Contemplating A Bills Receiving Corps Sans Lee Evans
by Brian Galliford on Aug 12, 2011 10:13 AM EDT
in Buffalo Bills Opinion
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PrintWith Buffalo Bills wide receiver Lee Evans reportedly on the trade block - and expected to be moved sometime this weekend - it's time to look at the team's receiving corps in a world without Evans. Despite our citing this position as the team's deepest and most talented, this is still a very green and unproven group, folks.
Receiver No. 1: Stevie Johnson. If (can we say "when" yet?) Buffalo moves Evans, there will be an extraordinary amount of pressure on Johnson to produce as the team's top receiver - not just because he's capable of doing so, but because he's going to get a ton of attention from opposing secondaries.
You're aware by now that Johnson put up Pro Bowl-worthy numbers in 2010, hauling in 82 passes for 1,073 yards and 10 touchdowns. Beyond Johnson, no Bills receiver (aside from Evans, of course) has recorded more than 35 receptions in a season (Roscoe Parrish), 400 yards (Parrish) and three touchdowns (David Nelson). Only Parrish and Buster Davis, the newest Bills receiver and a former first-round draft pick of GM Buddy Nix in San Diego, have more than one year of experience in the league.
So, yeah. Until one of those other guys becomes a force, of course teams are going to double Johnson. We don't even know if he's ready to handle it yet, even as he's dominating training camp practices and drawing comparisons to Eric Moulds.
Receiver No. 2: Roscoe Parrish. In our view, Parrish would be the starting receiver opposite Johnson. Early in 2010, when Johnson was struggling with his consistency, Parrish became a starter opposite Evans. Given that head coach Chan Gailey still has big plans for Parrish as a receiver, it stands to reason that Parrish would be the starter of choice if Evans departs.
In just eight games last season, Parrish looked like an entirely different player, and was well on his way to a career season with 33 catches, 400 yards and two scores in just a half-season's worth of playing time. If Evans leaves, Parrish stands to gain the most statistically - if he can stay healthy, of course.
Receiver No. 3: David Nelson. I know there is some rhetoric that Nelson has as much upside as any receiver on this team. While that may be true, it's also true that in the short-term, Nelson will still be a much more effective matchup from the slot - which complicates issues with the second and third receivers, as both are better in the slot. Nelson (31 catches, 353 yards, three touchdowns) was productive as a rookie, and he, too, would stand to see more looks from Ryan Fitzpatrick, particularly as a possession receiver.
Receiver No. 4: Donald Jones. Jones was a lock to make the team before this Evans trade talk heated up; now he's something more than a certainty to make the team. Again, Jones is a player that works better in the slot than outside, but he's unique to this group in that he provides a degree of physicality to his game that none of the other receivers possess. Jones, pound for pound, is one of the toughest and most physical players on this football team, and Gailey will find ways to utilize that asset.
The Wild Cards: Naaman Roosevelt, Buster Davis, Marcus Easley. Surprise! Roosevelt and Davis are better working out of the slot, as well, though Roosevelt was able to make some plays as an undrafted rookie free agent on the edge, and Davis certainly has the raw talent to play out there, as well. Easley, however, is the true wild card here, as he has loads of talent and, aside from Johnson, may be the only other true edge receiver the team employs.
I know Nix has said that he loves his receiving corps and the talent within it, and that's justified. Make no mistake, however, that if Evans is traded, the Bills will have a lot to figure out - not just in terms of dividing up touches between a bunch of "goon squad" members (as they call themselves), but in terms of scheming the game to keep their only proven receiver, Johnson, free of too much attention. This would be a gamble, but if the Bills are gambling, this is probably the positional group to do it with.
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Pre-Season
I would wait one or two pre-season games to see if Easley and Davis can stay healthy and be productive. I don’t think a couple weeks will devalue Lee, especially if someone loses a big time WR within that time frame. I’m holding out for a 3rd round pick as of now, anything lower than that and I am passing. That is whether Easley and Davis could be productive or not. 4th round just seems too low.
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Would you be satisfied with a player that was drafted in the 3rd round?
If not than what would the difference be. I ask only because we picked up a few players last season, Urbik, Rhinehardt and Wrotto that were drafted in the 3rd, 3rd and 4th round when they were drafted. I believe two of the three were signed from practice squads with the other from the waiver wire.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
Possibly
When you start talking players it becomes about performance and cost. The draft is about potential and need. So a 6th round pick who has played well could be worth more than a 1st round pick like Maybin.
Yes. Tom Brady is far more valuable than Aaron Maybin.
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
by TheAfghanTwilight on Aug 12, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
When I start talking players, I assume we are all on the same page with the original question.
Assuming is the difficult part, because then it boils down to the GM and Coaching opinion Vs Us the fan. I am assuming that Urbik, Rhinehardt and Wrotto brought value to this team from others practice Squads and waiver wire. So far those players have allowed us to move Wood to Center and provide an option at Tackle if injury occurs to Bell or Pears.
In this case, if we trade Lee Evans for a player whom may have been drafted in the 3rd round Vs a draft pick in the 3rd round we still would have similiar choice as far as performance and cost, so what is the real difference between a player being drafted in the third round and a draft pick in the third round, other than Our opinion Vs the Coaches Opinion of that player. Same can be said with the draft.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
I agree 100%
I agree with this 100%. Our receiving corp looks very deep with Lee and Stevie as the starters. When you take Lee out and look at the list above, it starts to get a little concerning. While I truly believe there is some tremendous potential we are a little bit of unrealized potential away from having a problem at receiver. If teams can continue to double-up on Stevie all year b/c there is no major threat form the rest of the receiving corp then we have problems. With Lee in the lineup you don’t have that concern and if these players actual realize that potentical we become even more formidable in our 3, 4 and 5 wide sets.
