FanPost

More On A Possible Minnesota Trade

When you saw the bit about Minnesota moving up in round one on PFT you had to know that this would be coming. In the Lose Your Own Adventure mock I had a trade with Minnesota as one of the six possible paths. In that path the Bills wound up with DE JJ Watt, ILB Martez Wilson plus extra picks in the first and second round of the 2012 draft. 37 people chose the Minny trade (119 people lost their adventure with some other trade/no-trade scenario), 29 of whom were happy with how it turned out....a shockingly high percentage for a Lose Your Own Adventure mock.

Anyway, in a story that Brian posted on Sunday, he passed along a bit of information from Adam Schefter - the Bills (someone at OBD at any rate, or maybe quite a few people...could just be the janitor) like QB Jake Locker. Brian noted that Nix reportedly likes Newton but speculated that Gailey may like another QB, be it Gabbert or Locker or someone else. Here are some things we think we know:

  • According to Schefter, Locker won't be the pick at #3.
  • Nix has said that he doesn't like to trade down.
  • Carolina used a high pick on Jimmy Clausen in 2010 but may go QB at #1.
  • John Elway thinks Denver needs a big, mobile, strong armed QB who may or may not be on the roster. Tim Tebow was a first round pick in 2010.
  • Nix values impact players in the first round, sometimes to detriment of team needs. (See: Spiller, CJ)
  • Gailey needs a franchise QB in the near future to ensure he stays employed more than 3-4 seasons

So, let's take a look at how the first 11 picks shake out if Buffalo makes a deal with Minnesota and who may then be available at #12.

Cam Newton looks to be the first pick because he appears to bring a lot of assets to the table. (It doesn't hurt that Vince Young - a QB able to make plays with his legs - had a good first season before becoming a head case.) Carolina isn't going to care about Newton's weird dad. Ron Rivera will care about Newton's ability to put points on the board.

1. Carolina Panthers: QB Cam Newton

John Elway may be babbling about the possibility of taking a quarterback but the team just used a first round pick on Tebow in 2010. Tebow is smart, a leader and knows how to win. He's certainly due an opportunity to beat out Kyle Orton for the starting job. Besides, the Broncos can use some help on the defensive line and Dareus just seems to be a rare prospect.

2. Denver Broncos: DT Marcell Dareus

Buffalo needs a franchise QB. Curiously, Gabbert hasn't garnered the sorts of praise that Newton has. Also, Schefter heard about Buffalo liking Locker but didn't hear anything about the Bills liking Gabbert. It's not unreasonable to assume that Buffalo may not view Gabbert as the QB of the future. I had speculated in the Lose Your Own Adventure mock that the Bills would take a DE in the first round (Bowers, Quinn, Watt) to help both the pass rush and horrendous run defense. Bowers and Quinn would fit the description of impact players.

Let's assume that Buffalo doesn't have Bowers or Quinn rated that much higher than Watt, Jordan or even guys like Green, Miller or Peterson. Minnesota calls and asks for #3 (2200) for #12 and Minny's 2012 1st round pick (about 2400). Done deal, as CHIX knows that either Locker and/or a DE Buffalo likes and/or an impact skill player will be on the board.

3. Minnesota Vikings (from Buffalo Bills): QB Blaine Gabbert

4. Cincinnati Bengals: DE Da'Quan Bowers

5. Arizona Cardinals: LB Von Miller

I just don't see Dallas standing pat and letting Peterson slide past 6. #9 and #40 get shipped to Cleveland for #6.

6. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland): CB Patrick Peterson

7. San Francisco 49ers: DT Nick Fairley

The Chargers have plenty of juice to move up the board. With defensive end a need the Chargers package #18, #50 and #89 for #8 and #108.

