I’ve written (cough) a few (cough) fanposts about Buffalo’s possible trade down options. My primary hope is that Buffalo gets maximum value out of the #3 pick. I desperately want Buffalo to either use the pick on a guy who won’t be available later in the first round or trade out of #3 and add a pick or two while still getting the guy CHIX wants. For example, I don’t want to see Buffalo choose Cameron Jordan or JJ Watt at #3 when both of them will be on the board until some point after the top 10. If Jordan or Watt is the target I’d rather see Buffalo trade down – even if only a few spots – and then select him.
Some have stated as fact that Nix isn’t one for trading down. The quick Spiller pick supports this contention. CHIX had locked in on Spiller and took him without waiting for offers to come in. Still, Nix said that he’s open to the idea of trading down and we only have one draft to go on as far as his tendencies go. I choose to take him at his word. I also realize that CHIX may again lock in on a guy at #3, turning down any trade offers that do come in.
Last year the Bills, according to Nix, tried to trade back into the first round. CHIX was after either QB Tim Tebow or DT Dan Williams. In either case the trade would have required a 2nd and 3rd round pick at a minimum. Could the same thing happen again this year?
If Buffalo stands pat at #3 there are a limited number of reasonable targets. Bear in mind that had Buffalo not chose Spiller he would have been selected in the next pick or two. The point is that Buffalo didn’t reach for Spiller, regardless of whether Spiller represented an actual need. It is reasonable to assume Buffalo would take one of these players at #3:
- QB: Newton or Gabbert
- DT: Dareus or Fairley
- DE: Bowers or Quinn
- OLB: Miller
- CB: Peterson
- WR: Green
The question then becomes whether CHIX will again try to get back into the first round. Buffalo’s 2nd and 3rd round picks total up to 810, about the equivalent of the 21st pick in the draft. However, there is a premium to be paid when it comes to getting a team to drop out of the first round. A team like Philadelphia, with a history of abandoning the first round, or Indianapolis, who would try to turn pick #34 into someone’s 2012 first rounder in a quest to pick Manning’s successor in that draft, might do the deal even without the premium. Somewhere in the late 20s does seem more probable in terms of actually getting the deal done. The question then becomes what prospect would tempt Buffalo to trade back into the first. Some players slide on draft day and it’s at least possible that Jordan or Watt could still be on the board. Second tier OTs, DBs, QBs and OLBs would be available.
A lot depends on who is the pick at #3. I'm guessing Dareus and Newton won't be on the board, Fairly and Quinn aren't #3 values, and Green is a flat out luxury in the Spiller mode. That leaves Gabbert (who the radio interview guy Brian talked to seemed to think Buffalo liked), Bowers (possible health issue), Miller and Peterson. Keep the #3 scenarios in mind while thinking about who CHIX might target later in the first round.