John McClain (no, not the guy dropping Germans out of high rise windows) working the Houston beat writes that:
I don't know what they have to offer, but I hear the Redskins are trying like crazy to trade up to get one of the quarterbacks, Blaine Gabbert, I imagine. Some mocks have them taking quarterback Jake Locker if they stay at 10. What a reach that would be, but Mike Shanahan loves mobile quarterbacks who can throw on the run.
Not taking compensatory picks in the draft into account, the Redskins have picks 10 (1300), 41 (490), 141 (35.5), 152 (30.6),172 (22.6), and 202 (10.6). Pick 3 (2200) is worth more than all of those picks combined. There are some things to consider before looking at a possible trade with Washington.
- Buddy Nix said he'd entertain offers to trade down but indicated he wanted to stay in the top 10
- Mike Shanahan rode John Elway to a pair of Super Bowl wins and rebuilt Denver around Jay Cutler. In short, Shanahan is used to having mobile QBs.
- With just two weeks to go until the draft it is unlikely that players can be part of draft deals, not that Washington is stocked with talent anyway.
- Brian doesn't seem to think that the Bills will take a QB at 3 unless Gailey and Nix are of one mind....which they may well not be.
- If Washington wants Gabbert or Newton the goal has to trade up to 1 (3000), 2 (2600), or 3 (2200) in order to get ahead of Cincy and Arizona.
- Dan Snyder, as evidenced by Washington's lack of 3rd and 4th rounders this year, is more than willing to trade away tomorrow for a shot at what he wants today.
It's a good bet that both Newton and Gabbert will go in the top 9 even if Washington doesn't trade up. Dareus, Miller, Peterson and Green will also be off the board before the 10th pick...and it seems likely that those will be the first six picks, in some order. From 7 to 9, three of the following figure to be selected, either by the 49ers, Titans and Cowboys or teams they trade with: Quinn, Jordan, Watt, J Jones, Fairley, Costanzo, T Smith, Amukamara, Locker, Bowers.
It's hard to imagine CHIX being unhappy with any of those defensive ends, though Quinn would be a OLB in Buffalo. In the improbable circumstance that all of those three defenders went 7, 8, and 9 the Bills would still have options. Costanzo or Smith could really help out the line and Amukamara would reinforce the depleted secondary. I don't know that Jones (depth at WR), Fairley (one year wonder, character issues), or Bowers (knee issues) would get the nod at 10. Unless Nix and Gailey are of one mind on Locker he wouldn't be the pick....and if he was the QB CHIX wanted then there's an excellent chance Buffalo would simply take him at 3 instead of trading back. The odds of either Jordan or Watt (and possibly both) being available at 10 are very high. CHIX didn't reach for Spiller last year, taking him about where he was going to be taken off the board. If Jordan or Watt is the target trading down carries only a minor risk, one that even Buddy Nix may well abide.
The question becomes what it would take to get CHIX to back down the board from 3 to 10. Trading 10 and 41 won't get it done if the Redskins are the ones initiating the process. 10, 41 and 2012's second round pick would equalize the trade. If Snyder was really hot to trot the Bills might be able to get Washington's 2012 third rounder in the deal as well, particularly by sending the Redskins Buffalo's second 4th rounder in this draft. If Nix really wants to play hardball, the trade could be 3 and 99 for 10 and Washington's 2012 first round pick....with 3 and 68 for 10 and Washington's 2012 pick as a slightly softer option.