I hope it doesn't go down this way...
by Ron From NM on Apr 2, 2011 8:04 PM EDT
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PrintWe only have on draft on which to base CHIX’s preferences. (We also have public statements but Nix flat out said not to trust 90% of anything that is said in the draft process.) Once doesn’t equal a trend by any stretch but, since we’re in a lull in terms of football news, let’s check the tea leaves.
2010 Draft
1st round RB CJ Spiller
2nd round DT Torell Troup
3rd round DE Alex Carrington
4th round WR Marcus Easley
5th round OT Ed Wang
6th round DE Arthur Moats
6th round DE Danny Batten
7th round QB Levi Brown
7th round OT Kyle Calloway
Running back wasn’t a need. At all. The Bills had Jackson coming off a good season and Marshawn Lynch was still on the roster. Gailey’s pronouncement early in the draft process that he wanted a waterbug (guess that was the 10% truth we heard…). Nix rationalized the selection by talking up Spiller’s elusiveness and the excitement he’d bring to Buffalo. The Bills were locked in on Spiller, as evidenced by the quick turn in of the card.
To me, that could indicate that CHIX will be looking for someone who is both an instant contributor and who also brings excitement. A guy like Dareus or Bowers would contribute quickly but probably wouldn’t bring much in the way of impact or excitement. With CHIX’s obvious faith in Fitzgerald, any QB would be relegated to the bench—not a contributor, exciting or any sort of impact. The list of potential picks at #3 might quickly be narrowed down to WR AJ Green and LB Von Miller. WRs don’t tend to explode right out of the gate but Miller will have to spend too much time worrying about the run to rush the QB…so his effectiveness will be limited as well. You could try to argue that the Bills would go more for need (defense) but the clearest need in April of 2010 was defensive tackle. You could also try to argue that the Bills don’t need a WR but the Bills didn’t need one in 2010 either.My gut, as much as it disgusts me, suggests that CHIX will take WR AJ Green at #3 instead of one of the defensive linemen or trade down.
In the 2010 draft Nix stated that the Bills tried to trade back into the first round for a player other than QB Tim Tebow. The most likely target was DT Dan Williams. The Bills took Troup in the second round and badly needed a defensive tackle for the newly installed 3-4. It seems plausible that the Bills weren’t after the best player available but rather the best DT available. When Buffalo couldn’t trade back into the first round for Dan Williams, the team took Torell Troup instead. Using the Williams/Troup precedent as a guide, it’s easy to speculate that Buffalo may try to get back into the first to address a crying need.
Buffalo’s second and third round picks equate to KC’s #21 overall. But, if you read my long winded bit on the draft value chart, you know that getting a team to trade out of the first round requires about a 20% premium. Unless a team like Indy or Philly really wants to move back the Bills will likely not be able to make a trade until the upper 20s. I’m pegging the glaring need to be addressed as DE. Jordan, Watt and Bowers will be long gone by the 20s but Buffalo might be interested in Kerrigan or Clayborn. Either a deal happens or it doesn’t—my guess is it doesn’t since I don’t think CHIX will go for the 20% premium getting a team out of the first round take. If the trade up fails then the Bills will, if 2010 is the start of a trend, take a DE in the second round….or LB if he’s rated a lot higher than any available DE.
The Bills went after need in the third round in 2010, taking Alex Carrington to help out the defensive line transition to the 3-4. He wasn’t much of a factor and CHIX likely knew that would be the case going in. I think it’s safe to suggest that round 3 begins the developmental stage for CHIX, though still focused on need. If the Bills don’t trade back into the first round, my guess is that the third round will be the highest remaining DE or LB—whichever position was not addressed earlier. If the Bills do succeed in trading into the back of the first round the first of the fourth rounders figures to be that DE or LB.
In 2010 CHIX used a fourth rounder on Easley, a receiver who wasn’t a need and clearly was a developmental prospect. Wang clearly needed time before he ever had a chance to see action and both Moats and Batten were asked to transition from the defensive line to LB. Brown and Calloway appeared to be flyers on the highest rated player available. I expect the song to remain the same in 2011.