8. San Diego Chargers (from Tennessee Titans): DE Robert Quinn

9. Cleveland Browns: WR AJ Green

10. Washington Redskins: WR Julio Jones

11. Houston Texans: CB Prince Amukamara

The Bills have seen nine of the non-QB Baker's Dozen taken off the board before having another chance to make a selection. DE JJ Watt and DE Cameron Jordan are all that is left of those 13 total prospects. Buffalo goes with the defensive end CHIX likes best. (Yes, it could be Jordan over Watt - or even Cameron Heyward for that matter - but I'm basing much of this on Mayock's top 32 and his top 5 by position.) QB Jake Locker, not one of the Baker's Dozen, is also on the board.

If Buffalo takes Locker someone will take Watt (or Jordan) off the board before the end of the first round. Basically, I have Locker, Watt or Jordan going 12th, Watt or Jordan going 13th and Locker or Jordan going 18th. In the poll you'll see a couple of different options each with either a QB (Locker most likely) or DE (Watt or Jordan) as the player taken 12th overall by Buffalo.

12. Buffalo Bills (from Minnesota Vikings): QB Jake Locker or DE JJ Watt/Cameron Jordan

13. Detroit Lions: DE JJ Watt (if not taken by Buffalo) or Cameron Jordan

14. St Louis Rams: DT DT Muhammed Wilkerson

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: C/G Mike Pouncey

17. New England Patriots: OT Tyron Smith

18. Tennessee Titans (from San Diego Chargers): QB Jake Locker or DE Cameron Jordan

19. New York Giants: OT Anthony Costanzo

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE Aldon Smith

21. Kansas City Chiefs: DT Phil Taylor

22. Indianapolis Colts: OT Gabe Carimi

23. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Jimmy Smith

24. New Orleans Saints: OT Nate Solder

25. Seattle Seahawks: DE Ryan Kerrigan

26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Aaron Williams

27. Atlanta Falcons: DE Adrian Clayborn

28. Washington Redskins (from New England Patriots): QB Ryan Mallett

29. Chicago Bears: LB Akeem Ayers

30. New York Jets: G Clint Boling

31. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Derek Sherrod

32. Green Bay Packers: OT Ben Ijalana

33. Atlanta Falcons (from New England Patriots): TE Kyle Rudolph

Buffalo is on the clock at #34. If he was the pick, DE JJ Watt should add some pass rush and help out against the run to a degree. If the Bills went QB then hopefully the long quest for Kelly's successor could be at an end. Of Mike Mayock's top 32 these are still on the board:

  • DE Adrian Clayborn
  • DT Corey Liuget
  • DE Cameron Heyward

Of Mayock's top 5 by position, these guys are still on the board:

  • QBs: Dalton
  • TEs: Hendricks, Stocker, Williams, Green
  • G/C: Watkins, Moffitt, Hudson
  • WR: Young, Baldwin, Smith
  • RB: Thomas, Leshoure, Williams, Rogers
  • DT: Paea
  • ILB: Wilson, McCarthy, Sturdivant, Matthews, Sheppard
  • OLB: Houston, B Carter, C Carter
  • CB: Harris
  • S: Moore, Black, Gilchrist, Carter, Williams

If the Bills took Locker at 12, I can see a defensive lineman having real appeal at 34. If the idea is to get some pressure that person probably plays defensive end as opposed to tackle. Clayborn has had some character issues so I'm thinking the Bills would go with Heyward. On the other hand, if the Bills had taken Watt or Jordan at 12, the QB pickings are indeed slim. With Gailey's minimalistic approach to TE and depth in the interior line positions, WR and RB we can pretty much rule out offense at 34. With a DE taken in the first and no need for DT it's looking like the back seven will be the pick. Martez Wilson makes sense to me but wouldn't have as much of a chance to make an impact as, say, Justin Houston. Best of all, Houston may send Kelsay to the bench.

34. Buffalo Bills: DE Cameron Heyward or OLB Justin Houston

While Nix has stated that he doesn't like to trade down he also said that he tried to get back into the first round in 2010 to get a player other than Tebow - possibly DT Dan Williams. So, it's worth taking a look a Buffalo trading back with Minnesota and then back into the first round to get a player that Buffalo may have higher on the board than DE Heyward or OLB Houston. The Minnesota 2012 first round pick figures to be worth at least 1050 as it should be in the top half of the draft, particularly if Gabbert is playing sooner rather than later.

