Football Outsiders Examines Buffalo's Poor Run Defense

by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2011 8:30 AM EDT in Buffalo Bills News

It's not exactly a secret that the Buffalo Bills haven't been able to stop the run over the last two seasons. The team had the 30th-ranked run defense in the NFL in 2009, surrendering 156.3 rushing yards per game. They'd have taken that level of production in 2010, when that average jumped to 169.6 yards per game - good enough to rank the Bills dead last in the league.

The folks at Football Outsiders have further clarified some of Buffalo's struggles against the run, as several Bills defenders ranked near the bottom of the league in run stop rate. FO has an explanation of the metric at that link, but in essence, it measures the number of stops a defender makes short of acceptable yards allowed on a specific down.

At linebacker, Paul Posluszny had the third-worst run stop rate in the league last year, while Andra Davis and Akin Ayodele ranked Nos. 6 and 7, respectively. On the defensive line, Dwan Edwards had the sixth-worst run stop percentage, while Spencer Johnson just snuck out of the bottom ten. In the defensive backfield, Donte Whitner ranked among the league's worst, though did make 25 more run stops than any other DB in the league.

Not all was lost, however, as FO also went out of its way to praise - who else? - Kyle Williams.

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Comments

Weren't there some people here who wanted to trade Lynch for Hawk?

Imagine Hawk and Poz together. To folk heroes with the highest jersey sales on the team being a freeway up the middle of the field.

by telka on Jun 3, 2011 8:47 AM EDT reply actions

Poz = Pretender

Numbers don’t lie

Move on from him

by freddyjj on Jun 3, 2011 8:51 AM EDT reply actions

The whole defense outside of kyle williams sucked last year. Poz can not really do a whole lot in a 3-4 if he is always trying to fight off a blocker that is suppose to be on say a DE.

"This is a chance to shine some light on the city, They say it’s too cold. I’m going to bring some warmth to it." Marcell Dareus

by matthew62 on Jun 3, 2011 8:56 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Not much insight to this. I feel sorta like so if you have the leagues worst run defense. It usually means most of the defense played bad against the run. It sorta common sense.

"This is a chance to shine some light on the city, They say it’s too cold. I’m going to bring some warmth to it." Marcell Dareus

by matthew62 on Jun 3, 2011 8:58 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

At linebacker, excluding the Bills and up to Williams of Denver, every other player at the top of the “worst” list played on a Top 20 rushing defense.

Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford

by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2011 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions

If I am interpreting this statistic correctly

if you were in a position to make a tackle but never touched the ball carrier then it does NOT affect your “run stop rate” at all. But if one of your team mates (say Kelsay getting juked in the open field by a QB) whiffs completely on a tackle and you end up tackling the guy after he made a first down then your rating will reflect all of that gain. Somehow this strikes me as an ineffective approach to measuring. In this Kelsey example the 2nd player was cleaning up the mess that came his way. Penalizing for a teammates lack of execution seems unfair.

Year two is upon us.

by Buffalo for Eternity on Jun 3, 2011 9:22 AM EDT reply actions

Thanks for bringing Kelsey into this.

YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde

by VanScottM on Jun 3, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions

The only way that’s true is if they’re trying to sell run stop rate as a metric consistently applied across all three positional groups. They’re not. A 50% rating for a defensive lineman is much more alarming than a 50% rating for a safety. They’re not selling it as anything more than charting where a player made his plays. They even said in the article it’s an imperfect stat.

Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford

by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2011 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Of course

But its an imperfect stat that more than a few people have immediately interpreted in the “poz sucks” or “whitner stinks” theme.

by greysquirrel on Jun 3, 2011 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions

My Goodness

To me this is useless information put together by some one who has too much time on their hands (Dam lock-out/strike)… It just confirms that the Bills lack talent at the point of attack. Football is a team sport where every player’s performance on a play contributes to the success or failure of his teammates and the unit as a whole.

"There’s a difference between a good manager and a great one. The good one will tell you there’s more than one way to skin a cat. A great manager will convince the cat it’s necessary. Sparky had the cats carrying the knives to him."

-- Johnny Bench

by Goose22 on Jun 3, 2011 9:29 AM EDT reply actions

Sigh. It’s not useless information.

Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford

by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions

However, the defense played as though they were pretty useless.

In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jun 3, 2011 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

ha!

When you innovate, you've got to be prepared for everyone telling you you're nuts.

by J2 on Jun 3, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Run With It

A QB is like a King in chess, if you don't have one you lose! Get a QB Buffalo!
.

by buffalobacker on Jun 3, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Why not? Every other defense did...

by NHBillzFan on Jun 3, 2011 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m sure someone finds this useful just not me… I’ve become over-saturated with stats.

As Mark Twain said “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.” That’s not saying the FO is lying but it is based on their system of grading.

-- Johnny Bench

by Goose22 on Jun 3, 2011 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions

It’s no secret the unit stunk last year. The draft illustrates that fact quite clearly. What this does is help pinpoint to fans exactly where and how their weaknesses were exploited. At least that’s what I take from this and other similar studies.

In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jun 3, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

A very logical comment

also very true IMO.

YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde

by VanScottM on Jun 3, 2011 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions

They were exploited by getting runners past the line of scrimmage as far as possible before they got tackled.

by greysquirrel on Jun 3, 2011 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

They want to be the SABR of football, but that’s just not happening. Baseball you can measure everything, and is more or less a one on one game. Football has exponentially more variables, so it does get annoying when FO pretends they have a stat as good as OPS or something.

by cjf4 on Jun 3, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions

I like that quote.

Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford

by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions

I think its pretty useless in quantifying what it claims to be quantifying, which is the ability of individual players to stop the run. If its only charts the number of yards beyond the line of scrimmage that a player makes a tackle on a run play, it is not capturing the whole picture.

That said I do think this information illustrates a recurring problem with the TEAM defense. The fact that all of our ILBs make their run tackles an average of ~4 yds beyond LOS points to a deficiencies in our down linemen or possibly consistent failure on behalf of the OLBs to set the edge on outside runs. That’s my interpretation of that stat, anyway, and it doesn’t have anything to do with individual abilities. I really don’t think anyone should be drawing conclusions or confirming suspicions about individuals based on this info alone.

THAT is why i'm serious.

by Trashplate on Jun 3, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Excellent post.

Year two is upon us.

by Buffalo for Eternity on Jun 3, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

More bad news for Whitner, I suppose.

In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jun 3, 2011 9:29 AM EDT reply actions

not in the slightest. if you read the article, you’ll see that he’s actually one of the most prolific run tacklers in the backfield. the DB list is all guys who play FS and off the line, since even if they make the last-man stop, they’ve given up what FO considers to be a successful play. a DB with 45% or better is considered exemplary, and whitner was not only good in hitting close to the line, he also did it a LOT.

according to these stats, he was the second-best run defender on the team last year, behind kyle williams. he had a spectacular year, coverage issues nonwithstanding.

check out my music! http://prophetikmusic.net

Steve Tasker: A website called Buffalo Ramble has dubbed Kyle Johnson "Meatbasket."
Gus Johnson: WWWEOEWWWOOOOOOGGGHOOOWWWW. College Basketball, HA HA.
-Kurupt

yipi yapa llari llara yara bing bong my name is Dnkey Kong - abayarde

by the_prophet on Jun 3, 2011 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Whitner is an engima. That’s all I can really say about him.

In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jun 3, 2011 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Stopping the run is a team effort

Grading the ultimate tackler kind of misses the point. If running backs get free the ultimate tackler looks bad based on this metric. It’s not necessarily the tacklers fault (in fact, he might be the guy hustling to make a play downfield). So its worth noting, we tackle a lot of gus downfield, but it’s less clear to me if thats a good thing for that tackler (he went and got the guy) or if he’s the one who blew his assignment.

by greysquirrel on Jun 3, 2011 9:53 AM EDT reply actions

This article begs the opinion of "Did we really help our run defense in the draft?

My first response would be, it depends on the maturation of Torell Troup, Alex Carrington, Arthur Moats and Danny Batten.

YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde

by VanScottM on Jun 3, 2011 9:56 AM EDT reply actions

Dareus for Stroud Helps

by greysquirrel on Jun 3, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

If you read the FO, you’ll see that Stroud actually graded pretty well in this metric. Which leads me to believe he just was completely driven out of way too many plays.

Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford

by Brian Galliford on Jun 3, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions

That was my conclusion as well. When your safeties and linebackers look bad in this metric, but your DE that got cut looks ‘alright’ it leads me to believe its missing something. If Whitner is gonna get 90+ run plays (twice his peers who graded poorly) those runners are flying by someone somewhere.

by greysquirrel on Jun 3, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions

according to this metric, he was OK. should be better, though – he’s basically a DT (does anyone believe that he really was as fast and quick as a DE last year?), so if he gets a hand on the ballcarrier, the guy should go down – not only get the guy barely 70% of the time. DTs were in the mid-80s for the most part.

check out my music! http://prophetikmusic.net

Steve Tasker: A website called Buffalo Ramble has dubbed Kyle Johnson "Meatbasket."
Gus Johnson: WWWEOEWWWOOOOOOGGGHOOOWWWW. College Basketball, HA HA.
-Kurupt

yipi yapa llari llara yara bing bong my name is Dnkey Kong - abayarde

by the_prophet on Jun 3, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

I left Dareus out on purpose

of course your right, I was just focusing on last years draft and the fact that we really need more than Dareus to upgrade this run defense. I also omitted Dave Wannestedt whom I believe was brought in for this purpose as well.

YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde

by VanScottM on Jun 3, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Wannstedt Marching Orders

FIX IT!

by greysquirrel on Jun 3, 2011 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions

FIX IT!

Simple, direct, and on point. Love it.

Year two is upon us.

by Buffalo for Eternity on Jun 3, 2011 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Big Daddy Drew said it best...

"From a statistical standpoint, it’s a brilliant move and typical of the Pats to follow my numerical models, which are always accurate unless tricked by Fate. And if the Pats don’t win seven straight Super Bowls, it’s because another team got lucky and their titles should be discounted. In summation: I f******g love the Patriots, and so does math.

-Schatz "

by cjf4 on Jun 3, 2011 10:21 AM EDT reply actions

Nit-Picking

Another reason I’m not on board with FO’s rating system…

Tampa Bay had a bad run defense giving up almost 140 yards per game yet they have no one on the worst run defenders list but have 2 players on the best list…

I’ll stick to I’m over saturated with stats…

-- Johnny Bench

by Goose22 on Jun 3, 2011 10:50 AM EDT reply actions

Poz had 150 plus takles

and only played 14 games, and you are telling me he is the third worst?
I contend that he was one of the only Bills able to chase the play down and make the tackle, whereas those ppl that were either blocked or blown by don’t show up on this list. I will admit Poz needs to make some TFLs but I think he needs a better cast to help him accomplish this, also I think he is more suited for the OLB position than ILB…b/c he is faster than our current OLB/DE who shall remain nameless.

by Dingus Day on Jun 3, 2011 12:16 PM EDT reply actions

Posluszny or whitner?

I don’t think the Bills can afford to let go of starters at inside linebacker and strong safety. More importantly I don’t think we can give up Posluszny because depth seems to be more of an issue up front 7. Plus, pos has more upside in my opinion. And for the record I think pos’ nickname should be “puss” like from the sopranos; he’s a big boy, but he gets hurt(which he always comes back from quickly), but in the end he might get thrown off the boat.

http://thesoiledthoughtsofanaspiringsuperintendent.wordpress.com/

by rockybillboa on Jun 3, 2011 1:30 PM EDT reply actions

Hmmm

It’s a stat that measures defense and scheme more than individuals – I think the team’s aggregate (or aggregate by position) would be more useful. Especially for LBs: the leaders tend to be blitzers like Ware and Harrison who either may a play in the backfield, or miss it, but rarely play to cover. Or you might get three Steelers on the top list, because their line opens the lanes and gets the first hit, and the LBs can pick up assists.

DL on the other hand, is probably fairly accurate – a DE makes a tackle downfield if he was blown off his block and recovered, right? And I have no idea how to interpret the DB data. The leaders are clearly great players – Woodson, Polamalu, Wilson – what exactly are they doing to end up in the backfield so often on running plays?

by silvermike on Jun 4, 2011 9:48 AM EDT reply actions