So, if the Bills don’t get back into the first round:
1st round WR AJ Green
2nd round DE or LB
3rd round LB or DE
4th and beyond developmental guys
If CHIX does find a trading partner:
1st round WR AJ Green
1st round DE (Kerrigan or Clayborn
4th round LB
Second 4th round pick and beyond developmental guys
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH…………………… splat!!
"There is not a loser in this room." Marv Levy.
by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Apr 2, 2011 8:38 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I felt that way about Spiller. I never believed the Bills would take a RB at #9 with two RBs on the roster. I was sure it was Dan Williams.
It can always get worse. Let me tell you how.
Me too....Spiller was the last guy I would have taken
I am beyond jumping off tall buildings…..numb sounds about right.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
"Mopeds are fun, but you don't want your buddies to see you riding one"
What about Patrick Peterson?
Maybe they’ll go:
1st rd: Peterson
2nd: DL/QB
Then trade back to the 2nd to get the best ILB available.
Peterson figures to be a solid-good DB shortly after joining the NFL. He’s not going to provide a great deal of excitement right off the bat. Throw in the change in kickoffs and his return ability is pretty much a non-factor. The best case is that he turns into a Revis like DB….who never gets thrown at; great for the defense but not exciting.
I’m not saying that I know Peterson won’t be the pick, just that if Spiller hearlds the future then we can expect some kind of flash from early first round draft picks.
It can always get worse. Let me tell you how.
I am betting on the BPA with high character angle I outlined a few months ago
And that means Peterson, Bowers, Dareus….in that order.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
"Mopeds are fun, but you don't want your buddies to see you riding one"
granted the order I had back then was Peterson, Locker, Green
but Locker tanked at the Sr Bowl and Green wasn’t able to separate himself as an exceptional talent. So, IMO they have dropped down the BPA list enough to allow Bowers and Dareus into the top 3.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
"Mopeds are fun, but you don't want your buddies to see you riding one"
Your problem...
…is that you’re thinking rationally instead of like Nix.
It can always get worse. Let me tell you how.
bad habit :-)
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
"Mopeds are fun, but you don't want your buddies to see you riding one"
THEY saw Spiller as a need pick
People seem to have a hard time understanding this, but it is obvious from everything Nix and Gailey said last year that they viewed Spiller as filling a major need — namely, a quick “waterbug” style RB to be the centerpiece of Gailey’s planned offense. Neither Lynch nor Jackson was a fit for that particular need. It didn’t work out the way they had hoped given Spiller’s problems adjusting to the NFL, but nonetheless they saw themselves as filling a need.
I don’t believe there is a chance in a million that they will pick A.J. Green. Gailey has said over and over (just as he did last year about the “waterbug”) that he wants to emphasize defense heavily in this year’s draft, and that’s what they will do with the sole exception of a QB either at #3 or $34.
Also, their attempt to trade up last year may have been for Dan Williams, but all the stories at the time said that their target was Rodger Saffold, the OT who went to the Rams (and who had the best rookie year of any OT in last year’s draft). I still think their best strategy last year (as I kept saying at the time) would have been to trade down in the first round and then take Saffold, who looks like he is going to be a perpetual Pro Bowl o-lineman. They would then have had two second round picks, one of whom could have been used for Torrell Troup and the other for TE Rob Gronkowski. Now that would have been some draft.
I would have loved an O-lineman in the first. Tackle was a real need. I disagree that RB was; teams with as many holes as the Bills in 2010 don’t need early round RBs.
It can always get worse. Let me tell you how.
i dont think mack was arguing that RB was, in fact, a need. i think hes arguing that nix and gailey believed they needed a scat back type player for their offense, therefore OBD saw RB (of a particular type) as a need. hence the spiller pick. we can disagree with it all we want, but that did seem to be their thought process.
it would be funny if they DO take AJ green using the same kind of logic. “our offense requires a big, tall, wide receiver who can play on the outside. what do you know? the BPA is a big, tall wide receiver who can play on the outside. we wont need a single one of these 10 minutes mr goodell”
Yes, that’s exactly what I was saying. I certainly did not think RB was a need for the Bills last year, but Nix and Gailey apparently did. They were drafting for need (as they saw it) when they took Spiller.
If they had only traded down and taken Saffold instead they would not only have had an OT, but one of the best young OT’s in the NFL today. That’s what I wanted them to do, and I’m sure Ron feels the same way.
