I have been racking my brain for the past few days on how the Bills will do tomorrow/today. I've been reading a lot of blogs and listening to a lot of "experts" talking about how bad we still are and how we will need longer (another year) to improve. We have all heard it and some of us have said it and a lot of us believe it.
But I am a little puzzeled by this because you are coming of a year where a QB threw for over 3,000 yds in 13 games. The Bills threw for 371 yards TOTAL in the other 3!! Yes they gave up 34 sacks last year but 10 of them came in those 3 games without Fitz.
We had a RB who ran for almost 1,000 yds and avg 4.2 yds a carry without starting the seaon as the "featured" RB. (On a personal note I think CJ is going to be very solid this year, more on that a little later......)
And a WR who had over 1,000 yds and avg 13.1 a catch. along with our slot reciever (Parish and Nelson) 64 recs 743 yds 11.6 yd avg.
That kind of production doesn't happen in the NFL without some all around talent on the offense (incld the O line) and a very smart HC and coaching staff to get your guys and there abilities in the best place to succeed.
So as I studied those stats I decided to take a look at the preseaon numbers objectively. Now, before you all get on me and say its only preseason and the games don't matter. I understand that and I agree with you to certain point but there are some interesting things to look at.
For arguments sake we are going to assume that the starters whole preseaon was basically one full game for satistical puposes. I know that this isn't the case but the numbers might interest you and in theory this is when they were playing against the starters.
First of all Fitz. His stats look like this 42 - 26 252 yds 2 Tds 1 Int. If you were to project that for a 16 game schedule thats 62% completion 4,032 yds 32TD's and 16 Ints!!! (would he be considered a francishe QB then????) But one of the more encouraging signs was that through the 4 games the Bills only gave up 8 sacks. But the most suprising thing about that is that Fitz was sacked only ONCE. I didn't look it up but I would imagine that this number is close to the lowest in the league for a guy with 42 attempts, especially for a "bad" O- Line.
Freddy had 85 yds 5.3 avg. That would be good for 1,360 yds for the season. CJ had 63 yds and 4.5 avg. That would work out to 1,008 yds for the season. Not too shabby......
And Stevie had 8 catches for 102 and a TD. That would look like 128 recs. 1,632 yds and 16 TD's.
I know these numbers are fictitious and they will never happen, but I also don't think they are going to be drastically lower(over 50%). This Offense is better than most poeple in the media and public are giving it credit for. The O-Line is by no means perfect but I think they are avg to good and will keep us in most games. They will have ugly moments and when they happen everyone will say I told you so and that we should sign this guy or that guy. But if you look at the overall picture and production I think we are going to be better than average and dare I say sneaky good......
And after all that and comparing it to KC's numbers (which are dreadful....) I don't see how Buffalo doesn't hang with them and at the very least cover the 5.5 point spread, but I think they are going to win 27-17!! Go Bills!!!!