Comparing Ryan Fitzpatrick To "Replacement-Level" Quarterbacks

by Brian Galliford on Mar 14, 2011 3:30 PM EDT in Buffalo Bills News

Brett Favre. Steve McNair. Kurt Warner. Drew Brees. These are just some of the quarterbacks that, within the past 10 years, were the incumbent starting quarterback when their respective teams spent a Top 10 pick on a so-called "franchise" quarterback. That, to us, makes them considered "replacement-level" at one point or another during their illustrious careers.

Between those four players - there are 10 more that fit the aforementioned description - we're talking about six league MVP awards, 23 Pro Bowl appearances, two Offensive Players of the Year, one Comeback Player of the Year, two Super Bowl MVPs and three championship rings. That's a lot of hardware for guys that, once upon a time, were unceremoniously replaced by their teams.

Here's the kicker: Ryan Fitzpatrick compares favorably to every single one of them when viewed through the lens of incumbent quarterbacks dealing with - or in Fitzpatrick's case, possibly dealing with - a Top 10 pick at his position the following season. It's pretty easy to argue that if the Buffalo Bills draft a quarterback with the No. 3 overall pick on April 28, Fitzpatrick's 2010 campaign will have been the best effort for an incumbent quarterback replaced by a rook in the last decade.

Consider the fact that of the 14 incumbent quarterbacks met with Top 10 picks, only two - Fitzpatrick and Favre - threw more than 20 touchdowns. Fitzpatrick's 23-to-15 TD-to-INT ratio rates, by a considerable margin, as the best (and most productive) among the group. He's one of five that threw for 3,000 yards or more.

What does this mean? Absolutely nothing in terms of how Fitzpatrick is evaluated by the Bills, nor as a predictor for future success. It simply means that from a statistical standpoint, the Bills have the most difficult justification for taking a quarterback in the Top 10 than any team in the last decade with that "franchise" need.

Here are Fitzpatrick's numbers compared with the 14 "replacement-level" quarterbacks in the last 10 years. Note: 15 quarterbacks have been Top 10 picks in that time frame, but the expansion Houston Texans did not have an incumbent when they drafted David Carr in 2002.

Name	YR	Team	GP	Comp%	Yards	TD	INT	Draft Pick
Ryan Fitzpatrick	2010	Bills	13	57.8	3,000	23	15
Marc Bulger	2009	Rams	9	56.7	1,469	5	6	Sam Bradford
Dan Orlovsky	2008	Lions	10	56.1	1,616	8	8	Matthew Stafford
Brett Favre	2008	Jets	16	65.7	3,472	22	22	Mark Sanchez
Joey Harrington	2007	Falcons	12	61.8	2,215	7	8	Matt Ryan
Andrew Walter	2006	Raiders	12	53.3	1,677	3	13	JaMarcus Russell
Steve McNair	2005	Titans	14	61.3	3,161	16	11	Vince Young
Kurt Warner	2005	Cardinals	10	64.5	2,713	11	9	Matt Leinart
Tim Rattay	2004	49ers	9	60.9	2,169	10	10	Alex Smith
Kerry Collins	2003	Giants	13	56.8	3,110	13	16	Eli Manning
Drew Brees	2003	Chargers	11	57.6	2,108	11	15	Philip Rivers
Jon Kitna	2002	Bengals	14	62.2	3,178	16	16	Carson Palmer
Charlie Batch	2001	Lions	10	58.1	2,392	12	12	Joey Harrington
Chris Chandler	2000	Falcons	14	58.0	2,236	10	12	Michael Vick

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Comments

Strange

Fitzy grew on me now. I just love they way he plays the game. He’s a tough dude who can take a hit, pretty good runner and is not afraid to throw it in traffic. But he always seems to make the bonehead throw in the clutch. Once that fixed he will be ok. Fitzpatrick 14 jersey anyone?

Ps. Any sneek peek at the new unis yet?

by SpiderWeb Sleeves on Mar 14, 2011 3:42 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

If we don’t draft a QB this year I am sorely tempted to get one.

