Too Early To Judge Buffalo Bills' Run Defense

by Brian Galliford on Sep 13, 2011 3:45 PM EDT in Buffalo Bills Opinion

In the surge of optimism following the Buffalo Bills' 41-7 win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, one area of the team that I've been reticent to talk about is the run defense, even though I've been asked repeatedly to opine on it.

Here's my opinion, and it hasn't changed an iota since before Week 1: I'm still in wait-and-see mode.

The circumstances of Buffalo's big win made running the football an afterthought for the Chiefs very quickly in the ball game. Jamaal Charles logged his eighth carry of the game during Kansas City's lone scoring drive of the game (which made the score 20-7 in favor of the Bills); he didn't log his ninth carry until the Bills were up 41-7. The Bills grabbed an early lead, which changed Kansas City's game plan so drastically that it's tough to pass initial judgment on anything the Bills did defensively.

What they did do is shave two yards off of the 7.6 yards-per-carry average Charles had posted against them in their last two meetings. Charles still averaged 5.6 yards per carry, however, and the Chiefs averaged six yards per carry as a team. We'll get a better idea of the gains (or lack thereof) the Bills have made against the run this week against Oakland.

In case you were wondering, here's how Charles' carry breakdown occurred in the flow of the game.

Bills lead 7-0
Run 1: 4 yards
Run 2: 3 yards
Run 3: 4 yards
3 carries, 11 yards (3.7 YPC)

Bills lead 14-0
Run 4: 22 yards
Run 5: no gain
Run 6: 2 yards
6 carries, 35 yards (5.8 YPC)

Bills lead 17-0
Run 7: 3 yards, fumble lost
7 carries, 38 yards (5.4 YPC), 1 fumble lost

Bills lead 20-0
Run 8: 14 yards
8 carries, 52 yards (6.5 YPC), 1 fumble lost

Bills lead 41-7
Run 9: 5 yards
Run 10: -1 yard
10 carries, 56 yards (5.6 YPC), 1 fumble lost

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I know it's too early

But honestly, those numbers look fine. He had two big runs, one of which was on the big scoring drive. But other than that, his yards were rather pedestrian. The more important thing to look at is the number of drives that stalled due to the run defense, and it looks like quite a few early ones stalled partially because of the run defense. I’ll take that.

But overall, I definitely agree that we need to see how we do against a team that commits to the run early and often. I think the Raiders will do just that, as I don’t think we’ll be able to beat them like we beat the Chiefs, so their game plan should conceivably stay relatively constant with regard to running the ball.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Sep 13, 2011 3:49 PM EDT reply actions

Charles always averages well (look at last years game logs). The issue is does he kill you. And in this game — he didn’t. He put up 9 YPC on the ravens in a playoff game, but they couldn’t get first downs consistently and they got throttled by the Ravens D. To me this is equivalent, he had a few solid rusn that helped his average (but didn’t bust wide open).

In general he was well-contained and couldnt be relied on to get them to 3rd and short. I think the run breakdown does a nice job showing that.

It’s never too early to be optimistic!

I have low expectations. But high hopes.

by greysquirrel on Sep 13, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

The pleasing thing is how many carries were 4 yards and under. 70% of them were. 4 yards or under is generally acceptable for a run D. Anything 3 or under on a carry is very good and we did that on 50% of the plays. That with no huge gains (ie long TD’s or 40 + yard runs) makes a decent outing.

The only problem though as Brian alludes to is the very small sample size.

#99 Mount Doom Dareus

by Will G on Sep 14, 2011 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions

just a side note brian pretty much every post you have done had bills 41 chiefs 7 in the header please put that back up there

also from what i could tell is when we got into the lead it looked like we were expecting pass every play so the counters and draws worked better than they should have

. Nobody and I mean Nobody circles the Wagon Blasters like our Buffalo Bills. The Wagon is coming to collect your soul.-abayarde

by Gpluehri on Sep 13, 2011 4:07 PM EDT reply actions

This is a perfect example of how stats can be misleading. If you were to look at total yards gained on the ground, you might surmise that the Bills played exceptional run D. You might draw the opposite conclusion if you looked at average yards per carry.

