The Bills' Offense is just as Terrible as the Defense
by kaisertown on Mar 14, 2011 5:49 PM EDT
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PrintThe prevailing opinion on this blog seems to be that our defense was much worse than the offense. That Ryan Fitzpatrick was solid and the offense played pretty well, but that defense is what prevented Buffalo from having a more respectable season. But the reality is that Buffalo's offense, even when Ryan Fitzpatrick was starting, was just as bad as the defense. Everytime I see somebody talk about how defense is such a huge need that it's a bigger need than QB, I have a Zoolander moment.
In the 13 games in which Ryan Fitzpatrick was the QB, the Bills averaged 18.3 points per game. Compared to what teams did over the course of the entire season, that would have been the 26th best offensive production in the league.
In Fitz's 13 games, the defense gave up 24.8 points per game. That would have been 25th in the NFL.
For a point of comparison, the average amount of points scored per game, per team was 22.1. The median teams scored 22.3 ppg and gave up 21.65. The Bills' offense was just as far away from being productive as the defense was. The Bills did play better defenses than offenses last year, but not by enough to really change the numbers. Fitz played defenses that gave up 20.4 ppg (so, we averaged 2.1 fewer points per game than other teams did against our competition). Offenses that we played against scored 22.6 points per game (The Bills gave up 2.2 more ppg than our competition scored against other teams). The offense, under Ryan Fitzpatrick was not good. It was actually pretty awful. The wait and see crowd on Ryan Fitzpatrick and his 23 TD abberation needs to know this.
It's worth pointing out that I didn't count the points given up by the defense in overtime. The reason for that was sheer laziness because I didn't feel like doing the math involved in adding the extra time. I'm not sure how the NFL counts overtime stats, but I'm assuming they do it like hockey or baseball judges goaltending and pitching on a goals/runs per 60 minutes/9 innings. If anything, including the 9 points the defense gave up in roughly half a game would make the defense look better and including the zero points that the offense mustered in their three OT losses would obviously make their stats look even worse.
Even the turnovers paint this same picture. The Bills offense turned it over 27 times in Fitz's 13 games and that's not including the special teams fumbles. That extrapolates out to 33.2 turnovers. The league average was 26.9 and that includes special teams turnovers. So, the real average is more like 25ish. The Bills defense forced 18 turnovers which extrapolates out to a near league average 22.2. It's inexplicable that Fitz and the OL aren't considered something that needs to be upgraded as badly as the different groups of defenders (ie: DL run defenders, LB run defenders, LB pass rushers).
There are three specific arguments that always drive me nuts the most. One is that defense is more important than a QB, which isn't the point of this post, but is an absurd argument because comparing 11 guys to one guy is just so unfair. Buffalo can't draft an entire defense and nobody would argue that LCB or RDE is more important than QB. The second argument is one I'll touch on later. The third thing that people often say goes something along the lines of: "If Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn't a fluke" or "If he can have another good season" or anything similar to that. And those comments drive me nuts because Fitz wasn't good last year. I've showed how few points the offense scored with him. And here is where he finished in terms of QB rating:
18 - Jason Campbell - 84.5
19 - Carson Palmer - 82.4
20 - Kerry Collins - 82.2
21 - Alex Smith - 82.1
22 - Ryan Fitzpatrick - 81.8
23 - Shaun Hill - 81.3
24 - Donovan McNabb - 77.1
25 - Sam Bradford - 76.5
26 - Chad Henne - 75.4
That's the company that Ryan Fitzpatrick has in terms of success. Yet he's adored on this blog. People think that him simply not getting worse is good enough. He needs considerable improvement just to be an average starter. He needs major improvement to be an above average starter. Crazy pills....... One good point people often make is about improving the offense around Fitz. Upgrading RT and TE. But then nobody ever talks about the offense being anything other than an afterthought in terms off additions this offseason. It's as if people think Fitz is good enough and the solution to a better offense is to use the 4th round picks on a RT and TE.
I went back over all the mock drafts that have been posted here on Rumblings over the last couple months (I went back 10 pages and got tired of collecting data). I added up all the picks from the first three rounds and this is what was prioritized:
First round - 13.7% offense. And two of those picks were the result of trading down out of the top 15 picks.
Second round - 34% offense
Third round - 39.5% offense. Even after the first round, where the Bills have already gone defense in these mocks, there's still a lack of balance.
At last check, DynamicHero's community poll was running at about 10% of votes going offense in the first round. So, obviously, I'm not imagining this "defense, defense, defense" mentality that currently rules this blog.
The confusing thing for me is that these stats aren't some spin on a situation. I can already see the responses saying that you can prove anything with stats, but I'm not twisting numbers to make a point. This is the raw data, make of it what you will. My spin on the numbers is that Buffalo fans remember the big Fitz games, but conveniently forget when the defense did play well. Look at Buffalo's four wins. They've got the great Fitz comeback (and a game where the defense scored a TD and Fitz threw a pick six, so the offense scored 42 and the defense gave up 24, but added 7). Then there's the Miami game in which Fitz played well, but the team only scored 17 points as the defense held strong, giving up 14. Fitz didn't play particularly well in Buffalo's other two wins, 14-12 and 13-6 victories over two mediocre (or worse) football teams in Detroit and Cleveland. Where is the praise for Buffalo's defense in those wins? If the Bills' D was really as awful as they are often made out to be, then Buffalo is a 1 win football team.
The overtime losses are another point that fans often make when talking about how close to respectable Buffalo's record was. And Fitz was stellar against Baltimore. One of the best games I've ever seen a QB play. He was also pretty bad in a 13-10 loss to KC that took a full five quarters to settle. The Bills handled one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL and the defense did everything they could while the offense lost the game. Both the offense and defense played pretty well against Pittsburgh, but it's worth noting that the Bills held Roethlisberger and their O to a much lower total then they scored on average (16 vs. 23.4) than Fitz and our offense was able to score vs. that great defense (16 vs. 14.5). Yet, Fitzpatrick and company seem to get all the credit in Buffalo's supposed success this season. Nobody complains about the way that the team collapsed against Minnesota in a game where the Bills D tried to hold strong, forcing four turnovers while the offense completely collapsed, turning it over four times themselves. Or nobody complains about Fitz and the offenses' absurd six turnovers against New England in what fans had hyped up to be a barometer type game. We talked about how telling the results of that game could be, but apparently, nobody learned a single thing about the Bills offense and their three point output. Seriously, they scored three points and turned it over six times.
The other argument that drives me crazy that I mentioned earlier is that Buffalo doesn't need a QB right now. As if improving the rest of the team first and then going out to the backyard to pick a ripe one from the QB tree is an option. But building a team and then drafting a QB is a recipe for continued mediocrity. Young QBs rarely win in this league. It takes time to develop them into good players and it takes even more time for them to grow into players capable of beating the other top QBs in consecutive games to win the Super Bowl.
Here's the list of players on the Green Bay Packers Super Bowl winning roster that were actually on the team when they drafted Aaron Rodgers: Chad Clifton, Donald Driver, Scott Wells, Nick Barnett. And that's it. Or how about the NY Giants, the other team that drafted a QB, developed him and then won a SB with him recently. Here's the players on their 2007 roster who were already on the team when they drafted Eli: Rich Seubert, Jeremy Shockey, Osi Umenyiora, Michael Strahan, Amani Toomer, David Tyree. And that's it. There is no point in filling other needs before QB. Why fill the quicker developing positions before the slower developing positions? What's so urgent about fixing the run defense that makes it more important than drafting a QB?
The problem is that Bills fans seem to have given up on a Super Bowl. The attitude has become one of lowered expectations, not just for the present (which makes sense), but also for the future to the point that making the playoffs is good enough (which is just sad). It's a defeatist attitude of "let's not be laughed at anymore" or "let's focus on being relevant". But that's not good enough. Being average, playing Ryan Fitzpatrick and hoping that enough balls bounce Buffalo's way to make the playoffs is the worst possible goal that this franchise can have. C'mon fans, get your heads out of your ... err... remove brains from bottoms, wake up, smell the roses, smell the coffee, drink some of that coffee and then smell the roses some more. Dream big. As Derek Zoolander would say, "What is this? A center for ants? We need to think at least ... three times bigger than this"
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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And I should add that this isn’t just about drafting a QB in the first round. If the Bills don’t buy into any of the top QBs this year, then AJ Green should be a real consideration for them in the first round. Not necessarily the way that they go, but I don’t understand why he’s been dismissed by so many people. Kyle Rudolph would be a good 2nd round pick, but you rarely see that brought up. Everybody seemed to be on board with improving the OL last year, Buffalo did nothing to better it and now that seems to be on the back burner. Even athletic long armed guard prospects like Ben Ijalana and Danny Watkins should be considered for the 2nd round as RTs (Nix has a history with short RTs). The Bills need to address the offense almost as badly as they need to address the defense, QB or no QB.
"You mean @TWHITNER. It’s how he prefers to be referenced." - Jon Harrington
Yes sir Draft a QB and WR and TE
And watch our defense remain at the bottom of the league and we will be able to see how the new QB, WR and TE are able to pass and catch while laying on their backs.
Or we could draft all defense and remain at the bottom of the league in offense. Like Kai11 mentions, I’m not talking about offense being a bigger need, just a similarly big need, with QB right at the top of the list.
and we will be able to see how the new QB, WR and TE are able to pass and catch while laying on their backs.
So, you think the defense is worse than the offense, but that a new WR or TE wouldn’t be able to succeed because the OL is so bad? Which one is it? And I did mention that RT should be talked about more as a 2nd round option.
"You mean @TWHITNER. It’s how he prefers to be referenced." - Jon Harrington
rec'd
good logic here kaisertown
i am just not a beleiver in Gabbert or Newton. Jake Locker, Ponder or Kaeperneck for me
Great post K-town. I’m with freddy on his feelings on QBs.
I change my mind every other day regarding who the Bills should draft.
I guess we should not think defense or offense and just draft BPA. However, I do think our O-line will be better this year with Bell and Wood having a full year to regain their strength after those horrible injuries.
Thank God I’m not the GM.
"Adversity is an opportunity for heroism." Marv Levy.
by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Mar 14, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions
yep...I'm with you guys.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
The problem is that Bills fans seem to have given up on a Super Bowl. The attitude has become one of lowered expectations, not just for the present (which makes sense), but also for the future to the point that making the playoffs is good enough (which is just sad). It’s a defeatist attitude of “let’s not be laughed at anymore” or “let’s focus on being relevant”. But that’s not good enough. Being average, playing Ryan Fitzpatrick and hoping that enough balls bounce Buffalo’s way to make the playoffs is the worst possible goal that this franchise can have. C’mon fans, get your heads out of your … err… remove brains from bottoms, wake up, smell the roses, smell the coffee, drink some of that coffee and then smell the roses some more. Dream big. As Derek Zoolander would say, “What is this? A center for ants? We need to think at least … three times bigger than this”
Amen brother……Amen.
That paragraph right there is why I am always looked at as a negative nelly………but it is so very spot on.
The score dictated they pass
by norcaliangelsfan on Mar 14, 2011 6:24 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
That is so weird
i loved watching the offense last year and really thought the numbers would be better.
Well, obviously the numbers don’t lie. The argument for a defense heavy draft still stands though, due to the quality of the players available. Obviously if there was a QB available that was a better option than a guy like Dareus we would take him. The problem is, that the only offensive player most drafters see as a #3 option is Green, in the one position we really don’t need right now. Even is we did need a WR, You need the QB and offensive line to let a WR so his thing.
Even in the second round, most of the talent leans heavy on the defense. I do however advocate drafting a guy like Locker at 34 if he was there.
This team is more than this draft away from putting a solid team together and Nix knows it. They will get the best guys available when they pick and i dont think they will be looking to single out one side of the ball over the other.
"The Buffalo Bills have just exploded all over the Cincinnati Bangles"
-Steve Tasker-
by billsoferie on Mar 14, 2011 7:21 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
You can arrange figures to read anyway you want them to.
As most of the coaches say “Stats are for fools”
Are you saying the stats for this offense are being read incorrectly?
The production, points scored and win totals are all being misread? Is that what I’m gathering from your comment?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
You can arrange figures to read anyway you want them to.
Not necessarily. There is no way that these numbers can be arranged to show that the offense was better than the defense, especially to the degree that people assume that it was.
"You mean @TWHITNER. It’s how he prefers to be referenced." - Jon Harrington
couldn't agree more
if OBD sees Newton or Gabbert as a franchise QB then they have to take him (if available). I am just concerned that neither fit the bill as a franchise QB. But your logic is perfect, get the QB while the team is getting better and hopefully that QB is ready when the rest of the team is ready.
I cannot disagree with most of your logic but I read an interesting comment on another post. I’m going to paraphrase… After starting 0-8, Buffalo went 4-4 while taking teams like Baltimore and Pittsburgh to the limit.
Buffalo’s offense scored high in those games, and if you turn some of the opposing FG’s to punts and TD’s to FG’s or punts….we win. While we may have done decently as a defense later in the year in some games, don’t forget what 3rd string RB Joe McNight did (158 yrs rushing). I think that is the argument for drafting defense. I, like many others are not opposed to drafting a QB, but the feeling I get agree with the likes of Mike Mayok (does like Gabbert) and especially Mel Kiper Jr. that the so called top QBs are not worthy of a top ten pick in this years draft.
"Sit down and watch my Buffalo Bills destroy your Kingdome" - Abayarde
I like your logic here. There is some merits to kaisertown’s arguments, however, his overall message is quite reactionary. It’s impossible to put your offense in the best light if you go into a game knowing your defense is going to give up points in bunches. Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t great, but he could be good enough to weather us through at least another year or two while the defense improves.
From watching the games, it seems to me that offensive output was compromised by a distrust in the defense. Throw in an inexperienced receiver core and an unstable o-line situation and you’re not going to score very often. I think stability on offense is the key here. There is more to be gained by developing the offense under Fitzpatrick, and fortifying the defense than retooling the offense this season. I don’t think that means the plan isn’t Super Bowl. Of course it is, just there are too many steps to take in one offseason to get there.
Besides, even when our defense has been acceptable over the last 6 or 7 years, its been terribly boring. I’m ready to see some heads roll….. If that means passing on Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton, so be it.
Another season (maybe), another year getting on the roller coaster. Hope the ride lasts more than 16 games :)
by syrbillsfan on Mar 15, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Valid points
The better the offense is……. the longer they are on the field.
Therefore:
The better the defense will be because of that. They are on the field a lot less.
"Adversity is an opportunity for heroism." Marv Levy.
by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Mar 15, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s impossible to put your offense in the best light if you go into a game knowing your defense is going to give up points in bunches.
But the opposite is also true. It’s impossible for one side of the ball to be worse to the point that they drag the other side all the way down to their level. If the defense was worse, they would have been worse statistically. The turnovers would be a good example. Our offense was one of the most turnover prone groups in the whole league, obviously that hurts the defense. We had one of the most pass happy offenses in the league and Fitz had a low completion %, not defense friendly traits.
Most importantly, we had very slow starting offense with Fitz. The Bills only scored 33 first quarter points in the 13 games that Fitz started. That’s barely 2.5 points per and that’s not the defenses fault. That’s something the defense had to overcome in their wins against Detroit, Miami and Cleveland as well the close losses against Pittsburgh, KC and Chicago. The defense certainly did few favors for the offense (other than winning a few games where the offense scored 17, 14 and 13), but the offense didn’t any favors for the D either (other than should have been wins against Jacksonville and Baltimore).
There is more to be gained by developing the offense under Fitzpatrick, and fortifying the defense than retooling the offense this season. I don’t think that means the plan isn’t Super Bowl
To what end? How are you going to win a SB with Fitz? The Bills need to address the position ASAP because that’s going to be a necessity for eventually winning a SB. I showed how many players were still on the roster by the time that Eli and Rodgers won a SB.
"You mean @TWHITNER. It’s how he prefers to be referenced." - Jon Harrington
by kaisertown on Mar 15, 2011 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
After starting 0-8, Buffalo went 4-4 while taking teams like Baltimore and Pittsburgh to the limit.
Baltimore was right in the middle of that 0-8 start and Buffalo started taking teams to the limit with defense. The offense got significantly worse as the season wore on and defense was what won them some games. In Fitz’s final five starts, the Bills scored 56 points.
Buffalo’s offense was just solid against Pittsburgh and I mentioned how the defense did better against the Steelers than the rest of the league did compared to how the offense was more average against them.