Give this a listen: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xjdkc14-zwQ

by NordicBillsfan on Mar 14, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

You only have 13 qb's up there. may want to fix that.

Dont know if one’s missing or if fitz would be the 14th.

by NJames on Mar 14, 2011 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeap

The throwback one, and wouldn’t mind buying the new one with 14 on it

by the billsfan on Mar 15, 2011 1:19 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I’ve kind of thought of Fitzy as our Kitna.

by oompaloompa on Mar 14, 2011 3:45 PM EDT reply actions

I think the numbers support that

Fitzpatrick had more touchdowns, but Kitna was more accurate.

Starting the official Buffalo "Draft Owen Marecic in 2011" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Mar 14, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions

It's hard to see some of those guys as "replacement" level

When I think of replacement level I think of Chris Chandler, Joey Harrington, and Andrew Walter………

Definitely not Steve McNair, Drew Brees and Kurt Warner.

Ah the beauty of hindsight.

The score dictated they pass

by norcaliangelsfan on Mar 14, 2011 3:51 PM EDT reply actions

I'm a fool

I was a Trent Edwards supporter. Didn’t really think Fitzy had what it took to be a starting QB in the NFL. I thought of him a solid backup. While I am not convinced 100% that he is our guy for the long term, I am coming around. The “Bonehead” throw as SpiderWeb Sleeves states is one of those reasons. In accurate at times for me speaks volumes to me. Hoping a training camp as the starter help Fitz put it all together. I’m rooting for him and feel he gives us a better opportunity than Gabbert/Newton. One thing I did learn this past season….I respect the hell out of the man as a football player.

"Sit down and watch my Buffalo Bills destroy your Kingdome" - Abayarde

by nickdaniels on Mar 14, 2011 3:57 PM EDT reply actions

Any chance on an edit button? Just re-read my post and hate seeing the grammar issues.

"Sit down and watch my Buffalo Bills destroy your Kingdome" - Abayarde

by nickdaniels on Mar 14, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

No chance.

Just have to hit the preview button and stare until you find all the issues then post. =)

"We knew it could get out of hand..." Dick Jauron following 56-10 loss to New England.

by JD-KT on Mar 14, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

me too...

I was also on the Trent bandwagon when the season opened up. now i just wonder why i ever thought that

by NotReadytoRock on Mar 14, 2011 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions

First, I like Fitz and would be fine if he’s starter next season (if there is a season).

Second, and most important, just look at all the top 10 QBs who have been busts! Pretty weak success rate for such a high draft pick. I’d rather lay the foundation for the team with a safer bet.

by Buffalo Tom on Mar 14, 2011 3:58 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

No draft pick is ever a safe bet.

In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!

by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 14, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

just like the argument

that picking a qb early in the first round increases the chances of success, increases the chances of a safer bet

by statcruncher on Mar 14, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Only 5 out of 14 were busts.

Thats not really terrible imo.

"We knew it could get out of hand..." Dick Jauron following 56-10 loss to New England.

by JD-KT on Mar 14, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions

True

but there’s less pressure if you’re not the “team captain”

"This is what happens Larry!, This is what happens! "-Walter Sobchak" "Did we give up when the germans bombed pearl harbor!!??"-John Belushi

by BigEasyBillsKrewe on Mar 14, 2011 4:29 PM EDT reply actions

Unless you’re the Captain of the Checkdown.

In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!

by TheAfghanTwilight on Mar 14, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

With Fitz

we have a better starting quarterback than 2 of our 3 AFC East rivals. Does he have the upside? Hard to tell, but for a guy who’s never had a starting role nailed down at the beginning of a season, he’s played alright, and we haven’t yet seen how a full camp of reps with the #1 team can benefit his production on the field during the season. I’d say starting QB is one of the least of our worries right now. However, we do need to upgrade the backup role.

by NoiseIsTheBestRevenge on Mar 14, 2011 4:34 PM EDT reply actions

No real surprise in those numbers

Outside of the TD passes, his numbers were poor. When you look at guys like this, it seems evident that Fitz is a stop gap. Hopefully, we’ll get that rookie that he holds down the position for….

