With less than a month until the draft it may be time to take a look at the Bakers Dozen and separate the ‘contenders’ from the ‘pretenders’… To do so, I modified a ranking system to evaluate the prospects and determine who would be the best fit for the Bills at #3 overall…

Ratings were determined using the following system, adapted from a system designed to evaluate QB’s (see Der Jaeger’s post “Everything in Between”)

Caliber (30%)

Positional Importance (25%)

Positional Need (10%)

Immediate Impact (10%)

Risk (10%)

Value (10%)

Production (5%)

 

Players were rated in each category, and given the following scores based on their skill set.

 

 Note: Players rankings are based on average top 10 prospects. A rating of three does not imply that player is average as a prospect, but rather as a top 10 pick.

 

5= elite

4= above average

3= average

2= below average

1= poor

 

Caliber: Essentially, this is a tier ranking. It is a comparative ranking to both other prospects and top prospects of recent drafts.

 

Positional Importance: This is a ranking of how important the prospects position and skill set is. Priority was given to QB’s, who were the only ones to receive 5’s in this category. OLB’s can impact the game more than any other position in the 3-4, so they were given a rating of 4 in this category. DL and OL were given ratings of 3, and skill positions received a rating of 2.

 

Positional Need: This ranking is based off a combination of the Bills current players at the position and the prospects schematic fit and versatility.

 

Immediate Impact: This is pretty straight forward- 5 would be a pro-bowl candidate, 4 an impact player, 3 a starter, 2 a back up, and 1 a developmental player.

 

Risk: Evaluation of how safe or risky the prospect is. Higher rankings imply a more conservative pick, while a lower ranking implies a higher risk.

 

Value: This ranking is, more or less, how much stronger of a prospect the player is than lower ranked prospects at their position. Basically, what is the difference in quality between this prospect and ones at the same position whom should be available in late first/early second? Can you wait to address the position?

 

Production: How productive was the player throughout their college career? Once again, think relative to a top 10 prospect. A 5 would be a two time Heisman Candidate (Ingram, Tebow), while 4 would be consistent top level production or one outstanding season. A rating of three would imply the prospect was consistently an impact player, 2 a player whose production was below what you would expect for a top 10 pick, and a 1 would imply that the player is being drafted based on their abilities alone.

 

 

Cam Newton

 

Caliber: 3    Undeniable physical talent, but comparative to the likes of Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford, or Matt Stafford he is not on the same level as a QB.

Positional Importance: 5    see Positional Importance above

Positional Need: 4    Bills have an average starter at QB, but need a long term option.

Immediate Impact: 1    Newton needs a full year of development at the very least, possibly two.

Risk: 2    QB’s are a risk to begin with, and Newton’s accuracy and decision making have never been put to the test.

Value: 3    Newton and Gabbert are the clear top two QB’s, but Locker, Ponder, and Kaepernick are not extremely far behind as prospects.

Production: 4    Newton’s Heisman campaign this season and Junior College championship two years ago earns him a score of 4. One more season of solid production at the Division 1 level would have earned him a score at 5.

 

Rating: 3.35

 

Blaine Gabbert

 

Caliber: 3    Good overall skill set, but is not elite in any one area.

Positional Importance: 5    See Positional Importance above

Positional Need: 4    See Cam Newton

Immediate Impact: 2    Gabbert is not pro ready now, but could be developed quicker than Newton.Could potentially start this season if Fitzpatrick were to be injured.

Risk: 3    QB’s always are a high risk, but Gabbert seems to have a solid overall skill set. Does he have the physical and mental tools to be an elite QB in this league?

Value: 3    See Cam Newton

Production: 1    17 TD, 9 INT is not the kind of stats you generally look for in a top 10 QB

 

Rating: 3.4

 

Marcell Dareus

 

Caliber: 4    Big, Strong, Powerful. Not the same caliber of prospect as Suh a year ago or Green/Peterson, but a great prospect

Positional Importance: 3    see Positional Importance above

Positional Need: 5    5-technique is possibly the biggest need on the team, and Dareus’ ability to play DT in a 4-3 and hold a gap makes him even more valuable from a schematic stand point.

Immediate Impact: 4    Dareus would immediately be an impact player.

