I would like to do a short term(3 year) look at this years draft prospects and turn it into a competition for you Rumblers. My idea is to take the top 32 prospects and let you rate them now for how you think they will turn out for each year for the first three years (Boom, Bout right, and Bust). I will then go to each prospects SB Nation site at the end of each year and poll their fans as to how they view their prospect that their team picked this year. They will be given a choice of (Boom, Bout right, and Bust). Then we will compare these results to your picks and award points based on the accuracy of your projections. The first years points will be 25% of the total score, and a first year leader will be announced (2/2012). The second years points will be 35% of the total score and will be added to the first years points for a possible new leader (2/2013). Then the third years points 40% will be added in approximately (2/2014) and a grand champion crowned. I think this will be a lot of fun to do and it will be a good exercise to keep us up to date with some of the other teams picks over time. It could give some bragging rights when we want to tout our prospects in future drafts. It could also help teach some of us to tone down our rhetoric when we find out we dont know as much as we thought we did. The main reason for doing this though is I want us all to see how many busts are picked every year. Good teams and bad teams pick busts. While we may be the best and most consistent at it, we are not the only team picking top round busts.
Lets get into some of the details that I feel comftorable about.
Scoring: I dont want this to turn into a safe pick wins thing. So I want the points system to reward your honest oppinion of a prospect if you turn out to be right. I want the points to reward bold predictions or this could get boring. I would think that bust and boom votes will grow as a % as time goes by as a clearer picture emerges of the prospect. That is why I want the last year to be a higher % of the total points. I have several ideas on a point system, but I would like you input also as one of you might have a much better (fair) system then the one I have in mind.
My idea was to give 50 points per player to rumblers that guessed correctly the highest poll catagory. An additional 50 points could be earned if more then 70% agreed in the poll, or 25 points if more then 50%. If the rumbler guessed wrong and more fans thought he was in another catagory, but his guess was the second highest in the poll he would be awarded 30 points for that prospect. If you guessed wrong and only the smallest group of fans agreed with you you would be given the same ammount of points as the % in that group. Example if 8% of the fan base agree with your projection then you would be given 8 points. As you can see each rumbler will be able to get 0-100 points per 32 prospects. All will be added up and each rumbler should end up with a score of (1-3200) This score will be multiplied by 2.5 representing the 25% for the first years points.
The highest % of fans in the poll agree with your projection. (50 points)
Over 70% of fans in the poll agree with your projection. ( additional 50 points)
Over 50% of fans in the poll agree with your projection. ( additional 25 points)
The second highest % of fans in the poll agree with your projection. (30 points)
The smallest % of fans in the poll agree with your projection. (points= % in poll)
I project draft pick #1 to be a bust, year #1 poll comes back (10% boom/19% bout right/71% bust) I get 100 points.
I project draft pick #1 to be a bust, year #1 poll comes back (30% boom/10% bout right/60% bust) I get 75 points.
same (37% boom/24% bout right/39% bust) I get 50 points.
same (45% boom/ 20% bout right/35% bust) I get 30 points.
same (60%boom/ 35% bout right/ 5% bust) I get 5 points.
I hope that makes sence, but you might have a simpler better way to do the points.
I also thought it would be easier to project a grade of A=Boom, C= Bout right, and F= Bust. So when you make your submission of your projections it would look like this.
#1 A/A/C #2 C/C/F #3 A/A/A and so on. Nice grade for us right!!! All the way through #32.
Let me know if you would like to participate in this or if you have any ideas on how it could be better.
I will need to get this started soon so you can get your projections in prior to the real draft. So if you have any suggestions please let me know soon.