Can the draft affect the fragility of our Franchise?

by keysh67 on Feb 24, 2011 5:32 PM EST

I was submersed in draft related articles this morning and started to think about what we might decide to do with our #3 overall pick. Obviously at #3 we have a lot of very interesting directions that we could go in. What makes it even better is the fact that we have so many needs that it'd be hard to actually go wrong. We might argue about the importance of one position or another but in the end of the day, I want to trust Nix knows what he's doing and will pick the right guy.

Then I started to consider what the impact would be if we chose a player with Boom or Bust type grades, if the player ends up BUSTING - how will that affect our team? Are we in a position to push the reset button and start over in 4 years? My thought is that the position makes a difference, obviously you never want to admit defeat and have to start over but for most positions it's not that damaging. Where there is serious repercussions is at the QB position. Failing at this position is far more damaging long term to any franchise.

Then I started to think about the guys with questionable character issues, such as Newton, Mallet & Quinn. I wondered what the impact would be our franchise if we chose a guy that not only didn't pan out but also somehow became the nucleus of a fan uproar. The I started to think of how just how fragile our own franchise really is. L.A. is just a few years away so the threat is very real. Our owner has lived a very long and prosperous life but at his age things can go south very fast and the only succession plan is to sell to the highest bidder. Folks, I really don't think that OBD can afford to draft a bad apple, the overall risk could be the ultimate one - Death.

We cannot afford to make errors. We can't afford to lose fan and business support. This team is very fragile and the risk of losing it is high so we really can't afford to gamble on high risk individuals, especially not in the first few rounds and especially not at QB

So this brings me to a question that I would like to ask fellow Rumblers. Just how precarious do you feel our franchise is in? Do you think I am over thinking it? Can we afford to bet on a guy with a ton of character or Boom/Bust flags? Worse yet, can we afford to bet on a guy that has both? Is QB worse than another position?

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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I think that whoever Nix drafts in all rounds, Chan will coach all of them up. We will NOT go 4-12 this year.
Therefore: No, this draft will not be the demise of our franchise. The economy is our biggest enemy.

"Adversity is an opportunity for heroism." Marv Levy.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Feb 24, 2011 6:03 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Rec'd

Very true, if WNY had more jobs that place would be packed in spite of the losing records the last few years. Heck, I run into more WNY’ers in DC than I do IN BUFFALO!

"Being a Bills Fan is a Tough Job for Tough People…" – Luther6

by Montel on Feb 24, 2011 6:18 PM EST up reply actions

We are in a position to take a great player without having to worry about the Bust part

I am willing to sacrifice a little bit of the Boom to eliminate the Bust.

Anyone but Cam Newton at #3

The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein

by Joe P. on Feb 24, 2011 7:45 PM EST reply actions

I’m not. NE can trade back because they have an elite QB. The bills don’t have an elite impact player. If they wanna compete soon they need one.

MAYBE this will break the mold , we need to come to play sunday and this year we will not SURRENDER TO KNOW ONE THIS IS BUFFALOOO Godzilla nation
-abayarde

by uPitt_BillsFan on Feb 25, 2011 2:06 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

So in you’re opinion, we could take a chance on a guy that could turn out like Leaf or Russell and you have absolutely no fear that it won’t be our un-doing? Even if during this 3-4 year cycle of despair, our ownership gets auctioned off?

I want a Franchise QB just as much as the next guy, I just don’t think we have the luxury of being able to take too many chances on risky candidates. I feel our fragile ownership situation requires us to be more cautious, especially at our teams most important position.

Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience

by keysh67 on Feb 25, 2011 6:21 AM EST up reply actions

the only succession plan is to sell to the highest bidder

None of us know what is in Ralph Wilson’s will. He may have a very specific plan for ownership succession. It’s true that franchises do move, but the threat of L.A. has been hanging over this team for as long as I can remember.

by JapanJohn on Feb 24, 2011 8:40 PM EST reply actions

It’s an interesting thought. I agree that fan uproar will be greater if we drafted a QB that busts than it will be if we draft a Dlineman that busts. I don’t, however, think that the difference in fan uproar from either situation will tip the scale and end the Bills time in Buffalo. Busts hurt no matter what because they waste money and piss people off, but winning and losing is what ultimately drives revenue for a small market team. We can still win with another 1st round bust at any position, it will just be much, much more difficult.