It would be nice to see some game action of Easley, Davis etc… before we pull the trigger on this move.
The Biggest positive from a Lee Trade
Would be being able to see what we have in Stevie and some of our other recievers, especially before Stevie’s contract is up. This gives the FO good insight wether he should be paid like a #1 or not.
I dont think Lee was ever in the long term building plans for this team. So by getting rid of him now, they can give him a chance to play somewhere else where he could win instantly and also give the FO the ability to actually see what our WR has, needs, and what can be done to upgrade it.
Totally agree
Let Lee play somewhere else especially if we can get good compensation. Don’t let it turn to the situation that happend to Moulds. Value is value. Plus Lee deserves a shot with a contender if the Bills don’t have him in their future plans.
by DubyaeffNYC on Aug 12, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Problem is, if Stevie doesn’t pan out as a #1, and nelson, Parrish, jones, etc cannot pick up the slack enough to draw attention away from Stevie, then we are in the market for a #1 receiver, or a 1a as it were and we got a marginal return for a highly talented guy in Evans who we would then probably over-pay to replace, all the while wasting a season where if we keep Lee, we could have a legit offense this season. Sort of rambled there, sorry…
"Starting today, the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup" - Terry Pegula
by willgarr15 on Aug 12, 2011 12:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
good time to do it
i think this is a good time to make a move of this stature, since players are vying so hard for the few positions available. this should make them all stand up and see their chance and make for a great pre-season (well, as great as a pre-season can be). I for one see this opportunity as a good one.
Hi, I'm Jim Kelly for the Mancuso Family of Dealerships.
Still think it's a bad idea
I’ve been vocal in my opposition, and this piece from Brian hasn’t changed my mind. We have four or five slot receivers and Johnson…no one is going to scare defenses, and no one is going to spread the defense thin like Evans is able to. I have a bad feeling about this.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Bad feeling how?
They go 4-12 again? I hate to be cynical here, but pepole are acting like this is a devastating blow to the Bills Super Bowl hopes.
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
No they aren’t. They are acting like this is a devastating blow to the Bills ability to be successful on the offensive side of the ball. And they are absolutely right. Lee is our best deep threat and if we don’t have the ability to go over the top then we are gonna have a lot of trouble moving the ball consistently.
by The Adam Bomb on Aug 12, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
When you play a spread like The Bills will do
That Deep threat isn’t as important as you think.
The crossing patterns and 7 yard hooks and such really become the focus, lul them to sleep with short intermediate routes, and then hammer home the homerun.
Dont get me wrong if Lee is moved he will be missed!!! To an extent that we won’t know.
But his ability to hurt teams over the top won’t be the reason.
"Big Gulps Eh, Well See ya later" - Lloyd Christmas
" You Gus ready To Let The Dogs Out" "What?" " you Know, Who Let the dogs out rough rough rogh rough" - Zack Galifinakis - The Hangover
by PaullyPforPrez on Aug 12, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree a ton.
Stevie, Roscoe, Jones and Easley (maybe?) still all have ability to stretch the field and Roosevelt and Nelson can still do the 20-25 yard seem routes. It’s a loss, no doubt about it, but may as well try something.
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
“The crossing patterns and 7 yard hooks and such really become the focus, lul them to sleep with short intermediate routes, and then hammer home the homerun.”
You can’t do that successfully if the safeties are cheating up all the time because they have no fear of being burned deep.
It’s all about tricking defenses. You can’t pass effectively if the defense knows you can’t run the ball. You can run the ball effectively if the defense knows you can’t get the ball deep. We’ve all seen defenses game plan for Buffalo for over a decade now. They knew our QB(s) totally sucked so they stacked the box and made it impossible for us to run. Then they get us into third and long situations with zero pass blocking and a lousy QB and eat us for breakfast.
The only way to truly beat a defense is to get them thinking “If I do this then they will burn me with that.” If you don’t have the ability to “burn them with that” then they’ll get the best of you every time.
by The Adam Bomb on Aug 12, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Davis, Johnson, and Roscoe are all at least threats to go deep. Jones and Easley may be able to contribute there as well
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
We THINK this is the case. With Lee, we KNOW it’s the case. That’s why losing him now would be bad. Once your statement is confirmed to be true, then it will be ok to let Lee go and these guys take over.
by The Adam Bomb on Aug 12, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
rec
"Starting today, the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup" - Terry Pegula
by willgarr15 on Aug 12, 2011 12:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Daviss career
Davis has a total of 51 receptions in his career (4 years). I know he has been hurt a few times. This doesn’t strike as someone who would strike fear in a defense or someone who you can count on to go deep.
Once you catch a safety cheating
Regardless of the personnel on the field you have won the battle.
If you can convince a teams safety to play in the box you have opened up their entire defense.
They are called safeties for a reason. it doesn’t matter if it’s Lee Evans or Zach Pinalto running the route without safety help over the top a defender has a lot less of chance making a play on a well thrown ball.
"Big Gulps Eh, Well See ya later" - Lloyd Christmas
" You Gus ready To Let The Dogs Out" "What?" " you Know, Who Let the dogs out rough rough rogh rough" - Zack Galifinakis - The Hangover
by PaullyPforPrez on Aug 12, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Not true. They’ll continue to cheat until you can beat them at it. I don’t think we have anyone on the roster who will consistently beat cheating safeties over the top. At least, not yet.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Spot on.....
