With the apparent craziness of the Newton-To-The-Bills hopefully subsiding, it's time to look at whether or not people believe that CHIX could be induced to move from #3 to #5. (Besides, I still think Newton will go #1 to Carolina.) Brian has speculated that the Bills aren't necessarily sold on Newton in that CHIX may not be in total accord regarding the Auburn QB. Gailey had some nice things to say about Gabbert and Newton but they struck me as perfunctory rather than indicators of genuine interest. Until something credible pops up, I'm sticking with the assumption that the Bills aren't going to take either Newton or Gabbert.
PFT had a story yesterday that highlighted Arizona's interest in Blaine Gabbert:
Darren Urban of the Cardinals’ website notes that Bill and Michael Bidwill were in attendance Tuesday and Wednesday as the Cardinals took Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert out to dinner, then ran him through a private workout.
Coach Ken Whisenhunt, G.M. Rod Graves, and Director of Player Personnel Steve Keim were also in attendance. Previous scuttlebutt around the Cardinals centered around Arizona preferring Gabbert to Cam Newton.
To my mind, this story reflects genuine interest in a player. The Cardinals' website is the original source and all but the 'scuttlebutt' sentence revolves around hard facts. The team owners took the time to go meet a guy who could be the face of their QB needy franchise. Add to that the supposition that Gabbert makes a good deal of sense for a franchise with a forgiving target (Larry Fitzgerald) and that plays in a weak division....which should allow a guy like Gabbert to start from day 1 and enjoy at least a taste of success.
Since I'm avoiding the curriculum I'm supposed to be writing, let us look at some of the variables, particularly as they relate to the picks ahead of Buffalo. Carolina's options are basically to take a QB or take a defender. (I don't buy AJ Green going #1 overall for a second.) I don't see the Broncos taking a QB. I also don't see teams hopping up to #2 when it would be cheaper (by at least a 3rd round pick) to trade with Buffalo at #3. And for most teams trading up that far would cripple their draft.
Scenario 1 (I think this is most likely)
1. Carolina: Newton (Gabbert)
2. Denver: Dareus (Miller, Fairley, Bowers or Peterson)
1. Carolina: Dareus
2. Denver: Fairley (Bowers, Miller or Peterson)
So there Buffalo is at #3. Dareus is off the board and either a QB or another defender is gone as well. If Carolina goes QB it's hard to imagine that QB not being Newton. Whether Carolina goes QB or not, for this post the assumption is that Gabbert remains on the board at #3. CHIX gets a call from Arizona's war room - anxious to keep Gabbert from being plucked off the board by Cincinnati - with an offer of #5 and #38 for #3. Either the trade goes down or Buffalo makes the pick:
3. Buffalo: choice of all but one of Miller, Peterson, Bowers, Fairly plus Green, Quinn, Jones, Watt, Jordan
3. Arizona: Gabbert
4. Cincinatti: choice of all but one of Miller, Peterson, Bowers, Fairly plus Green, Quinn, Jones, Watt, Jordan
5. Buffalo: choice of all but two of Miller, Peterson, Bowers, Fairley, Green, Quinn, Jones, Watt, Jordan
My guess is that Miller will be Cincy's choice, possibly Bowers if he makes it to #4 and that he's medically cleared. CHIX would then choose between Bowers/Miller, Peterson, Fairley, Green, Quinn, Jones, Watt, Jordan. If the Bills aren't going QB, there would have to be an enormous gap between the grades for the defensive players ratings for Buffalo not to do the deal with Arizona. The Bills would be able to choose a player who is both special and likely to have an immediate impact....and all but 1 of the players Buffalo considered at #3 (again, assuming Gabbert was not a consideration) would be on the board at #5. And Buffalo would have a pair of 2nd round selections.