AJ Green would be a coup for the Bills...........
PP and AJG are the two best in this class as far as talent goes.
The score dictated they pass
by norcaliangelsfan on Apr 2, 2011 10:23 PM EDT reply actions
Why?
Are you just repeating what was written everywhere before the draft process or have you studied a bunch of prospects? I wonder because I keep hearing that like its gospel but I feel they have flaws like everyone else. Both have low wonderlic scores, for one. I wouldn’t want a WR or CB unless they were head and shoulders above the others and I hope we don’t draft either..
Maybe, but it seems to me like preseason college football polls. Once a team is ranked high, they stay there and are given the benefit of the doubt even as challengers appear. I see red flags on both.
There's Red Flags on every single prospect that is draftable........
AJ Green is 1 or 1A in the draft because he fits many critera………………
-he’s a physically dominating presence
-he’s always one of the two or three best pure athletes on the field
-he’s a proven commodity in games against the best competition
-he’s got “game changing ability” (teams have to plan around/for him)
You want me to go on?
Whether or not you personally like the guy is not really my concern………..There’s a reason why everyone in the media and “football people” talk him up……..he has the potential to be one of the greatest.
He was talked about before he even set foot on UGA’s campus and he delivered………I like the chances of him also delivering when it comes to playing in the NFL.
The score dictated they pass
by norcaliangelsfan on Apr 3, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
the only reason I can get on board with the Bills taking a WR at #3 is because of Green and what you just wrote – he’s simply a better football player than most WR’s.
isn’t that what the Bills need? better football players….?
When you innovate, you've got to be prepared for everyone telling you you're nuts.
by J2 on Apr 4, 2011 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions
good write up
its a good take on why we as fans shouldnt be overly shocked if green is the pick. however i do disagree with this:
In 2010 CHIX used a fourth rounder on Easley, a receiver who wasn’t a need and clearly was a developmental prospect.
errr, correct me if im wrong. but at the time we had lee evans and roscoe parrish, and that was pretty much it. any other receiver we had was a complete unknown (stevie johnson, james hardy). developmental prospect yes, but WR was a big void at the time
as for the green pick im definitely in that third category. at least it means they are making sure the 3rd overall pick brings them legit blue chip talent. we need a QB for the post-fitz era and our defense is awful, but the idea of trying to put together an ultra-talented, high octane offense around fitz doesnt exactly repulse me
tea leaves can be read in different ways
I don’t know if last year is indicative of this years strategy. Last year CHIX was in its first year. They used that year to evaluate talent and transition to new schemes. Nobody last year was chosen on what they would do in year one. They probably assumed a lot of turnover before a playoff run. Someone mentioned the NYG only had four players on the SB team who were there when Eli was drafted.
Spiller filled the need of a home run hitter on offense. I know it didn’t work out that way but we had nobody who was a threat to break a long one but Lee Evans, especially with TO gone. I’d imagine Spiller was BPA by a large margin over the OTs everyone wanted. AJ Green is not head and shoulders above the rest.
Troup and Carrington were necessary to give us a start on scheme change. Again, they weren’t counted on last year but will be this year. When they were drafted Nix said something along the lines of ‘The only way to get bigger, athletic guys on the Dline was to draft them early.’
Easley was picked for special teams the first year and his potential as a speedy WR who liked to block probably proved irresistible. Who knew Stevie would blossom and we’d find guys like Nelson and Jones.
Wang, in my opinion, was a Ralph favorite. He is the first Chinese player in the NFL.
Batten and Moats were efforts to hit small school home runs late. That will be a trend, I believe.
Brown and Calloway were flyers on positions of need.
In short, I don’t expect this years strategy to resemble last years.
I gotta dissagree about Green.
AJ Green is not head and shoulders above the rest.
Everytime he took the field, the opponents best defender new where he was. Every defense knew where he was and the kid just flat out produced. Each year improving from the previous year. The safest thing to say is the odds are greater that Green will succeed in the NFL then he will fail. I can’t say that I have heard anyone say that about any other college player regardless of position. A.J. Green is this years Bradford or Suh, there isn’t any other player coming out this year that most analyst can say that about that player. He is consistently ranked high in every analyst rankings where others are swapped around. He is a very conceivable blue chip prospect and possibly the only one in the top ten with long term franchise type of credentials.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
Almost all those things were said about Spiller. I will say AJ Green would probably have been our pick last year over Spiller but I’d rather have a front 7 player at #3 this year.