You gotta have a burner. I would say if Chan says trade Lee cause our young guys are so good, then good! I really think Cahn knows what he’s doing….
If the trade is not coming from chan…….oh no.
On a related matter…I think the one player who will always be with Brad Smith is Spiller. let’s see a defense key on either one….the other will get the ball….nice, simple and effective.
Gobills
PodunkO - The great post ender!
by podunkowego on Aug 12, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
They’re potentially losing one of their key players. It’s hard to build a good team when you keep getting rid of your building blocks. I was never a huge Jason Peters fan, but if they had kept him, they wouldn’t have so much work to do on the O-Line. In order to build a team you need to keep your good players. It’s not about the Super Bowl, it’s about moving forward. In my opinion, trading Evans would be more of the Bills organization spinning its wheels.
I agree to an extent, but unlike when they let Peters go, they have a stable of potential replacements. Although I agree its no where near Lee’s stature or current skill set, it could be a surprise.
Bottom line is someone would have to step up and not make this a complete sour grape situation for fans.
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
a warm body does not a replacement make.
our “deep” receiving corps is, at the end of the day, odds and ends, maybe a diamond in the rough if we’re lucky.
I had a drink the other day
Opinions were like kittens
I was giving them away
-Modest Mouse
by oompaloompa on Aug 12, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
For the record
I’m not 100% on board with trading him, just 100% convinced that it also doesn’t doom the 2011 season.
We also have NO clue what the return would be. I’d rather it be an actual player, but doubt that will happen.
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. I just feel that we may be overvaluing our WR depth. We expected nothing out of our depth last year, and they stepped up and showed glimmers of talent. I think we overreacted to that. Now we’re taking these guys who made a handful of catches last year and are still relatively unproven and expecting them to carry a starting job. The NFL has seen plenty of players who looked good for a few games one season and then fizzled out.
My argument is that we’re probably overreacting to the loss of Lee as well. I think relying on Roscoe (injuries), Nelson (young and unproven), Easley (injuries, young and unproven) is risky, but teams have let important players walk out the door before.
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I may be overreacting slightly, but it just seems to me that while teams have let important players walk, they usually have a back-up plan all set. I’m concerned that our back-up plan is very raw and unproven. I agree that we have huge potential in some of our guys, but I would rather separate the wheat from the chaff while they’re our back-ups rather than our starters.
Not 100% fair comparison
But when the Steelers got rid of Santonio Holmes for Mike Wallace (young and somewhat unproven)?
It’s not fair to compare the Bills and Steelers as organizations, but Whaley and Nix are both from teams that have had successful track records. I’m willing to be naive and think it’s part of a plan.
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s a decent comparison. My response would be that it wasn’t as risky a move for the Steelers as they had a proven QB, strong running game, and a good defense. They took a gamble at WR, but the rest of the team was strong enough that it could mitigate any struggles at WR.
We don’t have the all-around solid team that Pittsburgh does. We will likely need a strong passing game to make up for other weaknesses. It just seems like we’re gambling without much to gain.
agreed
That’s why I knew it wasn’t a completely fair comparison, but this really, really isn’t the end of the world.
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
You are right about that. It’s not the end of the world. Lombardi ain’t comin to Buffalo this year.
My main point is that the timing is wrong. I fully expected Evans to get traded next season with a year left on his contract. Trading him now hurts our offense now.
by The Adam Bomb on Aug 12, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
@ Wild_Bills
Lee is not a building block. He’s 30. By the time the Bills are at a level where they are ready to consistently challenge for a Super Bowl there should be young guys good enough to replace him anyway. Not that I’m trying to push the guy out of the door, but they have talent there that has shown an ability to produce at the NFL level.
I don’t agree with Brian that Jones is better in the slot. I think Jones reminds me more of Moulds than Stevie does based on his physicality and speed. Evans is a burner, true enough, but WR’s can get deep with great routes and an array of moves. That being said, Stevie, Jones and Davis are far from slow and can get deep when it’s called for.
I disagree
I don’t remember what his contract is, but he’s probably got 3 years left in him. I would like to think we’ll be competing before that time is over. While Lee may not be around 10 years, he is a great guy and is the kind of person we need mentoring and leading the younger receivers. He can help the younger receivers develop in addition to his own production.
Good players make the players around them better. Offensive performance is incredible interwoven and players don’t play in a vaccuum. Lee drew a lot of attention last year which opened doors for Johnson and allowed him to show what he could do. It’s possible that if Lee hadn’t drawn that attention, Johnson wouldn’t have done so well and we could be conceivably looking to move past him without realizing the talent he had. I realize this is highly subjective, but in the same way that you can’t fairly evaluate a QB when he has a bad O-Line that leaves him on his back all the time, having poor receivers makes it harder to develop and evaluate other parts of the offense.
If we’re considering players 30 and older as unimportant to the development of this team, we should also look at trading Barnett, Edwards, Florence, Jackson, and Wilson, among others. While these guys may not be around in 10 years, they all play a role in developing the team as a whole.
You mentioned that they have talent that can produce at the NFL level. Who is that talent? Parrish is good in the slot but hasn’t shown that he can be effective on the outside. Nelson, Jones, and Roosevelt were good in limited action last year, but I don’t think we can consider them as proven yet. A lot of players have looked good over a few games and then disappeared. Our WRs have a load of potential, but they are very raw and unproven.
4-12 (or worse) would result in empty seats at the Ralph, and probably get both Nix and Gailey fired. Is that a good thing?