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Mar 14, 2011 4:46 PM EDT reply actions

Haha – you say “outside of the TD passes” like that’s not, by a gigantic margin, the most important stat up there.

Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford

by Brian Galliford on Mar 14, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

For example Favre had like a 65% comp rate this year and still played mediocre, he didn’t through TDs.

eh?

by Jcksn22 on Mar 14, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Well then I phrased it wrong

Outside of the TD passes (OMG most important stat in football!!!), his numbers were poor. What were his attempt numbers like? TD%?

The offense, including points scored, was still poor and inconsistent with him at the helm. And outside of those TD passes (WHOA!), his numbers were indeed right in line with those guys listed.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Mar 14, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

Man, you know I’m with you on this. It just read like you were saying 23 TDs was an average stat, and should somehow pale when considering everything else. Scores are scores.

Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford

by Brian Galliford on Mar 14, 2011 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh I know

was just playing along

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Mar 14, 2011 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Was Fitz the problem?

Please don’t read this as unqualified support for Fitzpatrick, but before we say his stats were poor, we have to keep in mind the Bills had no LT, a revolving door at RT and an ever changing roster in the interior of the line. On top of it, our best WR was a rookie. With even guys who were average (the 16th +/- two) at LT, RT and WR, I think it is fair to say his stats would have been better. Put another way, Manning, Brees, Brady or even, dear lord, Kelly in his prime, would have had poor stats for that team.

Let’s give Fitz another year. If we keep the #3, then perhaps we use our 3rd to grab a QB or if we trade down (which I hope, but don’t think will happen), then a 2nd on a replacement who can take over 2-3 yrs down the road.

by CGoetz on Mar 14, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree whole heartedly.

Also the Bills had the worst run defense in the league which means the opposing teams had the ball for longer stretches. If the defense improves, Fitz’s touchdowns should also improve simply by getting more chances to try.

by rockinon on Mar 14, 2011 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Stevie Johnson wasn't a rookie.

He was a 3rd year player who just finally got a real chance to start.

but other than that i pretty much agree with you. you also have to consider that in most games the time of posession was terrible because of our terrible run D and teams knew we had to throw most of the time. If you calculate out what he “would” have had, had he played the 3 games he missed this season, Fitz would have had nearly 4000 yards and 30 td’s

That being said i’d still take a peyton manning type franchise QB if one were available…….obviously

by NJames on Mar 14, 2011 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Peyton or Bust!

Actually “or bust!” is a really bad way to convey the idea. Point is, I agree: unless they see Gabbert as potentially an elite level QB, then they have to go elsewhere.

I don’t claim to know half as much as the guys here who really focus on prospects and mocks, but my thought is Dareus. The line needs some reinforcement and he looks to be it. However, if OBD sees Peterson as something truly special, then they have to grab him.

Best option, seems to me, is recognize that the Bills have a lot of holes to fill and that this is a draft deep in DE, where we really need help, and try to trade down to grab an extra pick. Use the lower 1st to grab a DE and then one of the two 2nds to grab one of the QBs.

by CGoetz on Mar 14, 2011 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions

That's a lot of what if's and hypotheticals

What counts is what we saw on the field last year. This wasn’t some offense totally devoid of talent either.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Mar 14, 2011 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I dunno his INT's are on the high side...........

maybe that should be the most important stat. :-)

The score dictated they pass

by norcaliangelsfan on Mar 14, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Only if its = or > than the TD numbers.

by Wien on Mar 14, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

:-)

just messing with him……….

The score dictated they pass

by norcaliangelsfan on Mar 14, 2011 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions

With the exception of a few these are bad or aging Quarterbacks

most of these were to replace someone who was subpar or a QB who was getting long in the tooth i mean really why are we putting favre, McNair Etc on this they werent being replaced as much as succeeded.

by SPCtacular1 on Mar 14, 2011 6:12 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, the only QB on this list who was really in the same situation that Fitz is in now was Brees. He turned out ok but I don’t believe that many people thought at the time Brees was drafted he would become the elite quarterback he is now. Joe Tiller ran what is now a classic college spread offense at Purdue and Brees wasn’t really supposed to adapt to the pro game as well as he did.