Buffalo’s offense scored high in those games, and if you turn some of the opposing FG’s to punts and TD’s to FG’s or punts
You can really only say that about three starts. Baltimore, Jacksonville and the first time they played New England. And you can easily flip that argument on it’s head. The offense lost the game against KC. The Bills D held Chicago to 14 points and the Bills took the lead early in the 4th quarter. The Bills then forced a three and out. Fitz threw a pick, giving the Bears a drive start at the 23 yard line, Buffalo gave up the game winning TD and the offense couldn’t tie it up in their couple opportunities to do so. The Minnesota game started with the defense picking off a pass, forcing a punt and then picking off another pass. CJ Spiller lost a fumble on a kick return, Fitz lost a fumble that was returned to the five yard line and the offenses 41 first half yards never gave the team a chance.
don’t forget what 3rd string RB Joe McNight did (158 yrs rushing). I think that is the argument for drafting defense.
I’m not overly concerned with one meaningless weak 17 game. Especially one in which the offense was just as abysmal as the defense.
"You mean @TWHITNER. It’s how he prefers to be referenced." - Jon Harrington
I love numbers!
I can almost see the nerdy spreadsheet…..
This is the type of post I love because it contrasts the numbers with the general perception. Generally, many of us believe(d) that Fitz was a pretty fair QB. True, not many of us believe(d) he was going to turn out to be the second coming of Jim Kelly….but ‘servicable’ represents a huge step up from ‘blech’. Your excellent post suggests that Fitz is a notch below servicable even if he’s better than blech.
It can always get worse. Let me tell you how.
good post
agree with you in that the offense sucked just as bad as the defense…
but i still think we should only draft a qb if we believe there is a good one… all the argument that the qb is the most important position make no sense if there no good one to be picked… if you reach for a qb with this argument you most likely will end up with a jamarcus or alex smith…
the argument to draft a defense is because this draft fell that way… the draft is top loaded with defense… any other draft, there might be one or 2 good qbs and a bunch of offensive tackles… but this draft makes sense with defense…
personally, i dont believe there is a qb at #3… i would draft a good to great defensive player than take a gamble on a qb…
teams like pittsburgh, greenbay or giants pick a qb at the right moment… you gave the example of the giants building around eli after 2004… but giants went to the playoffs in 2002… steelers are always successful with our without qb… packers picked rodgers in 2005… they were in playoffs in 2004… all those qbs enter into a successful franchise…
you need to breed success slowly… you cannot draft success… you pick newton or gabbert… and they will be forced to save a franchise out of playoffs for 11 years… that’s not how you win superbowl…
let’s get to the playoffs first… it’s not a sad attitude… it’s the right attitude… imo
by statcruncher on Mar 14, 2011 8:49 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
again to stress on one point
i dont think there is a desire for defense in this draft like you said… its just that there seems to be no good qb and a lot of defense up top…
if this draft had no qb in the top but 5 good offensive tackles, you wouldnt be worried that everyone seems to want defense…
by statcruncher on Mar 14, 2011 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t care what the stats say. my eyes seen something different.
I think time of possession is the real variable that will throw a wrench in your theory.
kinda hard to put up a lot of points when your getting run over and making every rb in the league look like an all pro.
kinda hard to score when the other team eats the clock up.
I would check into that.
by jayvsthevolcano on Mar 14, 2011 9:08 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 2 recs
TOP is a two way street. The offense wasn’t good at holding onto the ball at all. The Bills had the 18th most punts in the NFL and when you combine that with their low number of TDs (9th fewest), low number of FG attempts (2nd fewest in NFL) and high number of turnovers (showed in post how far above average the Bills offense was at losing the ball), it should be clear that the defense isn’t the reason that the offense didn’t do better. They both stunk.
I didn’t take the time to add up the stats for only Fitz’s games with punts, TDs and FGs, but they can’t possibly pull those numbers down to the point that make Buffalo’s offense look better than the defense.
There are also plenty of teams with bad defenses that still have good offenses. Houston, Indy and Jacksonville come to mind. How come those teams didn’t have offensive numbers as bad as their defense if that kind of correlation existed?
"You mean @TWHITNER. It’s how he prefers to be referenced." - Jon Harrington
Thank you thank you thank you
I’ve had these same exact thoughts. I cannot understand why so many Bills fans think the offense was solid and doesn’t need any major additions. Despite Fitz’s 23 TD’s, he was still a poor starter and the offense as a whole stunk. This team needs a QB badly and soon (immediately).
A couple of big games shouldn’t mask the terrible play the rest of the time. Great job providing the data proving this and articulating it so well. As always, I agree and rec’d
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
by Kurupt on Mar 14, 2011 9:22 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
You have won the day............
Unfortunately I think it will be back to square one in a day or two. I got a little love for my Mayock draft of Gabbert-Rudolph for one and two, but not much. My hope and wish is BPA and not the consistent Defensive theme. After you, Jaeger, K wrote about Martez Wilson not being the best choice at #34 it only took a couple of days for that bandwagon to re-start.
Keep fighting the good fight :)
I think we need all the help we can get, but IMO at the top of this draft there are much better defensive players than offensive players. At #3 the only offensive players that I want are a top tier LT, QB or if we draft another position I want a can’t miss pro bowler. I don’t see those guys in this years draft (I might be persuaded about A. J. Green). But this draft has a lot of very good defensive lineman and that’s a position we could use, so that’s why my pick for us is Marcell Dareus.
This is the best response to the "Fitz should be our QB" attitude
I’d rec it more than once if I could
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft Owen Marecic in 2011" campaign.
Qb has just been so bad
I hear ya though… gotta get a real QB in there
I'm waitin'..... @killascript on twitter
Well Then
Why the heck don’t we go get one. All the smoke of a great post, but why don’t we go get the god forementioned franchise QB. Answer that one. Then write a post like this. You make it sound so easy and so automatic and so duh we can’t do anything until we have the QB in place. Let’s just go out and get one. We do need more on offense, that is obvious. So isn’t giving up over 160 rushing yards on average a game. We have got the #3 pick in the draft so lets go get our face of the future. Then, I think Nix mentioned something like that Ryan needs some help, so our new face of the franchise would need some help too possibly. I like the A.J. Green pick at #3, IMO he is the best player coming out. Still, if it is a QB that makes the difference then let’s go get one. I will drive.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
Why the heck don’t we go get one. All the smoke of a great post, but why don’t we go get the god forementioned franchise QB. Answer that one.
Maybe they will. If you look historically at what teams do in Buffalo’s situation, they often do take the QB. Definitely more than any other position.
I like the A.J. Green pick at #3, IMO he is the best player coming out
And you’re practically the only person who has been outspoken about that. And I’m not even saying Buffalo should take Green at WR, only that I don’t understand why he’s not even a consideration for so many fans. He’d be a great asset for whenever Buffalo does address the QB position.
I think Nix mentioned something like that Ryan needs some help, so our new face of the franchise would need some help too possibly.
Definitely, but we’d have plenty of time to go out and get that help. The Giants completely overhauled their OL for Eli and went out and got Plax Burress in FA. GB drafted Jennings and Finley for Rodgers, re-did their interior OL and both teams built stellar defenses. Buffalo would have plenty of time to build around the QB and if they aren’t capable of doing it, they’ll fail regardless of whether or not they draft a QB.
"You mean @TWHITNER. It’s how he prefers to be referenced." - Jon Harrington
Rec from me.
I have always said Fitz is a decent backup QB at best and not part of the solution. After Stevie coined the term, the Amish Rifle, I updated it to the Amish slingshot.
Fitz is a nice story, but is not a long term solution. He has many shortcomings.
He is a much better passer throwing from the shotgun, when I looked through game logs, I noticed how many of his interceptions came under center, which is why Gailey probably had him throw out of the shotgun so much. That takes away your power running game, because if fitz is under center, defensive lineman know to play run first, because he is not the same passer under center. It also takes away play action, because the secondary knows if fitz is under center, stay with your guy and don’t bite play action, you have a shot at a pick, the D line will stay at home and get the RB if it’s a run.
wish the Bills would just go get Locker, I have been the biggest Locker advocate on this board since last year, this is the QB I have always wanted the Bills to have, a guy that is incredibly accurate on the move, I’m not big on this you have to be a pocket passer notion that permeates this message board. He is the guy that can keep a play alive with his feet, then cash it in when the secondary comes off their receiver to stop him scrambling and he throws it over top for an easy TD.
I now the Bills will never draft Locker, because I don’t think the FO is sophisticated enough to see the possibilities, but when he is leading the team that drafts him deep into the playoffs 2-4 years from now, I will be the first saying I told you so like so many other draft picks over the years on various other bills message boards, I think Locker is the one franchise QB in this draft, and time will prove me right.