They have more than this year to prove themselves or else they DEFINITELY would keep Lee. This is a long term plan. Lee wasn’t going to be here past 2012 and the Bills would have to have a lot go right to make the playoffs before then.
I’m not acting like this doesn’t impact the offense and team as a whole, but I still believe this is all about a long term plan.
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
It all depends on HOW they win and lose those games. I think the only way we see Nix and Gailey fired is if a healthy Bills team is uncompetitive and shows no major improvements over last year. They drafted defense this year so they can draft offense next year allowing both sides to peak together for a very solid team. I think we get at least one more season out of this front office regardless of record.
Agree. Nix and Gailey will have to sink to DJ level mind numbing losses to get canned. As long as they keep it lively and look like they are making progress, Ralph aint firing them. Maybe Whaley replaces Nix is about all the change we can expect in the next few years.
I had a drink the other day
Opinions were like kittens
I was giving them away
-Modest Mouse
by oompaloompa on Aug 12, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
When you are rebuilding its all moral victories until you are rebuilt. Are we rebuilt?
by greysquirrel on Aug 12, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
At some point I'd like to see the team get better.
Although Lee might not be the top of the league in Buffalo, he is still one of the teams best players. The team was 4-12 last year becasue they didn’t have enough talent. If Lee gets traded, buffalo has one fewer good player and that much further from being a playoff team. Of course this is just my opinion.
I agree. Brian’s break-down just reinforces that while we have depth at the position, we don’t have solid, proving starting talent on the outside. As you said, we just don’t have deep speed to stretch the defense. Roscoe is fast but has never been as good a deep threat as Evans. Davis is fast but he has yet to prove himself. Without that deep threat, teams are more comfortable playing aggressive coverage and/or playing safeties in the box which makes things harder on everyone else on offense.
They could always convert Spiller into a WR.
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
by TheAfghanTwilight on Aug 12, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Stevie wants Lee to stay more than anyone because he knows Lee can stretch the field and get a lot of catches and take a safety with him if he goes deep which would help out Stevie, now without Lee, Stevie is going to be blanketed on EVERY PLAY
I think there is a lot of hope that Steve turns out to be a Jerry Rice type player – not elite athleticism, but elite work ethic, route running and hands. At least one of those things is suspect.
I had a drink the other day
Opinions were like kittens
I was giving them away
-Modest Mouse
by oompaloompa on Aug 12, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
easy on the JR
Jerry Rice is considered by far the best receiver ever and best player by some.
I don’t want people to start expecting too much from him just yet.
There is nothing worse than exaggeration!- Me
We all say, GO BILLS and I've always wondered, where do we want them to go? I guess to the Super Bowl! -Me
by 78sackdance on Aug 12, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Jerry Rice is one of the greatest players to ever step on an NFL field. That’s for sure. I have a hard time deciding between Jim Brown and Rice, but it’s between those two, for my tastes.
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
by TheAfghanTwilight on Aug 12, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m not trying to put pressure on the situation like that – that’s why I said JR- TYPE. Rice was amazing – his performance speaks for itself – but when you realize he wasn’t gifted with elite speed or size, it makes his achievements that much more amazing. I think every guy who wasn’t the fastest kid on the block has fantasies of making up for gifts with those aspects of the game we can control – like intelligence, precision, concentration, etc. JR is the standard on this… Steve does not have elite gifts – that means we pin our hopes on those other aspects of his game for his edge.
Also, it helped JR that he played with some GREAT QBs. That’s one thing not going Steves way already.
I had a drink the other day
Opinions were like kittens
I was giving them away
-Modest Mouse
by oompaloompa on Aug 12, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Larry Fitzgerald is closer to Rice-type comparisons than Stevie Johnson.
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
by TheAfghanTwilight on Aug 12, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
In terms of someone who might be able to make a run at Rice’s records I would agree – but I meant the comparison in a more generic way. Hey, again – not trying to draw a direct comparison – I know that these kinds of comparisons are ultimately pretty dumb.
I had a drink the other day
Opinions were like kittens
I was giving them away
-Modest Mouse
@ Oompaloompa
You raise a good comparison. But lets not kid ourselves. There is timed speed and game speed. Rice was fast when it mattered: on the field. And for all of our talk about speed, none of these guys are slow or they wouldn’t be able to play at the NFL level. Stevie and Fitz have a great chemistry, that’s obvious. And a good thing the Bills do have going for them.
The chemistry between Fitz and Steve is definitely there. And he does seem to play game fast – I think part of that is a function of his great route running which allows him to get open, be where he needs to be, and beat defenders.
Now the hands… fix that (question of concentration?) and he should be good to go and keep it up.
I had a drink the other day
Opinions were like kittens
I was giving them away
-Modest Mouse
He’s got a lot of work to do on his hands…
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Yup.
I had a drink the other day
Opinions were like kittens
I was giving them away
-Modest Mouse
by oompaloompa on Aug 12, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s never going to be a move that makes your WR corp better today. But it might be a better wideout corp in 2012-2013 if you develop one of these other guys. They may never be equal to Evans at his best, but there’s a decent chance they are his equal or better to Evans at 32-33 (or Evans someplace else).
Why is Jones/Nelson necessarily better in the slot? Speed? I know thats where they’ve gotten the most work, but thats also a product of the talent they were behind. Just curious what the qualities are that limit them.
Way Too Much Pressure on Stevie
The guy didn’t even start every game last season. Now they are getting rid of Lee and using him as the main guy in a division with Revis twice a year and McCourty twice a year? I think the opposite receiver could be Nelson since I think Roscoe is a much better slot option (smaller, quicker, better in open space etc.) but I think the real dark horse is Jones and Easley starting on the backside.