Risk: 4    Low risk prospect with a high ceiling.

Value: 4    Despite a draft deep and talented at DL nobody can measure up to Dareus’ physical skill set or versatility

Production: 3    Very productive impact player both his sophomore and junior season. Came to play in the National Championship game in 2009.

 

Rating: 3.8

 

DaQuan Bowers

 

Caliber: 4    Stout against the run and skilled as a pass rusher. Lacks burst to be an elite pass rusher in the NFL, but will get his share of sacks.

Positional Importance: 3    see Positional Importance above

Positional Need: 4    5-technique is a huge need, and so is 4-3 DE.

Immediate Impact: 3    Would immediately start, but may need some time to play up to his potential.

Risk: 3    Will likely be a solid starter and stout against the run, but will he ever become the impact player you look for at #3 overall?

Value: 4    Much more versatile and talented than the 5-techniques that would be available later in the draft

Production: 4    Was always productive against the run, but emerged this season as a talented pass rusher.

 

Rating: 3.55

 

Nick Fairley

 

Caliber: 3    Overall solid prospect with great a burst and good power.

Positional Importance: 3    see Positional Importance above

Positional Need: 3    Could play 5-technique, but to maximize his skills it would limit our schematic versatility. Projects to be a taller Kyle Williams.

Immediate Impact: 3    Could start right away, but wouldn’t be a stand out playing as a 3-4 DE

Risk: 2    Not very stout and may get pushed around in the pros. Does he have to motivation to be great?

Value: 2    If the Bills are looking for a 5-technique they would find much better value in the 2nd or 3rd 

Production: 4    Outstanding junior season after two quiet seasons his first two years at Auburn

 

Rating: 2.85

 

Robert Quinn

 

Caliber: 4   Pure rash rusher with elite skill set

Positional Importance: 4   Evaluating Quinn as a 3-4 OLB, see Positional Importance above

Positional Need: 3   An upgrade over Kelsay/Moats  would be nice, but isn’t a dire need. Quinn would project best as a 4-3 DE, but as a 3-4 OLB he would limit the DC’s options schematically.

Immediate Impact: 2   After taking a year off from football Quinn is still very raw

Risk: 2   High risk, high reward. Will Quinn return to the form he showed in 2009?

Value: 2   As a 3-4 OLB an option such a Sheard or Ayers would provide a much better value.

Production: 3   Would have easily been a 4 if he had been able to return to North Carolina last season.

 

Rating: 3.25

 

Von Miller

 

Caliber: 4    Has the skills to be an elite edge rusher as a 3-4 OLB who could also drop into coverage

Positional Importance: 4    see Positional Importance above

Positional Need: 3    We have solid depth at OLB, but until Merriman proves he has returned to form we can’t rule out OLB as a need

Immediate Impact: 4    Would immediately improve the pass rush and put pressure on the QB

Risk: 3    Miller is undersized and needs to get bigger to be a top tier player. Much better and more productive prospect than Maybin, but a eerily similar skill set.

Value: 4    Far and away the best 3-4 OLB in this draft.

Production: 3    Had stretches of games where he was highly productive, and stretches where he blended in with everyone else.

 

Rating: 3.75

 

 

Cameron Jordan

 

Caliber: 2    Solid overall prospect, but in terms of physical talent not quite on par with the other top DE options

Positional Importance: 3    see Positional Importance above

Positional Need: 4    Would be an ideal fit as a 5-technique and would be an upgrade to current personal as a 4-3 DE

Immediate Impact: 3    Immediate starter, but probably would take a season to truly make an impact.

Risk: 4   You know exactly what you’re getting with Jordan.

Value: 3    Certainly better and more versatile than 2nd round options, but by a large enough margin to justify taking him at #3?

Production: 3    Was a consistent impact player at Cal

 

Rating: 2.9

 

JJ Watt

 

Caliber: 2    see Cameron Jordan

Positional Importance: 3    see Positional Importance above

Positional Need: 3    Would fill a need at 3-4 DE, but isn’t as strong of a 4-3 end as Jordan

Immediate Impact: 3    see Cameron Jordan

Risk: 4    see Cameron Jordan

Value: 2    Would be drafted purely as a 5-technique, and he is not a physically talented enough prospect to warrant a top 5 selection at that position

Production: 3    see Cameron Jordan

 

Rating: 2.7

 

 

Patrick Peterson

 

Caliber: 5    undoubtedly the most talented defensive player in the draft.