Sure sounds like some other quarterback in Reno that’s being talked about a lot now.

"I could have conquered Europe, all of it, but I had women in my life." - King Henry II of England

by Calvert on Mar 14, 2011 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Cautiously Optimistic

I can’t wait to see what Fitz can do with improved, slightly more experienced talent around him against teams that aren’t all playoff contenders. Not to make excuses but did anyone else notice that throughout the playoffs, we watched teams the Bills played (and often almost beat) in the regular season? Put a Marcel Dareus on the DL, grab one of the many solid ILBs, and one or two offensive linemen and, with a little luck, the 2011 Bills could make a run. This is the most optimistic I’ve been in many years. Of course, I’m a hit-rock-bottom-first kind of a guy…

by Luther6 on Mar 14, 2011 11:03 PM EDT reply actions

Fitz's stats are not the issue here.

The issue is the fact that he made his teamates believe they were better than they were. It took him longer than he expected and as he kept preaching that he needed to continue to find a way to win some games and then things would turn around. He has alot of growing to do, but the issue is he brought this team along last year and they believe in him. Many fans believe in him and will pull for him to suceed in 2011. Then there are the ones that are stuck in the mud and have already labeled him as mediocre, average at best and draft a guy as soon as you can. That is all fine and dandy, until that happens I feel more optimistic going into next season than anytime Trent Edwards was on the team and J.P. for that matter as well.

YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde

by VanScottM on Mar 15, 2011 12:19 AM EDT reply actions

all I know is

I trust Ryan Fitzpatrick.

i’m sure i’m going to regret this conversation… but what the hell - J2

by poz on Mar 15, 2011 2:32 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Great idea for a post

Given that I am not sold on Gabbert and Newton is such a high risk, I think this just helps prove that we do not need to reach and that we can probably wait another year to pull the trigger.

3000y for 13 starts is quite admirable BTW.

I took a peak at Rich Gannon’s stats and he sucked big time before he went to Oakland, very pedestrian numbers – career mediocre backup QB and then at the ripe old age of 34 he started to come alive, in the right system.

I think Fitzy might be a younger version of Gannon. I’m not saying he is, just that he might be. So if there’s a remote chance that he is, why not rebuild our team with BPAs instead of reaching? Give Fitz one more year in the system and if he improves on last year maybe we can really wait for the right guy instead of reaching for need. If he regresses from last year, then we can address the position in next years draft.

Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience

by keysh67 on Mar 15, 2011 6:29 AM EDT reply actions

But

3000y for 13 starts is quite admirable BTW.

some think,

Outside of the TD passes (OMG most important stat in football!!!), his numbers were poor. What were his attempt numbers like? TD%?

seems evident that Fitz is a stop gap.

YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde

by VanScottM on Mar 15, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Great

He threw for 3000 yards. That’s a nice accomplishment. He still didn’t lead this team to a great deal of points or victories. He turned it over a ton. How many of those yards came in moments when the game was out of hand because we were in a number of games like that? I don’t know, do you?

I want Fitz to be the guy to lead us to the promised land just like everybody else. I’m not buying his 3000 yards and 23 TD"s as a reason why that will ever happen. His inconsistency and horrible other numbers are HUGE red flags.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Mar 15, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

How many of those yards came in moments when the game was out of hand because we were in a number of games like that? I don’t know, do you?

I can’t imagine it’s a ton. The only games that fit that description in which Fitz played were NYJ1, JAX, MIN and NE2. He threw for a combined 757 yards in those four games.

Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford

by Brian Galliford on Mar 15, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

You do realize that I only suggested to wait another year (maybe). Locker or Kaep at #34 would be acceptable (I think) but if we go through the draft without drafting a QB I won’t be that upset because I’m somewhat curious to see how Fitzy’s second year in the Gailey system will look like. I certainly don’t think that he’s the final solution but he might have a few years in him, in which case we have a bit of time to go after the right replacement and not have to reach for him or take a huge chance on a high risk.

Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience

by keysh67 on Mar 15, 2011 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions