Having written a tome on draft day trades, you had to know that I've been itching to write a trade scenario fanpost. As I demonstrated, first round trades are not rare and the draft value chart remains viable. So, in what will likely be the first of several wild speculative posts about what Buffalo could do on draft day, here is an idea to kick around.
I'm going to make an assumption for which I have no basis in fact; perhaps CHIX doesn't have a specific guy in mind for the #3 slot. I'm going to assume for the sake of this post that CHIX wants a defender (as opposed to Cam Newton) and further assume that the various defensive linemen generally considered to be top prospects are rated similarly by the Bills. With those assumptions in mind, Buffalo could drop 2 to 4 slots and still get one of those defensive linemen.
So, how to make it happen? I've got a handy chart on which I have each team's draft choices and point values. It's even color coded to show who is short picks and who has extra. It's way nerdier than the chart I used for the draft post on the main page. Anyway, I see that Arizona is short a 7th rounder while Cleveland has an extra 6th but no 7th. San Francisco, on the other hand, picks 7th and has extra picks in the 4th, 6th and 7th rounds. I'm targeting San Fran for a couple of reasons. First, they have extra picks to play with and, second, they have a new coach who may just want a particular guy who is on the board at 3.
Dropping back to 7 (1500) to 3 (2200) leaves a deficit of 700 points. Since Harbaugh is a new head coach he's going to have plans for his top 3 picks and be reluctant to give up on the 2nd and 3rd rounds--San Fran's 2nd and 3rd picks have a value of 660. (I'm assuming that CHIX doesn't covet any 49ers players that Harbaugh is willing to shed.) To grease the wheels CHIX could offer:
3 (2200) and 68 (250) for 7 (1500), 45 (450), 114 (66) and San Fran's 2012 2nd rounder (likely worth around 400).
The value (2450 for about 2400) would be there for each team.
Bills: 7, 34, 45, 99, 114, 121, 130, 164, 195 (plus San Fran's 2012 2nd rounder)
49ers: 3, 68, 76, 107, 138, 169, 185, 199, 200
The 49ers would be able to pick up that signature guy, perhaps Fairley if he's on the board, while the Bills would still get one of the top defenders. Buffalo would have no 3rd round selection but have a pair of 2nd round picks in 2011 AND 2011.
If CHIX decided to go nuts it would be easier to trade again out of 7 as the value is lower than that of 3. With Jack Del Rio on thin ice and known to fly up the board a trade with Jacksonville could be a second possiblity--netting Buffalo Jacksonville's 2011 3rd rounder and 2012 2nd rounder. All of a sudden CHIX begins to look like Belichek with a trio of second rounders in the next draft.