In just under a week the 2011 NFL draft is going to start and I think I have a good idea on what the Bills are going to do in the 1st 2 rounds. I'd say the odds of this happening, in my twisted mind, is about 95%. Mind you I don't know what players the Bills are going to take, but I think I have an idea how they are going to go about it.
I think the Bills are going to say pat at #3 and not trade up or down. Not exactly a revelation, but I just think that they want an impact player and don't want to chance trading down and not getting one of the top prospects this year.
The impact player at 3 won't be a QB. Actually i'm going to say right now that it is not going to be Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert. The reason is both of them have way too many question marks (serious question marks if you ask me) and too high of a bust potential for the Bills to consider taking them 3. Buddy has said that "they have to get it right". Well if they are trying to get it right then would they gamble on one of those 2 QBs? I don't think so and this year is loaded with potential 2nd round QBs that i'm sure makes Buddy think of the Drew Brees selection while he was at San Diego.
I honestly believe that the Bills are going to take either Dareus, Miller or Peterson at 3. Those are the best 3 players in the draft and one of them will be a Buffalo Bill when they pick. Those guys are too talented and have a much, much lower bust rate than either of the QBs.
This is also a perfect year to grab a guy early in the 2nd round and develop him. Ponder, Locker if he's there, Kaepernick, Mallett, Dalton. I'd guess the Bills probably like 2 or 3 of those guys enough to consider or take them at 34. I think Ponder and Locker, if both there, would be a tough call for OBD but I think they'd pick one of them if they were both there - with Locker getting the upper hand in my opinion.
With that scenario we get one of the best players in this draft and a QB for the future. I really think that's how Buddy and Chan view this playing out. It's a perfect class for 2nd round QBs and we're sitting right at the top of the 2nd round with basically our pick of the litter. I'm sure NE will try and throw a wrench in our plans but I don't think it will be enough to not grab a guy we like.
This really is a great strategy if you ask me and kind of a no brainier as well. I honestly think Buddy and Chan know that they can't screw up at 3. To me that leaves out the QBs.
Buddy said that he is confident in Chan at developing QBs - another perfect reason to grab a stud at 3 and grab a guy at 34 that we can develop and let sit behind Fitzpatrick for a year or two. Buddy has confidence that Chan will get the most out of whatever QB he selects. There are plenty of guys at 34 who have good work ethic (intangibles) and physical ability that would make them great selections. I think Chan wants to mold a guy and guys that don't go in the 1st round usually have a chip on their shoulder and work harder (not entitled).
Taking all of those factors into consideration - I am pretty confident in saying that's how the first 2 rounds will go - at least I hope so.