But I guess even IF we start winning, it will take some good fortune for the Bills to stay in Buffalo beyond 2014

THAT is why i'm serious.

by Trashplate on Feb 24, 2011 10:05 PM EST reply actions

I dont think the franchise is in that bad of shape.

I dont buy into all the moving stuff. I do agree 100% on the QB busting being the hardest thing on a team compared to other positions.

Please base your arguments in provable facts instead of pulling stuff out of your rear. -CanadianBillsFan- This is why talk is cheap because the supply always exceeds the demand.

by jbbillfan on Feb 24, 2011 10:11 PM EST reply actions

I'm more worried about blackouts than the Bills leaving Buffalo.

If the Bills blow the #3 pick, I don’t think it will lead to the Bills leaving Buffalo, just fan apathy, that may lead to more blackouts.

We can see several people who all would be willing to buy the Bills once Mr Wilson passes.

First there is the group Jim Kelly claims to have.

Second is Tom Golisano, who after his nice windfall profit on selling the Sabres after rescuing might see the Bills in the same light,

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2011/2/3/1973037/tom-golisano-keeps-door-open-on-potential-bills-ownership

Third is Terry Pegula who sold his company for 4.7 Billion has the capital to pay cash and might see it as a good investment given the way the value of NFL franchises have increased, and said he could be interested as per Brian reported on a Bucky Gleason article.

Gleason writes: “Without getting too far ahead, sources said, he would be very interested in buying the Bills after the passing of owner Ralph C. Wilson Jr., now 92, if enough variables fall into place.”

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2010/12/2/1850502/report-terry-pegula-may-have-interest-in-buying-buffalo-bills

So in conclusion,

If the Bills blow the #3 draft pick, I don’t think it will lead to the Bills leaving Buffalo, just TV blackouts and empty seats,

Kylesaurus Rex Williams Pro Bowl 2010

by The Buffalo Kid on Feb 24, 2011 11:03 PM EST reply actions

First of all, thanks for the good links, good reads.
Second, I wasn’t exactly clear on one point, I guess what I was trying to say was that given the age and health status of our owner, the team could be on the block at any point in the next few years. The Bills are pretty much at an all time low and they really need to progress and not regress. Imagine if we were to pick a Ryan Leaf or a Jamarcus Russell type guy that would come in and be a problem from day one:
(a) The team would not progress for the next 3-4 years and would be in turmoil and would have to reset and start over after 4 years.
(b) the negativity around here would reach un bearable levels
© if season ticket holders start to dwindle
(d) most games get blacked out
(e) At the peak of this turmoil, Mr Wilson passes. The team goes on the market for the highest bidder. The turmoil might not scare away local investors but it sure as hell would drive the price down. The guy trying to relocate the team to L.A. doesn’t care because he’s starting over anyways.

Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience

by keysh67 on Feb 24, 2011 11:45 PM EST up reply actions

This is extreme,

but I completely agree. In fact, this post expands my comment on Joe’s dropping hammer post.

It’s not that anyone in the front office is going to make a pick based on the fragile status of the franchise, but it will in the back of their minds, and that makes me pretty certain they wont roll the dice with Cam Newton.

@majorgruve

by Undee on Feb 25, 2011 5:42 PM EST reply actions

Exactly the point that I was trying to make. It’s definitely a factor worth taking into consideration. I know most people would prefer not thinking about it but it’s there lurking in the shadows. Our franchise’s world will get shaken pretty hard within the next 4 years and this years draft success could definitely have a prominent part in what happens.

I think safer is better than riskier.

After reading a few articles and hearing Rivera speaking, I am starting to think that the Panthers might take Newton at #1, which would be great news because it removes the decision from our hands. I like Peterson and both Dareus & Fairley – and I really think it will be one of those 3 come draft day. Personally if they take Gabbert I would be down with that as well because it would mean that they believe he is “Franchise” material. There is great “safe” talent to choose from without having to take un-necessary chances with higher risk guys like Quinn & Newton.

Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience

by keysh67 on Feb 26, 2011 8:51 AM EST up reply actions