Bills vs. Patriots Key Matchups: Run And Stop The Run

by Brian Galliford on Sep 24, 2011 1:01 PM EDT in Buffalo Bills Opinion

Tomorrow's Week 3 showdown between the undefeated Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots features the league's most prolific offense (New England) and the league's most prolific scoring offense (Buffalo). Those units are headlined by quarterbacks Tom Brady and Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the passing games get most of the publicity.

How those offenses do running the football, however, may be the bigger key to victory.

Brady has been terrific against Buffalo over the years - in 13 games played during "the streak," he's thrown for 3,190 yards, 34 touchdowns and six interceptions. New England's rushing offense has been nearly as impressive during their 15-game winning streak, however, averaging 145.5 yards on the ground per game and eclipsing 200 yards three times (including twice last season). Buffalo has held the Patriots under 100 rushing yards just four times during the streak.

This season, despite Brady's aerial prowess (940 passing yards in two games), the Pats are still averaging 100 yards on the ground as a team, placing them directly in the middle of the league. Their offense has been Brady's ship for the last decade, but since 2003, they've only ranked outside of the top dozen rushing teams in the league twice, and have cracked the Top 10 three times.

Last year, New England's top two runners, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead, ran for 337 yards - at 6.6 yards per carry - and scored three touchdowns in two Patriots wins. Stopping Brady is difficult enough, but the Bills have rarely had success stopping New England's running game this decade, either - and stopping a balanced Brady offense is the most difficult thing to do in the NFL.

On the other side of the field, the Bills currently have the NFL's No. 1-ranked rushing offense, cranking out an absurd 193 rushing yards per game. Those efforts have been paced by NFL rushing leader Fred Jackson, who has rushed for 229 yards and two scores at 6.5 yards per carry this season.

Bill Belichick has long been described in league circles as the type of coach that likes to analyze an opponent, find out what they do best, and take that player away on game days. He's also long had a healthy respect for Jackson's abilities on the field. Right now, the Bills are literally the best - and Jackson is too - at running the football. Ergo, expect Belichick to try to take that away from the Bills tomorrow afternoon.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been at his best in Buffalo when the running game is clicking and there's balance. That's true of any quarterback, but it's exacerbated a bit for Fitzpatrick, who is largely excellent when the offense is in balance, and largely pedestrian when it isn't. Buffalo will need to score a lot of points in this game, and that will require balance offensively. It's imperative that they continue to run the football effectively in Week 3.

Tweet Comment 24 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I respect what you're saying Brian

But I think ultimately the team that throws the ball the best wins. I think the Bills should not only prepare for but game plan to throw the ball a tremendous about. In fact I would do what the Patriots do often which is throw the ball without running for the first couple of series. Not to try to beat them at their own game, but to establish that’s what we do excellent too. The very first offensive down I would throw deep. I don’t think they can stop our passing game. I think this type of aggression (in theory, obviously we have to execute) would not only put the Patriots in a defensive position but is also gives us a chance to dictate. Then I would run to demoralize. I’m not saying this will happen, but I think this should be our game plan. Teams have been programmed for good reason to always react to the Patriots dictation, to beat them we must do it to them.

by As Smart as I Look on Sep 24, 2011 1:15 PM EDT reply actions

What I’m saying is that the team that throws the ball the best will have the best balance offensively. Hence the focus on the running game.

Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford

by Brian Galliford on Sep 24, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand. I just think the focus should be on an unbalanced attack through the air. Therefore being the team that dictates. I think if we plan to throw more than them we’ll have the formula to beat them. I think if we plan for a balanced attack with throw the ball best (effeciency) , we lose decisively. They are better at this than we are.

by As Smart as I Look on Sep 24, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t agree with that argument at all. The best way to dictate is to be balanced; then you’ve got your whole playbook open to you.

Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
@BrianGalliford

by Brian Galliford on Sep 24, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly.

Our star corner has done fairly poorly against large receivers, but he’s much more likely to be assigned a smaller one tomorrow(Johnson or Jones). Unlike last year, we have taller cornerbacks(Dowling, Bodden, Molden) who can be matched up more effectively against the impressive-looking Nelson/Chandler. We may have some issues in the secondary, but going pass-only is a fool’s adventure. A balanced attack is the only way to keep a defense on their toes, especially when it comes to their pass-rush.

Problem is if Haynesworth and Wilfork are both playing, side by side, the Bills will likely have to think about focusing left or right in the run game as the middle becomes no man’s land. This game, like most others, will be won in the trenches. We’ll know soon if Haynesworth is actually playing(expect him to) by whether or not he makes the trip with the team. Say what you will about him but with Wilfork next to him they make quite the imposing 700 lbs. wall.

It is what it is

by Middlesex on Sep 24, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Say what you will about him but with Wilfork next to him they make quite the imposing 700 lbs. wall.

True dat.

"There is not a loser in this room." Marv Levy.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Sep 24, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Wood has handled

Wilfork before when he wasn’t at full strength so I can’t say that’s scares me at all… As for Big Al, unless he’s been sandbaggin’ it, what’s the problem? Does anyone really think he is suddenly gonna become a real NFL DT again tomorrow?

The way our interior has been playing, that 700 lbs doesn’t bother me in the least… The only pressure on Fitz is gonna come from somewhere else, if at all… Yeah, BB might try to cook something up, but unless we lose half our O line, and TEs in the course of the game, we’ll adjust as needed…

Optimistic??? Of course I am!! I'm a Bills fan, and as of right now, we are undefeated on the regular season!!!
Things are truly looking up!!!

by Cinga on Sep 24, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

The bills can win this game if it becomes a shoot out. They might win it 45-42 but they will never beat the pats in a game by holding them to a low score, it’s just next to impossible. IMO.

by Markussh on Sep 24, 2011 1:18 PM EDT reply actions

I think you're close to being on point except

we can’t let it become a shoot out. We have to make it one and do it better than they do. And I’m not saying that as a beat our chest rah rah statement. I’m saying teams do not dictate to the Patriots and that’s why they are great. The teams that have won. I’m certainly not saying we can or we will. I’m saying to win that’s what we have to execute.

by As Smart as I Look on Sep 24, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I would disagree. If we control the tempo with a balanced offensive attack. . .

Then we will be in the game at the end. That’s what good teams do at home. If we get into it with Brady and we make a mistake? That could be game. Fred and CJ are the key to this game. IF we run for about 130 with no more than one turnover, then I think we will be in it in the fourth Qtr.

by twissyjujub on Sep 24, 2011 2:12 PM EDT reply actions

What do you think happens if we take chunks off the closk with a balanced attack, don’t score, and Brady jumps on you quick? To me it leaves you less time to catch up. And from everything we’ve seen from their offense, that is likely. I’m for coming out firing right away with the mindset that we know we have to shoot it out with you and we’re prepared to do it.

by As Smart as I Look on Sep 24, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand the concept. . . But I’m hoping our defense is pumped for this game. I’d like to think that our offense being on the field for large chunks of time is a good thing for them. Less Brady on the field is a good thing.

by twissyjujub on Sep 24, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

exactly!!!

keep the defense as fresh as possible… Let the offense be methodical on their drives and play mistake free….
If the D can stay fresh, I think they will find a chink in the pats O line and have a chance to rattle Brady….

Optimistic??? Of course I am!! I'm a Bills fan, and as of right now, we are undefeated on the regular season!!!
Things are truly looking up!!!

by Cinga on Sep 24, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Kyle Williams against a backup Center?

Hoping for a career day from Meatball and Dareus!!!

by twissyjujub on Sep 24, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

That's the matchup that worries me.

SD’s nosetackle nearly destroyed Brady’s knee last week.

It is what it is

by Middlesex on Sep 24, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

That's an old theory.

I think that’s the old school way to win a football game. Run the ball, control the clock, keep the defense off the field, etc. But I’m sorry I don’t think that works against the Patriots. In fact the NFL as a whole has transformed to passing first. The old theories of running to set up the pass are becoming old hat. I especially think that’s true against Brady. Come out throwinga bunch, execute, and score. Run the ball in greater percentages later to close the game.

by As Smart as I Look on Sep 24, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions

We're gonna have to agree to disagree.

Execute and score. . .yes. Throw a bunch? No. Either way Go Bills!

by twissyjujub on Sep 24, 2011 2:35 PM EDT reply actions

Be honest

Not much works against the pats… This is the deal you dont plan to “rattle” brady because it doesn’t happen. I’ve NEVER seen him rattled. Frustrated? Maybe, but not rattled. He can beat you long and short. The reason the pats are so good, especially on offense is because they keep evolving.

So… I say this take away the parts, the tight ends the other guys who can get rattled. Get in ochos head. Play smart sound defense and yes be diverse offensively but you gotta let Freddy get his hands on the rock no doubt. As much as Fitz is a gamer I don’t think he wins the shoot out right now. Everyone has to be clicking including fitz.

They can win but they have to play smart on both sides of the ball all four quarters.

by Doctor Huge Pecs on Sep 24, 2011 3:06 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

I agree to a point...

yes, ANY QB can be rattled, even Tommy Boy…. But your right about taking away his toys too. Have to hit his receivers, hard and often enough that they start to hear footsteps, and make mistakes…

Optimistic??? Of course I am!! I'm a Bills fan, and as of right now, we are undefeated on the regular season!!!
Things are truly looking up!!!

by Cinga on Sep 24, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

It's possible

I just wouldn’t count on itor gameplan around it.

by Doctor Huge Pecs on Sep 24, 2011 3:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I'd be rattled if I saw Meatball and Darius staring at me....

….. while drooling and frothing at the mouth. The whole time making me feel like a large pizza.

"There is not a loser in this room." Marv Levy.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Sep 24, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Ha!!!!

but a pizza is too masculine… Let’s hypnotize them to think Brady is a candy cane!!!

Optimistic??? Of course I am!! I'm a Bills fan, and as of right now, we are undefeated on the regular season!!!
Things are truly looking up!!!

by Cinga on Sep 24, 2011 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

How about a giant box of 50 Cannolies then!
Made at your favorite local Italian bakery shop.

Damn I miss living at home. :-(

"There is not a loser in this room." Marv Levy.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Sep 24, 2011 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

THE ONLY WAY POSSIBLE WE ARE GONNA WIN!!

Same way the Browns beat them, ,in New England and thats by putting brady on his ass.
thats how the jets and raves beat them as well>>>>>>
we need to play perfect in order to beat these guys!!

by Kgun81 on Sep 25, 2011 12:03 AM EDT reply actions