I agree, but
I would rather have a front three guy at #7. If that doesn’t happen with a trade down, then I can settle for an A.J. Green. YOUR point is valid.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
I feel like my mind was just read.
I can see things unfolding very similiar to this. I also can see free agency being used to address, OT and DE. Also, I can see Whitner giving us a high future round pick when we lose him to FA that would back fill any curring draft pick we would give up trying to move up in the draft. What we really need is for some team to want our #3 pick more than we do. I agree with Mack above that it is very unlikely that the Bills will draft A.J. Green but if the kid can step in and keep the chains moving on some third downs than he will be worth the pick. It was mentioned on another thread that taking a Green or a Peterson would put pressure on Nix to go defense at #34 instead of a Ponder or a Kaepernick. I agree with this 1000%, but if we are stuck picking at #3 and Green is the BPA then I can’t see us letting him slip by. Our young receivers including Stevie J are just that, young. A.J. Green will not hurt this team. This team may even improve his wonderlic score. Not getting Ponder or Kaepernick will not hurt this team because our strength is Gailey using Fitzpatrick or Thigpen or someone else to get the job done. I can very easily see us going with an offensive player in the first three rounds, Green, Kaepernick, Sherrod or Rudolph. STILL we need someone to want the #3 pick more than we do. I don’t know how to do that but hopefully, there is a Redskin or a Cowboy out there that can make it happen.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
aj green
is a beast. we would be very fortunate to have him on this team.
Buffalo, that's where it's at baby. - Adam 'Pacman' Jones
To us winning is a tradition. We are victors and need not explain. You may hate us, but your girlfriends love us. - BC
One more than Shaq. - Kobe answering how it felt to win Championship number 5.
Green is NOT a beast
Green isn’t really a beast. He has a slight build and won’t always be able to outmuscle people getting off the line of scrimmage in the NFL. He also runs a 4.5 40, which is fast, but not astounding. Also, and perhaps most important, his Wonderlic was very low, raising the question of how easily he will be able to learn how to run complex routes. He will almost certainly be a good NFL WR, but it is NOT a sure-thing that he will be all that remarkable. For the Bills to take Green — or any other WR — at pick #3 would be an act of gross stupidity.
if you really think green will not be
a beast in the nfl because hes not as fast as you think he should be and didnt score a.s high on some pointless test, then im not sure i can really debate the matter with you.
pretty sure being a wr is more than just speed and doing well on a test. besides we already knew he wasnt the smartest, i mean he went to UGA and all…..ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh wheres cinga when you need him
Buffalo, that's where it's at baby. - Adam 'Pacman' Jones
To us winning is a tradition. We are victors and need not explain. You may hate us, but your girlfriends love us. - BC
One more than Shaq. - Kobe answering how it felt to win Championship number 5.
by silverstreak3k on Apr 4, 2011 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
First off i would like to say 40s arent that great a statitisic to use. DIdyou know Jerry rice ran A 4.6 40. I billiieve. Also wonderlic scores are leaked so they can be wrong numers. From what I could find LArry fitzgerald had one of the better wonderlic scores among receivers at 18. Football players are more about football iq then their real iq. Funny thing is you score to high and you actually hurt your draft stock lol.
Rodger Goodell to number one draft pick of 2011
"So whats it like to know your not getting paid till next year oh and do not forget to smile while shaking my hand"
Disastrous Draft if it's not Front 7 or QB
A WR or CB would be a huge mistake. This draft class has a great deal of talent at DL/LB, which is where the Bills have greater need right now. Bowers or Dareus or Fairley or Quinn – or Newton or Gabbert. At least four of them will be available. Pick one that you like, FO.