3. Minnesota Vikings (from Buffalo Bills): QB Blaine Gabbert

4. Cincinnati Bengals: DE Da'Quan Bowers

5. Arizona Cardinals: LB Von Miller

I just don't see Dallas standing pat and letting Peterson slide past 6. #9 and #40 get shipped to Cleveland for #6.

6. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland): CB Patrick Peterson

7. San Francisco 49ers: DT Nick Fairley

The Chargers have plenty of juice to move up the board. With defensive end a need the Chargers package #18, #50 and #89 for #8 and #108.

8. San Diego Chargers (from Tennessee Titans): DE Robert Quinn

9. Cleveland Browns: WR AJ Green

CHIX is working the phones, shopping that Minnesota first round pick. Tennessee got a better deal than Buffalo was willing to offer (#34 and Minny's 2012 1st round pick for #8) in terms of immediate picks, costing Buffalo Robert Quinn. The Browns were willing to do the deal on the terms offered to Tennessee but CHIX had dropped it to #68 and Minny's 2012 1st round pick as Quinn was gone and Jones would be available at 10 if Buffalo really wanted a WR. Dan Snyder turns down the offer, wanting to get Buffalo's 4th along with 3rd and Minny's 2012 first round pick. Buffalo, which had offered #34 and Minny's first rounder earlier, thinks about it for a minute and then makes the deal. WR Jones is on the board along with QB Locker and DEs Watt and Jordan. Jones won't last any longer while Watt and Jordan figure to be on the board at 12. Locker could be taken at 11 if someone trades up with Houston. Buffalo goes offense at 10 with either Locker or Jones. The Bills then go defense at 12 taking Watt or Jordan. No matter what Buffalo does, the four players all figure to go in the first round. It gets a bit dicey trying to figure out who could go where with Buffalo having 2 picks with 4 different possible players.

10. Buffalo Bills (from Washington Redskins): QB Jake Locker or WR Julio Jones

11. Houston Texans: CB Prince Amukamara

Buffalo continues to work the phones looking to get back into the first round. It's a pretty good bet that if Buffalo goes with Locker

12. Buffalo Bills (from Minnesota Vikings): DE JJ Watt or DE Cameron Jordan

13. Detroit Lions: DE JJ Watt (if not taken by Buffalo) or Cameron Jordan

14. St Louis Rams: DT DT Muhammed Wilkerson

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: C/G Mike Pouncey

17. New England Patriots: OT Tyron Smith

18. Tennessee Titans (from San Diego Chargers): QB Jake Locker or WR Julio Jones

19. New York Giants: OT Anthony Costanzo

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE Aldon Smith

21. Kansas City Chiefs: DT Phil Taylor

22. Indianapolis Colts: OT Gabe Carimi

23. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Jimmy Smith

24. New Orleans Saints: OT Nate Solder

25. Seattle Seahawks: DE Ryan Kerrigan

26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Aaron Williams

27. Atlanta Falcons: DE Adrian Clayborn

28. Washington Redskins (from New England Patriots): QB Ryan Mallett

29. Chicago Bears: LB Akeem Ayers

30. New York Jets: G Clint Boling

31. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Derek Sherrod

32. Green Bay Packers: OT Ben Ijalana

33. Atlanta Falcons (from New England Patriots): TE Kyle Rudolph

With Buffalo having one offensive player (Locker or Jones) and a defensive end (Watt or Jordan), the Bills have just pick 34 before the end of the 4th round. As was noted earlier, the primary focus at this point is likely defense. The choice now comes down to ILB or OLB. With a defensive playmaker (hopefully) in the fold, the Bills have the option of going with the higher rated of the two.

34. Buffalo Bills: OLB Justin Houston or ILB Martez Wilson

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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