Kylesaurus Rex Williams Pro Bowl 2010
by The Buffalo Kid on Mar 15, 2011 1:31 AM EDT reply actions
After Stevie coined the term, the Amish Rifle,
After thinking about it, if I remember correct, it was Drayton Florence who coined the Amish Rifle nickname, my bad.
Kylesaurus Rex Williams Pro Bowl 2010
by The Buffalo Kid on Mar 15, 2011 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I now the Bills will never draft Locker, because I don’t think the FO is sophisticated enough to see the possibilities, but when he is leading the team that drafts him deep into the playoffs 2-4 years from now, I will be the first saying I told you so like so many other draft picks over the years on various other bills message boards, I think Locker is the one franchise QB in this draft, and time will prove me right.
Sounds like the perfect QB for teams like the Colts, Patriots, Packers, Saints,Chargers or Steelers. They seem like they have pretty sophisticated front offices.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
Jake Locker would be a great pick for the Colts. He’s already been playing in a pro-style system, has shown at one point the ability to dominate, and he could learn behind someone who he wouldn’t need to replace anytime soon. I’ve said it in the past, but I think the Colts need to find a solution to life without Peyton Manning.
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 15, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds like the perfect QB for teams like the Colts, Patriots, Packers, Saints,Chargers or Steelers. They seem like they have pretty sophisticated front offices.
He would be a great pick for the Colts, Patriots, and Saints.
Manning, Brady and Brees are far enough in their careers, where he wouldn’t upset the incumbent, because they know they are top dogs and have alot of years in the league.
The Packers, Chargers, and Steelers, not so much, Rodgers, Rivers, and Rothlisberger are entering their primes, they would see a Locker pick as the team not believing in them no more.
The landing spot besides the Pats that scares me the most is Miami. I really don’t want Locker getting drafted by an AFC east team and carving us up twice a year for 10+ years.
Kylesaurus Rex Williams Pro Bowl 2010
by The Buffalo Kid on Mar 16, 2011 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions
The landing spot besides the Pats that scares me the most is Miami.
I have absolutely no confidence that Miami would develop him properly, so I’m not nearly as worried.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
by WhyBillsWhy on Mar 16, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I have absolutely no confidence that Miami would develop him properly
With Locker, it’s not so much you have to develop him properly, it is you have to use his strengths properly which are throwing on the move, and ability to escape the pocket and still make plays with his feet or arm.
He would be very dangerous running the wildcat for Miami.
If you want a QB in the Manning/Brady mold, yeah, he needs some development and Miami probably wouldn’t get it right.
If you want a QB in the Elway mold, Locker doesn’t really need much development to start, just pocket passing, Locker is probably a little bit bet passer on the move than Elway was.
Mayock says Locker throws as well as anyone he has seen video of on the move and I agree 100%.
I sure hope Locker doesn’t land in Miami or NE.
Kylesaurus Rex Williams Pro Bowl 2010
by The Buffalo Kid on Mar 17, 2011 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Locker doesn’t really need much development to start, just pocket passing
Every decent pro QB needs to pass from the pocket on a semi-regular basis. Otherwise, there’s no mystery to his game and defenses will eat him alive. I appreciate that you’re sold on Locker and want others to see his potential. I like him as much as any QB in this draft, but his game needs development and playing him right away and just having him throwing on the move every play would absolutely destroy that kid. No one is invincible.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
Question Kaisertown?
Was Brian’s Comparing Ryan Fitzpatrick To “Replacement-Level” Quarterbacks the straw that broke your back and made you post this?
Kylesaurus Rex Williams Pro Bowl 2010
by The Buffalo Kid on Mar 15, 2011 1:55 AM EDT reply actions
wait – so a 4-12 team was bad on both offense and defense? no way!
I think the reason why most people pick defense in their mocks is because most aren’t sold on Gabbert or Newton at #3. I don’t think any fan here (well, not many at least) is delusional enough to think that Fitz is the answer for us. Just that the QB class of 2011 is pretty mediocre looking right now.
That’s the company that Ryan Fitzpatrick has in terms of success. Yet he’s adored on this blog.
and the reason for that is because he was exciting to watch – good or bad – and had the best season since J.P. Losman “breakout” year. I think us fans just forgot how to enjoy football games after DJ lead football boredom games.
The Bills did play better defenses than offenses last year, but not by enough to really change the numbers.
I don’t know – the Bills faced 7 out of the top 10 defenses and only 2 top 10 offenses……..
When you innovate, you've got to be prepared for everyone telling you you're nuts.
by J2 on Mar 15, 2011 8:58 AM EDT reply actions 4 recs
Kaiser wasn't just talking about using the 3rd pick on the offensive side....
He was talking about what has appeared to be a lack of offensive picks across the board. Hence:
First round – 13.7% offense. And two of those picks were the result of trading down out of the top 15 picks.
Second round – 34% offense
Third round – 39.5% offense. Even after the first round, where the Bills have already gone defense in these mocks, there’s still a lack of balance.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
well the 1st round always gets the news – right? ha! I love when you leave a small tidbit of info that people think that’s all i’m thinking – so here’s the long winded response:
first round we’ve been over and I feel that lack of solid QB is the reason – unless people want AJ Green – which I think he’ll be good but again that’s building from the outside in – so that’s personal preference to me.
considering this is one of the deepest defensive line classes, well maybe ever, it’s no surprise at all that the #34 pick is littered with defensive linemen or LBs either – I bet if you were to look at those mocks there wouldn’t be a boat load of corners and safeties – but LB’s and defensive linemen because it’s a deep draft. Don’t most mockers mock BPA/Need?
I also think there is more to the story than what Kaiser is suggesting – don’t get me wrong because I understand the point of the post – but I don’t necessarily agree that offense is more of a priority right now than defense save QB. I think we have a good WR corp, a good RB tandem and a solid interior.
TE and T are needs but is there one worth #3? no – is there one or 2 worth #34? probably but with such good defensive talent it’s not hard to see why people are mocking defensive personnel.
Simply put – the better players in the draft this year are defensive – we really shouldn’t be surprised that people are mocking the better talent.
Look at Mayocks’s top 32 prospects – 20 of them are defensive – we really shouldn’t be surprised when mock drafts have the Bills taking defensive players – especially in round 1 and 2 if QB isn’t what we want it to be. #34 is basically a 1st round pick and when the better talent is on the defensive side then I have to wonder why it’s such a surprise to some people – especially kaiser who knows his sh** – seems like the obvious answer is staring us right in the face….
When you innovate, you've got to be prepared for everyone telling you you're nuts.
by J2 on Mar 15, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the reason why most people pick defense in their mocks is because most aren’t sold on Gabbert or Newton at #3
I think that’s a reason. But then, after already taking a defensive player, mockers still leaned defense for their other picks. It’s undeniable that the prevailing opinion on this blog was that there was a large gap between the success of the offense and the success of the defense.
I don’t know – the Bills faced 7 out of the top 10 defenses and only 2 top 10 offenses……..
I only counted the Fitz games, so that takes out a Jets game and the Packers game. And I did the math on what opposing offenses and defenses gave up vs. other teams and compared it to how Buffalo fared and it really didn’t change the numbers.
"You mean @TWHITNER. It’s how he prefers to be referenced." - Jon Harrington
Right now the reason why I give a tip of the hat to drafting defense over offense in the first round is ONLY because I feel that the most talented players at the #3 spot will be almost completely on the defensive side of the ball.
The 2011 Colorado Rockies - Starring Johnny Herrera as THE ANSWER
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by UZ on Mar 15, 2011 9:23 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
REC’d. It is folly to take a less talented player at a need position over a potential playmaking star. If the Bills want to stay mediocre, draft for need.
IT doesn’t seem (given the Spiller pick) that Nix drafts for need in the 1st round, so we should eventually get out of the hole that we’re in, cross your fingers
Another season (maybe), another year getting on the roller coaster. Hope the ride lasts more than 16 games :)
by syrbillsfan on Mar 15, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
If the (usually) consensus best QB in the draft isn’t considered a top 3 pick, why is that player suddenly unable to be a great selection for the Bills?
Name me 1 defender who alone won games – Super Bowls – for his team? Even Bruce Smith disappeared in big games, and you know what? – the teams still won those non SB games.