I really don't think this is a possibility
I truly believe that Patrick peterson is at the top of their board. Here is the way I think their board looks like:
Peterson
Dareus
Miller
Green
Newton
So basically I only see Peterson, Dareus or Miller at #3
And I really don’t see any possibility of them trading down. These three top guys as as close to sure bets as you can get, they all project to being future probowlers, they all fit a need on our team. Nix does not like trading on draft day so unless someone offers him the moon I see him taking one of those 3 guys at #3
Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience
completely agree
This is no time to get cute with an offensive pick. We have a plethora of offensive talent in development. Our greatest needs are clearly on the other side especially considering the competition in the AFCEast. Another thing to keep in mind is our fragility at QB. If Fitz goes down, then what? Therefore, we still have a QB need that could be addressed in RD 2. What happens to all that great rookie talent at WR we developed last year if we make a ridiculous pick like AJ Green at #3? I would be very pleased with Miller, Dareus or Peterson, instead.
CC Infantino
And I really believe that Peterson & Miller are BPAs as well. It’s great that they also fill a need but they are above Green as far as i am concerned.
Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience
I am not sure Miller is an elite talent....I like the guy, but
he is currently 4th on my list and that is probably high. Nix said we would add two ILBs, right? Miller is not an ILB. He is an OLB. We have Moats, Merriman, and Batten to play on the outside. Stroud is gone….you have to think they are going to try to replace him with an early draft pick.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
"Mopeds are fun, but you don't want your buddies to see you riding one"
true
but 3-4 require more linebackers and it is not unheard of to have 8-10 LB’s. The problem becomes when we use oth the 3-4 and 4-3 because then you have to carry more DE and dt’s on the active roster as well. difficult to manage. Besids merriman may struggle or have injury and batten didn’t play at all last year. I can see miller in 1st or reed in the second.
He is an OLB. We have Moats, Merriman, and Batten to play on the outside
Don’t forget, um, what’s his name? Oh, yeah! Aaron Maybin.
It can always get worse. Let me tell you how.
Who :-)
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
"Mopeds are fun, but you don't want your buddies to see you riding one"
I was wondering if anyone was going to catch that.
Anyone but Cam Newton at #3
"Mopeds are fun, but you don't want your buddies to see you riding one"
Peterson will be the pick before Green
Nix’s track record with the Chargers bears this out. San Diego drafted projects in later rounds, just like Easley, and developed them. They focused in taller, basketball style receivers that could out-size their opponents.
The Chargers also collected high round corners: Jammer, Davis, Cromartie, and Cason. Cason was selected with Jammer and Cromartie on the team.
I could easily see Peterson being the pick. Green doesn’t fit the MO.
Starting the official Buffalo "Draft Owen Marecic in 2011" campaign.
green is 6'4
215. i think he fits the criteria. especially when he puts on his nfl weight.
Buffalo, that's where it's at baby. - Adam 'Pacman' Jones
To us winning is a tradition. We are victors and need not explain. You may hate us, but your girlfriends love us. - BC
One more than Shaq. - Kobe answering how it felt to win Championship number 5.
by silverstreak3k on Apr 4, 2011 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
run game
We need a strong running game to control the clock. That would open up the passing game. We have a pretty good passing attack based on what we saw last year. It should be better than last year for 2011.
You can’t get that running game going when you are down 2 scores early in the game. The defense needs top stop the run of the Jets and the pass from the Pats. Having a shut down corner like Peterson would likely improve the front 7’s effectiveness or having a good run stuffer up front might give the defense more 3 & outs, thus giving our offense more looks. Going defense is critical for the first pick, whether it is DE, LB or CB. If Dareus is gone then it has to be Peterson or LB.
CC Infantino
fitzpatrick
Not Fitzgerald
"The Buffalo Bills have just exploded all over the Cincinnati Bangles"
-Steve Tasker-
by billsoferie on Apr 3, 2011 10:42 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think Green has a harder time seeing the field than Spiller did
and they knew they were trading Lynch…which is why they started him to begin the season. it was a master plan…not just shooting from the hip. Green has Evans, Parrish, Johnson, Jones, Nelson, Easley, and Rosevelt to compete with, thats seven guys. This goes against your argument because He would not see the field which would make him not an immediate impact, which rules him off the list. Same with Miller, Too much invested in Merriman and Kelsey, with Moats, Batten and Coleman all in the wings, I dont see room for Miller. I think both of these guys have too much competition for playing time, it would have to be DE or CB if they go with an immediate starter, and QB if they want to rile up the fan base and stir the pot a little.
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