This is similar to how many uneducated people point to the Bills having a top 3 pass defense last season. That stat is very misleading because teams didn’t have to pass on the Bills to move the ball. Offensive and defensive rankings are based on yardage, not points, so sometimes they have t be taken with a grain of salt.

Stats aside, the defense forced three and outs at early and the offense took advantage of turn overs and great field position. That’s how the rout occurred.

Regardless, the defense did what it needed to, if they keep it up, things will be gravy.

"It’s like I’ve always said, don’t tell me about the labor pains, just show me the baby."
- Buddy Nix

"How can a guy with a name like Melo be such a pain in the ass?"
- George Lopez

by dnvrBillsfan on Sep 13, 2011 4:08 PM EDT reply actions

Stats aside, the defense forced three and outs early

This is the key, most definitely. Charles, despite his YPC (which was mainly acquired after the Bills were leading by quite a bit), he did not take charge of the game or extend a lot of drives himself.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Sep 13, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

(which were mainly acquired after the Bills were leading by quite a bit)

Exactly.

If I’m correct, the long runs that were surrendered were long yardage situations where KC ran draws. Not saying that it’s ok to get beaten by the draw routinely but it isn’t as if the Bills were getting pushed around and having the ball pounded at them for long gains. The defense looked like they were consistently in position to make plays which wasn’t the case last season.

"It’s like I’ve always said, don’t tell me about the labor pains, just show me the baby."
- Buddy Nix

"How can a guy with a name like Melo be such a pain in the ass?"
- George Lopez

by dnvrBillsfan on Sep 13, 2011 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Stats aside, the defense forced three and outs at early

And prevented K.C. from converting on 3rd downs. If I recall correctly, the Chiefs were 3-13 on 3rd down plays. That is an effective defense.

by PineWoodsBillsFan on Sep 13, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs

Rec'd

If I recall correctly, the Chiefs were 3-13 on 3rd down plays. That is an effective defense.

Enough said. Now as Chan is always saying,“You’ve got to be consistent.”

Victory is OURS THE WAGON BLASTER IS FULL FORCE DELTA SQUADRON- abayarde

by Byrdeputt on Sep 13, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Stats aside

Haha, nope, that would just be the 3rd-down def. efficiency stat! :-)

Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin. -- stetzwebs
No one circles the waiver wire like the Buffalo Bills!

by thefourwinds on Sep 13, 2011 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions

yes

usually it would be more like 10 – 13 on 3rd down, so this is a huge improvement !

#99 Mount Doom Dareus

by Will G on Sep 14, 2011 3:03 AM EDT up reply actions

What was nice to see was not giving up 6-8 yards consistently. There were a couple longer runs, but overall the success rate of the defense was better than it has been.

by Pistol on Sep 13, 2011 4:14 PM EDT reply actions

Not to highjack or change the subject, but I veiw screen plays as run plays(maybe I’m way off base,idk) and it seemed like every screen they ran went for a loss, That excites me a little.

by cencalclassics on Sep 13, 2011 4:49 PM EDT reply actions

We'll know a lot more after this week...

if last night is any indication, the Raiders wont be throwing much.

by TrufflePig on Sep 13, 2011 4:58 PM EDT reply actions

Yards per carry average is misleading.

36 of his 56 yards came on 2 carries. Which means the other 8 carries went for 20 yards – less than three yards per. Last year Charles torched the bills D for 177 yards on 22 carries.

