the combine.
Newton
And yeah, he’d sit for a year, and then BAM he’s in and ready due to the very good coaching of our very own Chan Gailey… I think he is the star we need on this team, and exactly what isn’t in the AFC East right now. He could be our X factor that brings us up from the basement… the biggest, strongest and most athletic QB in our division could be ours, and perhaps a better running game and a more stout D and in 3 years… we could be somebody
Go Bills because I'm a blind homer... sort of
Great job
You missed on Rodgers though. He sat three years.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft Owen Marecic in 2011" campaign.
Where did I miss???? I have Rodgers listed.
And thanks. Took much longer than I thought….but I am sure you know that already :-)
For my own personal sanity, I am officially banning myself from reading/saying anything about Cam Newton.... starting the day after the Bowl game until the start of the combine.
I missed it, you had him there. I read it wrong.
Yes, it does take forever. That’s why I write something, and then break for a while. If this was my job, it would be great. But with my full time job, big researched articles are few and far between.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft Owen Marecic in 2011" campaign.
Thanks for this Joe....
and trying to make sense of the QB “must have” scenario… While last year, I was admittedly on the TT bandwagon, I’m sorry folks, While I love Gabbert in particular, I see none of the QBs available as worth the #3 pick… And I think we can all agree, NONE of this class is ready to step in day one and I’m fanatical that we need to pick a day one starter at 3….
Went to my first "BB" meeting today... When I stood, introduced myself, and admitted I was a Billsaholic, the other members threw beer cans at me!!
Don't apologize for being on the Tebow bandwagon
I still wouldn’t bet against him. And, yeah, as far as taking a QB at #3…I am not “feeling it” this season.
For my own personal sanity, I am officially banning myself from reading/saying anything about Cam Newton.... starting the day after the Bowl game until the start of the combine.
rec'd
thanks Joe, great information!
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
i just found it strange
that flacco was put at solid after that pitt game. it’s not like they dont have the wepons. you guys think you’re finaly going to get jim kelly’s replacement? even though im a jets fan, i still want to see a competitive bills team, im tired of the NFC east getting called the toughest div.
"it's not easy being green"-kermit the frog
"we the mets are an improved ball club, now we lose in extra innings"-casy stengal
i cant spell a nosebleed
Nothing better than a strong division to spark a good rivalry. I look forward to that day.
We don’t know what we are going to get in the draft this year for a QB. If we take one at #3, I hope it is Gabbert….at #34 Kaepernick.
For my own personal sanity, I am officially banning myself from reading/saying anything about Cam Newton.... starting the day after the Bowl game until the start of the combine.
Flacco
There’s agreement on your view of Flacco. They may be in the minority here at B Rumbling. But they are here. Myself included.
Even P Manning has a bad game
If you look at his overall body of work, I thought solid was an accurate description of Flacco.
For my own personal sanity, I am officially banning myself from reading/saying anything about Cam Newton.... starting the day after the Bowl game until the start of the combine.
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
Keeper of a list
Thanks for all the research. I was thinking of this exact question earlier today: how long have QB’s actually been sitting before they are named the starter? Now I have a place to go for quick reference. It surprising how many actually did have signif bench time at first. And, the trend does seem to be moving the other way nowadays.
Miami: Henne, 2nd Round – played one game as a rookie due to injury of Pennington. Took over starting job in 2009 do to injury to Chad P. 2010 – Lost starting job to Chad P before getting it back to do injury to Chad P. (1 year)
I see a trend involving Chad Pennington here. Worst part, even an injured Chad Pennington was better than Hannie for the phins this year.
The Buffalo Bills, finding new and exciting ways to lose since January 8th, 2000.
by CanadianBillsFan on Feb 15, 2011 10:54 PM EST reply actions
As for the article, great peice. Well deserving rec.
What I think? Draft Ponder in the early second and make him sit for one, possibly two years behind Fitzy and then turn him loose and see what he can do. Sitting a QB has always been the best idea and pushing a young QB into starting his rookie season has lead to far more duds than studs.
Draft a QB, sit him, develop him into a star, then start him. Best and smartest way!
The Buffalo Bills, finding new and exciting ways to lose since January 8th, 2000.
by CanadianBillsFan on Feb 15, 2011 11:02 PM EST reply actions
Thanks....I have to see Ponder throw with velocity at the Combine before I can get remotely interested in him
At the Sr Bowl, I was not impressed with this arm or the way he spun the ball. It seemed like he threw a very “loose” ball and he floated at least two of the deep balls he threw causing them to hang and arrive late and underthrown. Not going to get it done in the wind at RWS. Add to that his injury history, and Ponder is not high on my list of QBs.
For my own personal sanity, I am officially banning myself from reading/saying anything about Cam Newton.... starting the day after the Bowl game until the start of the combine.
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
What did you think of Kaepernick at the Senior Bowl? I couldn’t see the game, and my computer is very choppy for tube vids. Hard for me to get a feel for guys’ throwing motions.
Here is something I posted earlier about Kaepernick and the Sr Bowl
Did you see Kaepernick throw the ball????
When DJ used the term "unreal" to describe the velocity Kaepernick can throw with, he wasn’t kidding. Plus, the RPM that he puts on the ball is fantastic…..the guy will have no problem cutting through the wind at RWS. The thing I want to know about him is if he is a film rat…..a first in, first out kind of guy. If he is, I think he can be ready in 2 years and I would be willing to take him in the second round and wait.
then I also found these two articles on Kaepernick
http://studentdev.jour.unr.edu/ggiorgi/?p=109
http://nevadasagebrush.com/blog/2010/08/31/10-stories-about-10/
Kaepernick is going to do all the drills at the combine. I am going to hold off on a full blown man-crush until then :-)
For my own personal sanity, I am officially banning myself from reading/saying anything about Cam Newton.... starting the day after the Bowl game until the start of the combine.
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein

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