I thought the same thing at first, but given the plethora of other play makers, I want to wait and see first. If they can take quick drops, be creative and spread the ball around, Stevie should still get his chances. Time will tell, if this trade goes down we will know the true value of Lee Evans, for better or for worse.
But don’t we want the pressure to be on him before we give him a Santonio Holmes type deal? I think this move also allows Whaley and Nix another angle to evaluate the current talent on their roster?
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t neccessarily look at the no. 2 to need a similar skill set to Lee or typical no.2 skills. A possible reason as to want to move him is that Chan doesn’t need a “take the top of the defense off” type of receiver. They both seem to like physical/tough types that can flat out ball. Donald Jones come to mind. Given their affinity to the spread and the lack of experience and skill of the O-line, down the field burner types may not have a role on this team. I predict a committee type approach to fill Lees’ big shoes.
An additional wild card
Would have to consider that they are working on ways to get CJ Spiller more involved in the passing game. If Fred Jackson is still the primary ball carrier they need to get additional touches to Spiller. Trading Evans could be a move that pushes things in that direction, as Spiller has playmaking potential.
Big Wild Card
I think Spiller evolving into a hopeful Reggie Bush mold would be a huge help, albeit a stretch to rely on that at this point.
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Spiller needs to take the Reggie Bush mold and smash it. Reggie Bush isn’t what he should aspire to be, nor we as fans hope he becomes. Spiller should hope to become incomparable.
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
by TheAfghanTwilight on Aug 12, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
He should hope
My hope is that he becomes AT LEAST that.
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Awesome
Sig worthy!!
Ask me about a Cosby Sweater!
by brendar of the bills people on Aug 12, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Is it worth a Cosby sweater?
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
by TheAfghanTwilight on Aug 12, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Spiller should live up to his new number.
I bet Spiller chose #28 in honor of Marshall Faulk. THAT would be a career/player to emulate!
by ChuckBuffInFlo on Aug 12, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
the Bills will have a lot to figure out… …in terms of scheming the game to keep their only proven receiver, Johnson, free of too much attention.
It should be noted the Bills did an excellent job of this last year. In the 3 games without Evans, Steve averaged 5.3 catches for 66.3 yards. Over a season, that works out to 1061 yards on 85 catches, which is almost exactly what he had.
So the idea that Johnson’s going to have a much tougher time without Evans is a theory without much basis in fact.
Check out buddynixon.com for more of my work.
by cjf4 on Aug 12, 2011 10:34 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
The problem there, however, is that NFL scouting cycles work in four-week windows. Quality control coordinators move backwards four weeks to get as much play-calling and tendency information as they can. All they need to do is look at that three-game span you reference, plus a game or two this year, to figure out how to stop it – unless someone steps up. It’s absolutely a legitimate concern that Johnson’s production could drop from 5.3/66.3 when teams catch up.
Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford
by Brian Galliford on Aug 12, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
But isn’t at least a legitimate option that someone steps up?
I also still think this is a good opportunity to really evaluate Johnson’s game changing abilities. Great WRs make plays almost regardless of coverage and scheme.
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Johnson’s production could drop from 5.3/66.3 when teams catch up.
I was expecting his production to drop with/without Evans because opposing teams won’t be surprised by his ability as they were last year. They will better account for him regardless. I will say no Evans makes that job easier unless, as you say, someone else “step’s up” and becomes this year’s surprise.
I still think if they can get adequate value for Evans, it’s a reasonable move. The team’s not going anywhere and the move conforms with either the “build through the draft” plan or provides immediate help at a thinner position- depending, of course, on what the compensation is.
Y'all- There's a "D" in rebuild, but no "O"- The gospel according to Buddy Nix 4:12
I’m not saying its not legitimate, I’m saying what actually happened alleviates the concern a bit. But I’m not sure I agree it takes 4 weeks how to figure out how to double a #1 receiver.
All they need to do is look at that three-game span you reference, plus a game or two this year, to figure out how to stop it – unless someone steps up.
In those games, guys like Nelson, Donald Jones, and Naaman did step up in a big way.
Check out buddynixon.com for more of my work.
It alleviates the concern, sure, but it doesn’t totally remove it, either. As I say, things will only get tougher for Johnson, particularly if Gailey struggles to find rhythm in his passing game – a distinct possibility with the O-Line changes and Evans out of the picture.
I didn’t say it takes four weeks to figure out how to double a receiver. I said teams work in four-week cycles to make sure they get as many of a team’s offensive wrinkles down (and practiced against). That’s the purpose of the quality control coordinator.
Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford
by Brian Galliford on Aug 12, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't like the idea of a trade at all
But if it does happen, I would want a player(s) in return rather than a draft pick(s). I think they are more likely to get fair compensation from a player for player deal, even though player for draft picks seem to be much more common.
by tpsabres on Aug 12, 2011 10:41 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
This is a good article to think long term about.