My sense of it is is that the Bills run defense HAS improved but we’re still gonna see some “growing pains” breakdowns, i.e. good backs will break a few open for big gains once and a while. This is going to hurt the yards per carry average at times and on paper it will look like the run defense is worse than it really is. I suspect McFadden will have a very similar game on Sunday. He’s gonna get stuffed most of the day, but he’s gonna get away 2 or 3 times.

by The Adam Bomb on Sep 13, 2011 5:07 PM EDT reply actions

Michael Bush

is a very different back though. If we stuff the shiftier McFadden expect to see more of the bruiser in Michael Bush. If he stop both of them it will be impressive and show that we can succeed vs speed and power backs.

#99 Mount Doom Dareus

by Will G on Sep 14, 2011 3:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Easy game to enjoy...

… but a tough one to make any judgements based on.

The Bills jumping to a 20-0 lead took the running game away from the Chiefs. It wasn’t as though the Chiefs tried to establish it, and the Bills stopped it.

Great win, but the game situation – field position, time of possession, score and time remaining – favored the Bills from the moment Sheppard jumped on the fumble on the opening kickoff.

We need to see them in a game with a more typical ebb and flow before making any judgements we might be embarrassed by later.

by Brian in Shortsville on Sep 13, 2011 6:53 PM EDT reply actions

Best thing about the game was we .............

……. didn’t get shredded by the TE.
Good thing their stud was on IR.
Good thing the Raiders let their stud go.

We won’t have that consolation in week 3. That’s gonna be a b&tch.

"There is not a loser in this room." Marv Levy.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Sep 13, 2011 7:18 PM EDT reply actions

Week 3 will also not be against an opponent coming off a short week and traveling 3 time zones east.

Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin. -- stetzwebs
No one circles the waiver wire like the Buffalo Bills!

by thefourwinds on Sep 13, 2011 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions

As Hank Stram was ....

quoted as saying, “I just want my fair advantage.”

an opponent coming off a short week and traveling 3 time zones east.

When asked about handling his former boss in his own stadium, Gailey conceded, "It feels good ... you’re lying if you say it doesn’t." - TWHS

by Byrdeputt on Sep 13, 2011 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Best thing....

coming away from this weekend, even though only the first game, the Bills are #3 in total defense….

Guess who is # 23, 31 and 32???

Optimistic??? Of course I am!! I'm a Bills fan, and as of right now, we are undefeated on the regular season!!!
Things are truly looking up!!!

by Cinga on Sep 13, 2011 7:47 PM EDT reply actions

Haha, the rest of the AFC East?

Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin. -- stetzwebs
No one circles the waiver wire like the Buffalo Bills!

by thefourwinds on Sep 13, 2011 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Link?

Lurking and Trolling; it's what I do...

by Chazjr on Sep 13, 2011 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I was just guessing. I have no idea.

Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin. -- stetzwebs
No one circles the waiver wire like the Buffalo Bills!

by thefourwinds on Sep 13, 2011 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Hence, the “?”

Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin. -- stetzwebs
No one circles the waiver wire like the Buffalo Bills!

by thefourwinds on Sep 13, 2011 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Dolphins should be ranked #33 after that effort !

#99 Mount Doom Dareus

by Will G on Sep 14, 2011 3:06 AM EDT up reply actions

did you see the props from Peter King

He did a nice right up on the Bills and Fitz, over on SI.com

Peter KIng: “I told you the Bills are dangerous”

We have a long ways to go but, I think the team is expecting to win instead of trying not to lose.

Run Defense will get a test against Oakland, hopefully they will be up for the challenge.

by bills56 on Sep 13, 2011 8:32 PM EDT reply actions

I think the bigger story is the limited number of carries for Charles. Because of the early lead, KC was forced to air it out. In this case the best defense was literally our good offense.

by Morningw00d on Sep 14, 2011 12:38 AM EDT reply actions

The Bills grabbed an early lead, which changed Kansas City’s game plan so drastically that it’s tough to pass initial judgment on anything the Bills did defensively.

Which, in itself is not a bad way at all to help your run D.

by billskk69 on Sep 14, 2011 12:59 PM EDT reply actions