OK. I know. I am way ahead of myself right now. Wanting to talk about the draft and the season hasn't even started. I was responding to another post about the draft next year when this thought came to me and wanted to get it out now before i forget about it this season and before the draft next spring.
I wanted to get your thoughts on how the new rookie might impact the draft over the next ten years. Do you think it will increase the number of trades made on draft day? Or do you think it will decrease the number of trades?
Here are my thoughts. A past deterrent for teams that wanted to trade up in the draft was the potential of having to pay significantly more for a guy who may bust (which is a possibility for EVERY player). Now this deterrent is gone. The pay has dropped significantly (mocking the draft had a nice breakdown of the top ten here: www.mockingthedraft.com/2011/7/30/2305689/rookie-wage-scale-hits-2011-draftees-hard)
But this doesn't resolve everything. Certainly buyers (teams moving up) are now more motivated to make a move for a guy that may have previously been out of the price range they were planning for in the first round. But what about the teams selecting in the top ten? or even the top five? I think here is where things will change the most. Now you can get a potentially elite player at a "discount price." All of the benefits of the scale are there for these teams, and they don't even have to trade up to get in this kind of position. Which makes me wonder, Does the value of these early picks increase? Will it start to take more picks to motivate a team to move out of the top ten or top five?
Teams selecting this early generally have more issues than the lack of an elite QB, LT, pass rusher, lock-down Cornerback, etc etc. By demanding more picks as compensation will allow teams to build faster (potentially), which will benefit teams in the rebuilding phase. But these teams will likely miss out on a guy with unique talents.
So other than getting WAAAAAAAAY ahead of myself, what do you think? More moves? more teams staying put? a few "mike-ditka-selling-the-farm-and-the-kitchen-sink" type moves(joking)?