My first thought is that we can forget about who is the #1 or #2 guy. We can forget about last years stats with Stevie knocking on an all pro season. This offense that Gailey is going to throw at opponents could very well produce a different game ball to a different player every game. Gailey wants to run a spread offense, and with this offense what can we expect, Stevie catching 5 – 9 passes a game. I can’t see it. The one thing that I love about Fitzpatrick is the fact that he is willing to spread the ball around. When a QB can hit 5 to 6 different receivers a game without the RB’s this tells me that we are ready to open up this offense. What we need is very capable group of route running WR’s that can play anywhere on the line. They need to be able to know the route tree for multiple spots. Remember our knock has been we have been to predictable in the past. The key is still going to be Fitz knowing what and where he is going with the ball. The next thing will be if he has the time to go through progressions if needed. This group of WR’s will allow him to spread the ball around and keep the defense guessing. Still as Brian mentions that these guys are still young and will need to learn as we go. Still if we do lose Evans which will be a sad day, things will only open up for the entire receiving corp not just for Johnson to step up, it will take all of them and Fitz to spread the ball around.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
As critical as i've been about Evans being used solely as a decoy
if/when he leaves the team, they’re going to suffer a major setback. I really don’t approve of removing veteran 1st-round talent that isn’t a liability on the field. Evans may not look like a huge contributor on gameday many times, but I have a very bad feeling about what’s about to happen. As awesome as Parrish is, I don’t see him as a traditional receiver who can grind it out full-time week after week. I think he’s an injury away from IR. I hope i’m proved wrong, but he is small. He gives me pause wondering if I, too, could have played NFL ball.
Nelson is a very promising player, but let’s not kid ourselves into thinking he’s going to make Lee Evans expendable. He’ll rarely draw the type of attention Lee garnered, in my opinion.
I don’t understand why a guy like Chris Kelsay can stick for so long, and a guy like Evans seems expendable. I thought they wanted talent, regardless of numbers at a given position?
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
by TheAfghanTwilight on Aug 12, 2011 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree about Parrish. I don’t trust his ability to stay healthy, either. That leaves Johnson and Nelson, and at time Jones, as the playmaking WRs from last year. No, I don’t like this at all…
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
I think you and I are drumming Genesis’ Land of Confusion to an audience looking for Peter Gabriel.
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
by TheAfghanTwilight on Aug 12, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Not Keen on Trade
I’m usually reluctant to take refuge with authority or consensus but I have to say that, IMHO, Brian has been 100% spot on with respect to the Evans trade from the start – well, except for the part about it actually being a possibility. But it probably shouldn’t be.
It’s unclear that the Bills would get comparable value for Evans and it could have the effect of paralyzing our untested receiving corps. We already have serious question marks along the offensive line and Fitz’s numbers when pressured are not encouraging. Now imagine this scenario with Stevie Johnson being double-teamed.
Very keen on our young receiving corps. Not too keen on this trade, though – especially if it’s for a mid-round pick. And it should be said that Lee Evans has been a team player throughout his tenure in Buffalo. Really like the guy and will miss him if he goes.
Check the “expected to be moved” link.
by Xaviermw on Aug 12, 2011 11:10 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Evans
Look guys, you’re overthinking this and you sound ridiculous. Overall, what difference is Lee Evans going to make on team? We’ll go 6-10 instead of 4-12? Will he really singlehandedly result in more wins? Get real, we’d have to be incredibly lucky to even make the play-offs. If we have a chance to load up on young talent with lots of picks (like the PATS do every year anyone?) then you do it.
Evans is a legit starter in this leaue – 4th or 5th rd picks usually aren’t – the value isn’t there… If they move him for another player that fills a need (OT) then that makes more sense.
by JustAskTheAxis on Aug 12, 2011 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
For the record
we still have no clue what they will actually trade him for. A 3rd is what they are supposedly asking and you could use that second 3rd round pick and package to move back up into the 1st round or 2nd round and have a second pick in either of those two rounds.
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Stevie is a 5th rounder
Anybody who gets drafted can be a legit starter….Top 2 rounds are usually superstars.
yes they were all billed as superstar potential
didnt pan out, but thats why they were drafted so high. Nobody would draft someone they didnt think could start for them.
Stevie was a 7th – and of course, anyone can become a starter, but there is a direct correlation between your draft slot and whether or not you’re a starter – good players in college generally get drafted high and play in the NFL – always exceptions, but that doesn’t mean you trade a guy who has shown he can get it done at the NFL level for a 4th or 5th at best in the hopes that the pick develops a few years down the road into something big – bad ROI.
by JustAskTheAxis on Aug 12, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Evans - cont
plus, if your plan is to be competitive in 2-3 years (which realistically is the case here) then how is an aging receiver going to contribute there? In two more years the bills will have to spend to a cap floor. If you’ve spent those two years stockpiling talent, then you’ll know what needs will have to be addressed with FA’s on that year. This plan is far better served by trading the players who will not be contributing then. Plus lets be honest….WR’s are one of the easiest positions to address via the draft OR the FA market. This is why even the best of them are dealt for mid-round picks, they just aren’t as hard to find as other positions.
This is a ludicrous argument, and it can be made about any player on the field. Draft picks are not better than proven talent, especially mid to late round draft picks. I understand the sentiment about stacking draft picks, but trading away proven talent that is also a locker room leader and a captain is not the best way to go about it. Plus you have to look at what Evans is leaving behind. Sure, maybe one or two of the young guys steps up and produces, but what are the chances they reach Lee’s ceiling? It’s a lot more complicated than you’re making it sound.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
by stetzwebs on Aug 12, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
Stacking draft picks is a luxury when you have a solid core in place to build around – we do not have that – we have a suspect QB, a developing O-Line with some holes, and a defense that was atrocious last season (hopefully we’ve fixed enough of it to be competitive this season)… You don’t trade proven talent for draft picks
by JustAskTheAxis on Aug 12, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
What are the chances Lee reaches his ceiling? I don’t think he’s done, but a draft pick + a developing young guy is better than nothing in 2 years. Saying Lee is a starter values him NOW. But we need to balance that with the future. I don’t know what fair is. But it doesnt have to be a current starter.
by greysquirrel on Aug 12, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
At 30, this is his ceiling – athletes primes are usually between 26 or 27 and 30 or 31 where they can blend the knowledge and experience in the game with their superior physical traits – Lee has maybe one or two years where he is physically at the top of his game before he declines in that respect.
by JustAskTheAxis on Aug 12, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Then trade him in a year when we are more sure that the WR corps is going to be able to pick up the slack. I really don’t like the gamble.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Valid point
but at least this gives them this year to determine Johnson’s true value as a #1, no?
