What the Evans trade rumor tells us

Over the last two days, the hot topic has been Evans potential move from the Bills... Many are for the idea and many are against. I for one was against the idea. The rest of the article is under the assumption that the rumors have some truth to it.

I felt it was short-sighted to see Evans numbers from the last two years and say he is on the decline... The first year the numbers declined because TO was the alpha receiver in the team whether he kept his mouth shut or not. TO was obviously a better route runner with still having speed as he showed last year at Cincinnati.

Last year, every team knew Evans was the only reputed WR that we had in our team and focused mostly on him. That took the attention away from the likes of johnson and parrish and allowed them to develop. A key thing to note is even with the decline his average per reception last two years is around 15.7 yds/ catch! And he had a healthy number of TDs as well... That doesnt sound like he is losing a step or something...

So I felt this year his numbers are bound to jump back as teams will have to split their focus atleast between Evans and Johnson. Add the fact that Gailey is working on making Evans a complete receiver, it sounded like a season to look forward to.

But then this paragraph in Sal's article,

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20110810/SPORTS03/108100334/Buffalo-Bills-coaches-want-more-diversity-Lee-Evans-game?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Bills

caught my attention.

On the flip side, coach Chan Gailey said that Evans needs to diversify his game. He has always been known as a home run hitter, but Fitzpatrick doesn't have the great arm like Losman or Drew Bledsoe, and the deep pass is not his forte, so Evans needs to find ways to excel on other routes.

What I had forgotten was Fitz doesnt have the arm of Losman or Bledsoe. He struggles to make those deep passes. So every time even if Evans is open on a deep ball, its hit or miss if Fitz will make it. Now Gailey is trying to make Evans a better route runner so Fitz will be able to utilize him. What is the point of that when we have other receivers who can already do that better? We cant properly use Evan's strengths and we want Evan's to fix his weakness?

What the rumor also tells us is Gailey is invested in Fitz. He wants to build the offense around Fitz. Fitz's strengths are standing under pressure, good sense of reading defense, making quick decisions and spreading the ball. For what you say about his accuracy, he is pretty accurate in short to intermediate passes. That's why Gailey is moving to pistol spread offense. Lot of receivers who run good routes. Fitz always goes to the open man, releases quick and moves the chain.

Fitz weakness is his arm strength. Defenses probably already know that. They already know Buffalo cannot stretch the field consistently even if they want to. Evans will become just a man on the field if he doesnt develop route running skills thus hindering the chain moving machine Gailey wants to build. Also add the fact that Bills Oline is really poor, Fitz might be forced to go to quick pass offense. This again doesnt let the deep routes for Evans to develop. Sidenote: Maybe not focusing on the Oline was intentional by the FO... anyway...

You might say, why trade Evans just because an interim-QB (Fitz) is not capable to throw to him. Why not keep Evans for our next QB. Lee is 30 this year. Say Fitz is just average and we draft a new QB next year. Fitz will still be a QB next year and the new QB will start only in 2013. Lee will be 32 or 33 by the time the new QB starts playing good. What's the point of having an old deep threat receiver now when he might lose his speed by the time our new QB is up and running.

That's why trading Evans NOW is the best time. Fitz cant use him, and he will be too old for our new QB. Atleast we will get a 5th round pick for a guy who doesnt know to run routes.

Addendum:

The other sticking point is the compensation. Market value would only give a 5th round for a former 1st round pick. You might say I rather keep him in the team than trade him for that. That's good if he develops as a route runner. If he doesnt, then the benefit of trading him is not the 5th round pick but intangibles. If the offense becomes lot more fluid the benefits are greater.