I’d rather they find the talent from the biggest point producer, not considered a top pick, and take him. All these experts are pushing paper thoughts. How in the world can anyone say that Dareus, Peterson, or Miller make this team a winner on their own? What greater impact can be found if they’re not bold enough to secure a QB with their early pick. Picked 3rd or 30th, if that QB pans out, no one will care where they were drafted. Tom Brady wasn’t on anyone’s radar outside of a flier by NE, and look how he turned out. Being afraid to take a guy because someone in a suit says it’s a risk is no way to build a winner. Think outside the box and find talent that works best for the team. BPA is only true if it fits with the team.
Oh my head explode. I will never understand how any player could be more important to land than a QB. Adrian Peterson. Chris “thinks he’s a professional sprinter” Johnson. Those guys are at the top of their class. Problem is, neither is a huge factor in their team winning games.
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 15, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s a fine type of thinking if you have good players.
The Bills don’t have good players ANYWHERE. It’s not like getting an amazing QB will fix this team. If a QB was the only piece left to make the Bills into a contender, I’d agree that ‘reaching’ for Gabbert or Newton would be advisable. But in this case, the Bills could use playmakers all over the field and if the best guy available in that regard is an OLB, CB or DE, go for it I say.
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Paul McCartney Can't Play Piano
Burgundy Wave - SBnation's Colorado Rapids site
Crystal Palace FC - Eternally a point from relegation (._. )
by UZ on Mar 16, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Disagree
I don’t know what games you were watching, but the offense was’nt as bad as our defense.
I recall many games where yards and accolades piled up in the final quater, when the outcome was decided. The game vs the Bengals was one I think they played inspired.
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 15, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
The offense was right near the bottom of the league
just like the defense….
They both stunk, isn’t that the point?
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Some of the games that I watched were the 14-12 win against Detroit, the 13-6 win against Cleveland, the 17-14 win against Miami, the 13-10 loss to KC, the four turnover game in which the OL was a joke and the offense scored 7 points as the game ended against Minnesota and the six turnover, three point performance against NE in what was advertised to be a meaningful game in which Bills fans would know how much progress the team had made.
The offense was really good in two games. Cincy and Baltimore. They were solid in a few others and terrible in the majority of their games. The defense was good in a handful of games, solid in a couple others and terrible in the remainder of their games. That’s the reality of it. They both stunk pretty equally.
"You mean @TWHITNER. It’s how he prefers to be referenced." - Jon Harrington
by kaisertown on Mar 15, 2011 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I had to slap myself, stuck thinking I had written this.
It’s so very true. Stats don’t tell the story of success in many cases. It’s sad to me that we wait nearly 5 years for a 3000 yard passer and that in doing so, Fitzpatrick has become a folk hero to the masses. He’s the same QB most of us thought was a risk every time he dropped back. He may have shown improvement, but there were quite a few instances where the receiver bailed him out of a sure INT.
The bottom line for me is his record as a starter. I’ll take someone like Roeithlisberger, who doesn’t pile up stats – just W’s.
I don’t want to hate on the guy, because he’s about as likeable as Steve Tasker and he has a place with the Bills. But why should anyone say the team is set at QB based of off 13 games last year? Remember when Trent Edwards went all efficient on the league’s backside, and we all were giddy with the thought of him being the long-term solution? Remember his strong start and quick fizzle?
It’s important to me to see Fitzpatrick play this season. I think no matter the situation, be it a QB they draft or not, Fitzy has to start to see if his game builds or if it was a fluke. In the mean time, it might be a good idea to have a backup plan. That’s certainly not coming from Brohm or Brown. (I hate that Brohm stinks. It really shouldn’t be the case.)
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 15, 2011 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
A few facts of reason first
Buffalo is a small-market team that has not made the playoffs in over ten years. You cannot be a Super Bowl team, until you make the playoffs first.
Secondly, despite the close games, every team in the league has those.
(3.) Teams ran for over 200 yards against the Bills eight times – If you cannot stop the run, then your offense doesn’t see the field.
(4.) This draft does not have a stud QB coming out – Andrew Luck went back to Stanford.
(5.) This year’s draft has great talent on the Defensive side of the ball. So, you should take the best players available, regardless of position – That seems to be on Defense for the most part.
- So, I agree to disagree.
Buffalo is a small-market team that has not made the playoffs in over ten years. You cannot be a Super Bowl team, until you make the playoffs first.
I’m not sure why the first half is relevant. Of course the Bills won’t go from terrible to SB contenders overnight. But the team has to be built to win a SB in five years, knowing that they’ll make the playoffs before that. The plan can’t be to build a playoff team and then turn it into a SB team.
It’s like starting a business. Your goal isn’t to make the capital that you invested into it back. The goal is to make a profit. Aim for the profit and you’ll make your money back in the process. The Bills need to think bigger than just making the playoffs. They need to think bigger than one offseason at a time.
"You mean @TWHITNER. It’s how he prefers to be referenced." - Jon Harrington
by kaisertown on Mar 15, 2011 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
kaisertown, I’m glad you made the points you did, but I’m struggling to understand why you don’t understand why the perception exists as is. At its best last season, Buffalo’s offense was absolutely brilliant. At its best last season, Buffalo’s defense was good enough to a) beat a crappy team, or b) compete with a good team for a little while. This is how these things are remembered.
Obviously, your point is valid. There is no unit that should be specifically focused on. But most of us have known that for a while, and even considering your headline, you can make a valid argument either way.
Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford
by Brian Galliford on Mar 15, 2011 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
At its best last season, Buffalo’s offense was absolutely brilliant.
No offense Brian, but I find that statement a complete reach.
The O went nowhere against the Bengals until 2 starters in the secondary went out with injuries, and Baltimore had suspect CBs to begin with and ended drives by outsmarting themselves by passing in 3rd and short situations killing drives, which gave fitz more opportunities to make plays.
I hardly find the Bills O brilliant at its best last season,
Kylesaurus Rex Williams Pro Bowl 2010
by The Buffalo Kid on Mar 17, 2011 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, you’re pretty much arguing semantics, but I’ll still disagree with the spirit of your argument. Any time you’re 0-5 and drop 34 points on Baltimore in Baltimore, it’s pretty damned impressive.
Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford
by Brian Galliford on Mar 17, 2011 6:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I have to disagree with most of this post for one simple reason
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“The confusing thing for me is that these stats aren’t some spin on a situation”
I am sure you did not mean to but you used data that is not complete and is unfair. We all do this and most of the time we dont mean to, but stats can lie even when we think they are accurate.
My biggest point of disagreement is that most of your stats compare our offense, defense, and Fitz. to the rest of the league. We all know that we did not play the rest of the league. We played a much harder schedule then anyone except the Bengals.
Would our offenseive #‘s and Fitz’s #‘s have looked better if we had played in the NFC West? That is where some of the QB’s you comare Fitz. to played and that is not a fair comparison. IMO you could swap Fitz with any of the QB’s in your list and he would gain 10 points, and they would lose 10 points because of the different defenses they played.
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“I’ve showed how few points the offense scored with him”
IMO you have showed how few points Fitz. and the offense has scored against some of the best defeses in the league, and then compared that number to a league avg.
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“In the 13 games in which Ryan Fitzpatrick was the QB, the Bills averaged 18.3 points per game.”
I dont know how you get that but I used NFL. com stats and came up with 259 points for an average of 19.92 points per game. This would be good enough for 23rd in the league, and again we played better defense’s than avg.
I agree with you on the turnovers. They were costly and to many. This is part of Fitz’s game, and I dont see it as something that will change much as he is going to take his shots, but some of the turnovers were just due to us being a young team. That part I hope will improve.
I am not a huge Fitz fan and I do hope we have his replacement sooner then later, but I can see the logic of passing on offense this year. If there was a top 5 LT or QB then I would be all for giving our first round pick to the offense, but I dont see it that way.
Please base your arguments in provable facts instead of pulling stuff out of your rear. -CanadianBillsFan- This is why talk is cheap because the supply always exceeds the demand.
by jbbillfan on Mar 15, 2011 3:33 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
excellent and valid points – rec’d
When you innovate, you've got to be prepared for everyone telling you you're nuts.
by J2 on Mar 15, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont know how you get that but I used NFL. com stats and came up with 259 points for an average of 19.92 points per game.
I didn’t count the Florence TDs or the Spiller KR for a TD. So, my number is 238, which is where I got the 18.3.
We all know that we did not play the rest of the league. We played a much harder schedule then anyone except the Bengals.