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps. Or it destroys his game.
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
by TheAfghanTwilight on Aug 12, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m mildly more optimistic than that :)
http://buffalopp.com
by buffalosportsfan on Aug 12, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
@stetz
What’s ludicrous about understanding that Evans won’t be around either way by the time Nix and Gailey plan to have this team competitive? What’s ludicrous is that anyone here thinks Evans will somehow put this team over “the edge” (whatever that is on a 4-12 team) Get the draft picks or a promising young player who will be here when the Bills need him. I understand being homers people, but try to look at this objectively. It’s time to rip the band-aid off and just do what it takes to improve the whole team. Also, you can’t point at draft picks that were taken by people we knew were failures as evidence that " player X was taken in round X therefore is not worth Lee Evans" You cannot build a team in free agency and stacking picks is not a luxury. Teams are built with the draft. FA signings are usually to address glaring needs and fine tune a roster. Again, if the plan is to have be competitive in 2-3 years, then the wisest course of action is to invest in your team accordingly.
by Parijp on Aug 12, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What’s ludicrous about understanding that Evans won’t be around either way by the time Nix and Gailey plan to have this team competitive?
Nothing, and I didn’t say it was.
anyone here thinks Evans will somehow put this team over "the edge"
I haven’t seen anyone say any such thing.
then the wisest course of action is to invest in your team accordingly.
Stockpiling 4th-7th round draft picks is not how to do this.
It’s time to rip the band-aid off and just do what it takes to improve the whole team.
We all understand that we need to do what it takes to improve the team. The argument comes in, is this what improves the team? A lot of us say no, at least not this year.
What I was calling ludicrous is the idea that you can quantify how many “wins” a player is worth. With very few exceptions, there are no single players in this league that create wins by themselves. The idea that we’ll be “a little worse off in 2011” because Evans leaves is a) not necessarily true, as the WR corps is unproven, and b) irrelevant. When we get rid of a playmaker, then we need to make sure we have someone to step in for him. We do not. You cannot point to a WR in our young group that can spread the field, scare defenses, and be the kind of captain and leader the offense needs. This is a gamble, with odd timing, and I think everyone is drastically overvaluing our extremely unproven WRs.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
errm
Somehow you’ve both managed to continue to argue with me, and at the same time validate everything I’ve said. I’m too lazy to point out the obvious inconsistencies. I’ll let other posters continue and check back in a few hours.
Hahaha, sure I did. Your argument was “How’s Evans going to help us in 2-3 years when we plan to be competitive”? I never mentioned anything about that. You also said “What’s he help us, win two more games?” That’s where I had the problem, given that his impact is not measurable in the win category as a receiver. We have no one on the roster that I believe will or can step in for him and produce like he can in the ways that he can. If you would like to point out to me where I validate any of your points, I’m listening, but I pretty much disagree with everything you said.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Evans is 30, not 35.
In the year two thousaaaaaaand.
In the year two thousAAAAAAND!
by TheAfghanTwilight on Aug 12, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
3rd round pick for Evans So drained being a Bills fan!
Free Lee Evans You can Have him for free! So a WR who can fly and catch the Ball for lets say a Terrel Troup sold W T F So Tired of this! Keep Lee Evans way to throw the towel in already Buddy! 3rd rounder you gave Lynch away for 3 must be your favorite number. Disgusted.
As much as I don’t want them to trade Evans, a tiny part of me hopes they do. If they don’t, I’ll have to face the fact that I’ve wasted days of my life stressing out and debating a silly Adam Schefter rumor. I just don’t know if I can handle that.
by Wild_Bills on Aug 12, 2011 11:23 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Don't like Evans trade, but if it happens watch David Nelson
It would be a mistake to trade Evans for a relatively low draft pick for all the reasons Brian mentions, but if the deal goes through I would keep a close eye on David Nelson. Having seen him outrun Leodis McKelvin at training camp last year I would suggest that he has more speed than most people realize. He is like a lot of tall guys in that his speed, which is based on long strides, is deceptive. He doesn’t look like he is moving that fast, but he is by comparison to the DB’s trying to cover him. He is an exceptionally intelligent route runner (“silky smooth” is the cliche Chris Brown keeps using), has excellent hands and focus, works incredibly hard, and has added weight and muscle since last season (when he was a bit on the skinny side). He is a first-rate slot receiver, as Brian keeps saying, but my guess is that Gailey will try him on edge routes if Evans is gone. And if that happens he could very well emerge as this year’s Stevie Johnson (who, let’s remember, was pegged as no more than a slot receiver until 2010).
by Macktruck on Aug 12, 2011 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I agree. As much as people may think his 2010 play came out of nowhere...
I think that David Nelson has the talent and ability to maintain and exceed that production. Nelson was a highly recruited guy coming out of high school….but for some reason, he just wasn’t completely involved in the offense in his time at Florida. Thus, his undrafted status. But don’t let that fool you….David Nelson has the athletic tools and work ethic to outproduce his 2010 stats and continue to improve as a WR. I’m excited to watch him develop.
