Opinion: Bills Will Wait To Talk Contract With Ryan Fitzpatrick

Second, I think that this is a tricky situation.

If Ryan is the long term guy, then its a no brainer, give him the long term deal (5-6 years).

If hes not the long term guy, then Im not sure why Fitz would re-sign here. I dont think that, like you said, a guy in his prime would only sign a 2-3 year deal, which is what us fans would want if were drafting “The Future” in next years draft.

Honestly, Im not sure how you go about this if youre OBD.

It concerns me that Fitz could expect contracts in the realm of Romo, Garrard and Cassel. I just don’t think he’s worth that, but if that’s what the market is, oh well. I just hope signing him up to something along those lines doesn’t deter the front office from earnestly looking for an upgrade.

Nothing is more important to a front office than finding and securing the franchise quarterback. This could be the biggest decision of the Nix regime. Obviously if they sign him and he turns out great Nix looks genius, and if Fitz never becomes the franchise guy Nix is likely removed from his post. This is a major major decision and I expect the Bills to take their sweet time with it.

By not drafting a QB in this years draft, perhaps they truly are considering that Fitz could be a long term solution if he continues to develop and improve. If this is their thinking, I would imagine they try to lock him up early to something slightly less than Garrard or Shaub (maybe in the $7mil/year range). If they decide to wait, and he performs well, you can guarantee it will go up to the $9-10 million/year range very quickly.

Wow…. those numbers are waaaayyyy higher than I was thinking, mainly because of the 8-13 record. I certainly don’t think the Bills will be signing any six-year deals with Fitzpatrick unless he comes in and lights the place up in the Fall and leads the team to the playoffs.

Let’s talk Kyle Orton, shall we? He had 48 NFL starts, 15 with the Broncos when they gave him a two-year deal worth $11.6M. His record with the Broncos was 8-7 and he was certainly looked at as a potential long-term answer in Denver. But they had just drafted Tim Tebow so they needed a shorter contract and one that was for quasi-starter money.

That’s the kind of deal I’d love the Bills to sign Fitzpatrick to. A two or three-year deal worth a little over $6M per. He’s not the unquestioned starter like everyone on your list. I don’t think anyone thinks as highly of Fitz now as any of these QBs when they got their contracts.

The question is the monetary dispersments. What would a Pennington salary be three years ago, what would a Doug Flutie deal be today at the age of 28, what is wrong with Kyle Orton’s deal with the Bronco’s, Matt Schaub’s deal listed above. Yes they have time but as far as doubt from the front office, I believe that doubt has been determined. A small market team with a QB that the FO believes in, I can see a huge signing bonus and a substantial annual salary for the first three years of a five year contract. I am thinking 15M signing bonus with an average of 8 million over the first three years, down to 5-6 over the last two, with incentives to bring it back up if performance allows.

5 years 30 million 20 guaranteed front loaded so the last 2 years he only makes 2-3 mill a year

I agree with MRW that these contracts are too high and not the most comparable situations. These contract lengths for a career journeyman who is just coming off his breakout year (which still saw him finish in the Jason Campbell, Alex Smith, Shaun Hill QB rating range) are crazy.

I think Fitz belongs in more of the Kyle Orton situation that Matt discussed. Maybe with a 3rd year tacked on (basically a two year extension with a raise for this season) is something that Buffalo should consider. Derek Anderson would be a good example of a breakout QB who had his flaws and was given a short term (3 years) deal. Even the 2 year, 8 mil contract that the Raiders gave to Jason Campbell after trading for him seems way more comparable than Tony Romo or Matt Cassel.

The Chiefs traded a 2nd round pick for Cassel and are trying to make him into a franchise player. That’s not a similar situation. Same with Romo and Dallas. That contract was a long term commitment with Romo as the presumed unquestioned starter four or five years down the road.

David Garrard was coming off a season in which he had a QB rating over 100. He threw TDs at a higher clip than Fitz did last season, but he also did it very efficiently, throwing only 3 INTs in 325 attempts and averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt.

I think we’re getting way ahead of ourselves with Fitz. Everybody always loves the new guy. If the Bills are thinking anything other than short term, this is a buyer beware situation that will almost definitely cost them down the road.

One possibility is the Bills signing him to a three year deal that is loaded with incentives. That way, we reward good play with increased income and baseline the rest if his performance drops off. fitz has yet to show that he has overcome his propensity to throw flutter balls late in a game. Last year, his arm was fresh at the start of the season. This year, he will have lots of reps as the starter, then be expected to play at a high level for the entire season. I for one am skeptical of his arms durability.

  There have been several game analysis of the offense and the defense from last year. I’d love to see someone analyze Fitz errant throws and whether or not there is a common thread amongst them. From what I recall, most of his flutter balls were thrown after halftime. How many passes between flutter throws or inaccurate passes?

infact I have severe reservations of inking him to any deal……..I realize that he might cost more if he plays above average or even great in 2011, but that would be a risk I would want to take.

If he plays like he did last year I still wouldnt sign him for a deal more than 2 years…..and I would IMMEDIATELY draft a QBOTF……..because if 2010 is what we can expect from Fitz then he’s not a guy I would want to go into battle with beyond 2011.