I accounted for that. I showed the raw data and then did the math as to how many points our opponents gave up and scored on average and compared what the Bills did to that. I’ll repost it here:
The Bills did play better defenses than offenses last year, but not by enough to really change the numbers. Fitz played defenses that gave up 20.4 ppg (so, we averaged 2.1 fewer points per game than other teams did against our competition). Offenses that we played against scored 22.6 points per game (The Bills gave up 2.2 more ppg than our competition scored against other teams).
The numbers are both complete and fair.
"You mean @TWHITNER. It’s how he prefers to be referenced." - Jon Harrington
I can see how you would want to do that
but then when you feed your 18.3 number back into the list of other teams to get a league ranking of 26th dont you think the other 25 teams above us scored some defense and ST points? They did, I looked and the more accurate ranking would be my 23rd when you take the other teams non offense points off from their teams also. I see what you were trying to do, but unless you do that to the other teams then you throw the numbers off.
It is the same for your 20.4 ppg number. This number includes ST, and defensive points on all the other teams, but you have extracted them from our offense. If you are going to use the 20.4 number then you must also use my 19.92 number and a 23rd ranking.
with these numbers we see that the Bills scored less than .5 ppg then their opponents did. Also their offense under Fitz ranked 23rd in the league aganst an above average set of defenses.
I am not trying to imply that our offense does not need help, just that it is not as bad as you have made it out to be with the skewd #’s.
Please base your arguments in provable facts instead of pulling stuff out of your rear. -CanadianBillsFan- This is why talk is cheap because the supply always exceeds the demand.
but then when you feed your 18.3 number back into the list of other teams to get a league ranking of 26th dont you think the other 25 teams above us scored some defense and ST points? They did, I looked and the more accurate ranking would be my 23rd when you take the other teams non offense points off from their teams also.
23rd or 26th ranked O?
This is splitting hairs, both ranks stink against the league.
Kylesaurus Rex Williams Pro Bowl 2010
by The Buffalo Kid on Mar 17, 2011 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Of coarse it is spliting hairs
23rd is not much better then 26th, but it is relevent to the point of this post. It clearly puts the offense better then the defense. It also puts the direction that the offense is going compared to last year in a way better position then the defense campared to last year. I am not trying to brag about our 23rd ranked offense, just disagree that it is worse thn our defense.
Please base your arguments in provable facts instead of pulling stuff out of your rear. -CanadianBillsFan- This is why talk is cheap because the supply always exceeds the demand.
look at the whole...not just the parts
I’m glad this is now a solid and well articulated point in our continuing discussion. This post is very important in the frame of the discussion. To go a step further, maybe it would be good to step back and have some bigger perspective.
I’ve been warning about the danger of being complacent with Fitz for a long time, even while being in the small minority who backed him as the best QB for the 2010 Bills last off-season.
Both units need a game-changer, or at the very least, a leader that has both the emotional and physical tools to rally the team to win those close games.
It needs to be noted here that a player like that will ultimately lead to positive results on both sides of the ball.
That said, I can’t envision a better situation to go after a franchise QB than the Bills have next month.
Embrace the bias
Good Job
Great post Kaisertown, agree with all you said, rec’d.
A QB is like a Queen or King in chess, if you don't have one you lose! Get a QB Buffalo!
.
Rec'd- great post!!
We need a QB now to prepare for the future!!
"Being a Bills Fan is a Tough Job for Tough People…" – Luther6
It's about the available talent
And I’m not sold on Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton as QB of the future to be taken with a #3 pick. And how do we develop them? By throwing them behind our line the moment Fitz has a bad game? You just know that’s going to happen – the fans will certainly demand to see their star pick on the field immediately if any mediiocrity remains in Fitz’ game.
AJ Green might be BPA, but he would be a luxury pick at bit of a luxury at a position we have found a lot of developing talent (although I wouldn’t be against picking him). Other than that, there isn’t a lineman or a tight end worthy of #3. Nor should we take an RB or FB. As for Rudolph – I would probably say we should take him in a heartbeat if he’s still there at 34, but I don’t think that’s very likely.
And to add, Fitz is still a young QB by NFL standards, who has yet to go through a camp as a #1. Who’s to say he’s hit his ceiling already? If in fact his ceiling is even a bit higher than what we’ve seen, he can at the very least give us the luxury of letting us be choosy about who the real QB of the future is, while we build up the team around him. Give him the reins and make sure he knows he can keep it by leading us to victory. Picking a QB at #3 would effectively be throwing him under the bus. Pick a guy in the later rounds (like Kaep or Dalton) for the role of backup.
The most likely gamechanging players in this draft and the majority of the top 10 available are on the defensive side of the ball. If I’m Buddy Nix, that’s my focus.
by NoiseIsTheBestRevenge on Mar 15, 2011 9:14 PM EDT reply actions
Good thoughts, kaiser. As Brian said before I think the offense needs consistency while the defense needs to get better, period.
The Jets ran through the defense twice. That’s the eyeball of the situation and the metrics. Fitzpatrick and the Bills looked Aw-waitforit-ful in the last couple weeks of the season but there were games when they were great. The Bills can’t afford to ignore either side of the ball or any position this offseason but I like where you’re coming from.
You can't have CHANGE without CHAN.
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by MattRichWarren on Mar 16, 2011 11:55 AM EDT reply actions
First off, you need a vacation Kaiser. You seem to have a lot of angst in your writing:)
I can’t speak for the majority of fans you to want to get your message across too, but I would say the overwhelming good will toward Fitz is because this is the best stretch of QB play we’ve seen since Bledsoe’s 1 good year (half year really). When you look at it further, beyond ppg and realize that we played against outstanding defenses/teams in general, coupled with an almost non existent running game, it leads one to believe Fitz made the best of a very bad stiatuion.
Fitz made the season fun, exciting and brought our team back to having a national presence in our country. Having said that, I feel we do need to upgrade the offensive side of the ball, with Cam Newton, James Carpenter and Cameron Jordan.
Fitz Or Chan?
Not so sure Fitz could’a made season “fun to watch” without Chan’s input. Far to much credit given to QB and not coach IMHO. Still a long ways to go obviously:)
A QB is like a Queen or King in chess, if you don't have one you lose! Get a QB Buffalo!
.
sorry!
Above is response to DJO.
A QB is like a Queen or King in chess, if you don't have one you lose! Get a QB Buffalo!
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by buffalobacker on Mar 16, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey, don’t get me wrong bbacker. I don’t discount the importance that Chan had on the offense. But how can you tell that it was coaching and not the QB? Did Trent look great with Chan coaching him? And Trent had the entire offseason and pre season to understand what Chan wanted.
The player still has to make the plays on the field. And the 23 or so TD’s that Ryan put up in 13 games, with not much talent around him, is worthy of recieving credit IMO.
haha
No worries, you make a valid point. It’s a combination of both:)
A QB is like a Queen or King in chess, if you don't have one you lose! Get a QB Buffalo!
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by buffalobacker on Mar 17, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
well I say!
The defense sucks worse!
Things Bills’ Fans talk about…..
- gobills!
PodunkO - The great post ender!
great fanpost kaiser
and I give it a rec because its very well argued and articulated. That said, I agree with some of it and I disagree with some of it.
On the point of having to improve the offense and this being ignored I agree 100%. I have been one of the most outspoken voices for drafting on the offensive line and linebackers. To me, these are our two mos crucial needs. This team needs a better LT, a RT, and a RG in my opinion. I think our ridiculous turnover numbers have a lot to do with terrible blocking by the offensive line on running and passing plays and when I was watching games I saw an offense that was moving the chains IN SPITE of the offensive line. From my view on the couch, the offensive tackles and even the interior accounted for so many dead drives – Bell and the RTs in particular – from missed assignments or simply getting beaten. I do not believe the WRs or RBs were the cause of our offensive woes. You take about crazy pills, for me, the lack of community attention on the offensive line woes – and even a general consensus that our o-line is in good shape – are my version of that. So on this I agree with you. The defense is in need of a lot of work but I like letting Carrington and Troup get a shot on the d-line with Kyle and Dwan and upgrading the linebacking corp significantly. However, to me, just as important as upgrading the LBs is upgrading an offensive line that I blame for hurting our offense.
This segues nicely into where I disagree with you. I do not hold Ryan Fitzpatrick as accountable as you do for our offensive issues. I know what I saw on the field – two offensive tackles that were overmatched rather frequently and a QB who covered up these deficiencies as opposed to succumbing to them like his predecessor Trent Edwards and like most other QBs would in that situation. Fitz made plays and gains that should not have been there. He found receivers under pressure and while taking massive hits and he popped right back up and did it again. He played in a season against fearsome defenses of the AFC North and East while losing his 2nd best weapon to IR in Roscoe Parrish and with the running game getting stuffed quite often and forcing him into long conversions (this I blame on the offensive line as well).