"WHEN THE WAGON BLASTER TAKES OFF dont try to get in. THE SPACESES ARE LIMITED FOR WINNING ATTITUDE GODZILLA IS COMING GET READY" - abayarde
by StroudFanClub on Aug 12, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
rec'c
good luck selling Nelson on the edge though, I threw the thought out there last week and it didn’t go very well. The kid is very talented and we can thank the Florida Gators for hiding him for four years.
YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde
by VanScottM on Aug 12, 2011 11:34 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Btw, I think the Giants are a dark horse team to enter the Lee Evans sweepstakes.
abayarde- "All off the pain will vanish The Whagonblaster will return and with a new MOTOR and attitude even BIGGER AND stronger THE EYE of the Tiger , will knock our enemies to the next Galaxy , WE the BUffalo Nation DO not know defeat , We do not know Surrender , We only know that if we fall we get up stronger , faster, better WE have the Technology to BUILD IT"
I'd like to think.....
it is all good. That the Bills know what they are doing. That if they move Lee it is because our young talent is so deep. Maybe Donald Jones is a step faster than we think?
Maybe they trade Lee to keep Easley and Davis?
I am going to try to give them the benefit of the doubt.
You have got to admit, Even a extra 4th and 7th rounder will make the draft more exciting.
Lee is valuable in that is he dependable and very fast. A defnse spreader….In Az. defending Larry Fitzgerald would get a whole lot tougher with Lee; perhaps we can get a 3rd and a 6th? Those picks would allow us to move up if need be…..
gobills!
PodunkO - The great post ender!
extra 4ths and 7ths are definitely exciting on draft day… one weekend a year with a bunch of players you’ve never heard of not making an impact in the nfl… But ya know what’s even more exciting than the thrills of Mel Kiper’s hair not moving??? Winning on Sundays!
Guys coming off 37 catch 500 yd seasons generally don’t fetch a ton on the open market.
by JustAskTheAxis on Aug 12, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
While I don’t like the idea of trading Evans, I will at least admit that I do trust Nix not to take too little for him (like I believe he did with Lynch). If it’s less than a 3rd rounder, I think he’ll turn it down. There’s speculation about some competition for him, so that’s good.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
If that’s the case then I’m probably okay with it – if they’re floating him to see if they can score a 2nd or a couple 3rds or something, then that’s one thing – but if they’re going to dump him for a 5th or something, I’m not really on board.
by JustAskTheAxis on Aug 12, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
No, me either, but I’m trying to trust Nix isn’t that short sighted.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
No, not at all.....
If indeed, our young eecievers are really good, you give them more reps , you allow them to grow you don’t lose one, etc. and on top of it, we get a little something in return.
I’m trying to look at it in the positive vs. the Bills being inept or cheap. I hope it is the positive…..
gobills!
PodunkO - The great post ender!
Bad Idea to trade now...
We could go from a team w/ incredible depth; To what do we have. This is the exact reason why the lockout hurts teams. Its too close to the start of the season and we’ve been practicing for 2 weeks getting in sync w our QB’s and routes. Now they are going to struggle to learn this system without Lee. I just see Stevie getting man handled w double teams and our Offense being lost without their captain. He’s not ready for it…he’ll be blaming God he can’t get the ball. DON’T BREAK UP THE BAND!!!!
I'm posting again!!!!
I can’t believe it…..We finally have a team w/ a lot of promise; More than in the last decade and they want to dismantle our best position for a 3rd round pick. What is OBD thinking? You put the BEST team on the field in order to WIN. WINS= FANS IN THE STANDS.
Enough of the 2 - 3.....
Years crap! Web need one maybe two OTs and a couple of LBs to compete.I also think it is possible to challenge this year. if our tackles stay healthy and mature and our FA LBs stay healthy and a couple other LBs surprise Why the he’ll not? if they trade Lee and then it turns out we needed him badly, then our brass will have screwed us again.
I don’t think nix would trade Lee if nix knows Lee is vital to our offense. if he did that would be downright cruel to the season ticket holders and all the fans. I don’t think he would so….
Gobills!
PodunkO - The great post ender!
just money
only reason….
bills have budget target.
winning is secondary
Evans
Until we have an offensive line that can give Honey Fitz more than .5 seconds to throw the ball it won’t matter if we have the human Flash with super glue on his hands for a wideout. May be short passes allowing the “scats” to dodge their way home is just a better idea.
What I scratch my head about is how much we, as Bills fans, can delude ourselves.
Prior to trading Lee Evans we were a team with massive depth at the receiver position. To me that implies that you can sustain a loss and still produce. Lee Evans gets traded and now we’re staring at question marks when just the previous day we were lauding our depth at the position. I guess I’m naive but if your team is deep you can sustain parting ways with a player or two from that group. It gives you a position of strength to work from and the option to trade out of that to fill another need/luxury.
I guess I’m just not as concerned. Johnson is a large physical specimen and a quality receiver. He was an unknown which gave him an edge last season but we have several unknowns and what’s more dangerous on the field? The proven talent you can double up on or the surprise of not knowing who is going to hit you for a huge game?
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
Lee Evans gets traded and now we’re staring at question marks when just the previous day we were lauding our depth at the position
Lee Evans being part of the WR corps was a big part we thought we had depth there. If you look at them without him, there is very little to be overexcited about, depth wise.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Can't really discount Huggins or Hubbard can we?
Where do they fit in? Is Buster Davis really that much ahead of these guys?
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