Positional Importance: 2    see Positional Importance above

Positional Need: 3    with Florence a FA and McGee’s injury history we could certainly use a talented CB.

Immediate Impact: 4    would jump in immediately and make an impact both defensively and in the return game

Risk: 4    the cleanest player in the draft.

Value: 5    you won’t find someone with Peterson’s talents in most drafts, yet alone in the 2nd round

Production: 4    Was a shutdown corner who consistently made big plays against top competition.

 

Rating: 3.8

 

Prince Amukamara

 

Caliber: 3    big, physical CB with solid athleticism

Positional Importance: 2    see Positional Importance above

Positional Need: 3   see Patrick Peterson

Immediate Impact: 3   Would initially be the Nickel but would likely end up starting during the season.

Risk: 4   You pretty much know what you’re going to get with Prince

Value: 3   You won’t find as physical and athletic of a CB in the 2nd round, but not really a top 5 talent.

Production: 3    Was also a shutdown CB, just without all the big plays that Peterson made in the return game.

 

Rating: 2.85

 

Julio Jones

 

Caliber: 3    Physical, strong WR who turned a lot of heads at the combine

Positional Importance: 2    see Positional Importance above

Positional Need: 1    We have a lot of depth at WR and Julio Jones would essentially be the same position as Steve Johnson

Immediate Impact: 2    Probaly wouldn’t see the field over Evans or Johnson as a rookie

Risk: 3    On the surface seems like a safe player, but always be cautious with WR’s who see their stock sky rocket after a strong combine

Value: 4    You won’t find a WR this well rounded in the 2nd, but if you’re looking for a big play WR you could probably find better options in the 2nd

Production: 3   Made an impact despite Alabama’s run-first attack, but his hands were inconsistent

 

Rating: 2.55

 

 

AJ Green

 

Caliber: 5   rare talent. Best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson

Positional Importance: 2   see Positional Importance above

Positional Need: 2   Green would play opposite to Steve Johnson and would be a much better complement than Julio Jones. Still, we have Evans and a plethora of young talent at the position.

Immediate Impact: 4   WR prospects this talented generally come in as a rookie and get around 800 yds and 6 scores... I would expect the same from Green

Risk: 4   not a lot of bad things you can say about the way he plays the game.

Value: 5   there isn’t a WR of this caliber in most drafts, especially not in the 2nd round.

Production: 4   consistently put up big numbers at Georgia, didn’t matter who was throwing him the ball.

 

Rating: 3.7

 

 

 

 

1) Marcell Dareus   3.8

1) Patrick Peterson    3.8

3) Von Miller    3.75

4) AJ Green    3.7

5) DaQuan Bowers   3.55

6) Blaine Gabbert    3.4

7) Cam Newton    3.35

8) Robert Quinn    3.25

9)  Cameron Jordan    2.9

T10) Prince Amukamara    2.85

T10) Nick Fairley    2.85

12) JJ Watt   2.7

13) Julio Jones   2.55

 

 

 

And I really, really hate to do this, but if I don’t there is going to be about 100 posts on how this system isn’t fair for QB’s or something along those lines…

 

So with much regret, here are Andrew Lucks scores…

 

Caliber: 5 

Positional Importance: 5

Positional Need: 4

Immediate Impact: 2

Risk: 4

Value: 5  

Production: 4 

 

Rating: 4.45

 

And here are Bradfords (if he were in this draft)…

 

Caliber: 4

Positional Importance: 5

Positional Need: 4

Immediate Impact: 2

Risk: 3

Value: 5 

Production: 5

 

Rating: 4.1

 

 

So there it is. Based on my opinion, I don’t think there is a QB worth drafting at #3 this year, at least not with all the other talent on the board. I have pretty much limited my scope to Dareus, Peterson, Green, Bowers, and Miller- and most likely 3-4 will be available for us to choose from. I just hope we make the right choice.