The point is I do not know what kind of quarterback Fitz can be. But I do know he reminds me of Jeff Garcia when he was with the 49ers in that he is a gutsy, cold blooded leader who will give everything he has and not crumble despite getting pummeled behind Demetrius Bell and the revolving door at RT. Because I know this I do not think we need a QB right now. And its not because I have faith in Ryan to get better and its not because I think we are set at QB. Its because I think the Bills are building a contender here and I do not see any reason to jeopardize the whole dang project by taking Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert or Jake Locker because conventional wisdom says you need a franchise QB if the Bills don’t think any of them are one. I have reservations about all of them, including Ryan Mallet.
Those of us who are willing to roll with Fitz are willing to do so because he is gutsy and a leader and because I’d rather take a developmental QB in the 4th or 5th than take a developmental QB at 3 or at 34 when we are so bad we can get immediate starters at OLB/RT/RG/ILB/CB/SS if we want to while still going BPA. The draft will be there next year for a QB. There will always be QBs in the draft. The Bills got where we are because we have thrown away too many 1st rounders trying to address specific problems. Im willing to roll with Fitz because if there isnt a franchise QB to take right now, then there isnt a franchise QB to take right now – that wont change if you draft Cam Newton or if you draft Kaepernick regardless of what the Bills logic is telling them. That said if the Bills do believe there is one, then great grab him. Im all for it. But this isnt a situation in which we dont have an entrenched leader in place who can guide us through a season if one isnt there for us to take.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
I still haven't seen anything from Fitz that would tell me he is more than a 8-8 QB....
not good enough to be a perennial playoff team. Either way, the Bills have nothing behind him. What happens if Fitz gets hurt?
The draft will be there next year for a QB. There will always be QBs in the draft.
Isn’t that true of every position? The Bills didn’t think there were any QBs in last years draft either. Exactly what are they waiting for? This draft may not have a can’t miss QB prospect, but it is deep with very good developmental guys like Locker, Kaep, Dalton, Devlin, etc. IMO, the Bills MUST take a QB in round 1 or 2 this year because either way, they are going to need at least a year, maybe 2, to develop that QB.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
by Joe P. on Mar 16, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
so why do they have to take one in round 1 or 2
Devlin, Dalton will likely be there in round 3 and 4 and 5.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
Who would you rather have?
Locker/Kaep or Dalton/Devlin? For me, it is no contest. The #34 pick is the perfect spot to scoop up someone like Locker if he slips or Kaep before someone else grabs him.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
by Joe P. on Mar 16, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
as I said
if the Bills think there is a guy who will be a franchise QB at 3 or 34 then they should go for him. My point is that I dont buy the logic that the Bills HAVE to get a first or second round QB just because we might need a QB. The Bills should pick a guy only if they truly believe he can be franchise, no matter what round its in, as opposed to taking a guy because he is a top prospect this year.
I still can’t shake a horribly uneasy feeling that Blaine Gabbert is the bees knees right now because everyone just has to identify a QB who should go in the top 3 in every single draft just because thats what usually happens. So what if a QB has gone first almost every draft in the last 15 years, that doesn’t mean that Gabbert or Newton should.
Trust me, Im all over getting Locker at 34 if the Bills think hes franchise. I just dont want us to take one because thats what we are “supposed” to do.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
Well sometimes it is OK to do what your supposed to do
I have no issue passing on a QB at #3, but at some point it just looks like the Bills can’t identify a good QB. Hopefully the Bills will not be drafting this high again, so this is there best shot at getting the cream of the 1st or 2nd round QB crop.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
by Joe P. on Mar 16, 2011 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree about it being our best shot
Unfortunately, it may be our (perpetually) bad luck that we are getting our best shot at the 1st and 2nd round QB cream of the crop in a year in which there may not be any cream.
Many of the perceived cream of the crop QBs have gone the way of Tim Couch. To most outsiders the Bills looked absolutely looney passing on Jimmy Clausen – a pre-draft cream of the cropper – twice. Yet as of now, this looks like a prudent relaxing of the trigger finger.
In many ways, this is a huge test for Buddy Nix.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
Giving up on Clausen after one year of being on a bad team with a lame duck coach is unwise
I don’t know if he will be a good QB, but I do know that I wouldn’t judge him by what happened last year.
In many ways, this is a huge test for Buddy Nix.
Agreed….this could draft could make or break CHIX
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
by Joe P. on Mar 16, 2011 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
it certainly is
its my belief that this is 100% make or break for Nix. This draft should define this team under his direction.
I havent give up on Clausen, as I said, “as of now”, but still not off to a good start.
If they blow this draft they are most likely done – the Chix that is.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
if Fitz gets hurt
we can always play the rook we get in rounds 3-5. Or we can play whatever backup we sign in free agency.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
Maybe
Rather than ruin a potential franchise QB, I would rather let him develop. If we are going to wreck another QB, might as well be Brown. FA backup?? What FA backup??? Haven’t you heard, there is no free agency :-) Are you really willing to take the chance that one of the good FA QBs (who are they by the way?) are going to want to sign with the Bills?
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
To be honest, I think free agent QBs will find Buffalo an attractive destination. One could very well argue its a place with Gailey and Nix in which the best QB will get the job.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
Disagree......Fitz is the starter, so they would have to come in knowing they were the backup and
that the Bills will be looking to draft their QB of the future. Most good FA QBs will not find that an attractive situation.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
im not so sure
if Fitz goes down to injury, a backup who plays lights out will have a far greater chance to keep the job than backing up a Peyton Manning or Drew Brees or even Eli Manning or Mark Sanchez.
If Fitz’s hold on the job was so firm there wouldnt be all this draft a QB talk.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
But threre are plenty of places like Tenn and Az where the job is up for grabs
and if the guy played lights out, he won’t be on the block. Who are these “lights out” QBs again?
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
I didnt call them “lights out” guys, I said if they play “lights out”. It happens all the time in this league.
z
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
You went over the line with that "z" comment....
“Purple monkey dishwasher” to you :-)
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
hahahahahahahahaahaha
your right, that was below the belt.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
It don't happen all the time....it happens once in a blue moon
who was the last guy it happened to Brees? How long ago was that?
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
Mike Vick?
Also, Im not so sure this is totally relevant for whether or not we should take a QB at 3 or 34. Not having a good backup insurance in case of injury is not exactly a good reason to go out and spend a premium pick on a QB :)
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
and by Mike vick
I meant Donovan McNabb.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
McNabb played like crap....not sure you want to use him as an example
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
so?
he was an established guy who went down to injury and was replaced.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
Kurt Warner
is another recent example, twice to Trent Green and Matt Leinart (another example of a pre-draft “cream of the crop” perception guy.
Drew Bledsoe lost his job to Tom Brady
JP Losman was also a guy who basically lost his job
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
Your reaching now poz
Warner is a very good example, but an older example than Brees, I think. Trent Green…hahhahahaha….that is all. Leinart was never any good. If you think the next Tom Brady is on the Bills roster (never was a FA) then by all means let me know. And JP lost his job more times than Paris Hilton gave one……. and for basically the same reasons….they both sucked hard :-)
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
i dont understand?
Kaisertowns post was making the argument that Fitz is in fact a below average NFL starting QB and then you ridicule examples of QBs being replaced due to injury because you say they were below average?
Trent Green was a very very good QB in this league for a long time and showed quite a bit before he went down to get replaced by Warner. Trent Green had some magnificent passing season with the Kansas City Chiefs after he lost his job in St. Louis. You are laughing at a man who had a 4,500+ yard, 27 touchdown, 66% completion percentage season? Sandwiched between two other 4,000+ yarders with 24 and 17 TDs and both over 62% completion percentage.
Leinart was never any good NOW, in hindsight. At the time he lost his job he was supposed to be the future and was looking much better than Jimmy Clausen who you ask for patience with. Leinart was far from a done deal when he was replaced.
And why is it relevant that Tom Brady wasnt a free agent? He was a 6th round draft pick – those guys are lucky to survive long enough in the league to be free agents picked up by a second team.
JP also had similar hair to Paris Hilton :) – until he got all emo and depressed and grew a beard of course.
Im just not sure where your going here. Either Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good QB and therefore doesnt deserve to be grouped in with these guys and thus the Bills do not HAVE to draft a QB in the first few rounds, or he is similar to the guys I listed and thus can be replaced if he gets hurt and a guy plays well.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
I thought I was being very clear
Kaisertowns post was making the argument that Fitz is in fact a below average NFL starting QB
I have always said I thought Fitz was an 8-8 QB. Wouldn’t that make him exactly average? Is that what you want from a starting QB?
then you ridicule examples of QBs being replaced due to injury because you say they were below average?
You said we could get a FA QB that had the ability to play “lights out” I want to know who. You said it happened all the time…I said it was rare. I wanted examples. You gave me Vick…OK, but not your typical QB path to success. Warner…yes…Green…injury prone and didn’t last long, Lienart and Brady… we were talking FAs and Brady was never a FA….do you really want a FA like Lienart?
Either Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good QB and therefore doesnt deserve to be grouped in with these guys…
Fitz is good, but not good enough to not be look for his replacement. It is simple….if you know of a FA that is going to be the next Warner or Vick, then I would like to know who and why he wouldn’t sign with Tenn or Az. If that QB doesn’t exist, then YES…..we need to draft a QB in rounds 1 or 2.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
when did I ever say that this free agent would be our future? You asked what would happen if FItz got hurt. My point has always been – if there is no franchise guy in the first two rounds then we have no reason to draft one. This doesn’t change just because our backup situation is iffy in the event of an injury to Fitz. We dont need a Warner or a Vick, we need a guy who can fill in for a couple of games if need be. Those guys are out there – Thigpen, Pennington, Tarvaris Jackson, Billy Volek, Rex Grossman, Marc Bulger.
So yes, it is simple – we are looking for his replacement. But if his replacement is not found before pick 34 then you dont take one then just because you NEED to and are hoping that it will magically work out if you just take the best QB on your board in the first two rounds. You move on with Fitz and sign a free agent backup who can fill in if we need him to. If Fitz goes down for the year oh well, nothing we can do. But you dont expend a valuable commodity on Blaine Gabbert or Jake Locker when you aren’t convinced they are franchise guys just because you want to pretend you have taken care of the issue of Fitz’s replacement because they were selected in the early portions of the draft.
Im also not sure what you have against Trent Green but he played five full seasons as the starter for the Kansas City Chiefs before going down in his final sixth season and threw over 4,000 yards in 3 and over 3,000 yards in all 5 of them, had more TDs than INTs in all but one of them and started all 16 games in every single of the five seasons before he got hurt. Thats 80 straight starts without missing one. He also completed over 61% of his passes in all but one season. I know this is a tangent but Trent Green was a very good player for a good period of time he took them to winning records twice at 13-3 and 10-6.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
and just to add
as I said, this free agent backup isnt the only option. IF we dont find a QB we believe in in rounds 1 and 2 then I’d love to take a guy in rounds 3-5 – as you noted, this is a deep developmental class. If hes better than the free agent then hes the no.2. Im all for taking a QB at 3 or at 34 if they are franchise guys in the minds of Chix but if they are not I simply can’t get behind the philosophy that we MUST take a QB in the first two rounds.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
CHIX can't continue to pass on QBs season after season,
especially when the opportunity to get the QB they want is sitting right in front of them. All they have to do is identify who that QB is. If they don’t take a QB, I will seriously begin to question whether they can identify one at all. They missed on Trent (didn’t draft him, but named him starter), passed on all the QBs in last years draft, and now they can’t find a QB this year either? Not acceptable.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
by Joe P. on Mar 16, 2011 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
but what if there is no one there at 34? You arent sold on Newton. What if Gabbert is taken at number 1? Do you take Newton? Do you take Locker or Mallet? All could potentially be gone by 34. They should be certain a guy is worth it before they do it.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
good convo by the way Joe
Its been a while since Ive had a long discussion on these threads that starts getting so far to the margin a response begins to read like a rolled out scroll the space is so thinned.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
agreed.....It has been a fun conversation :-)
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
If everyone we have talked about is gone at #34, then
yes…CHIX shouldn’t reach for someone like Dalton at #34. The odds of that are very great, IMO.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
Where is your cut off
for QBs you wouldn’t before or at #34? Gabbert, Newton, Locker, Kaep, Mallet?
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
OK....include Green ....doesn't really matter to the Bills this season
It isn’t like I said it never happens….just that it isnt’ common. You are talking like I want to take a QB at #34 expecting that a backup is the best they will be ….I said worst case. And we do need a future at QB. That future QB is not going to play right away. He will need to develop for a year or two.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
hahaha I love how Green
is such an integral part of this discussion haha
Im all for letting a guy develop – I would gladly take a guy at 34 or before if Chix is sold. But they all have major question marks, I just cant fathom why we should feel pressured into taking one if we arent fully sold.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
there is always risk
you will never take a draft prospect without risk. I just feel that there are several QBs that should be available at #34 that are worth the risk. CHIX need to seize the moment.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
Sure, Vick counts but wasn't really the typical free agent QB that
you would find on the market. And the reason you take a QB at #34 is because you are trying to find a QB of the future, but can live with getting an excellent backup QB if worse comes to worse.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
oh I dont know
if a 2nd rounder at pick 34 allows you to be content with a backup.
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
content...mabe not, but given how important the position of QB is
and the number of QBs in this league that miss a game or two each year, having a good backup might be the difference between making the playoffs and not. And maybe if we are lucky, the Bills can “Rob Johnson” someone.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
must
must implies no choice, last time i looked the nfl wasn’t in charge of delegating players. there are always options young grasshopper.
apparently you didn't get the memo
I am now in charge of drafting for all 32 teams….and for most of the CFL, but that is another story. All teams without a potential elite QB must take one in rounds 1 or 2 or DeMarcus Smith will demand the last ten years of sireric’s internet history. If he doesn’t get it, he will decertify sireric’s membership in the Milly Cyrus superfan club and lock out his webcam privileges to Girls gone Wild.
And if some of you don’t understand what I am talking about, don’t worry….kind of a BR charter member’s inside joke :-)
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
not his membership with the Miley Cyrus fan club! YOU WOULDNT!!!
i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2
DeMarcus has shown me how to deal with management ;-)
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein
“Let’s roll.”
"Adversity is an opportunity for heroism." Marv Levy.
by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Mar 16, 2011 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Have no problem with...
taking offense as much as defense. in fact I encourage it but here lays the problem. In round 1 the only player i would consider is aj green. sorry but qb’s are not up to the standards. there are too many potential day 1 starters and 3-4 superstars of this league. yes many are 1 yr wonders but that’s what makes this fun. gabbert is the only qbwoth taking in the top 15 at this point of my draft and cam would belong somewhere shortely after that. My problem with qb in the second is I see alot of guys who look like great backup qb’s. number 34 is kinda high for a backup qb right? could be wrong but this blog is based on opinion and this is mine. I have also had rudolph TE in and out of my draft and I ‘ll tell you why. I don’t think it is what the bills will pick. I would pick him because I feel he will be a great player and ease up defensive rush when he goes out for a pass. I am worried about injuries with him though. Also looking where the bills are in the second there will be spillover of possible 1st round possibilities at 34 probably more possible defense starters than offense. So if the bills are going to trade a pick I would rather it be here for another 3rd(if that’s the going rate). I then could argue that it would be alt easier to take an offensive player especially if you like them like luke stocker, ben i, barksdale, watkins. I agree with your analysis, both sides of our game suck but honestly the offense was as exciting to watch as it has been in years even with stats being similar. I think it could be argued that it is easier to see the offense improving as many starters are already on that side of the ball. I would love to see 2 TE’s, RT and a possible Lt taken in this draft but I don’t think it will happen. We had the qb discussion earlier. I want one but i am willing to wait one year for a future starting Qb if I feel this draft doesn’t have one. Defensively we could use 1 IML, 1 OLB, 1-2 DE’s, CB and possibly a safety depending on who you talk to. Personally I like the idea of the front seven and here is why. An offensive line usually needs 3-4 yrs to gel. A defensive line 2-3 depending on the situation. I think our greatest defeat in the new england and jets games is our front 7. Lineman getting pushed at will and linebackers not flying to the ball. that is my argument even though I agree with yours. either way improvement is needed on both sides of the field.go bills
draft
rd 1 dareus, peterson, miller, fairley
rd2 m. wilson, phil taylor, christian ballard, r. moore
rd3 luke stocker, jason pinkston, mason foster
rd4 joesph barksdale, dj williams, kelvin sheppard
rd4 mark herzlich
fair?
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